Delay done, Black...
The news that former U.S. House majority leader Tom Delay plans to leave Congress following months of scandal prompted some local writers to compare the Texas Republican to North Carolina House Speaker Jim Black. (Black is a Democrat for those who have not followed along.) Examples of that from Doug Clark and Patrick Eaks.
(Meanwhile, Guilford County Republican John Blust has written to say that he thinks Black should step down. Members of Black's own party have said the same thing.)
In some ways the Delay analogy is apt.
In both cases, a powerful legislative leader is coming under scrutiny for their efforts to retain and bolster control of legislative institutions. Both are long-time members of their institutions (Delay began serving in the U.S. House in 1985, Black is serving his 10th term in the state House.) Both men are know for their ability to line up the party faithful for important votes - although Delay's personal styles is reportedly a lot more caustic than Black's.
But I would suggest that we're not going to see how similar the two cases are until this fall's elections. On a national level, Democrats hope that Delay's problems will tar the entire Republican party. North Carolina Republicans are hoping the state's Democrats experience the same effect from Black's problems.
Some folks have suggested that we'll see Delay and Black cancel each other out here in North Carolina. If voters decide "aw, heck, they're all bums," you may see middle of the road voters stay home and the election will become a game of which party can turn out their core supporters.
At this point, I'm guessing (and that's all you can really do right now) that it's going to be more of a district-by-district thing. If there's a solid Republican candidate, Black's troubles may bring the GOP challenger some votes.
However, no one is going to get away with a campaign that just says "My opponent is bad because they're associated with Jim Black." The latest Elon Poll says that Black is still far from a universally known name in North Carolina, so challengers better have a platform along with their outrage.
However, the Jim Black issue might swing some percentage of voters - especially if the Democrat and Republican are at least within the same ballpark on other issues voters care about. If nothing else, the Speaker's troubles might help convince those who typically vote straight party tickets to apply some thought in legislative races.
The other effect the Black stories may have is to shore up support for Republican incumbents. The argument to throw out someone who has served in the opposition caucus (Republicans) probably gets a little harder when the majority party (Democrats) are dealing with a scandal.
Of course, while the primaries are in May this year, it's a good eight months until the November elections. That's a lot of time for things to change. Black and Delay could be completely overshadowed by the time voters are actually heading to the polls.