News-Record.com

There was a good story in the Charlotte paper today about Speaker Black’s fund raising prowess (Reg. may be required) and how House Democrats may not be able to rely on their leader for campaign funding this year.

Here are a few observations from my end:

• The fact that the Democrats aren’t raising as much money as in years past won’t mean much if they can still vastly outspend Democratic candidates. In what some argue should be the most competitive House district in Guilford County, incumbent Democrat Pricey Harrison reported $55,123.59 on hand at the beginning of July, versus Republican challenger Ron Styer’s $2,200, both of those figures from revised 2Q reports. Styers has the making of a pretty polished candidate, but a 25:1 fund raising advantage does favor Harrison, to say the least. You find parallels to that fund raising advantage throughout the Triad and throughout the state.
• There has been much talk of this being a “Blue Moon” election, one in which there isn’t a presidential, U.S. Senate or other statewide office – aside from the nonpartisan races for judicial seats – at the top of the ticket to motivate voters to come out or vote in one direction or the other. Because of this, a lot of the outcome is going to depend on turnout. And while money can help with turnout, there are a lot of intangibles involved too. How many volunteers will a party have knocking on doors or giving rides to the polls or just talking up the election? How many voters on either side will just stay home because their fed up or be extra-motivate because, well, they’re just fed up? That stuff doesn’t show up on a campaign finance report.
• House Democratic candidates aren’t exactly broke as a collective. Nor is the state party. If there are one or two races that get really nasty (and you know there will be), expect the money to flow. And there are plenty of folks in the Democratic caucus who want to take Black’s place as Speaker next year. If any of those can play the knight in shiny armor to a cash-strapped fellow Democrat’s campaign this year, they’d be making a case for themselves.