Cook-ing the numbers
National Journal writer Charlie Cook held court at Elon University today – thanks to the folks at Elon’s Political Science Department for inviting me – talking mainly about the upcoming Congressional elections.
Cook, for those who don’t know, is one the foremost nonpartisan pollsters and analysts in the country. Here’s some of what he had to say (after the jump):
- His and other polls point to what he called “a wave” of potential losses for Congressional Republicans. About 44 seats were readily in play, he said, with another dozen or more potentially in the mix. He said the trends were very similar to the 1994 wave that brought Republicans to power in the House. While this wave by no means guarantees Democrats retaking power in Washington, it points to an election year that is out of the ordinary.
- Despite the Democratic-trending wave, North Carolina is not a terribly interesting state for national Congressional watchers, he said. Only the 11th Congressional District, where embattled Republican Charles Taylor is facing Democrat and former football star Heath Schuler, rates as a competitive race in Cook’s mind. “As far as I’m concerned, there’s only one (Congressional) race in the state, the eleventh.”
- When asked about the high-volume 13th district, which features Republican Vernon Robinson and Democrat Brad Miller, Cook said: “Nobody whose focus is to control the House is paying attention to that one.”
- He also was not high on Democrat Larry Kissel’s chances of unseating Republican incumbent Robin Hayes, allowing only that if the Democratic wave reached its maximum potential on Election Day Kissel may ride the crest of it. Keep in mind, all of that is based on polling data, gathered and crunched in Washington.
- Sen. Elizabeth Dole, a North Carolina Republican and chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has been getting some bad press over her group’s relatively low fundraising achievements and some slipping poll numbers of high profile candidates. Cook said don’t be to hasty to judge Dole. “The reasons Republicans have big problems in the Senate are some things that are absolutely beyond Elizabeth Dole’s and the Republican Senatorial Committee’s control,” Cook said. Among the problems, Republican Senator Conrad Burns of Montana berating firefighters for their work on a wildfire in his state and a Washington state candidate’s prior arrest for DUI.
Here’s one additional bit of take-home from Cook’s talk. I asked him whether national political trends tended to affect stat legislative elections one way or the other. Now, Cook is not a state legislative expert, but he did have this to say:
“What happens when you see these big mid-term election shifts, it means that one side’s voters are really energized, they’re just loaded for bear. And the other side’s voters are despondent and they vote in lower numbers…What partisans do in mid-terms years is a lot more important than in presidential (years).”
Why could this be particularly important in North Carolina? Because it looks like die-hards on both sides are pretty cheesed off for different reasons.
Democrats are fighting mad over President Bush, Hurricane Katrina and the Jack Abramoff-related highjinks of Congressional Republicans.
In turn, Republicans are mad about what they see about the corrupt practices of state House Speaker Jim Black, a Democrat.
That could mean that Democrats have given Republicans a sand bar to break the force of the national wave. And that may be what Cook’s polling is picking up when it show the 11th as the only really competitive race in the state.
What that means for General Assembly races is less clear.
Much of the talk in state-level political circles has been over whether Republicans can take a majority in the state House. That’s despite all the internecine stuff between the Morgan and Pope factions of the party.
But if Cook is right, the election swings largely on who stays mad – or gets madder – over the next couple months. If Republicans loose some fire – or have their moods dampened by things on the national stage – it could be just as reasonable to talk about Democrats potentially padding their majority by a seat or two, despite the Black saga.
To be clear: I don’t think we’re to that point yet. Even the possibility of having that conversation seems remarkable to me. But if you buy into the polling data and conventional wisdom of how these things work it’s a road that’s at least on the map.
All of which should make for a very interesting next 60-odd days.