Timetables and voters
The Elon University Poll released a set of data on President Bush and his job approval rating Monday. (News release // Raw data.)
The over-arching theme was that Bush still struggles in job approval, largely because of the Iraq issue.
A couple of questions lower down in the data set caught my attention. They basically asked if respondents would oppose or favor setting timetables for withdrawal from Iraq.
As a group, poll respondents answered that they would favor timetables, well over 60 percent in each case.
This question interested me for a few reasons. First, it's become quite the issue in the presidential race, particularly on the Democratic side. Also, it has been a notion that President Bush has pushed back hard against.
So I got to wondering was whether there was a strong partisan difference the aggregate data didn't reflect. Did Democrats overwhelmingly support a timetable and Republicans overwhelmingly oppose one?
Well, Hunter Bacot, who runs the poll was nice enough to cross-tab this question out for me. You can see that raw cross tab by clicking here.
As I suspected, there were some differences between Republicans and Democrats, especially when you look at the withdrawal by 2008 question. Still, 44 percent of Republicans said they would support or strongly support setting a timetable for with drawl by 2008.
But look at the 2009 question: 56 percent of Republicans in the survey said they would support or strongly support setting a timetable for with drawl by 2009.
What does this tell us? A few things, I think:
- * Republicans, particularly the rank and file, are not in lock step on the Iraq issue. Not all are following the President's line and many are willing to entertain the idea of a timetable even if the commander in chief is not.
- * While Republicans want to give things a bit longer to work, their patience is not infinite. While a majority don't think a 2008 timetable is a good idea, a majority think a plan to get out by 2009 is.
- * With 75 percent or more of Democrats favoring a timetable for withdrawal, whoever the Dems find to run against Sen. Elizabeth Dole next year should be talking about Iraq early in often, not only in the primary but also the general election.