News-Record.com

Here's today's story on the race in the N.C. 6th Congressional District, a seat currently held by Republican Howard Coble. (They' yacking about this story at the Debatables blog as well.)) The more straightforward handicapping goes something like this:

• *Coble is a formidable incumbent. He's been in office since 1984 and it has been since the 1990 election that he has garnered less than 70 percent of the vote in the general election. He has a boat-load of money in the bank, fairly positive name recognition in the district and a district drawn to favor Republicans.
• *Taking out Coble will probably require three things: a strong challenger, some national political trends rolling against him (like anti-incumbent sentiment) and Coble shooting himself in the foot somehow.
• *Among the three potential challengers so far for 2008, Jay Ovittore probably gets front-runner status. That's because he's relatively well known by Greensboro's political community and us scruffy media types. He's been president of the local Young Democrats chapter and has worked for Rep. Pricey Harrison. He also has, by far, the most robust web presence and a ready-made online community that will help him out. (Of course, this being Greensboro, he has some instant detractors as well.
• *Johnny Carter, of Summerfield, seems earnest enough. He was the first person to officially announce they were taking on Coble this year. (He actually works for the company that does Coble's plumbing.) On the phone, he seems perfectly nice and capable. From his websites, some of his positions - like backing universal healthcare - will appeal to Democratic primary voters. Other positions, like his take on immigration and his thesis on religion in public life probably lose him votes, at least in the central-Greensboro part of the district.
• *David Crawford, registered to run in the City Council election against Mike Barber and then dropped out. I'll let you read his Myspace page for yourself.

So the early betting, unless someone else jumps in, would say Coble will most like face Ovittore come the general election. I know Jay a little bit and am convinced he will work like H-E-double-hockey-sticks. I also know Coble a little bit, and he does not plan on giving up his seat without a fight and right now the district's fundamentals favor him.

The question is whether any Democrat can overcome those fundamentals this year.