News-Record.com

The state budget dance will formally begin Tuesday when Gov. Bev Perdue unveils her tax and spending proposal.

Already we've seen the preliminary handkerchief waving, bowing and pleasantries that go along with the beginning of any cotillion. The honorables have been reading up on various sections of the state budget in committee meetings while getting briefed on how bad the revenue picture really is.

Meanwhile, Perdue has been telling anyone who will listen how "tough" the choices she's going to have to make are. Her senior budget staffer even briefed us scruffy media types on the fiscal picture last week.

After Perdue makes her opening move, the action shifts to the legislature like this:

• * The Senate will take a crack at writing the budget first this year.
• * After the Senate passes its version, the House will get a shot at writing it and almost certainly put their own stamp on it.
• * The House, Senate and governor's office negotiate until a final budget is put before the honorables.

All along the way, updated tax revenue figures, breaking news, and the odd policy priority that bubbles to the surface shapes the final product. While some changes are big and thematic – what percent raise will teachers get, if any or how much money will be put into the mental health care system – often the fiercest battles are fought over the smaller pots of money.

For those small programs, such as support for the High Point Furniture Market, inclusion in the governor’s budget is a golden ticket to the final round of budget negotiations. And it’s a good bet those golden tickets will be harder to come by than a Wonka Bar at a health food convention this year.

Perdue has been giving different glimpses of her budget over the past week. Gov. Mike Easley used to do this sort of thing, putting out pieces of his budget agenda in advance to make sure they got media attention before putting out the entire thing, when reporters would start asking pesky questions about how he might pay for all those goodies.

As Laura Leslie notes at her blog, this isn't a half-bad idea since the stories written tomorrow will all be about which programs are getting slashed or who is getting taxed to balance the budget.

So what do we know of Perdue's budget priorities so far? The summary is this:

• * This afternoon she'll talk about her education spending plans, but she already said in the state of the state address that she wants to increase per pupil spending.

• * Over the weekend, Perdue released an audio statement on the National Guard, which seems to have gone missing from her web site. In it, she said that she would propose spending $2 million for National Guard family assistance centers and more from other programs, such as one that helps the children of national guard soldier cope with their parents' deployments.

• * Last week, she pledged to spend millions on beefing up the probation and parole system, where officials have admitted they can't keep track of all the offenders they should.

• * In another address last week, Perdue outlined economic development priorities that included raising the earned income tax credit, creating a tax exemption for small businesses and spending millions on job creation and recruitment programs.

Left unsaid so far is how Perdue plans to pay for all of this while tamping down a budget shortfall expected to be in the $2 billion range.

Undoubtedly, Perdue will have to make cuts in other areas and she has been gathering suggestions on what those might be. And while few expect she'll propose a broad-based tax hike such as a sales tax increase, taxes on alcohol and tobacco will almost certainly be proposed.

Whatever she does when she finally lifts the curtain tomorrow, prepare for much rending of clothing, beating of chests and gnashing of teeth.