News-Record.com

The Elon University Poll just put out its latest two-day cycle of data, and in their news release today played up this question:

I'm going to read you three statements, and, after I read all three, I'd like for you to tell me which statement comes closest to your position on this issue:

[(#1) I oppose any legal recognition for same sex couples,

(#2) I support civil unions or partnerships for same sex couples, but not full marriage rights, or

(#3) I support full marriage rights for same sex couples].

Whether or not to put a constitutional amendment on same sex marriage before the voters has been a topic before the General Assembly. The Elon Poll reported the following results on the question:

(#1) OPPOSE ANY LEGAL RECOGNITION FOR SAME SEX COUPLES 44.4

(#2) SUPPORT CIVIL UNIONS OR PARTNERSHIPS FOR SAME
SEX COUPLES, BUT NOT FULL RIGHTS 27.5

(#3) FULL MARRIAGE RIGHTS FOR SAME SEX COUPLES 20.8

OPPOSE ALL ASPECTS OF THE SAME SEX MARRIAGE (v) 1.5

OPPOSE SAME SEX MARRIAGE ON RELIGIOUS GROUNDS (v) 1.0

DON'T REALLY CARE ABOUT IT, DOESN T BOTHER ME (v) 1.7

DON'T KNOW (v) 2.8

REFUSED (v) .4

(My gut reaction is the "Don't really care" answer rate would be higher if it were offered as an initial response choice.)

The Elon Poll results seemingly conflicts with those gathered from a recent Civitas Poll. The Civitas Institute is a conservative think tank and has sent representatives to news conferences supporting a gay marriage ban. It asked about gay marriage this way:

North Carolina is the only state in the Southeast that does not have a constitutional amendment defining marriage as between one man and woman. Do you support or oppose a constitutional amendment in North Carolina defining marriage as between one man and one woman?

Support 76%

Oppose 21%

Not Sure 4%

Refused >1%

For those who may be wondering, I'm told the more liberal-leaning PPP hasn't put out public numbers on the topic.

Elon also asked a roughly analogous question to Civitas - "Would you [support or oppose] an amendment to the North Carolina constitution that would prevent any same sex marriages?" - respondents remained split: with a little more than half opposing a constitutional amendment and about 40 percent supporting one. Civitas was up at 76 percent. So what gives?

Both polls seemingly did a good job get a broad spectrum of the population, although I think it's possible that the Civitas Poll's question 27 regarding political philosophy may reflect some over-sampling. (The party affiliation question, #30, is spot on with what I'd expect to see, though.)

Remember, Elon didn't preface its question with information about other states. It definitely seems like the wording of the question might have gotten in the way of replicable results here. Put crudely: The Civitas questions established a norm by referring to other states and there’s a pretty good body of research that shows poll respondents like to seem “normal” to those asking the question.

Elon also allowed people to express a middle path on both their questions. As with a lot of political issues, you have die-hards on either side and then folks who are willing to trod the middle road.