News-Record.com

From our friends at the AP:

RALEIGH (AP) — The state Board of Elections has agreed to certify House Speaker Jim Black as the winner over Hal Jordan in state House District 100.

Update:And now, more from the Associated Press:

The state Board of Elections unanimously agreed Tuesday to certify House Speaker Jim Black as the winner in his unexpectedly close re-election race against Republican challenger Hal Jordan.

Black, one of the Legislature's most powerful Democrats, led Jordan in the Charlotte-area district by 30 votes — 5,340 votes to 5,310 — after last week's recount. The board agreed that it had found nothing to indicate that the margin wouldn't hold up despite voting problems in one voting precinct.

Jordan said after board's vote he would decide within the next two days whether to appeal the ruling to Superior Court, but he agreed it appeared that he had fallen short in his bid to unseat the Mecklenburg County Democrat.

"The math says I would have fallen short by more than 100 votes," Jordan said.

In a way, Black’s apparent victory is good news for Democrats looking to move beyond his troubled past couple years as Speaker.

That’s because Democratic leaders haven’t been willing to get together and talk about who will be Speaker next year until all the races for the next House session were settled. Black’s was one of those races.

If Jordan doesn’t appeal, this will clear the way for the Dems to get together and at least begin talking formally about leadership next year. And if their caucus could settle on a consensus candidate they could stick with, they could start talking about Speaker Whoever-it-is rather than Speaker Black.

Of course, given the number of people who want the job, the various and shifting alliances within the party and the vagaries of intramural legislative politics, it’s just as likely they’ll drag things out until session begins on Jan. 24.

State Rep. Pricey Harrison and Congressman Howard Coble thanked their supporters on our letters page Sunday...in two separate letters, of course.

The conservative-leaning Civitas Institute did themselves some exit polling following last weeks election. Despite the partisan nature of the group (no doubt they were rooting for Republicans to win) their polling seems to have been conducted in a pretty straight up fashion.

Civitas surveyed 800 folks who actually voted in the election. Basically, they were trying to figure out why exactly Republicans lost en mass in races from Congress on down the ticket.

Update: Click here to see the powerpoint of the poll results.

Here’s what they found:

• The war in Iraq locked in a lot of voters early and those voters didn’t move from their opposition to President Bush or his Republican allies.
  
• Republican voters, even self-identified “very conservative” voters, did some ticket splitting in this election. The “very liberals” remained more solidly in the Democratic camp.
  
• Only 33 percent of actual voters said the Jim Black scandal made any sort of difference in how they voted.
  
• Among actual voters, improving education, making health care affordable and illegal immigration were the top three issues in state-level races. Illegal immigration was particularly important to conservative voters.
  
• The problem Republicans had in those state legislative races was that voters only heard them talking about illegal immigration. Voters said they heard Democrats talking and doing something on the health care and education fronts, but not so much the Republicans on either of those issues.

It’s an old saw in political circles that in order to win elections, you have to tell the voters a story. What the Civitas data appear to show is that the voters in the state legislative elections wanted to hear three stories. Democrats did an adequate job of telling all three while Republicans did not.

If you were to choose one legislative election this year out of all 170 seats that you would get 100 percent, scrupulously right, which one would it be. Say a magic genie came to the Board of Elections and said, “I’ll grant you one district where absolutely nothing will go wrong and you can be assured the county will be handled accurately,” which one would they have chosen.

Yeah, I’m thinking the race between Democratic House Speaker Jim Black and Republican Hal Jordan might have been their pick too.

Which makes this report from our friends at the Associated Press all the more, what’s the word, perplexing maybe?:

RALEIGH (AP) — The outcome of the close legislative race between House Speaker Jim Black and Republican Hal Jordan became more uncertain Tuesday after Mecklenburg County election officials said that nearly 450 ballots were cast by people outside of their district.

Meeting in an emergency session, election board officials said voters in a split precinct received ballots with the Black-Jordan race when they should have received ballots for another House district, Mecklenburg deputy elections director Jo Winkler said.

From our friends at the Associated Press:

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) — There are still 1,492 provisional ballots to be counted in the undecided race for the 8th District U.S. House seat between Robin Hayes and Larry Kissell, state elections officials said Thursday.

Democratic challenger Kissell expressed optimism that he would be able to make up a 465-vote deficit in the unofficial count.

For a guy who just saw his party switch from uncontested majority control of Congress to loosing the House and maybe the Senate, Republican Congressman Howard Coble was an upbeat guy today.

“I’ve ridden in this rodeo before,” Coble said.

And so he has. Before the Republican revolution of 1994, they were the minority party. Coble says he remembers those days and doesn’t think the adjustment for him will be too hard. The bigger problems, he said, may come for Republicans who were elected in 1994 and who have never been in the minority and will need time to adjust to life in the loyal opposition.

Toward the end of our phone call, I asked Coble whether he had given any thoughts to retiring from the gig he has held since 1984.

“A guy told me a month ago, ‘Howard, I want you to stay up there until you die.’ Well, I don’t plan to die there,” Coble said. At age 75, Coble said he’s still in relatively good health and still enjoys the job. But he cracked the window on retirement more than I’ve ever heard him do so before.

“I don’t anticipate spending a whole lot more time in Washington. I don’t want to set a deadline for myself, but I’m 75 … I will certainly fulfill this term, but I won’t be up there eternally. In two years, we’ll see how things are.”

I think we'll all be digesting what the outcome of the General Assembly elections mean for a while. But here are a few nuggets as the smoke clears:

• Democratic House Speaker Jim Black's troubles were his own. While it's remarkable he only leads his race by seven votes, it doesn’t look like his problems bled over to any other state House races.
• Current accounting says Democrats will hold at least 67 of the Houses' 120 seats. Democrats look to control 31 of the 50 senate seats next year. In both cases, they’ve build on their majorities.
• Just because Democrats have cushy majorities, don't expect everything to be all peachy. There are different flavors of Democrats, from pro-business conservatives on down to save-the-whale liberals. Caucus meetings might get more raucous, not less so.
• Following from the last point, just because the Republicans hold a smaller minority, they aren't irrelevant. If the GOP could tolerate working across the isle with some conservative dems (and visa versa), you could wind up seeing some interesting votes.
• For sheer character and amusement value, Alamance County Republican Sen. Hugh Websters' defeat is a great loss to the Senate. The man is a very funny, smart guy, even if he was on the losing end of a lot of 49-1 votes.
• It will be very interesting in two years to see if Democrats can hold onto Republican leaning districts that they picked up Tuesday. There are some mountain counties one doesn't expect to buck the GOP swimming in the Democratic wave.

Out in the western North Carolina environs of the 11th Congressional District, Democrat Heath Schuler beat Republican incumbent Charles Taylor last night. Schuler is a Democrat but is by no means a liberal on every issue. The state’s pro-life Democrats sent out this release today:

"Last night was a glorious night for the Democratic Party. The only thing bluer in our nation today is the sky. That happiness was shared by NC Pro-Life Democrats. We now have a new pro-life Congressman, Heath Shuler. He will join Mike McIntyre as another voice for all life in our Congress. Mr. Shuler's victory in the 11th District proves that pro-life candidates are winning candidates and they reflect the nation's conservative view on abortion. Welcome Mr. Shuler to our growing group of pro-life representatives in North Carolina."

Meanwhile, the closely watched 8th Congressional District may still be too close to call. The state Democratic Party had this to say this morning:

“Since last night, Larry Kissell has picked up 122 additional votes. With only 346 votes separating the candidates and many provisional ballots uncounted, this race is clearly undecided. Under North Carolina law, a recount can be requested if the margin is less than one percent. The North Carolina Democratic Party is working closely with legal counsel to make sure that every vote is counted. As provisional ballots tend to favor Democrats, we are very optimistic about our chances in the 8th District.”

As I prepare to leave the office the morning after Election Night, House Speaker Jim Black lead by seven votes in his re-election bid. We may not know the answer in that race for a few days.

The Rothenberg Political Report has just moved the N.C. House from a “toss up” to leans Democratic.

That probably reflects in some part the bad mojo Tar Heel Republicans are absorbing from their national brethren.

It also reflects rough waters for the GOP in several individual races, such as Republican incumbent Russell Capps finding himself in a political dogfight (complete with television commercials) in what once was considered a safe Republican district.

I have a story running Sunday about the seven factors I expect to influence the election. (Update: Click here to read the story.) It’ll be worth checking out the newspaper page, by the way, if only for Tim Rickard’s cartoons, which aren't showing in the online version.

There’s no huge insight or revelation, no secret decoder algorithm to tell you how the election will turn out. Basically, it’s my attempt to sum up the political environment based on what I’ve been hearing from people in the street on up to national pollsters.

Now it’s your turn to sound off. What did I get wrong? What do you see driving Tuesday’s election? When the smoke clears, what are we going to slap our foreheads and say “gosh, how did we miss that?” Click the comment link and have your say.

For those trying to get a sense of what’s going on in state legislatures around the country, check out The Thicket’s roundup on the topic. While you do, listen in on NPR’s take.

County Government Reporter Nate DeGraff received a question about the following paragraph in his story on the Guilford County Sheriff's race:

Blanks' recent financial supporters included developer Harry Falk, who contributed $4,000; mortgage broker C. Grady Patton, who contributed $1,000; and N.C. Supreme Court candidate Rachel Lea Hunter, who contributed $500.

The contributions shows up on both Hunter's(PDF) and Blanks' third quarter reports. Hunter's campaign reports also show contributions to Congressional hopeful Larry Kissel, Guilford DA candidate Julia Hejazi and a handful of others.

The problem is this: The NC Judicial Code of Conduct says it is permissible for judges and judicial candidates to:

identify himself/herself as a member of a political party and make financial contributions to a political party or organization; provided, however, that he/she may not personally make financial contributions or loans to any individual seeking election to office (other than himself/herself) except as part of a joint judicial campaign as permitted in subsection B(2); (Ed note: Bold added)

However, this is not as straightforward as it may seem.

There is no question that judges and judicial candidates are prohibited from writing a check from a personal checking account to someone's campaign. But does writing a check from a campaign account mean that someone has "personally" made a financial contribution.

For an answer, I turned to Paul Ross, the executive secretary of the North Carolina Judicial Standards Commission. His answer was that there was no firm answer.

"That's something that hasn't been specifically addressed in the past, because most of them (judicial candidates) haven’t had the excess funds to do it," Ross said.

He laid out arguments for and against it being a violation.

For: “I can see an argument to be made that a campaign fund is an alter ego of you as an individual,” Ross said. He later added that giving a donation from a campaign account could be seen as an attempt “to get around the rule.” That may be particularly so in Hunter’s case, since her campaign is 100 percent self financed.

Against: “The board of elections treats a campaign committee and a candidate as separate.” The Board of Elections is seen as authoritative and prescient setting on a lot of campaign questions, but their General Council referred questions on this matter to Ross and the Judicial Standards Commission.

Ross did add this:

"If a judge calls me and says to me 'I'm thinking of doing this, should I?' my advice to him or her is going to be no. I would err on the side of caution."

I've put all this to Hunter in an e-mail this morning and will publish the response here if I get one.

For background: Hunter is running against incumbent justice Mark Martin. Hunter has made it an interesting campaign by doing things like trying to get "Madame Justice" added to her name on the ballot and comparing her opponent to Joseph Goebbels, the Nazi Propaganda minister.

I got a question from Sue about what homes on the Do Not Call list can do about political calls that are so popular during campaign season.

The short answer: nothing.

From the FTC’s website:

Placing your number on the National Do Not Call Registry will stop most telemarketing calls, but not all. Because of limitations in the jurisdiction of the FTC and FCC, calls from or on behalf of political organizations, charities, and telephone surveyors would still be permitted, as would calls from companies with which you have an existing business relationship, or those to whom you’ve provided express agreement in writing to receive their calls.

Of course, the more couth campaigns will get a copy of the DNC list and remove people as a courtesy. But courtesy and politics don’t always go together.

Update: More from Lux.Et.Umbra here and here, although I don't think taking political callers to court will work.

It’s less than a week before the elections and two things that could qualify as a state-level October November surprise have popped:

• Former state Rep. Michael Decker has identified Jim Black as one of the people who bribed him to switch parties. Those who have thought the worse have thought this all along, but this is the first time someone has come out and said it.

  Update:From Speaker Jim Black's office:

  "I never gave, promised or offered anything to Michael Decker to get him to switch parties or for his vote, and I'm appalled that he said something different today," Speaker Black said. "He was asked numerous times by reporters and people in his district in 2003 and 2004 why he switched parties and why he supported me for speaker, and it's unfortunate that he's saying something totally different and completely untrue now."

  Below is a statement from Ken Bell, attorney for Speaker Black:
  "As Speaker Black has testified, Michael Decker informed the Speaker of his intention to vote for him. Many individuals are able to testify that Michael Decker decided all on his own to vote for Dr. Black as Speaker in 2003 because the Republican Party insulted him and Decker despised his party's leaders.

  "Jim Black neither gave, promised or offered Michael Decker anything for his vote. After Decker told the Speaker he intended to vote for him, Speaker Black offered to help Decker raise funds for what was sure to be a tough re-election campaign, just as he would do for any member of his caucus. Michael Decker's testimony today and the things he has told the government as part of his plea agreement are simply not the truth."

• The state has delayed its scheduled release of test score results, which are expected to show a roll back in improvements. Yes, we knew the results were going to be sub par already, but parents don't have their child's school information yet. Could that be a favor from a Democrat-controlled school system to Democratic legislative candidates running as education-friendly? Republican legislative candidates certainly think so.

  Update:John Locke sees a conspiracy.

  UPDATE: Well, somebody smelled a political miscue: the state has released the ABC data. So one of our two surprises now goes by the wayside. Except, now the data itself might turn voters. You gotta love the silly season.

Is this enough to turn the tide for the GOP? That’s what we’ll be trying to figure out today.

Politics aside Vernon Robinson’s latest campaign idea was an interesting one. He let an online audience set his scheduled for Wednesday, Nov. 1.

When I spoke with him this evening, he sounded kind of disappointed his ad hoc campaign staff didn’t let him sleep in. Instead, he got a schedule that starts at 6 a.m. to greet the Rockingham County's sheriff’s department's shift change and ends at 8 p.m. on the horn to volunteers in Raleigh.

The latest Elon Poll says Democrat Heath Schuler has a better than 50-50 shot of knocking off incumbent Republican Charles Taylor in North Carolina’s 11th District.

Election Day is a week from tomorrow and if you’re a voter in the North Carolina’s 13th Congressional District and haven’t made up your mind about who you’re voting for, then you’re just not paying attention. (Need to catch up on this campaign? Click here.)

Democrat Brad Miller and Republican Vernon Robinson have done their best imitation of oil and water this campaign. Yes, I wrote over the weekend that the two occasionally line up on some issues. However, at the end of the day Miller is a social liberal who is more in sync with voters in the Greensboro and Raleigh polls of the district while Robinson is a social conservative who plays best in the rural counties in the district’s center. They are nowhere close to one another on hot-button topics like abortion or on broader policy issues such as the war in Iraq.

A few notes on the campaign going into the last week:

Another day, another poll, another write-up saying Congressional Republicans should be worried.

Still, Karl Rove says everything will be okay.

Somebody’s got to be wrong here. Take your pick.

Former Rep. Dan Blue, who was state House Speaker before the 1994 Republican take over, has been selected to replace Rep. Bernard Allen, a Wake County Democrat who died earlier this month. Allen had no opposition in this year's election, so Blue will serve through 2008.

Blue got some instant buzz as a potential candidate for the Speaker’s job again, entering the mix along with other folks like Hugh Holliman from Davidson County and Joe Hackney of Orange County.

All of which is swell, except for the fact there’s an election in less than two weeks and the Democrats have to keep their majority in the House for any of that buzz to be worth anything.

That’s not out of the question by any stretch. If you had asked me over the summer what the House will look like next January, I would have said there was a better than 50-50 chance the GOP would be in control. But national politics has had a deleterious effect on that possibility.

As the Democrats get excited about their chances of winning more Congressional seats, they mobilize more voters. More Democrats showing up to the polls mean fewer chances for Republicans to take advantage of quirky turnout and pull some upsets.

But don’t expect the GOP to give up. From the leadership to the rank and file, there is a strong belief that this is the year of all years to try to pull an upset and they’re going to put some muscle into it. Swimming against the national tide makes that harder, but not impossible.

So stay tuned for Nov. 7.

In their effort to regain control of the state House and swim against the national tide of falling poll numbers for the GOP, the last thing state House Republicans need to be doing is extending the internecine tiff between former Rep. Art Pope and soon-to-be-former Rep. Richard Morgan.

So, of course, the Republicans are extending the internecine tiff between form Rep. Art Pope and soon-to-be-former Rep. Richard Morgan.

Money matters in elections, especially federal-level elections. Even if all other things are breaking your way, you’ve got to have some money to get your message out and do some basic campaign work like organizing volunteers, putting out yard signs, etc...

The ability to raise money (or lack thereof) is also a pretty good indicator in those races of how seriously people are taking your races. If you look at the latest federal campaign finance reports here’s what they tell you about the three local Congressional races:

NC 6th District
Republican incumbent Howard Coble has very little to worry about by this metric. Coble has $749,023 cash on hand after dolling out $459,531 over the last quarter.

Democrat Rory Blake had $814 on hand as of Sept. 30 after spending $14,004. In a district that includes six counties where voter registration runs heavily against you, that’s simply not enough to cut the mustard.

Without a heavy-duty cash infusion of a political tsunami the likes of which the state has never seen, Blake isn’t going to make Coble sweat this one.

Click here for Coble’s report.
Click here for Blake’s report.

NC 12th District
Republican challenger Ada Fisher is make a good show in her effort to unseat Democratic incumbent Mel Watt. Fisher raised $335,901 during the last reporting period to Watt’s $389,418. Watt has a sizeable cash-on-hand advantage because he began the campaign cycle with more in his coffers.

Fisher’s problem isn’t money, but the fact the national election trend is breaking against Republican candidates of all stripes and the district is heavily Democratic. All other factors being equal, she would have been more competitive.

Click here for Watt’s report.
Click here for Fisher’s report.

NC 13th District

In a case of the squeaky wheel getting the grease, Republican challenger Vernon Robinson pulled down $1.49 million in his race against Democratic incumbent Brad Miller, who was at $1.48 million as of Sept. 30.

Robinson has spent down more of his cash, but expect both candidates to have plenty of money to make some noise during the last two weeks of the election.

Click here for Miller’s report.
Click here for Robinson’s report.

Have I mentioned lately that the paper is aggregating our election coverage all in one place?

You can find audio and other fun stuff on the four Guilford County House races on this here blog: House 57 | House 58 | House 59 |House 60 .

From this Washington Post story:

Two weeks before the midterm elections, Republicans are losing the battle for independent voters, who now strongly favor Democrats on Iraq and other major issues facing the country and overwhelmingly prefer to see them take over the House in November, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The new poll underscores how much of a drag the war threatens to be on Republican candidates in competitive races. With debate underway in Washington about possible course changes in Iraq, Americans cite the war as the most important issue in determining their vote next month more often than any other issue, and those who do favor Democrats over Republicans by 76 percent to 21 percent.

That can’t be giving any Republicans at any level a warm and fuzzy feeling. Much has and will be made of a potential “tidal wave” election, where backlash against the party in power swings previously uncontested elections into the opposition (Democrats) column.

Those unaffiliated voters are a big deal here in North Carolina, making up roughly 20 percent of the electorate, give or take. If they come out and break hard against Republicans, more than just Congressional candidates need to pay attention.

No, voters aren’t going to consciously punish state legislative or local Republicans for the sins of the D.C. GOP crew. But if they’re angry, and that anger is what is motivating them to get off the couch and head to the polls, my instincts tell me they’re not going to be ticket splitting lower down on the ballot.

Yes, some will know about the problems of Democratic state House Speaker Jim Black and break Republican based on an anti-scandal bias, but I would bet newly activated voters (those just tuning into the election) won’t know as much and won’t be as inclined to make that same split.

We’re through the looking glass people, or something. With two weeks to go before Election Day, the campaign news (and campaign gimmicks that pass a news) is going to come fast and furious.

Some notes and notations from the political scene:

• The proprietor of www.jimblackmustgo.com says it’s about time that he himself got up and went. “I have had my say and my role in this fight is finished. The gravity of events dictate that we need more than citizen advocacy on this issue. What we need is executive action. Governor, North Carolina has always been a better place when you lead. On this issue, the time is now,” wrote Joe Sinsheimer in a letter to the governor.
  
• Speaking of the Speaker, Rep. Earl Jones has stood by Black even while his political opponents blast away.
  
• From the hits just keep on coming department, Speaker Black acknowledges he paid legal bills for now convicted former state Rep. Michael Decker and another Black-related trial is in the works.
  
• Has the governor decided he wants to play too?
  
• Scott Mooneyham says he learned a lot from the Geddings trial, none of it good.
  
• Not really political, but the state fair had a good year this year. Officials say 785,956 folks wandered through the gates to ride rides, eat strange delicacies and ogle farm animals.

With three weeks to go before the election, Republicans seem to be ramping up their communal campaigning.

The state GOP is putting a new ad on the air (click here) that features several GOP luminaries, including Steve Troxler.

“Can you imagine a North Carolina where the most important things are always done first,” Troxler says during his part of the 30-second spot.

Also today, some leaders of the Republican caucus in the Senate held a news conference to talk about their "North Carolina First" plan. Basically, it's what they say would be their agenda should Republicans take control of the Senate.

Update: Click here for the news release from today's event.

Sen. Phil Berger, a Rockingham Republican and the minority leader in the Senate, took the lead in pitching the plan to reporters. He and others complained that Democratic leaders had not given hearings to bills that would have put a constitutional ban on gay marriage before the voters or a set of tax and spending measures designed to limit the growth of government.

So, if the Republicans take control, will they give every measure by a Democratic Senator a hearing?

Sen. Hugh Webster delivered a one-word answer: “no.”

Berger was more magnanimous, if less definitive. Click here to listen to his answer, which was basically that they’re thinking about a rule that would give every bill at least a committee hearing but they really can’t commit to such at thing right now. Oh, and Sen. Neal Hunt says on the same take that it’s all the media fault that his bills aren’t getting heard.

No, I’m not going all commercial here. But as I picked through Greensboro 101 for posts not about the RMA report I ran across this one from Guilford County Republican Party Chairman Marcus Kindley:

Well the News and Record has endorsed Alma Adams ... Again. I'm so surprised. The Greensboro News and Record Editorial Staff continues to support the Democrat Party and it’s stranglehold on politics in North Carolina, resulting in the continuing culture of Corruption in Raleigh led by the Democrats and their sense of entitlement.

What I noticed and was happy to see was that Marcus differentiated when he wrote “The Greensboro News and Record Editorial Staff continues to support…” The “editorial staff” are the guys who run the opinion pages like Allen and Doug.

From this story (reg. required) in the Charlotte paper:

When allies of House Speaker Jim Black started a fund six months ago to help pay Black's mounting legal bills, the organizer of the fund said it would not take money from political action committees.

That has changed.

Addison Bell, a Matthews businessman and organizer of the legal defense fund, reversed himself this week and confirmed that the legal fund has accepted a $5,000 contribution from a political action committee affiliated with the Teamsters, the biggest union in North Carolina.

"We will accept PAC money," Bell said last week. He said he was incorrectly quoted in stories by three newspapers in March, including the Observer. "I remember saying `lobbyists,' not `PACs.'"

Now, you don't suppose the state GOP would try to make political hay out of this do you? Surely they’d figure some things speak for themselves ... oh, never mind. From this GOP release:

“The Democrats have come up with a new way for special interests to influence legislation,” said NCGOP State Chairman Ferrell Blount. “Only now the political cost is lower...."

The AP is reporting as part of a story for tomorrow’s papers that:

Republican House challenger Vernon Robinson raised $694,919 in the three-month quarter ending Sept. 30, about $180,000 more than incumbent Brad Miller. But Miller has far more left in his account _ $770,486 compared to Robinson's $466,842.

If these guys are determined to spend down their accounts, residents in and around the 13th district should expect to see a lot more media in the next three weeks.

This year’s election is Nov. 7. In order to vote, you must be registered to vote. The deadline for registering is tomorrow.

If you need information on how to register, check out your friendly local county board of election, or seek guidance from the state board of elections.

If you’re unsure about your status, the state site has a mechanism by which you can check your voter registration.

And if you just can wait to exercise your franchise, early voting begins Oct. 19.

Still pondering who to vote for? Perhaps some of the information on our Vote 2006 page will help.

So, you want to check out the local (Guilford and Rockingham county) candidates for state legislature and Congress? A good place to start is their own web sites. In this list, I’ve given a campaign web site if I can find one. If not, you’ll get an official web site (such as Mel Watt’s Congressional page) and if they have neither, well, your friendly local candidate doesn’t seem to be on the web. (If you know of a campaign site I don’t have listed here, please post it in the comments or e-mail me and I’ll update ASAP.)

Congress

6th Congressional District
Democrat Rory Blake: http://www.blake06.com/Home.asp
Republican Howard Coble: http://www.cobleforcongress.com/

12th Congressional District
Democrat Mel Watt: http://www.wattforcongress.com/
Republican Ada Fisher: http://www.dradamfisher.org/

13th Congressional District
Democrat Brad Miller: http://www.bradmiller.org/
Republican Vernon Robinson: http://www.vernonrobinson.com/

State legislature

State Senate 26
Democrat Rick Miller: none found.
Republican Phil Berger: http://www.philberger.com/

State House 57
Democrat Pricey Harrison: http://www.priceyharrison.com/
Republican Ron Styers: none found

State House 58
Democrat Alma Adams: http://www.ncleg.net/gascripts/members/viewMember.pl?sChamber=House&nUserID=18
Republican Olga Morgan Wright: http://www.voteforolga06.com/

State House 59
Democrat Maggie Jeffus: http://www.maggiejeffus.org/
Republican Jim Rumley: http://www.jimrumley.com/

State House 60
Democrat Earl Jones: none found.
Republican Bill Wright: http://www.votebillwright.com/

State House 65
Democrat Nelson Cole: none found.
Republican Michael Moore: none found.

State House 70
Democrat Hampton Spivey: http://www.spiveyfornchouse.com/
Republican Pat Hurley: Not using one in general election.

It is election season, just in case the recent blossom of yard signs hasn’t tipped you off. With about four weeks to go before Nov. 7, I figured now would be a good time to look at what we’ve been doing and what the paper will be doing in terms of legislative elections, state and federal. (For local election news, check out Inside Scoop.

With regard to state legislative races, some of the coverage has already begun right here in my little slice of cyberspace. I’ve posted columns with audio on four Greensboro state house races so far. They are:

• House 57. Pricey Harrison vs. Ron Styers.
  
• House 58. Alma Adams vs. Olga Morgan Wright
  
• House 59. Maggie Jeffus vs. Jim Rumley
  
• House 60. Earl Jones vs. Bill Wright

In addition to the postings here, each of those will get additional coverage in the newspaper (you remember, that rolled up thing that lands in your driveway every morning) over the next month. In all cases, we will have at least what we call an “alternative story form” that gives biographical information, two or three questions and answers and some race analysis.

In some cases we may write more about an individual race as it warrants, or cover an issue that it cutting across campaigns.

We will run something on House District 70, which is in Randolph County.

Rockingham County-based races, including Senate 26 (Republican Phil Berger’s re-election contest against Rick Miller) and House 65, (Democrat Nelson Cole’s re-election bid versus Republican Michael Moore) will be covered for the paper by my colleague Gerald Witt. When those stories run, I’ll post links here.

There are also a few Congressional seats of local interest up for grabs. My colleague Margaret Banks will be doing the heavy lifting on races in the 12th Congressional District (currently held by Mel Watt) and the 6h Congressional District (currently held by Howard Coble).

I will continue to write about the Fightin’ 13th Congressional District race between Democratic incumbent Brad Miller and Republican Vernon Robinson.

There will, of course, be some other things to come up that aren’t listed here. For those, stay tuned.

The latest Elon Poll finds that voters are aware of Speaker Jim Black’s ethical problems, but that might not be a deciding factor in the election. (Click here for the poll release and data).

(If you need it: click here for more on the Speaker.)

I think a lot of folks looked at the poll data yesterday and got excited. Half of all people were aware of the Speaker’s problems and that seemed like a lot.

But remember, the data in this poll was gather at the same time as those for Friday’s release. So having a little more than 50 percent of all people be aware of the Black issue (and 25 percent of all respondents saying they’d vote on it) isn’t that strong compared with 70-plus respondents talking about economic, health, immigration and security issues.

What may point to the Speaker’s issues being more of a potent force is that those who are aware of the ongoing saga are more likely to be active voters. So, you could make an argument that the folks who didn’t know about the saga (or the 60 percent of those surveyed who know about black but who didn’t know whether their representative supported Black or not) aren’t the most likely folks to be showing up to the polls.

I suspect the biggest impact of this whole deal may be that it motivates an extra clump of Republicans to show up to the polls. The question is, are any of the state House or Senate races tight enough where those extra few voters are going to make a difference.

Again, like with the first bolus of data from the poll, it may be the unaffiliated voters who are the most interesting.

They were aware of the Black issue in equal numbers to Republican and Democratic voters and were more likely to ad their own “derogatory comment” when first asked about the Black scandal.

So if you believe that some portion of independent voters is truly undecided, and those voters show up to the polls, then maybe that’s where you find another effect from Black’s problems. Perhaps if given a choice between two candidates they don’t recognize, they’ll be more likely to go Republican than Democrat due to the influence of the story. But again, the question becomes whether that group is big enough to make a difference.

(Blogger’s Note: You will find several audio files from each candidate at the end of this post, along with some biographical information on each. We will have further coverage of this race, including a Q+A on more issues not represented here and an additional profile of the race, in the paper. Previously: House 59 and House 57.)

The voters ended Earl Jones’ 18-year city council career in 2001, electing a relatively unknown minister to replace the well-known but sometimes controversial figure.

“It was the best thing that ever happened to me,” Jones said with a laugh recently. Jones seemingly can afford to laugh now.

I would be remiss if I did not send out a big thank you to Hunter Bacot, director of the Elon Poll. I asked a question that the data they had for release didn’t answer and he went back and ran a cross tab for me this afternoon to help me out.

So I’ll share it with y’all as something to chew on over the weekend.

Basically, I wanted to know if some issues were resonating more with voters of particular affiliations or independents more than others.

So for example, 75.2 percent of all respondents (all from North Carolina) said immigration would be an issue that would guide their choice in the fall election.

If you take that a step further, you find that 82.3 percent of Republicans say the immigration issue will help swing their vote while only 70.3 percent of Democrats say that. Does that mean Democratic voters don’t care about immigration? No. It means Republican voters care more about it.

Click here to see the Elon Poll’s issue question data broken out by party affiliation.

So in an election where turning out core voters will be key, you can well expect to hear about immigration from Republicans more than Democrats.

Independent voters, as you might expect, fall smack dab between the two parties on the immigration question.

I was interested also in independent voters generally. If you figure folks who don’t affiliate with either party are pretty much swing voters, then folks in both parties should be curious as to what issues capture the imagine of independents.

Unfortunately for political advisors and annalists, this poll shows no one issue you can point to and say “Aha, independent voters cares about X much more than anything else. Campaign on that to capture them.”

What did intrigue me a bit was that independent voters were just as likely say that political corruption would influence their votes as Republicans or Democrats. This had been an issue I expected to be highly partisan in nature, with independents tuning out.

If you take as reliable the notion that Republicans are most fired up about the ethics issues regarding Democratic state House Speaker Jim Black; and Democrats would be most angry about the Republican scandals in Washington, what do you make of the independents?

Could the elections this fall swing on which scandals more incense independent voters?

That may be a question no poll can answer.

More on the poll will be in tomorrow’s paper.

The Elon University Poll has new results out this morning. There’s a lot to chew on, but some first blush figures from North Carolina:

• President Bush’s over-all approval rating saw an up-tick but remains below 50 percent. The last time that more than half of respondents said they approved of the job he was doing as President was in March of 2005. This time about, 45.2 percent gave him a favorable rating.
• A little over 6 percent of respondents listed immigration as the “most important” issue facing the country, that number was 12.4 percent in the state. More than 75 percent of voters said it will influence how they vote, which is up there with health care costs and terrorism.
• When asked which party they’ll support in the next election, 35.5 percent say Democrats, 29.6 say Republicans, and 27.4 percent say they don’t know.

Usually, the poll folks post data and analysis later in the day. I’m going to curl up with some of these numbers to see what else can be found.

Update: Robinson’s ad is provoking some discussion over at our letters blog.

I posted the other day about a new campaign ad by Republican Vernon Robinson, who is running to unseat Democrat Brad Miller in the 13th Congressional District.

A story is forthcoming tomorrow, but to cover a few points:

• Factcheck.org looked over the ad and concluded it was “fact-twisting bunk.” Making no comments as to their characterization, I would say their research and analysis is largely accurate and I confirmed much of it today or yesterday.

• On Wednesday, Robinson stood by his ad and when challenged on many of the points that Factcheck raised responded, in part, “He can explain why he wasn’t there and why he made sure to be there for the sex studies.”

• If the photo used in the opening sequence of what has been posted on the Internet looks familiar, it should. It is from a Rocky Mountain News package on the men who care for fallen soldiers and their loved ones.(Large PDF. The picture in question is on page 5 of 19.) From my story tomorrow on the ad: “We did not give him permission to use that and we’re right now pursuing steps to make him cease and desist using it,” said Ander Murane, a libarian in charge of copy rights for the newspaper.

I spoke with Robinson yesterday about the ad but he did not return calls today after I learned that the photo was in fact from the Rocky Mountain News.

Linkage:
The latest Vernon Robinson television ad.
Brad Miller's current ad.

Coming soon, I'm told, to a cable television ad buy near you: another Vernon Robinson television ad. It is not for the faint of heart and is definitely PG-13 or above. A short excerpt (Hat tip to National Journal’s “Hotline” blog.):

What kind of congressman would try to deny our soldiers the body armor they need to save their lives? The answer is your congressman, Brad Miller. That's right, Brad Miller did not vote for the appropriation that paid for improved body armor for our troops. But Brad Miller has no trouble spending your money -- he would just rather spend it on sex. That's right, instead of spending money on sickle-cell research, Brad Miller voted to spend your money to study the sex lives of Vietnamese prostitutes in San Francisco.

And it goes on from there.

Miller’s campaign reacts:

"Robinson's excessive use of explicit sexual language in this campaign spot is completely inappropriate for families with children to hear in their homes."

That’s from Miller spokeswoman LuAnn Canipe. When asked specifically about the allegation Miller skipped a body armor vote, Canipe responded:

We think----we think he is talking about the 2004 Emergency Supplemental Appropriations for Defense and the Reconstruction of Iraq and Afghanistan on October 31, 2003. The Congressman flew out with a Congressional delegation to meet with U.S. troops in Iraq at Abu Ghraib prison on October 30th. This vote was a final conference vote, purely symbolic which passed by 300-plus votes. Rep. Miller voted for the bill when it came through the House. Since he's been in the House, Miller has not voted against a single Dept. of Defense Appropriations or Authorization bill. No matter what he believes about the war, he fights for full funding of the troops and their needs in combat when they are sent to war.

I have a call in to the Robinson campaign, but it was late in the day Tuesday. More to come from both sides I expect.

Update: By the way, the Miller campaign has an ad out as well, although it’s a little more staid that Robinson’s.

Update2: At Red State, the Robinson ad goes to the “OMG” File.

I’ve been talking to a lot of candidates and others about immigration (or rather the problems associated with illegal immigration) as of late, and more and more I’m convinced it’s going to be one of those issues that drives voters to the polls.

Vernon Robinson has certainly chosen it as his marquee issue in his race against Brad Miller. And although some voters find Robinson’s ads off-putting in their delivery, I think the issue itself is a good one for the district.

Two quick links, one near and one far, that reinforce the idea that immigration is a battleground issue this fall:

• Chris Fitzsimon, of the left-leaning N.C. Policy Watch, used his latest commentary to talk about the proposal to give the children of undocumented workers in-state tuition. When a bill to do just that was run in 2005, public outcry forced many politicians to run for cover. Apparently Jim Hunt is still beating the drum for this. However, the party line for Democrats who supported the measure is that they still think it’s a good idea but the 2007-08 session is not the time to run it.
• I found this video from the Washington Post’s “The Fix” blog fascinating. Although the first part of the clip is about Ohio, it reminded me a lot of central North Carolina.

Update: Link here to a somewhat shortened version of story.

I’ll post a link to this in the morning, but from a story scheduled to run Tuesday:

The rhetoric in the 13th Congressional District race has become so heated that where and when the candidates will debate the issues has itself become an issue.

(Blogger’s Note: You will find several audio files from each candidate at the end of this post, along with some biographical information on each. We will have further coverage of this race, including Q+As on more issues not represented here, in the paper. Previously: House 57)

Rep. Maggie Jeffus was packing her bags Monday for a trip to Mexico with the Center for International Understanding. The stated purpose of the trip was to find out more about Latino immigrants to North Carolina, who are becoming an increasing proportion of the population.

A few notes, fiduciary in nature:

Note #1When I interviewed Pricey Harrison last week, the Greensboro Democrat told me that she was still raising money for the race against Republican Ron Styers.

She wasn’t kidding. Former Gov. Jim Hunt is coming to town to headline a fund raiser for Harrison on Oct. 3. That’s a big ticket event that should dump plenty of money into her campaign coffers right as election season hits over-drive.

For his part, Styers says he has campaign events planned but said most of his energy has been focused on going door to door.

When I ask GOP state officials last week whether they were going to come to the aid of under-funded candidates in potentially competitive races, like Styers, they were cagey…something about not wanting to give away the play book. Styers said he didn’t know whether he would be getting any help from the state party or not.

My bet would be that you will see some GOP party money from the state level filter down into the campaign…it’s too tempting an opportunity to let pass, especially if the Republicans are serious about pushing to take back the House.

Note #2 The FEC has sent a love note to Howard Coble. Will be checking into this.

Note #3 Passed along to me this afternoon was this: a fund raising letter from House Speaker Jim Black’s campaign.

For a guy that’s supposed to be on the ropes, Black still sounds like he’s throwing body blows.

“A new Speaker is elected every two years. I have far more commitments than anyone else in the House. I ask you to continue to support me,” reads the letter. Sounds to me like he’s gunning to keep his job.

The letter also contains a great example of one of the Mack-truck-sized loopholes in the lobbying and ethics reform bills passed this year: “ps – if you are a registered lobbyist, I am not asking for a personal contribution, but if you would kindly forward this letter to the PACs you represent, I would be most appreciative.”

Give Black credit. He’s complying with the new laws before he has to, unlike some of his colleagues who tried to wring a last donation out of lobbyists before the new rules clicked in.

And viewed under the lens of the new rules, the letter’s language is right on the mark. Lobbyists can’t give campaign donations. But they CAN pass on suggestions about who their clients should give campaign donations to. So while your friendly local pol is out the up-to-$4,000 a lobbyist as an individual could give, they don’t have to forgo the much larger sums that could be raised by that lobbyists’ network.

That’s part of the reason you’ll hear me sniff and jeer a bit when incumbent legislators talk this fall about their big accomplishments in the campaign finance and lobbying reform arenas.

...the chairman of the local party has to send out an e-mail re-assuring folks that you're still in the race. Case in point, this e-mail from the Guilford County Democrats’ list:

In recent weeks, rumors that Rory Blake has withdrawn from the 6th District Congressional Race have been making the rounds. Please be assured that nothing could be further from the truth. Rory continues to campaign and needs the support of good Democrats throughout the 6th District.

If you would like more information about the Rory Blake campaign, please visit www.Blake06.com.

Blake is running against Republican incumbent Howard Coble in the 6th Congressional District.

Previously.

State Republicans sent out a fund raising appeal Monday morning that, makes me think we might need to give our local pols weapons training. (Click here for a copy.)

“We must destroy the enemy by electing leaders with strength and resolve. Our troops need Republicans of the highest caliber to battle the terrorist forces,” reads the e-mail.
So, that local state house candidate going to be lobbing many grenades? That county commission race is really a referendum on the war in Iraq?

I put the question to Bill Peaslee, chief of staff of the state Republicans, who immediately responded by calling Democrats “the party of cut and run,” etc...

But the fund raising e-mail was for the state party, which funds not only Congressional races but also state and local level campaigns. So, how do those sorts of races play into the global war on terror. Is Osama really looking to see who pulls out a win in a central Greensboro state house district?

Peaslee acknowledged that money given to boost Congressional candidates might have a collateral impact in the GOP’s war on Democrats.

“Most of our funds go to turning out the Republican vote, and that helps candidates whether they’re running for Congress or the state house or county commission,” he said.

Update: The Dems respond.

This story on local GOP candidates’ reaction to the recently announced platform by the House Republican caucus.

(Blogger's Note: You will find several audio files from each candidate at the end of this post, along with some biographical information on each. We will have further coverage of this race, including Q+As on more issues not represented here, in the paper.)

If you are going to talk about battle-ground elections in and around Guilford County, then you need to be chatting about House District 57. It is a central-Greensboro seat currently occupied by Rep. Pricey Harrison, a Democrat, who is challenged by Republican and political newcomer Ron Styers.

Two years ago, Harrison beat Rep. Joanne Bowie, a longtime Republican legislator. There are some analysts who chalked that up to tinkering with the district boundaries by Democratic leaders during the last round of redistricting. Indeed, the core of the district shares many precincts in common with Guilford County Commissioner District 6, itself a Democratic stronghold.

But there are other factors that point to a more competitive race. Although voter registration favors Democrats, in a year that could produce spotty voter turnout observers on both sides say that the district is close enough to be competitive.

And Harrison is just completing her first term in the legislature, having made a reputation as one of the more progressive-liberal members of the Democratic caucus. That gives her neither the inertia of a long-time legislator who voters are loath to boot nor the comfort zone of more centrists or so-called “business” Democrats who draw both yellow-dog Democrats as well as some Republican votes.

“There are a lot of (districts) that are vulnerable this time, including that seat,” said Bill Peaslee, the state Republican Party’s chief of staff. “She’s been kind of wishy-washy on that whole Jim Black thing.”

That “Jim Black thing,” is the ongoing saga regarding embattled House Speaker Jim Black, a Mecklenburg County Democrat Republicans say wields power in a heavy-handed way on behalf of special interests.

“Yes, it’s been a little bit of an albatross for us but I think that Jim Black is in Jim Black’s district,” Harrison said during a recent interview. “I think the voters out here can make that distinction.”

Still, Styers has criticized Harrison for taking large amounts of money from the Democratic caucus, much of which was raised by Black. The two disagree on the amount, although Harrison said she is working to return all of it to the party. And she points out that she was one of the few Democrats to call for Black to step aside from his leadership post while various state and federal investigations proceeded.

Peaslee said that Harrison was merely “hedging her bets,” and should have made a motion on the House floor to remove Black. No Republican made such a motion during the session.

On substantive issues, Harrison and Styers share some similarities. Both oppose incentives as a way to lure corporations to the state. Both supported last year’s rise in the minimum wage but say they would need more information before supporting a similar hike. Both say more needs to be done in terms of ethics and lobbying reform during the next session.

Differences include their take on charter schools, publicly funded but privately run K-12 institutions. Styers is a passionate advocate of charters and said that the state should lift the 100-school cap now imposed by North Carolina. Harrison called them as “failed experiment here in Guilford County” and says the state has not seen enough evidence that charters are effective to raise the cap. She said that money is better spent on improving public education, a notion that prompted Styers to say, “The answer is not to keep putting more money into a black hole.”

Tactically, Harrison has been the far more prolific fund raiser. Styers says he will raise more money before the campaign is over and is still waiting to hear if and how much the state party will help with his push down the home stretch.

Audio Links
The following audio was recorded during sit-down interviews in mid-September. I met Styers at his office in Kernersville, Harrison at her home in Greensboro.

• A key criticism that Styers has leveled at Harrison is that she spent too much time concerned with issues not directly affecting Guilford County.
  Click here for Styers’ stake
  Click here to listen to Harrison respond.
  
• Immigration has emerged as an influential issue in state House races. Earlier this year, the debate erupted when legislators, including Harrison, proposed giving in-state tuition to the children of illegal immigrants.
  Click here to listen to Harrison talk about the in-state tuition debate.
  Click here to listen to Harrison talk more generally about immigration.
  Click here to listen to Styers’ take on immigration, including his take on the in-state tuition matter.
  
• One of the biggest variables in the fall election is what effect the stories surrounding embattled House Speaker Jim Black will have.
  Click here to listen to Harrison’s take.
  Click here to listen to Styers’ take.

About the candidates
Mary Price “Pricey” Taylor Harrison
Party: Democrat
Age: 48
Address: Ridgeway Drive, Greensboro
Family: Widowed, no children.
Education: High School, Greensboro Day School; Bachelor’s degree, Duke University; law degree, UNC-Chapel Hill
Professional: Former communications law attorney
Political experience: First term House member.
Civic leadership: Vice Present of the Julian Price Family Foundation; board member, Piedmont Land Conservancy; board member, N.C. Environmental Defense; board member, Carolina Environmental Program for UNC-Chapel Hill.
Website: www.priceyharrison.com

Ron Styers
Party: Republican
Age: 46
Address: Sanderling Place, Greensboro
Family: two children
Education: High School, Grimsley High School; Bachelors in Broadcast Journalism, University of South Carolina.
Professional: Co-owner, Specialty National, a Kernersville cleaning products maker.
Political experience: none.
Civic leadership: none.
Website: none.

National Journal writer Charlie Cook held court at Elon University today – thanks to the folks at Elon’s Political Science Department for inviting me – talking mainly about the upcoming Congressional elections.

Cook, for those who don’t know, is one the foremost nonpartisan pollsters and analysts in the country. Here’s some of what he had to say (after the jump):

I don’t have reams of polling data at my finger tips, I’m not a highly paid political operative and there could be a ton of stuff at play I’m missing, but I’m having trouble reconciling the news of the day with the talk of the town.

A New York Times story Tuesday morning, laid out how Congressional Republicans had moved on from the immigration issue, in part, because they thought other issues would play better in the fall campaign. From the story:

As they prepare for a critical pre-election legislative stretch, Congressional Republican leaders have all but abandoned a broad overhaul of immigration laws and instead will concentrate on national security issues they believe play to their political strength.

But as I mention earlier, I spent a good deal of my day wandering about Randolph County Tuesday afternoon, mainly Ramseur and Asheboro. During that time I interviewed two candidates, on a moderate-to-conservative Democrat the other a moderate Republican.

Both named immigration and the lack of federal action as a major issue in their race.

I also talked to a bunch of folks, leaving my notebook in the holster, just to chat. And while I ran across my share of politically disengage and party-line voters, of the folks who said they were swayed candidate-by-candidate, most said immigration was a big issue.

In fact, other than the war in Iraq, immigration reform or the lack there of was probably the most easily identified, discreet issue that one would naturally think of as a federal responsibility that came up time and again. That’s mind boggling considering a lot of the folks I was talking to were older, from whom I would have expected more talk of Social Security or Medicare.

Let’s be clear – this wasn’t an exhaustive sample, more than dozen but less than 20 folks chatted up during the course of a single afternoon. And the methodology wasn’t exactly scientific – I basically picked off people who looked like they had nothing better to do than talk to a scrubby reporter like myself. But it does jive with what I hear from folks in my own discussions outside of work.

The afternoon did make me wonder if the folks in Randolph County knew something the pols in Washington didn’t. (Heck, even the Washington Post named immigration as a “bell weather issue” this year.)

Bringing the issue into additional focus: In both Asheboro and Ramseur there are businesses, in what would argue is the downtown core, that cater to Spanish speaking customers. (The signs were in Spanish, etc...) And earlier this year, rallies in support of immigrant rights showed that a sizeable population of that community was intent on having its say.

Irrespective of how you feel immigration policy should be change, it seems like issue itself is more than some second-rate political player to be benched during the final quarter of the political football game.

Yes, this could end up being quite the clever strategy. Republican leaders and the rank and file seem to be split between reformer/integrators like President Bush (the path-to-citizenship lot) and the hard-liners (the use-school-buses-to-deport-‘em crowd.) By not having united behind one plan, it lets Republican candidates run whichever way serves them best in this fall’s election.

But today it felt like immigration was an issue where voters would like to see something done, and for those who are paying attention to the issue inaction is going to be as much of a black mark as “the wrong” action.

If nothing else, today’s wandering elevated the issue in my mind as potential issue in state races. I’ll be looking to see how it plays in Greensboro and other parts of Guilford County.

It’s the day after Labor Day, which marks the beginning of political season in earnest here in North Carolina and elsewhere across the nation. You can expect broadcast ads to start airing with higher frequency now, as well as direct mail from candidates to step up in volume.

I’m celebrating today by heading down to Randolph County to check out the contestants in state House District 70, who are running to replace Arlie Culp, the nine-term Republican from Ramseur.

The contest features Hampton Spivey, a Democrat and the current mayor of Ramseur, and Pat Hurley, a Republican and deputy clerk in Randolph Superior Court.

Registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats 51 percent to 30 percent in the district, which gives Hurley a massive advantage. But this is an odd election year, with turn out in doubt on both sides of the political ledger. Plus, being a sitting mayor should be an advantage for Spivey in terms of name recognition.

All around, it should be an interesting race and I’m looking forward to hearing more about it.

By way of logging in the existence of what bloggers will start commenting on in a few minutes, Vernon Robinson has a new TV ad out. If you know anything about Robinson, I don’t really have to summarize it. Suffice it to say it’s another knock at Brad Miller and federal immigration policy.

If you’re curious: click here to take a gander at the ad in question.

Okay, I'll admit it. It's August and my mind is just not fully switched into politics mode right at the moment. That's probably a side effect of growing up just a block outside Washington, D.C., where in August the bosses are away and the staffers plays during this traditionally hot, muggy, low-energy month.

And while Raleigh is feeling a bit logy itself, there has been a baseline of activity as the honorables get ready to pursue their fall re-election campaigns. The summer malaise will fully shake off next week when everyone gets back from their Labor Day trips to the beach.

By way of catching up on few things that have been kicking around:

• Republicans have been hopping mad all summer that House Speaker Jim Black has been raising a legal defense fund and that he hasn’t had to report who the donors to the fund are thus far. Sen. Phil Berger sent a missive Thursday asking the N.C. Board of Elections to change the status quo. So far, the BOE has shown little inclination to do so.

• The Republicans have been fighting amongst themselves on the campaign finance front. As the N+O’s Rob Christensen put it: Raleigh businessman Art Pope won. Former House Speaker Richard Morgan lost. (Reg. may be required.) That about covers it, but follow the link for more details.

There was a good story in the Charlotte paper today about Speaker Black’s fund raising prowess (Reg. may be required) and how House Democrats may not be able to rely on their leader for campaign funding this year.

Here are a few observations from my end:

• The fact that the Democrats aren’t raising as much money as in years past won’t mean much if they can still vastly outspend Democratic candidates. In what some argue should be the most competitive House district in Guilford County, incumbent Democrat Pricey Harrison reported $55,123.59 on hand at the beginning of July, versus Republican challenger Ron Styer’s $2,200, both of those figures from revised 2Q reports. Styers has the making of a pretty polished candidate, but a 25:1 fund raising advantage does favor Harrison, to say the least. You find parallels to that fund raising advantage throughout the Triad and throughout the state.
• There has been much talk of this being a “Blue Moon” election, one in which there isn’t a presidential, U.S. Senate or other statewide office – aside from the nonpartisan races for judicial seats – at the top of the ticket to motivate voters to come out or vote in one direction or the other. Because of this, a lot of the outcome is going to depend on turnout. And while money can help with turnout, there are a lot of intangibles involved too. How many volunteers will a party have knocking on doors or giving rides to the polls or just talking up the election? How many voters on either side will just stay home because their fed up or be extra-motivate because, well, they’re just fed up? That stuff doesn’t show up on a campaign finance report.
• House Democratic candidates aren’t exactly broke as a collective. Nor is the state party. If there are one or two races that get really nasty (and you know there will be), expect the money to flow. And there are plenty of folks in the Democratic caucus who want to take Black’s place as Speaker next year. If any of those can play the knight in shiny armor to a cash-strapped fellow Democrat’s campaign this year, they’d be making a case for themselves.

At the GOP presser today, I ran into the guys from IMPAC, the Independent Minority Political Action Committee.

They’re a relatively new group, and if nothing else will add to the groups and organizations that do endorsements this fall.

There’s also the potential for them to do some fund raising and campaign donations, as they have filed an organization statement with the State Board of Elections.

The group is lead by Jerry McClough, who is writes the ThatsWhatzUp! blog.

I asked McClough to talk a bit about his group:

• Click here to listen talk about the group’s goals.
  
• Click here to listen to him talk about the older, better known Simkins PAC.

It was an interesting conversation, one I hope to continue for a story before too long.

Guilford County Republican Party Chairman Marcus Kindley and the county’s four GOP state House candidates in contested elections held a presser Friday. As expected, they called for House Speaker Jim Black to step down because of the nearly year-long string of ethics-related stories about his campaign fund raising practices.

By inference, and later pretty explicitly, the Republicans were making the case that voters should elect them because, well, they’re not of the party connected to Jim Black.

That's no surprise. It's a reflection of a the state party's plans and, in a political sense, a logical line of attack.

After the presser, I asked Kindley to elaborate on that idea. And I had my handy-dandy minidisk recorder with me:

• Click here for Kindley’s response to being asked whether Jim Black can be the only issue for local Republicans this fall.
• Click here for Kindley’s response to the question: what’s to stop Republicans from doing exactly what they are complaining about in relation to Black.

And read tomorrows paper for a short story on this.

You can say Vernon Robinson is a lot of things, but boring he is not. Robinson is the challenger in the Fightin’ 13th N.C. Congressional district.

Click here to listen to his latest radio ad, a parody of the Beverly Hillbilly’s theme. Click here for the accompanying news release.

That ads focus is on illegal immigration and how Democratic incumbent Brad Miller “is giving away all your tax dollars to these illegal aliens.” By way of a quick and dirty review:

• Ad pros: Parodies a catchy tune that everyone knows, has a pretty effective 10 seconds in the middle of its minute-long run where Robinson promises to “secure the borders, stop the handouts and protect your jobs,” issues that might resonate with and seem reasonable to voters.

• Ad cons: The language is less than delicate, referring to “sneaky aliens” and featuring a line at the end that reads “Hey all you illegals, put your shoes on. Go home.” Yes, that’ll get attention, but it will put off some voters. It also runs the risk of drawing attention to Robinson as an ad-man rather than Robinson as a candidate.

I have a call in to the Miller campaign asking when we might see some ads from the incumbent and for a response to this latest audio missive from Robinson. Will update when I get a reply.

Update: LuAnn Canipe, a spokeswoman for Miller, e-mailed this response from the Congressman:

"As is often the case with what Robinson says, I have no idea what he's talking about in most of this ad. From growing up in New York City and Los Angeles, Robinson obviously believes Southerners are bigoted ignoramuses. But, voters have proved him wrong before and I trust they will again."

In a phone interview, she also said that people who have been getting some of the Robinson campaign’s robo-calls have called the district office to complain.

"Over-saturation...is off-putting to people certainly," Canipe said.

Canipe said that the Miller campaign would probably run both radio and television ads, but had not settled on when. “It’s a thin line. At what point do people just get sick to death of it?” she said.

This notice showed up in my e-mail this afternoon:

Greensboro- August 17, 2006- The Chairman of the Guilford County Republican Party will be joined by local candidates and elected officials for a news conference on the steps of the Old Guilford Courthouse located on west Market St, across from West Market Street United Methodist Church in Greensboro at 12 noon Friday, August 18th to address the legal and political troubles of House Speaker Jim Black.

This isn’t a surprise. Republicans have been making noises for a good nine or ten months now that they would use the embattled House Speaker as a campaign issues against local Democrats. This is just making good on that promise.

Opinion columnist Doug Clark wrote about this, as have others.

I’m going back and forth in my own head on whether the Speaker’s problems will be an effective cudgel for the GOP this fall.

On the one hand, the story has been in the new for the better part of the past year and very little of the coverage approaches flattering. A reasonable voter could be put off by what is at least the perception that something not right has been going on.

On the other hand, when I tell people out in the real world that I cover Raleigh for the paper, their first questions are rarely about the Speaker. I get asked more about the minimum wage or taxes or any number of issue questions.

All that said, I’m going to be interested to hear what the local Republicans have to say Friday.

From today’s News & Record:

• I chatted with Browns Summit farmer and Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler.
  
• Lanita Withers talks to Matt Hill Comer about his ambitions for a creating a political action committee.
  
• My colleague Eric Townsend spent at least part of his Saturday talking to folks about the pending minimum wage hike. For those who need it, click here for background.

Around the state, here’s what some other papers and bloggers were up to:

• Reporters? Cynical? Sat it ain't so, Scott! Ok, it really is so, and you should read his column as to why.
• NC Policy Watch’s Christ Fitzsimon writes So much for all the talk about the integrity of the budget process. The Insider reports in its Friday edition that the final budget agreement includes a special provision pushed by Governor Mike Easley that allows car racing teams to receive a sales tax rebate for car parts bought in North Carolina. But you might have know something about that already.
• Diane Davis is disappointed at the death of the landfill moratorium.
• Oooo…$10 lottery tickets.(Reg. could be required) Nope, I still don’t get the appeal of the whole scratch-off thing, but that’s okay.
• Charlotte’s Jack Betts writes about ethics efforts in the legislature and why the public just might be skeptical about the whole lot of ‘em.(Reg. req.)

Behind all the bluster in the fightin’ 13th, there are some actual policy differences.

Click here for a story on one of those.

I've been off showing my editor around the Raleigh beat and working on a weekend story for most of today. So I almost blew out of here without a post today, but then an e-mail came my way from N.C. Democratic Party Chairman Jerry Meek. The money lines:

Today, Rachel Lea Hunter compared Vernon Robinson to a slave in a mass email and on her website. In response, North Carolina Democratic Party Chair Jerry Meek made this statement:

“Vernon Robinson is an embarrassment to himself and to the many well-meaning people of both parties who hear the call to public service and run for office. Between now and November, he will run his campaign of sleaze and I am confident that voters will again reject him. However, today Rachel Lea Hunter crossed the line. Her characterization of Robinson as a ‘slave’ was reprehensible and I call on her to apologize. This racial epithet has no place in any political dialogue, even directed towards someone as contemptible as Vernon Robinson.”

“Consequently, I am announcing today that I will recommend that the State Democratic Party leadership withhold any endorsement in the Supreme Court seat that Rachel Lea Hunter is seeking.

Oh no, she didn’t...did she? Well, yes she did. From her website:

I was getting ready for work when I heard Vernon Robinson on the radio. I caught the tail end of the conversation with Vernon Robinson. I don't reside in the district and can't vote for or against him, but I offer the following comments.

As some of you recall, I supported Mr. Robinson in his bid to become chair of the NC GOP. I believed at the time that he presented the best opportunity to get the NC GOP from Art Pope's influence. However, it was not to be.

You may also recall that I attended the NC GOP convention and that I witnessed the debacle in which Vernon Robinson was defeated by an overwhelming majority. It was a real "ass-whupping." I would have stood my ground, accepted the results and would have immediately resigned from the party. I made my decision and eventually I did leave, as have many others who have become disgusted over what the national and local Republican Parties have become.

But not Vernon Robinson. Like a good slave, he has returned to the plantation. I am sorry to use that metaphor, but his actions are like that of a slave saying "I'll be good from now on, Massa." A real leader would have told the NC GOP to shove it and would have resigned from the party after how he was treated.

(Ed note: emphasis mine on that one sentence.)

Well, ain’t this high brow political debate?

So far, I haven’t seen a response from Robinson's campaign, but will post it or a link once I see it.

I rarely see a politician target a journalist or a news organization as part of their campaign strategy and think, "Wow, that's going to do them some good at the polls." It has always seemed like a waste of resources to me.

This e-mail from Vernon Robinson is no different.

Mike Baker, the guy Robinson targets, is a new reporter for the AP's Raleigh bureau and seemed like a nice guy when I met him yesterday. As for Robinson's assertion that Baker is a "rabid leftist," I didn't notice him frothing at the mouth or anything.

By way of full disclosure, the news-record.com site used the story in question for some period of time but I don't think it made it into the paper.

Linkage:

Robinson's campaign web site.
Brad Miller's campaign web site.

The comment lines are open.

Rep. Pricey Harrison isn't the only local pol passing the hat this week.

Rep. Maggie Jeffus, also a Greensboro Democrat, will be fund raising Friday night.

Her shindig will feature a visit with State Treasurer Richard Moore.

Schmoozing and snacks are to be had at 5:30 p.m. Location, is The Marshall Art Gallery up on Pisgah Church Road, near the Chop House.

Why note the event? Jeffus told me this week she has about $10,000 in the campaign treasury compared to her challenger, Jim Rumley, who has under $1,000 according to his first quarter report. Jeffus spent somewhere north of $100,000 against Rumley in 2004, including help from the state Democratic PAC. This kind of event Friday night appears to be preparation for another high-dollar campaign.

Elizabeth Edwards, wife of former Senator and prospective presidential candidate John Edwards, is appearing at a fund raiser for Pricey Harrison in Raleigh tomorrow. No press invited, Harrison tells me, but if anyone who attends wants to drop a dime, my e-mail is open 24-7.

Harrison, who missed the big Democratic caucus on Jim Black because she was on vacation in Central America, says she’s “very grateful” to Edwards for headlining the event. (Harrison worked on John Edwards’ presidential campaign.)

Asked about the Raleigh location, Harrison said, “I was trying to make it easier on her and I have lot of supporters in Raleigh.”

Why note the event? My guess is that when the second quarter finance reports come out this summer, they’ll show Harrison took in a sizeable sum from this event, giving her plenty of ammunition for the fall campaign even without taking PAC contributions.

Update: I'm laughing at my self now, and not just because of the ludicrously bad round of golf I played after work yesterday. I wrote this post and then began thinking, "Wow, that feels sort of familiar." That's for good reason. Forgive the semi-rerun folks. -mb

----

The folks at Public Policy Polling put out their latest survey Monday, among other things focusing on immigration, gas prices and potential political outcomes related to Speaker Jim Black.

Click here for the news release and a copy of all the questions.

The biggest grain of salt to take with these numbers - other than the polls automated methodology - is this: people may feel one way or another about a particular issue, but they may not necessarily back a candidate based solely on how they respond to that issue.

For example, the survey says that 81 percent of "likely voters" would favor candidates who backed tighter immigration controls. But how many of those respondents are going to vote solely on the immigration issue? If a candidate favored tighter immigration controls but also stumped for a big tax increase on the middle class (silly example, but hang with me) which issue is likely to drive more votes? I'm thinking that tax thing.

That brings me to the survey's question 5:

Would you be more or less likely to vote for a candidate who wants to keep Jim Black as Speaker of the House? If more likely, press 1. If less likely, press 2. If it makes no difference, press 3.

The respondents answered:

More likely.............. 14%

Less likely ............. 50%

No difference ........... 37%

What's interesting, if it holds true for the population at large, is that those numbers weren't affected much by whether a respondent was a Democrat or a Republican.

So the question becomes, is that enough to drive votes from one House candidate to another come fall? Will the Democrats who backed Black during their last caucus pay a political price? Is all this enough to prompt moderate democrats to defect in some house districts?

With the primaries still a week off, I think it'd be hard to make the case that any of the fall campaigns have become one-dimensional yet, even if a few of the primaries themselves seem to be.(Reg. Req.)

But this poll seems to be evidence that the Black issue - rightly or wrongly - has become a scale tipper for moderate and unaffiliated voters.

It wouldn't prompt someone to vote for a candidate whose views are noxious to their own - an ardently pro-choice Democrat, for example, is not going to cross party lines to back a stridently anti-abortion Republican, no matter what. But if the candidates are roughly equivalent in their views, or an incumbent has a knock or two against them already, the Black question might tip the campaign.

This is going to matter most in true swing districts and districts that can swing due to vagaries of voter turn out, enthusiasm, weather and what not. I would put House 57 (now held by Democrat Rep. Pricey Harrison) firmly in that latter camp.

Harrison is a freshman, and in 2004 wrested the district from Republican Joanne Bowie during an expensive and contentious race. Signs point to this year's election being another hard fought battle.

I am tempted to think that the three other Guilford Democrats, particularly Maggie Jeffus in House District 59, might see some effects of the Black controversy as well.

District 59 reaches out through northeast Greensboro to the northeastern corner, taking in some Republican leaning precincts both in the city and in the county. From my perspective, Jeffus doesn’t seem particularly close to Black – compared to some other Democrats – but hasn’t really distanced herself much either. However, I'd want to see more out of this race from both sides before saying that the Black issue will be at play in the bottom line.

Three Republicans are hoping voters will give them the nod to face off against Democrat Brad Miller in N.C.'s 13th U.S. House district.

The GOP contenders are:

• John Ross Hendrix, a graphic artist who lost to Richard Burr in the 2004 Republican Senate primary. (Link to his web page.)
  
• Vernon Robinson, the former Winston-Salem council member known for, among other things, his aggressive radio and television spots. (Link to his web page.)
  
• Charlie Sutherland, a Rockingham County business owner and frequent candidate who has never held elective office. (Link to his web page.)

Audio links from my interviews with the candidates are at the bottom of this post. (For those of you visiting this blog for the first time, there's an opportunity for you to comment to me and exchange ideas with other readers via the comment link at the bottom of the post.)

We're putting the story on this race in the paper-and-ink edition Sunday, but as I did with the Blake and Coble interviews, we're posting the audio and some other matter early so blog readers can get a preview.

From Sunday's paper (hyper-links coming Sunday when the stories post to our website) Update: hyper-links added:

• A story on the race.
  
• An issues box containing biographical information and the candidate’s responses on some issues.(You'll have to scroll down a bit to get to the biographical info and Q+A on this race.)

The story looks more at who will likely emerge from the primary to face Miller. If you have to bet the butter and egg money, plunk it down on Robinson.

That's not a slight against the other two candidates or an endorsement of one set of views over another. It's simply an acknowledgement of the political realties on the ground.

The 10,000-pound elephant in that regard is campaign fund raising. Robinson has almost $300,000 in the bank and is spending it on broadcast ads. (Robinson was fresh from placing his latest radio spot when he stopped by to speak with me Friday afternoon.)

The other two candidates aren't raising money at the moment, although Hendrix does have a donation option on his web site. He told me that as of Thursday, no one had used it.

In my story, political strategists (and blogger) Carter Wrenn says:

"The first thing you have to do when you run for office is become known," said Carter Wrenn, a media consultant who worked for Jesse Helms and other well known GOP politicians. He said if nothing else, Robinson’s fund raising prowess should see him through the primary.

"If (Robinson) has got $300,000, and the other guys aren’t raising anything, then Vernon’s going to win," Wrenn said. "He's going to have the money to talk to these people."

Weird stuff can happen, though. It's possible, for example, Robinson's ads cheese off the wrong folks or some news event comes along that happens to give one of the two other candidates a boost at the polls.

Robinson would probably have more to worry about if he was in a one-on-one race with either of the two other candidates. Being well known has its disadvantages, and one big one is there will be a certain cadre of people who just don't like you. Instead of having that vote concentrated all in one place for one candidate, Hendrix and Sutherland will be splitting it.

Now for the audio.

All these clips are MP3 files. The files for Hendrix and Sutherland should be somewhere between two and six minutes in length. I posted longer but fewer files for Robinson at the request of our web gurus. Aside from being cut out of the hour-or-so of tape I have on each candidate, they are otherwise unedited.

Hendrix I spoke to Hendrix at a Raleigh area Perkins restaurant, so you'll hear some clinking plates and other background noise:

• Talking about immigration policy.
  
• Talking about abortion rights.
  
• Talking about why he should face Brad Miller rather than the other two candidates.
  
• Talking about gay marriage and adoption.
  
• Talking more about Brad Miller.
  
• Talking about Robinson and Sutherland.
  
• Talking about his views on the constitution.

Robinson: Robinson visited me at the News & Record's Raleigh bureau in downtown Raleigh:

• Talking about why he's running in a district he doesn't live in, his thoughts on a national sales tax and the GOP Congress' performance on the budget.
  
• Talking about immigration and Iraq.
  
• Talking about why he's the primary candidate with the best chance of beating Brad Miller.
  
• Talking about gay marriage and guns.

Sutherland: I ended up speaking to Mr. Sutherland over the phone. My apologies for the fact my voice is twice as loud as his is:

• Talking about the war in Iraq.
  
• Talking about abortion.
  
• Talking about gay marriage.
  
• Talking about immigration policy.
  
• Talking about why he and not Robinson or Sutherland should run against Miller.
  
• Talking about what he sees as Miller's flaws.

Some elections house keeping.

First off, we're aggregating our elections coverage for all races (county, state and federal) on this page (click to follow the link).

You will notice that more information shows up on the web than does in the paper. Yes, that's by design.

We took a peek at the three legislative elections with Guilford County ties in this story Sunday.

We're supplementing that story with what we are either calling "grids," "long-form bio-boxes," or "that election format thingy," on the three legislative primaries.

The first on of those, which looks at candidates in the Senate District 26 race, ran today. (That the race between Ken Hux and Rick Miller for the Democratic nod to run against Phil Berger this fall.) The other two legislative races will follow Thursday and Friday.

And if all goes well - read: my computer doesn't go ape-snot and I can at least get everyone I need on the phone - Sunday we'll take a look at the Republican primary for the 13th U.S. Congressional, the winner of which will take on Brad Miller. (That should be both a story and a long-form bio-box thingy.)

As always, let's hear your suggestions, questions and complaints...just click on the comment link below.

Following up on my interview with Rory Blake, I had a chance to chat Monday with the man he hopes to unseat, Rep. Howard Coble.

Coble turns 75 this week and is making his 12th run for Congress this year.

As with the other story, we're planning a Q&A style piece for the print edition, but those who want can listen to the bulk of my interview with Coble can do that right here and now. (Coble did go off the record right at the end with something, so you won't get that.)

As always, full disclosure requires me to say I'm not a broadcast guy. My voice is grating, I stutter when asking questions and I don't think in sound bites. Ergo, this isn't going to sound pretty like a radio interview.

And also by way of full disclosure, Coble tends to be a bit more free-form in his answers than your average-stay-on-message politician and there are lots of segues in our conversation. So if you're following along with the tape and the story, you'll notice I had to reorder the Qs and As a bit to make them easier for readers to follow along. And as always, there are things in the interview that didn't make the paper.

Now for the audio files:

• File A: Coble talks about the political makeup of the NC Sixth Congressional District, Rory Blake’s residency ("I’m not going to make that an issue"), donating his papers to UNCG, and just how long he plans to keep running for office. (About 9 minutes.)
• File B: Coble talks about the Medicare prescription drug benefit: "I think it was a plan generously laced with good intentions, but also generously laced with confusion." (About 2 minutes.)
• File C: Coble talks about the Patriot Act reauthorization ("I don't believe it’s been abused"), port security and the now defunct (probably) Dubai ports deal. (About 7 minutes).
• File D: Coble talks about the NSA's warrantless wire tapping. In short, Coble said it wasn't a problem. (2 minutes)
• File E: Coble talks about his ambition to be House Judiciary Committee chairman, the federal budget deficit, the war in Iraq and a bill that he's co-sponsoring aimed at reducing prisoner recidivism. (About 9 minutes)

Now, a few questions for you:

• I did this interview over the phone, is the audio tolerable or does it annoy you too much?
  
• These two sessions were something of an experiment for me. Do you find the audio useful or should we concentrate on chugging out print pieces?
  
• Are there any state or federal candidates that you would particularly like to HEAR from, as well as read about in the paper?

You know the drill: the comments link below is open.

I sat down Friday afternoon with Rory Blake, the Democrat who is running against Howard Coble for North Carolina's Sixth District congressional seat.

Update: Click here for Sunday's Q&A from the paper. I'm not sure what's up with the formatting for online, since the Qs and the As aren't marked differently.

The print product will be is a Q&A style article, scheduled to run in Sunday's paper. But because I like my readers (all dozen of you) I'll let you listen to the audio version of the interview right now.

I'll post a link to the article here once it runs. Blake is 55 and a retired pharmacist.

There's plenty in the audio that won’t make the print story. For example, you'll find this exchange toward the end of the first audio take:

Q: Is you're campaign going to have a strong online component?

A: "We're working on that now ... It's a given. We're going to have everything that we can have to communicate our messages. In fact, that's how we're going to get our way out of the deficit. We're going to find new ways to innovate and reach the goals we need to."

Blake said his campaign website will be www.blake06.com, which should start as a static site soon. And, he said a blog would be in the website's future.

A couple housekeeping notes, I don't have the nice transitions you'd get with someone who does radio for a living. The tape picks up and ends abruptly, with a lot of the awkward introductory cut off the end and beginning.

Also, I plan a similar Q&A session with Coble for Monday and will offer it up for Tuesday's paper.

Now for the sound. There are two audio files:

• Click here for the first part of interview. This part of the interview covers mainly tactical and political issues, such as his status as a candidate who doesn't live in the district.
• Click here for the second part of interview. These are the more issue-oriented questions, covering the war in Iraq, the prescription drug benefit, etc...

As always, discussion welcome via the comment link below.

Yet more results from the Elon Poll, this set focusing on North Carolina issues.

Among the results:

• 78 percent of respondents to this survey agreed or strongly agreed that an increase in the minimum wage was needed. That tracks pretty well with other poll data that we've seen.
• Tar heels are all over the map on Speaker Black. Oddly enough, I think the most significant number in that part of the survey may be the 31 percent of respondents who didn't know enough to answer whether they had confidence in him or not. That tells me that the Speaker's troubles are far from achieving universal penetration in the public consciousness.
• 60 percent of North Carolinians favor changing the state's gas tax law so it doesn't rise and fall with fuel prices.

Click here to download the whole poll result.

And now for a nickel’s 2.8-cents worth of political analysis:

On that last question I mentioned, only 8 percent agreed with getting rid of the gas tax totally. That second number reinforces a notion I’ve had for a while: the gas tax may sound like a good campaign issue but it’s not.

For better or worse, the most effective campaign issues are simple (we will do X, we will get rid of Y). This poll pretty clearly says promising to get rid of the tax altogether isn’t a good move. So a candidate would be stuck saying, here’s how I’d change the tax. That strikes me as a pretty nuanced sort of pitch.

That could fly for the primaries where your audience are the most politically conscious and active voters. But the Republicans have been talking up the gas tax as if it might be a potential wedge issue come fall.

The general election has a broad audience, and I’m not sure a line that says, “we’re going to CHANGE the way we tax gasoline,” is the most effective way to go. I guess a candidate could pledge to stop INCREASES in the gas tax, but given the increments involved (2.8 cents a gallon last time), that doesn’t seem to be the strongest rallying point.

But maybe I’m wrong…in fact, I’m sure my GOP-leaning friends and colleagues would say I am. Have your say in the comments section below.

The bosses have me tied up in "training" this morning (Wednesday). Really, they have to tie me down to make me sit still in some of these things.

Anyway, while my brain is out being washed, talk amongst yourselves. I'll give you a topic...let's say legislative elections.

Take a look at the lists here and here and/or here and tell me what you think of the upcoming races.

What looks like the best contest to you? If you had the opportunity, what questions would you like to ask the state or federal candidates? Is anyone getting a free ride that you would have liked to have seen challenged?

Keep in mind, I'll mainly be writing about and for people in Guilford County (Davidson, Forsyth, Randolph, Rockingham) and the surrounding area, but if you want to chat about the four-way GOP primary out in Cherokee, no one here will stop you.

The political story that has all us scruffy media types talking today:

Vernon Robinson, the former Winston-Salem alderman, has switched political contests.
Robinson had originally filed to run in the 12th Congressional race, putting him in a Republican primary against Ada Fisher for the right to run against Democratic incumbent Mel Watt in November.

But filing reports from the BOE and Robinson’s web site now show him as a candidate in the 13th Congressional District, a seat now occupied by Democrat Brad Miller. Robinson will have a primary in the 13th as well.

Update: I spoke with Robinson a while ago. As he wrote on his website, Robinson said that the 13th offered a better chance of winning the general election.

He really had little to say about his primary opponents, Charlie Sutherland of Mayodan and John Ross Hendrix of Cary other than he was sure all three agreed "Brad Miller is wrong on every issue."

In fact, Robinson seemed to be looking past the primary to the general eleciton. When asked about this, he said: "I'd just rather spend my scarce resources talking about his (Miller's) record and my record," calling Miller "ultra-liberal."

If things keep on this way, this primary is going to be a love-fest compared to the 2004 fracas in the fifth, where Robinson narrowly lost a primary run-off to now Congressman Virginia Foxx.

For today’s (2/21/2006) paper, I'll add to the cannon of stories on House Speaker Jim Black's campaign finances.

Update:(Click here for the story.)

In particular, this story looks at giving from chiropractors to Black's campaign during the July 1 through Dec. 31 (2005) time period. Chiropractors gave Black 33 contributions during those six months, 25 of which are recorded as having arrived on Dec. 7. The cash and in-kind total from the Chiropractors to Black during that time period was $38,779.87.

This came four months after Black helped make the following part of the state budget:

An insurer shall not impose as a limitation on treatment or level of coverage a co-payment amount charged to the insured for chiropractic services that is higher than the co-payment amount charged to the insured for the services of a duly licensed primary care physician for the same medically necessary treatment or condition.

That provision makes it cheaper for patients to go to a chiropractor. Instead of paying the co-payment one would for a specialists (like a plastic surgeon), patients pay the usually lower co-pay that goes with seeing a general practitioner.

Source material and credits:

• The state budget bill. (Section 6.29 is the relevant bit.)
  
• Black's campaign finance report. This is a large PDF file. An index of his campaign reports can be found here.
  
• Several papers noted the change for chiropractors around the time the budget bill passed in August. Here's the Google cash of the N+O's story from back then.

So why'd I get into this? A couple of reasons:

• There is somewhat of a Greensboro connection to this story, which is what got me interested initially. Four of the chiropractor-donors practice in Greensboro. Those donations were substantial, ranging from $500 to $4,000.
• I have written before about support from Speaker Black going to local candidates, but I hadn't written about local donors giving to Black. This was a good way to show the tide of political money flows both ways.

As always, feel free to leave your thoughts, suggestions and complaints at the comments link below, or e-mail me directly at mbinker@news-record.com.

A recent survey finds a majority of North Carolinians support raising the state’s minimum wage.(PDF)

Update: (Click here for the story that ran Sunday.)

More on this will be in the paper over the weekend, but you can have your say here right now via the comment links below.

Previous posts on the topic here.

The Republicans have found a challenger to run against Speaker Jim Black for his Charlotte-area house seat.

"Business consultant Hal Jordan, a Charlotte native, filed paperwork Friday to run against Black for the District 100 seat in the North Carolina House of Representatives," reports News Carolina 14.

Black ran unopposed in 2004, has a huge campaign war chest, lots of name recognition and as Speaker holds one of the most influential and powerful positions in the state. On the other hand, the on-going scandals connected to his fund-raising activities could make Black at least a little bit vulnerable.

By the way, for those comic book types inclined to ask, I don't think Jordan should be confused with this guy.

In case there was any doubt, Howard Coble is running for a term number 12.

The fuel that runs the modern political campaign is money, and at the end of last month (January) state pols had to let folks know how much was in their tank. The reports in question cover the last half of 2005.

My vote for the weirdest trend is giving from the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians of Triad-area pols.

Sen. Kay Hagan ($1,000) and Sen. Phil Berger ($1,000) and Reps. Maggie Jeffus ($500), Harold Brubaker ($1,000) and Hugh Holliman ($500) all got contributions from the tribe during the last half of 2005.

According to data provided by Democracy North Carolina, I shouldn't be all that surprised. The tribe gave to at least $70,500 to 66 legislative candidates during the 2002 election cycle and has kept on giving since then.

Recipients of the Tribe's largess seem to mainly include statewide leaders (Gov. Mike Easley, Senate leader Marc Basnight and House Speaker Jim Black) as well as folks in western North Carolina.

The tribe has been in the news lately for trying to modify the rules governing its Casino in Western North Carolina, mainly trying to get permission to have games dealt by hand. (Currently, as I understand it, all the games there are automated.) I'm told by folks who have been watching the gambling action in the General Assembly that the other issue on the tribe's mind is to make sure revisions to state gambling laws (like video poker rules) don't inadvertently affect their casino business.

Other things of note from the year-end 2005 campaign finance report:

• In the 2004 campaign, Rep. Laura Wiley, a High Point Republican, did not raise money above the $3,000 threshold below which candidates don't have to report their fundraising activities. This year she has begun amassing a modest war chest. Info here.
• If you read one version her report, Sen. Kay Hagan of Greensboro has amassed a ridiculous amount of money for a local candidate. That version is wrong. Candidates file paper reports with the state board and then their stuff is converted over to electronic form. Apparently, someone key-punching that electronic form gave Hagan credit for an extra $800,000 or so. Her real cash on hand total is NOT $1.2 million but $126,808.92....still a lot, but much more in line with what other state senators have raised for their campaigns at this point.
• I'm not sure I've ever seen a report filled out exactly how it should be, but the SBOE does take exception to campaign treasurers who just blow off the instructions, this means you Katie Dorsett.
• What do Budweiser distributors, Cash America, Lorillard Tobacco, the NC Home Builders Association and Wal*Mart's pac all have in common? Sen. Phil Berger's campaign report. (pdf)
• House Speaker Jim Black (not local, but I couldn't resist) drew some support from local zip codes. Among those giving to Black's campaign committee were William Armfield of Greensboro (President of Spotwood Capital LLC), Janet Ward Black of Summerfield (a lawyer with Donaldson & Black), Timothy Burnett of Greensboro (President of Bessemer Improvement Co.), John GB Ellison Jr. of Greensboro (an executive with the Ellison Company) and the Lorillard Tobacco pac.

Find out stuff about your own local politician by clicking here and following the instructions.

So during one of the intermittent periods that my e-mail was working last week, I get the following from one of Rep. Sue Myrick's flunkies about a news conference today:

Believe me when I say that you will want to come and cover this press conference. If you miss this important announcement, you will regret it. Please note the start time on Monday is at 12:05pm sharp so that noon newscasts can carry the press conference live.

If not, what, you gonna fit me with a pair of cement shoes? Had there not been things going on in Raleigh I needed to tend to, nothing would have persuaded me less the head down to Charlotte than this sort of bleepy-bleep bleepbleep. (My bosses tell me I shouldn't curse on the blog.)

Not only is it sort of offensive (and maybe a little funny, but not in a good way) it violates a couple tenants of journalistic reality:

• One virtually never regrets missing a news conference....ever...even if the reason you missed the news conference is you were hit by a truck.
• Our friends at the Associated Press will give us the bullet out of the news conference. If there's something earth shaking, we can then follow up or localize the story.

Supposedly, Myrick is considering running for governor in 2008. No word yet on whether she's hired Michael Corleone onto her campaign staff.

Aspiring pols: remember to send in campaign launch announcements and get a cup of free virtual ink, just like David Carven did. From his announcement:

David Craven, a Randolph County businessman, announced today that he will file for the North Carolina House’s 70th district seat, which is being vacated by Rep. Arlee Culp.

Craven, a licensed residential and commercial contractor is Vice-president of CallCrav LLC. Craven is a native of Randolph County and a life-long resident of Ramseur. Presently, Craven is a member of First National Bank advisory Board and a past member of the Ramseur Zoning Board.

“Representative Culp has done an outstanding job of representing the people of Randolph County in the North Carolina House for the last 18 years,” Craven said. “I would be honored to follow in his footsteps and continue the fight for lower taxes, less government, and the preservation of traditional family values.”

Click here for the full release.

As N+R editorial board member Allen Johnson reported earlier this week and the Charlotte paper reports today, Winston-Salem Alderman Vernon Robinson is thinking about getting into the race for the state's 12th U.S. Congressional district.

He's not the only one. Ada Fisher (fifth bullet in that post) is sounding like a candidate too.

The 12th District runs up 85 from Charlotte and forks out to Winston-Salem and Greensboro.

From Gov. Easley's office:

RALEIGH – Gov. Mike Easley today named Sarah Parker as Chief Justice of the N.C. Supreme Court. Parker is currently serving her second term as an Associate Justice on the Court. Parker will replace I. Beverly Lake Jr. who is retiring at the end of the month.

“As a former prosecutor, attorney general and as governor, I can say that Sarah Parker is one of the most well respected justices on the bench,” said Easley. “She is highly regarded in the law enforcement, legal and business community. She is well known for her fairness and independence which is necessary for an effective judiciary. I am confident in her ability to lead the Supreme Court at this time.”

“Sarah is the logical choice and I think highly of her,” said Chief Justice I. Beverly Lake. “She is an excellent jurist with a keen analytical mind. She will do an exceptional job.”

Parker, a native of Charlotte, earned her undergraduate and her law degrees at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. She served as an attorney in private practice for 15 years before being appointed to the N.C. Court of Appeals in 1984. She served on the Court of Appeals until 1993 when she joined the N.C. Supreme Court.

N+R editorial board member Doug Clark has some analysis of the political ramifications of this over at his "Off the Record" blog.

House Speaker Jim Black may have his troubles as of late, but his money is apparently still good in Greensboro.

A two-sentence missive from Rep. Early Jones (D-Greensboro) says that Black along with State Treasurer Richard Moore will be in town to help Jones raise money for the upcoming 2006 campaign. (Before I get asked: the shindig is from 5:30 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. at the Tuscana Cuisine on East Market Street tonight.)

No word of any "Black-out" protests, which have dogged the Speaker at some recent fund-raising events.

Gee, I wonder if Rep. Alma Adams (D-Greensboro) will be there? And if she is, do you think Moore will apologize for cutting in on her dance with the minimum wage?

Moore is a likely candidate for governor in 2008 and made a big splash earlier this month when he said he supported raising the minimum wage by $1. For background on that click here.

Were I Adams, I might be asking Moore, "So, um, where exactly were you last year when I was pushing this issue? Or the year before that? Or the year before."

Whether you agree with a wage increase or not, give Adams props for tilting at this particular windmill since the mid-1990s. This year, after a rather torturous ride through parliamentary hell, a minimum wage increase passed the House. Its prospects in the more business-interest-friendly Senate are currently assessed at less-than-promising, but the beginning of the short session in May is still a long way off.

Well, after toiling in the trenches on this issue, Adams gets to watch her issue get swept right up in the 2008 governor's race. (Heck, Moore even started up a cute little website to tout the issue: http://www.onedollarmore.blogspot.com/.)

The funniest and possibly most dead-on comment about Moore calling for a minimum wage hike comes from Carter Wrenn, over at talkingaboutpolitics.com

Here's a prediction: However much Mr. Moore comes out for raising the minimum wage the other so-called ‘blue-chip’ Democrat candidate for Governor, Lt. Governor Beverly Perdue, will be for more. That’ll make her more populist and more moral. (Click here to read the whole post.)

Of course, it’d really be funny if Moore and Perdue went all-out to stake their claim to the issue and a wage hike of some ilk ended up passing the General Assembly this year. All that speechifying and chicken dinners would go for naught. You think the Senate would agree to pass the bill just for the comedic value?

And hey folks, don't go getting all sweaty over the 2008 gubernatorial election yet. We've still got a whole legislative election cycle to mess with this year. Which, neatly enough, brings up back to Black and Moore visiting Greensboro.

I've written a couple stories about local Dems standing by their man Black despite his troubles. (Find those (here and here.) From the local delegation, Jones has been just about the most outspoken of the Speaker's supporters. If Black stays in power, one would imagine that Jones' loyalty could be rewarded.

On the other hand, if things go south for the Speaker, what might that mean for Jones? (Yeah, that’s an open-ended question there. Y'all discuss.)

So, you want to represent your friends and neighbors in the North Carolina General Assembly? Good for you. Where else can you take time away from your family and full-time job to work for (relatively) low wages and have your every move scrutinized by us folks in the press?

Are you gunning for a seat in Guilford County or some place on our borders? (Districts bordering Guilford include parts of Davidson, Forsyth, Rockingham, Randolph and Alamance.) Want to be sure the paper and this blog includes you in our columns when we talk about the buzz around such-and-such a race or who might challenge who in which district?

Well, drop me a line. (mbinker@news-record.com or 919/832-5549.)

That's what Olga Morgan Wright did the other day. She's planning to run in NC House District 58, which is currently held by Rep. Alma Adams.

Just like that, she gets her name published on this here blog (read by no fewer than seven people and two hyper-active cats every day) and exposure to the, um, masses out there on the Internets.

Wright, by the way, is a Republican and challenged Adams the last time around. She took home 32.34 percent of the vote in 2004, which wasn't too shabby in a district where Republicans had only made up 22-odd percent of the registered voters.

(Libertarian Walter Sperko also ran in this race the last time, taking home a little less than 2 percent of the vote.)

House District 58 stretches out from Greensboro the Alamance and Randolph county lines. It's reasonable to expect that since 2004 there's been some demographic shift in the area - with more Republican-leaning voters moving into precincts outside Greensboro - to make the district more competitive.

Still, it would have to be a massive (and undetected) population shift to make things completely even. And Adams is a strong incumbent with strong ties to the House leadership (which could be both a good and bad thing this year) and a corps of support anchored firmly in a handful of east Greensboro precincts that tend to vote in pretty good numbers.

All in all - voters should expect to see a competitive campaign here, with Adams having an edge due to incumbency, name recognition and voter registration percentages. On the flip side, Wright will likely get some bump in name recognition from her prior campaign and has shown she can "beat the spread" during the fall campaign.