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So, you want to represent your friends and neighbors in the North Carolina General Assembly? Good for you. Where else can you take time away from your family and full-time job to work for (relatively) low wages and have your every move scrutinized by us folks in the press?

Are you gunning for a seat in Guilford County or some place on our borders? (Districts bordering Guilford include parts of Davidson, Forsyth, Rockingham, Randolph and Alamance.) Want to be sure the paper and this blog includes you in our columns when we talk about the buzz around such-and-such a race or who might challenge who in which district?

Well, drop me a line. (mbinker@news-record.com or 919/832-5549.)

That's what Olga Morgan Wright did the other day. She's planning to run in NC House District 58, which is currently held by Rep. Alma Adams.

Just like that, she gets her name published on this here blog (read by no fewer than seven people and two hyper-active cats every day) and exposure to the, um, masses out there on the Internets.

Wright, by the way, is a Republican and challenged Adams the last time around. She took home 32.34 percent of the vote in 2004, which wasn't too shabby in a district where Republicans had only made up 22-odd percent of the registered voters.

(Libertarian Walter Sperko also ran in this race the last time, taking home a little less than 2 percent of the vote.)

House District 58 stretches out from Greensboro the Alamance and Randolph county lines. It's reasonable to expect that since 2004 there's been some demographic shift in the area - with more Republican-leaning voters moving into precincts outside Greensboro - to make the district more competitive.

Still, it would have to be a massive (and undetected) population shift to make things completely even. And Adams is a strong incumbent with strong ties to the House leadership (which could be both a good and bad thing this year) and a corps of support anchored firmly in a handful of east Greensboro precincts that tend to vote in pretty good numbers.

All in all - voters should expect to see a competitive campaign here, with Adams having an edge due to incumbency, name recognition and voter registration percentages. On the flip side, Wright will likely get some bump in name recognition from her prior campaign and has shown she can "beat the spread" during the fall campaign.

House Speaker Jim Black may have his troubles as of late, but his money is apparently still good in Greensboro.

A two-sentence missive from Rep. Early Jones (D-Greensboro) says that Black along with State Treasurer Richard Moore will be in town to help Jones raise money for the upcoming 2006 campaign. (Before I get asked: the shindig is from 5:30 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. at the Tuscana Cuisine on East Market Street tonight.)

No word of any "Black-out" protests, which have dogged the Speaker at some recent fund-raising events.

Gee, I wonder if Rep. Alma Adams (D-Greensboro) will be there? And if she is, do you think Moore will apologize for cutting in on her dance with the minimum wage?

Moore is a likely candidate for governor in 2008 and made a big splash earlier this month when he said he supported raising the minimum wage by $1. For background on that click here.

Were I Adams, I might be asking Moore, "So, um, where exactly were you last year when I was pushing this issue? Or the year before that? Or the year before."

Whether you agree with a wage increase or not, give Adams props for tilting at this particular windmill since the mid-1990s. This year, after a rather torturous ride through parliamentary hell, a minimum wage increase passed the House. Its prospects in the more business-interest-friendly Senate are currently assessed at less-than-promising, but the beginning of the short session in May is still a long way off.

Well, after toiling in the trenches on this issue, Adams gets to watch her issue get swept right up in the 2008 governor's race. (Heck, Moore even started up a cute little website to tout the issue: http://www.onedollarmore.blogspot.com/.)

The funniest and possibly most dead-on comment about Moore calling for a minimum wage hike comes from Carter Wrenn, over at talkingaboutpolitics.com

Here's a prediction: However much Mr. Moore comes out for raising the minimum wage the other so-called ‘blue-chip’ Democrat candidate for Governor, Lt. Governor Beverly Perdue, will be for more. That’ll make her more populist and more moral. (Click here to read the whole post.)

Of course, it’d really be funny if Moore and Perdue went all-out to stake their claim to the issue and a wage hike of some ilk ended up passing the General Assembly this year. All that speechifying and chicken dinners would go for naught. You think the Senate would agree to pass the bill just for the comedic value?

And hey folks, don't go getting all sweaty over the 2008 gubernatorial election yet. We've still got a whole legislative election cycle to mess with this year. Which, neatly enough, brings up back to Black and Moore visiting Greensboro.

I've written a couple stories about local Dems standing by their man Black despite his troubles. (Find those (here and here.) From the local delegation, Jones has been just about the most outspoken of the Speaker's supporters. If Black stays in power, one would imagine that Jones' loyalty could be rewarded.

On the other hand, if things go south for the Speaker, what might that mean for Jones? (Yeah, that’s an open-ended question there. Y'all discuss.)

From Gov. Easley's office:

RALEIGH – Gov. Mike Easley today named Sarah Parker as Chief Justice of the N.C. Supreme Court. Parker is currently serving her second term as an Associate Justice on the Court. Parker will replace I. Beverly Lake Jr. who is retiring at the end of the month.

“As a former prosecutor, attorney general and as governor, I can say that Sarah Parker is one of the most well respected justices on the bench,” said Easley. “She is highly regarded in the law enforcement, legal and business community. She is well known for her fairness and independence which is necessary for an effective judiciary. I am confident in her ability to lead the Supreme Court at this time.”

“Sarah is the logical choice and I think highly of her,” said Chief Justice I. Beverly Lake. “She is an excellent jurist with a keen analytical mind. She will do an exceptional job.”

Parker, a native of Charlotte, earned her undergraduate and her law degrees at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. She served as an attorney in private practice for 15 years before being appointed to the N.C. Court of Appeals in 1984. She served on the Court of Appeals until 1993 when she joined the N.C. Supreme Court.

N+R editorial board member Doug Clark has some analysis of the political ramifications of this over at his "Off the Record" blog.

As N+R editorial board member Allen Johnson reported earlier this week and the Charlotte paper reports today, Winston-Salem Alderman Vernon Robinson is thinking about getting into the race for the state's 12th U.S. Congressional district.

He's not the only one. Ada Fisher (fifth bullet in that post) is sounding like a candidate too.

The 12th District runs up 85 from Charlotte and forks out to Winston-Salem and Greensboro.

Aspiring pols: remember to send in campaign launch announcements and get a cup of free virtual ink, just like David Carven did. From his announcement:

David Craven, a Randolph County businessman, announced today that he will file for the North Carolina House’s 70th district seat, which is being vacated by Rep. Arlee Culp.

Craven, a licensed residential and commercial contractor is Vice-president of CallCrav LLC. Craven is a native of Randolph County and a life-long resident of Ramseur. Presently, Craven is a member of First National Bank advisory Board and a past member of the Ramseur Zoning Board.

“Representative Culp has done an outstanding job of representing the people of Randolph County in the North Carolina House for the last 18 years,” Craven said. “I would be honored to follow in his footsteps and continue the fight for lower taxes, less government, and the preservation of traditional family values.”

Click here for the full release.

So during one of the intermittent periods that my e-mail was working last week, I get the following from one of Rep. Sue Myrick's flunkies about a news conference today:

Believe me when I say that you will want to come and cover this press conference. If you miss this important announcement, you will regret it. Please note the start time on Monday is at 12:05pm sharp so that noon newscasts can carry the press conference live.

If not, what, you gonna fit me with a pair of cement shoes? Had there not been things going on in Raleigh I needed to tend to, nothing would have persuaded me less the head down to Charlotte than this sort of bleepy-bleep bleepbleep. (My bosses tell me I shouldn't curse on the blog.)

Not only is it sort of offensive (and maybe a little funny, but not in a good way) it violates a couple tenants of journalistic reality:

• One virtually never regrets missing a news conference....ever...even if the reason you missed the news conference is you were hit by a truck.
• Our friends at the Associated Press will give us the bullet out of the news conference. If there's something earth shaking, we can then follow up or localize the story.

Supposedly, Myrick is considering running for governor in 2008. No word yet on whether she's hired Michael Corleone onto her campaign staff.

The fuel that runs the modern political campaign is money, and at the end of last month (January) state pols had to let folks know how much was in their tank. The reports in question cover the last half of 2005.

My vote for the weirdest trend is giving from the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians of Triad-area pols.

Sen. Kay Hagan ($1,000) and Sen. Phil Berger ($1,000) and Reps. Maggie Jeffus ($500), Harold Brubaker ($1,000) and Hugh Holliman ($500) all got contributions from the tribe during the last half of 2005.

According to data provided by Democracy North Carolina, I shouldn't be all that surprised. The tribe gave to at least $70,500 to 66 legislative candidates during the 2002 election cycle and has kept on giving since then.

Recipients of the Tribe's largess seem to mainly include statewide leaders (Gov. Mike Easley, Senate leader Marc Basnight and House Speaker Jim Black) as well as folks in western North Carolina.

The tribe has been in the news lately for trying to modify the rules governing its Casino in Western North Carolina, mainly trying to get permission to have games dealt by hand. (Currently, as I understand it, all the games there are automated.) I'm told by folks who have been watching the gambling action in the General Assembly that the other issue on the tribe's mind is to make sure revisions to state gambling laws (like video poker rules) don't inadvertently affect their casino business.

Other things of note from the year-end 2005 campaign finance report:

• In the 2004 campaign, Rep. Laura Wiley, a High Point Republican, did not raise money above the $3,000 threshold below which candidates don't have to report their fundraising activities. This year she has begun amassing a modest war chest. Info here.
• If you read one version her report, Sen. Kay Hagan of Greensboro has amassed a ridiculous amount of money for a local candidate. That version is wrong. Candidates file paper reports with the state board and then their stuff is converted over to electronic form. Apparently, someone key-punching that electronic form gave Hagan credit for an extra $800,000 or so. Her real cash on hand total is NOT $1.2 million but $126,808.92....still a lot, but much more in line with what other state senators have raised for their campaigns at this point.
• I'm not sure I've ever seen a report filled out exactly how it should be, but the SBOE does take exception to campaign treasurers who just blow off the instructions, this means you Katie Dorsett.
• What do Budweiser distributors, Cash America, Lorillard Tobacco, the NC Home Builders Association and Wal*Mart's pac all have in common? Sen. Phil Berger's campaign report. (pdf)
• House Speaker Jim Black (not local, but I couldn't resist) drew some support from local zip codes. Among those giving to Black's campaign committee were William Armfield of Greensboro (President of Spotwood Capital LLC), Janet Ward Black of Summerfield (a lawyer with Donaldson & Black), Timothy Burnett of Greensboro (President of Bessemer Improvement Co.), John GB Ellison Jr. of Greensboro (an executive with the Ellison Company) and the Lorillard Tobacco pac.

Find out stuff about your own local politician by clicking here and following the instructions.

In case there was any doubt, Howard Coble is running for a term number 12.

The Republicans have found a challenger to run against Speaker Jim Black for his Charlotte-area house seat.

"Business consultant Hal Jordan, a Charlotte native, filed paperwork Friday to run against Black for the District 100 seat in the North Carolina House of Representatives," reports News Carolina 14.

Black ran unopposed in 2004, has a huge campaign war chest, lots of name recognition and as Speaker holds one of the most influential and powerful positions in the state. On the other hand, the on-going scandals connected to his fund-raising activities could make Black at least a little bit vulnerable.

By the way, for those comic book types inclined to ask, I don't think Jordan should be confused with this guy.

A recent survey finds a majority of North Carolinians support raising the state’s minimum wage.(PDF)

Update: (Click here for the story that ran Sunday.)

More on this will be in the paper over the weekend, but you can have your say here right now via the comment links below.

Previous posts on the topic here.

For today’s (2/21/2006) paper, I'll add to the cannon of stories on House Speaker Jim Black's campaign finances.

Update:(Click here for the story.)

In particular, this story looks at giving from chiropractors to Black's campaign during the July 1 through Dec. 31 (2005) time period. Chiropractors gave Black 33 contributions during those six months, 25 of which are recorded as having arrived on Dec. 7. The cash and in-kind total from the Chiropractors to Black during that time period was $38,779.87.

This came four months after Black helped make the following part of the state budget:

An insurer shall not impose as a limitation on treatment or level of coverage a co-payment amount charged to the insured for chiropractic services that is higher than the co-payment amount charged to the insured for the services of a duly licensed primary care physician for the same medically necessary treatment or condition.

That provision makes it cheaper for patients to go to a chiropractor. Instead of paying the co-payment one would for a specialists (like a plastic surgeon), patients pay the usually lower co-pay that goes with seeing a general practitioner.

Source material and credits:

• The state budget bill. (Section 6.29 is the relevant bit.)
  
• Black's campaign finance report. This is a large PDF file. An index of his campaign reports can be found here.
  
• Several papers noted the change for chiropractors around the time the budget bill passed in August. Here's the Google cash of the N+O's story from back then.

So why'd I get into this? A couple of reasons:

• There is somewhat of a Greensboro connection to this story, which is what got me interested initially. Four of the chiropractor-donors practice in Greensboro. Those donations were substantial, ranging from $500 to $4,000.
• I have written before about support from Speaker Black going to local candidates, but I hadn't written about local donors giving to Black. This was a good way to show the tide of political money flows both ways.

As always, feel free to leave your thoughts, suggestions and complaints at the comments link below, or e-mail me directly at mbinker@news-record.com.

The political story that has all us scruffy media types talking today:

Vernon Robinson, the former Winston-Salem alderman, has switched political contests.
Robinson had originally filed to run in the 12th Congressional race, putting him in a Republican primary against Ada Fisher for the right to run against Democratic incumbent Mel Watt in November.

But filing reports from the BOE and Robinson’s web site now show him as a candidate in the 13th Congressional District, a seat now occupied by Democrat Brad Miller. Robinson will have a primary in the 13th as well.

Update: I spoke with Robinson a while ago. As he wrote on his website, Robinson said that the 13th offered a better chance of winning the general election.

He really had little to say about his primary opponents, Charlie Sutherland of Mayodan and John Ross Hendrix of Cary other than he was sure all three agreed "Brad Miller is wrong on every issue."

In fact, Robinson seemed to be looking past the primary to the general eleciton. When asked about this, he said: "I'd just rather spend my scarce resources talking about his (Miller's) record and my record," calling Miller "ultra-liberal."

If things keep on this way, this primary is going to be a love-fest compared to the 2004 fracas in the fifth, where Robinson narrowly lost a primary run-off to now Congressman Virginia Foxx.

The bosses have me tied up in "training" this morning (Wednesday). Really, they have to tie me down to make me sit still in some of these things.

Anyway, while my brain is out being washed, talk amongst yourselves. I'll give you a topic...let's say legislative elections.

Take a look at the lists here and here and/or here and tell me what you think of the upcoming races.

What looks like the best contest to you? If you had the opportunity, what questions would you like to ask the state or federal candidates? Is anyone getting a free ride that you would have liked to have seen challenged?

Keep in mind, I'll mainly be writing about and for people in Guilford County (Davidson, Forsyth, Randolph, Rockingham) and the surrounding area, but if you want to chat about the four-way GOP primary out in Cherokee, no one here will stop you.

Yet more results from the Elon Poll, this set focusing on North Carolina issues.

Among the results:

• 78 percent of respondents to this survey agreed or strongly agreed that an increase in the minimum wage was needed. That tracks pretty well with other poll data that we've seen.
• Tar heels are all over the map on Speaker Black. Oddly enough, I think the most significant number in that part of the survey may be the 31 percent of respondents who didn't know enough to answer whether they had confidence in him or not. That tells me that the Speaker's troubles are far from achieving universal penetration in the public consciousness.
• 60 percent of North Carolinians favor changing the state's gas tax law so it doesn't rise and fall with fuel prices.

Click here to download the whole poll result.

And now for a nickel’s 2.8-cents worth of political analysis:

On that last question I mentioned, only 8 percent agreed with getting rid of the gas tax totally. That second number reinforces a notion I’ve had for a while: the gas tax may sound like a good campaign issue but it’s not.

For better or worse, the most effective campaign issues are simple (we will do X, we will get rid of Y). This poll pretty clearly says promising to get rid of the tax altogether isn’t a good move. So a candidate would be stuck saying, here’s how I’d change the tax. That strikes me as a pretty nuanced sort of pitch.

That could fly for the primaries where your audience are the most politically conscious and active voters. But the Republicans have been talking up the gas tax as if it might be a potential wedge issue come fall.

The general election has a broad audience, and I’m not sure a line that says, “we’re going to CHANGE the way we tax gasoline,” is the most effective way to go. I guess a candidate could pledge to stop INCREASES in the gas tax, but given the increments involved (2.8 cents a gallon last time), that doesn’t seem to be the strongest rallying point.

But maybe I’m wrong…in fact, I’m sure my GOP-leaning friends and colleagues would say I am. Have your say in the comments section below.

I sat down Friday afternoon with Rory Blake, the Democrat who is running against Howard Coble for North Carolina's Sixth District congressional seat.

Update: Click here for Sunday's Q&A from the paper. I'm not sure what's up with the formatting for online, since the Qs and the As aren't marked differently.

The print product will be is a Q&A style article, scheduled to run in Sunday's paper. But because I like my readers (all dozen of you) I'll let you listen to the audio version of the interview right now.

I'll post a link to the article here once it runs. Blake is 55 and a retired pharmacist.

There's plenty in the audio that won’t make the print story. For example, you'll find this exchange toward the end of the first audio take:

Q: Is you're campaign going to have a strong online component?

A: "We're working on that now ... It's a given. We're going to have everything that we can have to communicate our messages. In fact, that's how we're going to get our way out of the deficit. We're going to find new ways to innovate and reach the goals we need to."

Blake said his campaign website will be www.blake06.com, which should start as a static site soon. And, he said a blog would be in the website's future.

A couple housekeeping notes, I don't have the nice transitions you'd get with someone who does radio for a living. The tape picks up and ends abruptly, with a lot of the awkward introductory cut off the end and beginning.

Also, I plan a similar Q&A session with Coble for Monday and will offer it up for Tuesday's paper.

Now for the sound. There are two audio files:

• Click here for the first part of interview. This part of the interview covers mainly tactical and political issues, such as his status as a candidate who doesn't live in the district.
• Click here for the second part of interview. These are the more issue-oriented questions, covering the war in Iraq, the prescription drug benefit, etc...

As always, discussion welcome via the comment link below.

Following up on my interview with Rory Blake, I had a chance to chat Monday with the man he hopes to unseat, Rep. Howard Coble.

Coble turns 75 this week and is making his 12th run for Congress this year.

As with the other story, we're planning a Q&A style piece for the print edition, but those who want can listen to the bulk of my interview with Coble can do that right here and now. (Coble did go off the record right at the end with something, so you won't get that.)

As always, full disclosure requires me to say I'm not a broadcast guy. My voice is grating, I stutter when asking questions and I don't think in sound bites. Ergo, this isn't going to sound pretty like a radio interview.

And also by way of full disclosure, Coble tends to be a bit more free-form in his answers than your average-stay-on-message politician and there are lots of segues in our conversation. So if you're following along with the tape and the story, you'll notice I had to reorder the Qs and As a bit to make them easier for readers to follow along. And as always, there are things in the interview that didn't make the paper.

Now for the audio files:

• File A: Coble talks about the political makeup of the NC Sixth Congressional District, Rory Blake’s residency ("I’m not going to make that an issue"), donating his papers to UNCG, and just how long he plans to keep running for office. (About 9 minutes.)
• File B: Coble talks about the Medicare prescription drug benefit: "I think it was a plan generously laced with good intentions, but also generously laced with confusion." (About 2 minutes.)
• File C: Coble talks about the Patriot Act reauthorization ("I don't believe it’s been abused"), port security and the now defunct (probably) Dubai ports deal. (About 7 minutes).
• File D: Coble talks about the NSA's warrantless wire tapping. In short, Coble said it wasn't a problem. (2 minutes)
• File E: Coble talks about his ambition to be House Judiciary Committee chairman, the federal budget deficit, the war in Iraq and a bill that he's co-sponsoring aimed at reducing prisoner recidivism. (About 9 minutes)

Now, a few questions for you:

• I did this interview over the phone, is the audio tolerable or does it annoy you too much?
  
• These two sessions were something of an experiment for me. Do you find the audio useful or should we concentrate on chugging out print pieces?
  
• Are there any state or federal candidates that you would particularly like to HEAR from, as well as read about in the paper?

You know the drill: the comments link below is open.

Some elections house keeping.

First off, we're aggregating our elections coverage for all races (county, state and federal) on this page (click to follow the link).

You will notice that more information shows up on the web than does in the paper. Yes, that's by design.

We took a peek at the three legislative elections with Guilford County ties in this story Sunday.

We're supplementing that story with what we are either calling "grids," "long-form bio-boxes," or "that election format thingy," on the three legislative primaries.

The first on of those, which looks at candidates in the Senate District 26 race, ran today. (That the race between Ken Hux and Rick Miller for the Democratic nod to run against Phil Berger this fall.) The other two legislative races will follow Thursday and Friday.

And if all goes well - read: my computer doesn't go ape-snot and I can at least get everyone I need on the phone - Sunday we'll take a look at the Republican primary for the 13th U.S. Congressional, the winner of which will take on Brad Miller. (That should be both a story and a long-form bio-box thingy.)

As always, let's hear your suggestions, questions and complaints...just click on the comment link below.

Three Republicans are hoping voters will give them the nod to face off against Democrat Brad Miller in N.C.'s 13th U.S. House district.

The GOP contenders are:

• John Ross Hendrix, a graphic artist who lost to Richard Burr in the 2004 Republican Senate primary. (Link to his web page.)
  
• Vernon Robinson, the former Winston-Salem council member known for, among other things, his aggressive radio and television spots. (Link to his web page.)
  
• Charlie Sutherland, a Rockingham County business owner and frequent candidate who has never held elective office. (Link to his web page.)

Audio links from my interviews with the candidates are at the bottom of this post. (For those of you visiting this blog for the first time, there's an opportunity for you to comment to me and exchange ideas with other readers via the comment link at the bottom of the post.)

We're putting the story on this race in the paper-and-ink edition Sunday, but as I did with the Blake and Coble interviews, we're posting the audio and some other matter early so blog readers can get a preview.

From Sunday's paper (hyper-links coming Sunday when the stories post to our website) Update: hyper-links added:

• A story on the race.
  
• An issues box containing biographical information and the candidate’s responses on some issues.(You'll have to scroll down a bit to get to the biographical info and Q+A on this race.)

The story looks more at who will likely emerge from the primary to face Miller. If you have to bet the butter and egg money, plunk it down on Robinson.

That's not a slight against the other two candidates or an endorsement of one set of views over another. It's simply an acknowledgement of the political realties on the ground.

The 10,000-pound elephant in that regard is campaign fund raising. Robinson has almost $300,000 in the bank and is spending it on broadcast ads. (Robinson was fresh from placing his latest radio spot when he stopped by to speak with me Friday afternoon.)

The other two candidates aren't raising money at the moment, although Hendrix does have a donation option on his web site. He told me that as of Thursday, no one had used it.

In my story, political strategists (and blogger) Carter Wrenn says:

"The first thing you have to do when you run for office is become known," said Carter Wrenn, a media consultant who worked for Jesse Helms and other well known GOP politicians. He said if nothing else, Robinson’s fund raising prowess should see him through the primary.

"If (Robinson) has got $300,000, and the other guys aren’t raising anything, then Vernon’s going to win," Wrenn said. "He's going to have the money to talk to these people."

Weird stuff can happen, though. It's possible, for example, Robinson's ads cheese off the wrong folks or some news event comes along that happens to give one of the two other candidates a boost at the polls.

Robinson would probably have more to worry about if he was in a one-on-one race with either of the two other candidates. Being well known has its disadvantages, and one big one is there will be a certain cadre of people who just don't like you. Instead of having that vote concentrated all in one place for one candidate, Hendrix and Sutherland will be splitting it.

Now for the audio.

All these clips are MP3 files. The files for Hendrix and Sutherland should be somewhere between two and six minutes in length. I posted longer but fewer files for Robinson at the request of our web gurus. Aside from being cut out of the hour-or-so of tape I have on each candidate, they are otherwise unedited.

Hendrix I spoke to Hendrix at a Raleigh area Perkins restaurant, so you'll hear some clinking plates and other background noise:

• Talking about immigration policy.
  
• Talking about abortion rights.
  
• Talking about why he should face Brad Miller rather than the other two candidates.
  
• Talking about gay marriage and adoption.
  
• Talking more about Brad Miller.
  
• Talking about Robinson and Sutherland.
  
• Talking about his views on the constitution.

Robinson: Robinson visited me at the News & Record's Raleigh bureau in downtown Raleigh:

• Talking about why he's running in a district he doesn't live in, his thoughts on a national sales tax and the GOP Congress' performance on the budget.
  
• Talking about immigration and Iraq.
  
• Talking about why he's the primary candidate with the best chance of beating Brad Miller.
  
• Talking about gay marriage and guns.

Sutherland: I ended up speaking to Mr. Sutherland over the phone. My apologies for the fact my voice is twice as loud as his is:

• Talking about the war in Iraq.
  
• Talking about abortion.
  
• Talking about gay marriage.
  
• Talking about immigration policy.
  
• Talking about why he and not Robinson or Sutherland should run against Miller.
  
• Talking about what he sees as Miller's flaws.

Update: I'm laughing at my self now, and not just because of the ludicrously bad round of golf I played after work yesterday. I wrote this post and then began thinking, "Wow, that feels sort of familiar." That's for good reason. Forgive the semi-rerun folks. -mb

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The folks at Public Policy Polling put out their latest survey Monday, among other things focusing on immigration, gas prices and potential political outcomes related to Speaker Jim Black.

Click here for the news release and a copy of all the questions.

The biggest grain of salt to take with these numbers - other than the polls automated methodology - is this: people may feel one way or another about a particular issue, but they may not necessarily back a candidate based solely on how they respond to that issue.

For example, the survey says that 81 percent of "likely voters" would favor candidates who backed tighter immigration controls. But how many of those respondents are going to vote solely on the immigration issue? If a candidate favored tighter immigration controls but also stumped for a big tax increase on the middle class (silly example, but hang with me) which issue is likely to drive more votes? I'm thinking that tax thing.

That brings me to the survey's question 5:

Would you be more or less likely to vote for a candidate who wants to keep Jim Black as Speaker of the House? If more likely, press 1. If less likely, press 2. If it makes no difference, press 3.

The respondents answered:

More likely.............. 14%

Less likely ............. 50%

No difference ........... 37%

What's interesting, if it holds true for the population at large, is that those numbers weren't affected much by whether a respondent was a Democrat or a Republican.

So the question becomes, is that enough to drive votes from one House candidate to another come fall? Will the Democrats who backed Black during their last caucus pay a political price? Is all this enough to prompt moderate democrats to defect in some house districts?

With the primaries still a week off, I think it'd be hard to make the case that any of the fall campaigns have become one-dimensional yet, even if a few of the primaries themselves seem to be.(Reg. Req.)

But this poll seems to be evidence that the Black issue - rightly or wrongly - has become a scale tipper for moderate and unaffiliated voters.

It wouldn't prompt someone to vote for a candidate whose views are noxious to their own - an ardently pro-choice Democrat, for example, is not going to cross party lines to back a stridently anti-abortion Republican, no matter what. But if the candidates are roughly equivalent in their views, or an incumbent has a knock or two against them already, the Black question might tip the campaign.

This is going to matter most in true swing districts and districts that can swing due to vagaries of voter turn out, enthusiasm, weather and what not. I would put House 57 (now held by Democrat Rep. Pricey Harrison) firmly in that latter camp.

Harrison is a freshman, and in 2004 wrested the district from Republican Joanne Bowie during an expensive and contentious race. Signs point to this year's election being another hard fought battle.

I am tempted to think that the three other Guilford Democrats, particularly Maggie Jeffus in House District 59, might see some effects of the Black controversy as well.

District 59 reaches out through northeast Greensboro to the northeastern corner, taking in some Republican leaning precincts both in the city and in the county. From my perspective, Jeffus doesn’t seem particularly close to Black – compared to some other Democrats – but hasn’t really distanced herself much either. However, I'd want to see more out of this race from both sides before saying that the Black issue will be at play in the bottom line.

Elizabeth Edwards, wife of former Senator and prospective presidential candidate John Edwards, is appearing at a fund raiser for Pricey Harrison in Raleigh tomorrow. No press invited, Harrison tells me, but if anyone who attends wants to drop a dime, my e-mail is open 24-7.

Harrison, who missed the big Democratic caucus on Jim Black because she was on vacation in Central America, says she’s “very grateful” to Edwards for headlining the event. (Harrison worked on John Edwards’ presidential campaign.)

Asked about the Raleigh location, Harrison said, “I was trying to make it easier on her and I have lot of supporters in Raleigh.”

Why note the event? My guess is that when the second quarter finance reports come out this summer, they’ll show Harrison took in a sizeable sum from this event, giving her plenty of ammunition for the fall campaign even without taking PAC contributions.

Rep. Pricey Harrison isn't the only local pol passing the hat this week.

Rep. Maggie Jeffus, also a Greensboro Democrat, will be fund raising Friday night.

Her shindig will feature a visit with State Treasurer Richard Moore.

Schmoozing and snacks are to be had at 5:30 p.m. Location, is The Marshall Art Gallery up on Pisgah Church Road, near the Chop House.

Why note the event? Jeffus told me this week she has about $10,000 in the campaign treasury compared to her challenger, Jim Rumley, who has under $1,000 according to his first quarter report. Jeffus spent somewhere north of $100,000 against Rumley in 2004, including help from the state Democratic PAC. This kind of event Friday night appears to be preparation for another high-dollar campaign.

I rarely see a politician target a journalist or a news organization as part of their campaign strategy and think, "Wow, that's going to do them some good at the polls." It has always seemed like a waste of resources to me.

This e-mail from Vernon Robinson is no different.

Mike Baker, the guy Robinson targets, is a new reporter for the AP's Raleigh bureau and seemed like a nice guy when I met him yesterday. As for Robinson's assertion that Baker is a "rabid leftist," I didn't notice him frothing at the mouth or anything.

By way of full disclosure, the news-record.com site used the story in question for some period of time but I don't think it made it into the paper.

Linkage:

Robinson's campaign web site.
Brad Miller's campaign web site.

The comment lines are open.

I've been off showing my editor around the Raleigh beat and working on a weekend story for most of today. So I almost blew out of here without a post today, but then an e-mail came my way from N.C. Democratic Party Chairman Jerry Meek. The money lines:

Today, Rachel Lea Hunter compared Vernon Robinson to a slave in a mass email and on her website. In response, North Carolina Democratic Party Chair Jerry Meek made this statement:

“Vernon Robinson is an embarrassment to himself and to the many well-meaning people of both parties who hear the call to public service and run for office. Between now and November, he will run his campaign of sleaze and I am confident that voters will again reject him. However, today Rachel Lea Hunter crossed the line. Her characterization of Robinson as a ‘slave’ was reprehensible and I call on her to apologize. This racial epithet has no place in any political dialogue, even directed towards someone as contemptible as Vernon Robinson.”

“Consequently, I am announcing today that I will recommend that the State Democratic Party leadership withhold any endorsement in the Supreme Court seat that Rachel Lea Hunter is seeking.

Oh no, she didn’t...did she? Well, yes she did. From her website:

I was getting ready for work when I heard Vernon Robinson on the radio. I caught the tail end of the conversation with Vernon Robinson. I don't reside in the district and can't vote for or against him, but I offer the following comments.

As some of you recall, I supported Mr. Robinson in his bid to become chair of the NC GOP. I believed at the time that he presented the best opportunity to get the NC GOP from Art Pope's influence. However, it was not to be.

You may also recall that I attended the NC GOP convention and that I witnessed the debacle in which Vernon Robinson was defeated by an overwhelming majority. It was a real "ass-whupping." I would have stood my ground, accepted the results and would have immediately resigned from the party. I made my decision and eventually I did leave, as have many others who have become disgusted over what the national and local Republican Parties have become.

But not Vernon Robinson. Like a good slave, he has returned to the plantation. I am sorry to use that metaphor, but his actions are like that of a slave saying "I'll be good from now on, Massa." A real leader would have told the NC GOP to shove it and would have resigned from the party after how he was treated.

(Ed note: emphasis mine on that one sentence.)

Well, ain’t this high brow political debate?

So far, I haven’t seen a response from Robinson's campaign, but will post it or a link once I see it.

Behind all the bluster in the fightin’ 13th, there are some actual policy differences.

Click here for a story on one of those.

From today’s News & Record:

• I chatted with Browns Summit farmer and Agriculture Commissioner Steve Troxler.
  
• Lanita Withers talks to Matt Hill Comer about his ambitions for a creating a political action committee.
  
• My colleague Eric Townsend spent at least part of his Saturday talking to folks about the pending minimum wage hike. For those who need it, click here for background.

Around the state, here’s what some other papers and bloggers were up to:

• Reporters? Cynical? Sat it ain't so, Scott! Ok, it really is so, and you should read his column as to why.
• NC Policy Watch’s Christ Fitzsimon writes So much for all the talk about the integrity of the budget process. The Insider reports in its Friday edition that the final budget agreement includes a special provision pushed by Governor Mike Easley that allows car racing teams to receive a sales tax rebate for car parts bought in North Carolina. But you might have know something about that already.
• Diane Davis is disappointed at the death of the landfill moratorium.
• Oooo…$10 lottery tickets.(Reg. could be required) Nope, I still don’t get the appeal of the whole scratch-off thing, but that’s okay.
• Charlotte’s Jack Betts writes about ethics efforts in the legislature and why the public just might be skeptical about the whole lot of ‘em.(Reg. req.)

This notice showed up in my e-mail this afternoon:

Greensboro- August 17, 2006- The Chairman of the Guilford County Republican Party will be joined by local candidates and elected officials for a news conference on the steps of the Old Guilford Courthouse located on west Market St, across from West Market Street United Methodist Church in Greensboro at 12 noon Friday, August 18th to address the legal and political troubles of House Speaker Jim Black.

This isn’t a surprise. Republicans have been making noises for a good nine or ten months now that they would use the embattled House Speaker as a campaign issues against local Democrats. This is just making good on that promise.

Opinion columnist Doug Clark wrote about this, as have others.

I’m going back and forth in my own head on whether the Speaker’s problems will be an effective cudgel for the GOP this fall.

On the one hand, the story has been in the new for the better part of the past year and very little of the coverage approaches flattering. A reasonable voter could be put off by what is at least the perception that something not right has been going on.

On the other hand, when I tell people out in the real world that I cover Raleigh for the paper, their first questions are rarely about the Speaker. I get asked more about the minimum wage or taxes or any number of issue questions.

All that said, I’m going to be interested to hear what the local Republicans have to say Friday.

You can say Vernon Robinson is a lot of things, but boring he is not. Robinson is the challenger in the Fightin’ 13th N.C. Congressional district.

Click here to listen to his latest radio ad, a parody of the Beverly Hillbilly’s theme. Click here for the accompanying news release.

That ads focus is on illegal immigration and how Democratic incumbent Brad Miller “is giving away all your tax dollars to these illegal aliens.” By way of a quick and dirty review:

• Ad pros: Parodies a catchy tune that everyone knows, has a pretty effective 10 seconds in the middle of its minute-long run where Robinson promises to “secure the borders, stop the handouts and protect your jobs,” issues that might resonate with and seem reasonable to voters.

• Ad cons: The language is less than delicate, referring to “sneaky aliens” and featuring a line at the end that reads “Hey all you illegals, put your shoes on. Go home.” Yes, that’ll get attention, but it will put off some voters. It also runs the risk of drawing attention to Robinson as an ad-man rather than Robinson as a candidate.

I have a call in to the Miller campaign asking when we might see some ads from the incumbent and for a response to this latest audio missive from Robinson. Will update when I get a reply.

Update: LuAnn Canipe, a spokeswoman for Miller, e-mailed this response from the Congressman:

"As is often the case with what Robinson says, I have no idea what he's talking about in most of this ad. From growing up in New York City and Los Angeles, Robinson obviously believes Southerners are bigoted ignoramuses. But, voters have proved him wrong before and I trust they will again."

In a phone interview, she also said that people who have been getting some of the Robinson campaign’s robo-calls have called the district office to complain.

"Over-saturation...is off-putting to people certainly," Canipe said.

Canipe said that the Miller campaign would probably run both radio and television ads, but had not settled on when. “It’s a thin line. At what point do people just get sick to death of it?” she said.

Guilford County Republican Party Chairman Marcus Kindley and the county’s four GOP state House candidates in contested elections held a presser Friday. As expected, they called for House Speaker Jim Black to step down because of the nearly year-long string of ethics-related stories about his campaign fund raising practices.

By inference, and later pretty explicitly, the Republicans were making the case that voters should elect them because, well, they’re not of the party connected to Jim Black.

That's no surprise. It's a reflection of a the state party's plans and, in a political sense, a logical line of attack.

After the presser, I asked Kindley to elaborate on that idea. And I had my handy-dandy minidisk recorder with me:

• Click here for Kindley’s response to being asked whether Jim Black can be the only issue for local Republicans this fall.
• Click here for Kindley’s response to the question: what’s to stop Republicans from doing exactly what they are complaining about in relation to Black.

And read tomorrows paper for a short story on this.

At the GOP presser today, I ran into the guys from IMPAC, the Independent Minority Political Action Committee.

They’re a relatively new group, and if nothing else will add to the groups and organizations that do endorsements this fall.

There’s also the potential for them to do some fund raising and campaign donations, as they have filed an organization statement with the State Board of Elections.

The group is lead by Jerry McClough, who is writes the ThatsWhatzUp! blog.

I asked McClough to talk a bit about his group:

• Click here to listen talk about the group’s goals.
  
• Click here to listen to him talk about the older, better known Simkins PAC.

It was an interesting conversation, one I hope to continue for a story before too long.

There was a good story in the Charlotte paper today about Speaker Black’s fund raising prowess (Reg. may be required) and how House Democrats may not be able to rely on their leader for campaign funding this year.

Here are a few observations from my end:

• The fact that the Democrats aren’t raising as much money as in years past won’t mean much if they can still vastly outspend Democratic candidates. In what some argue should be the most competitive House district in Guilford County, incumbent Democrat Pricey Harrison reported $55,123.59 on hand at the beginning of July, versus Republican challenger Ron Styer’s $2,200, both of those figures from revised 2Q reports. Styers has the making of a pretty polished candidate, but a 25:1 fund raising advantage does favor Harrison, to say the least. You find parallels to that fund raising advantage throughout the Triad and throughout the state.
• There has been much talk of this being a “Blue Moon” election, one in which there isn’t a presidential, U.S. Senate or other statewide office – aside from the nonpartisan races for judicial seats – at the top of the ticket to motivate voters to come out or vote in one direction or the other. Because of this, a lot of the outcome is going to depend on turnout. And while money can help with turnout, there are a lot of intangibles involved too. How many volunteers will a party have knocking on doors or giving rides to the polls or just talking up the election? How many voters on either side will just stay home because their fed up or be extra-motivate because, well, they’re just fed up? That stuff doesn’t show up on a campaign finance report.
• House Democratic candidates aren’t exactly broke as a collective. Nor is the state party. If there are one or two races that get really nasty (and you know there will be), expect the money to flow. And there are plenty of folks in the Democratic caucus who want to take Black’s place as Speaker next year. If any of those can play the knight in shiny armor to a cash-strapped fellow Democrat’s campaign this year, they’d be making a case for themselves.

Okay, I'll admit it. It's August and my mind is just not fully switched into politics mode right at the moment. That's probably a side effect of growing up just a block outside Washington, D.C., where in August the bosses are away and the staffers plays during this traditionally hot, muggy, low-energy month.

And while Raleigh is feeling a bit logy itself, there has been a baseline of activity as the honorables get ready to pursue their fall re-election campaigns. The summer malaise will fully shake off next week when everyone gets back from their Labor Day trips to the beach.

By way of catching up on few things that have been kicking around:

• Republicans have been hopping mad all summer that House Speaker Jim Black has been raising a legal defense fund and that he hasn’t had to report who the donors to the fund are thus far. Sen. Phil Berger sent a missive Thursday asking the N.C. Board of Elections to change the status quo. So far, the BOE has shown little inclination to do so.

• The Republicans have been fighting amongst themselves on the campaign finance front. As the N+O’s Rob Christensen put it: Raleigh businessman Art Pope won. Former House Speaker Richard Morgan lost. (Reg. may be required.) That about covers it, but follow the link for more details.

By way of logging in the existence of what bloggers will start commenting on in a few minutes, Vernon Robinson has a new TV ad out. If you know anything about Robinson, I don’t really have to summarize it. Suffice it to say it’s another knock at Brad Miller and federal immigration policy.

If you’re curious: click here to take a gander at the ad in question.

It’s the day after Labor Day, which marks the beginning of political season in earnest here in North Carolina and elsewhere across the nation. You can expect broadcast ads to start airing with higher frequency now, as well as direct mail from candidates to step up in volume.

I’m celebrating today by heading down to Randolph County to check out the contestants in state House District 70, who are running to replace Arlie Culp, the nine-term Republican from Ramseur.

The contest features Hampton Spivey, a Democrat and the current mayor of Ramseur, and Pat Hurley, a Republican and deputy clerk in Randolph Superior Court.

Registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats 51 percent to 30 percent in the district, which gives Hurley a massive advantage. But this is an odd election year, with turn out in doubt on both sides of the political ledger. Plus, being a sitting mayor should be an advantage for Spivey in terms of name recognition.

All around, it should be an interesting race and I’m looking forward to hearing more about it.

I don’t have reams of polling data at my finger tips, I’m not a highly paid political operative and there could be a ton of stuff at play I’m missing, but I’m having trouble reconciling the news of the day with the talk of the town.

A New York Times story Tuesday morning, laid out how Congressional Republicans had moved on from the immigration issue, in part, because they thought other issues would play better in the fall campaign. From the story:

As they prepare for a critical pre-election legislative stretch, Congressional Republican leaders have all but abandoned a broad overhaul of immigration laws and instead will concentrate on national security issues they believe play to their political strength.

But as I mention earlier, I spent a good deal of my day wandering about Randolph County Tuesday afternoon, mainly Ramseur and Asheboro. During that time I interviewed two candidates, on a moderate-to-conservative Democrat the other a moderate Republican.

Both named immigration and the lack of federal action as a major issue in their race.

I also talked to a bunch of folks, leaving my notebook in the holster, just to chat. And while I ran across my share of politically disengage and party-line voters, of the folks who said they were swayed candidate-by-candidate, most said immigration was a big issue.

In fact, other than the war in Iraq, immigration reform or the lack there of was probably the most easily identified, discreet issue that one would naturally think of as a federal responsibility that came up time and again. That’s mind boggling considering a lot of the folks I was talking to were older, from whom I would have expected more talk of Social Security or Medicare.

Let’s be clear – this wasn’t an exhaustive sample, more than dozen but less than 20 folks chatted up during the course of a single afternoon. And the methodology wasn’t exactly scientific – I basically picked off people who looked like they had nothing better to do than talk to a scrubby reporter like myself. But it does jive with what I hear from folks in my own discussions outside of work.

The afternoon did make me wonder if the folks in Randolph County knew something the pols in Washington didn’t. (Heck, even the Washington Post named immigration as a “bell weather issue” this year.)

Bringing the issue into additional focus: In both Asheboro and Ramseur there are businesses, in what would argue is the downtown core, that cater to Spanish speaking customers. (The signs were in Spanish, etc...) And earlier this year, rallies in support of immigrant rights showed that a sizeable population of that community was intent on having its say.

Irrespective of how you feel immigration policy should be change, it seems like issue itself is more than some second-rate political player to be benched during the final quarter of the political football game.

Yes, this could end up being quite the clever strategy. Republican leaders and the rank and file seem to be split between reformer/integrators like President Bush (the path-to-citizenship lot) and the hard-liners (the use-school-buses-to-deport-‘em crowd.) By not having united behind one plan, it lets Republican candidates run whichever way serves them best in this fall’s election.

But today it felt like immigration was an issue where voters would like to see something done, and for those who are paying attention to the issue inaction is going to be as much of a black mark as “the wrong” action.

If nothing else, today’s wandering elevated the issue in my mind as potential issue in state races. I’ll be looking to see how it plays in Greensboro and other parts of Guilford County.

National Journal writer Charlie Cook held court at Elon University today – thanks to the folks at Elon’s Political Science Department for inviting me – talking mainly about the upcoming Congressional elections.

Cook, for those who don’t know, is one the foremost nonpartisan pollsters and analysts in the country. Here’s some of what he had to say (after the jump):

(Blogger's Note: You will find several audio files from each candidate at the end of this post, along with some biographical information on each. We will have further coverage of this race, including Q+As on more issues not represented here, in the paper.)

If you are going to talk about battle-ground elections in and around Guilford County, then you need to be chatting about House District 57. It is a central-Greensboro seat currently occupied by Rep. Pricey Harrison, a Democrat, who is challenged by Republican and political newcomer Ron Styers.

Two years ago, Harrison beat Rep. Joanne Bowie, a longtime Republican legislator. There are some analysts who chalked that up to tinkering with the district boundaries by Democratic leaders during the last round of redistricting. Indeed, the core of the district shares many precincts in common with Guilford County Commissioner District 6, itself a Democratic stronghold.

But there are other factors that point to a more competitive race. Although voter registration favors Democrats, in a year that could produce spotty voter turnout observers on both sides say that the district is close enough to be competitive.

And Harrison is just completing her first term in the legislature, having made a reputation as one of the more progressive-liberal members of the Democratic caucus. That gives her neither the inertia of a long-time legislator who voters are loath to boot nor the comfort zone of more centrists or so-called “business” Democrats who draw both yellow-dog Democrats as well as some Republican votes.

“There are a lot of (districts) that are vulnerable this time, including that seat,” said Bill Peaslee, the state Republican Party’s chief of staff. “She’s been kind of wishy-washy on that whole Jim Black thing.”

That “Jim Black thing,” is the ongoing saga regarding embattled House Speaker Jim Black, a Mecklenburg County Democrat Republicans say wields power in a heavy-handed way on behalf of special interests.

“Yes, it’s been a little bit of an albatross for us but I think that Jim Black is in Jim Black’s district,” Harrison said during a recent interview. “I think the voters out here can make that distinction.”

Still, Styers has criticized Harrison for taking large amounts of money from the Democratic caucus, much of which was raised by Black. The two disagree on the amount, although Harrison said she is working to return all of it to the party. And she points out that she was one of the few Democrats to call for Black to step aside from his leadership post while various state and federal investigations proceeded.

Peaslee said that Harrison was merely “hedging her bets,” and should have made a motion on the House floor to remove Black. No Republican made such a motion during the session.

On substantive issues, Harrison and Styers share some similarities. Both oppose incentives as a way to lure corporations to the state. Both supported last year’s rise in the minimum wage but say they would need more information before supporting a similar hike. Both say more needs to be done in terms of ethics and lobbying reform during the next session.

Differences include their take on charter schools, publicly funded but privately run K-12 institutions. Styers is a passionate advocate of charters and said that the state should lift the 100-school cap now imposed by North Carolina. Harrison called them as “failed experiment here in Guilford County” and says the state has not seen enough evidence that charters are effective to raise the cap. She said that money is better spent on improving public education, a notion that prompted Styers to say, “The answer is not to keep putting more money into a black hole.”

Tactically, Harrison has been the far more prolific fund raiser. Styers says he will raise more money before the campaign is over and is still waiting to hear if and how much the state party will help with his push down the home stretch.

Audio Links