News-Record.com

The U.S. Senate Campaign between state Sen. Kay Hagan and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole continues to get love from the national press. The latest examples come from The Politico and The Washington Post's "The Fix" blog.

Politico names Hagan's victory one of their "Top 10 political upsets of 2008." The Fix calls Hagan's "the best Senate campaign of 2008," saying:

Hagan got into the race as a virtually unknown candidate both in North Carolina and nationally, but quickly showed a capacity to raise money that opened the eyes of many people in Washington. On her first trips to the nation's capital, she wowed even the most cynical of party operatives with a charisma about campaigning and a no-nonsense approach to what needed to be done to beat Dole.

[snip]

But, she proved a strong -- and on-message -- candidate in her own right. When Dole went after Hagan in an ad for attending a fundraiser with the Godless Americans political action committee, Hagan was quick to respond with an effective (and cutting) response.

And you thought the election was over. From today's paper:

Wayne Abraham will get to do something today that most U.S. citizens never do: cast a vote for president.

Although North Carolinians saw Barack Obama's name on the ballot, they were actually choosing a slate of electors who will meet today at the Old State Capitol in Raleigh. Across the nation, similar groups will meet and the Electoral College will formally confirm Obama's ascension to office.

"I thought it would be interesting and exciting to cast, in a sense, the real vote for president," Abraham said.

He is one of 15 electors who will cast ballots in North Carolina: One for each congressional district and two elected statewide.

Read the full story here. And for more background on the citizenship thing, click here.

From the Sec. of State Elaine Marshall's office:

Raleigh - NC Secretary of State Elaine F. Marshall will convene the North Carolina Electoral College on Monday, December 15, in the Capitol Building’s Old Hall of the House of Representatives at noon. The electors will cast their ballots for the offices of President and Vice President of the United States.

The November 4 popular vote determined that electors nominated by the North Carolina Democratic Party will cast the official ballots for the state. North Carolina’s 15 electors will cast their ballots and prepare Certificates of Vote for the President and Vice President of the United States.

The 2008 meeting of the Electoral College will feature comments from Secretary Marshall. The North Carolina National Guard Honor Guard will provide the color guard, and Miss North Carolina, Amanda Watson, will sing the National Anthem.

From today's paper:

RALEIGH - Governor-elect Bev Perdue says O. Max Gardner, a governor and Democratic power broker in the first half of the 20th century, is one of her favorite political figures in Tar Heel history. Gardner was in office at the beginning of the Great Depression, and Perdue said he set an example relevant to the current economic crisis.

"He used the time as a transformational period for the state of North Carolina," Perdue said. Instead of simply cutting the state's budget, Gardner invested in roads and universities so the state would be positioned to prosper when the economy turned around.

And even as North Carolina faces a budget shortfall that could be as large as $1.6 billion this year, according to state economists, Perdue says the state needs to invest in education, transportation and other pillars of economic development.

"The day I take office, I'm going to be prepared to deal with a global economic crisis," Perdue said.

Gov. Mike Easley, whose term ends in January, has ordered state agencies to cut as much as 5 percent from their budgets. The goal, according to officials who briefed legislative leaders last week, is to have $1.2 billion extra on hand to plug shortfalls in the $21 billion budget the General Assembly passed last year. That doesn't account for extra cuts that would be needed if problems worsen, or another $300 million shortfall faced by the state-funded employee health plan.

Click here for the whole thing.

Related.

I'm digging on a new red-blue election map put together by Christopher Healey at NC State.

His U.S. and state post-election maps aren't in the traditional red-blue primary colors. Rather, he uses different shades of intensity to represent how big victories in certain races are.

So in this one of North Carolina...

... we're a lot less fire-truck red and deep-sea blue and more mixed-sex pastel nursery colors.

The effect is all the more striking on the U.S. map, which looks a lot different than the one, say, CNN uses. You can pick up on where the differences aren't so great as well as where the divides are really the strongest.

Neat stuff.

From today's Inside Scoop column:

The U.S. Senate race got a little rough last week, with Republican incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole implying that Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan might sympathize with the agenda of Godless Americans and Hagan responding that Dole should be ashamed of demeaning someone's faith.

So we at Scoop decided to take our mom's advice: If you can't say something nice, don't say anything. We asked the two candidates what they liked about one another.

"It is very clear that Kay is a loving mother and has a wonderful family. They have brought a lot of support and energy to her campaign and that has been neat to see," Dole said through a spokesman.

From Kay Hagan's spokeswoman: "Kay admires the fact that Sen. Dole went to law school when it wasn't common for women to attend."

See, was that so horrible? Now, let's all join hands and sing Kumbaya ... or not.

It's the Sunday before Election Day and North Carolina newspapers are taking their last big swings at the major races in the state. Different papers have different ways of approaching this, but you'll see a bit less of the he-said, she-said, Satan-said stories in the paper (the printed thing we through in your driveway) over the next couple days. The reason for this is that many newsrooms (mine is of this school of thought) believe voters are pretty much saturated with coverage. And with only a couple days to go, there's less time to correct errors or misperceptions news stories could create around a campaign among the stragglers.

That said, if something truly goofy or newsworthy happens, we're going to engage on it.

So what's doing on this last weekend of the regularly scheduled political season?

My friends over at the Legion of Dome were taking one last look at the Senate race for today's N+O, while Media General's Sean Mussenden argues the ghost of elections past may be fading. Gerald Witt, the hardest working guy in my newsroom, wrapped up early voting in Guilford County.

In Wilmington, Shelby Sebens does a story left incomplete on my to-do list and looks at local donors to the campaigns. Asheville's Jordan Schrader checked in with the light governor candidates - all the politics but one-third the power of an actual governor, fabulous for those of us trying to cut back on our political calorie intake.

And I would be remiss in omitting that for those who want to listen to their political coverage, WUNC's Laura Leslie has great gobs of political radio over at her joint.

Meanwhile, Here's my story from today's paper on Bev Perdue and Pat McCrory's race for Moldy Manner:

RALEIGH - It wasn't long after the May primary that Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory found a mantra for his run at the governor's mansion.

"My top priority as governor will be jobs, jobs, jobs," the Republican says in an ad he released this August.

Topics that dominated in the GOP primary - illegal immigration, road construction, inefficiency and corruption in state government - still have their place in his campaign against Democratic Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue. But it's the ailing economy, along with job creation, that has dominated McCrory's campaign rhetoric since before public school students went back to class this year.

Political strategists credit that focus for putting McCrory in a position to do something that the last four Charlotte mayors to try failed to do and that no Republican has managed in 16 years: win a race for governor.

"McCrory has benefited tremendously from his positioning on the issues," said Brad Crone, a Raleigh-based political strategist who works mainly for Democratic candidates. "Even before the financial meltdown, (polls showed) the number one issue was jobs and the economy."

The same financial crisis that forced the federal government to bail out some of the country's largest financial institutions and partially nationalize some banks has hit home for Tar Heels. The state's unemployment rate climbed to 7 percent in September, credit for home loans has become scarce, foreclosures are on the rise, and even some of the state's most stalwart companies, such as Wachovia, have been forced to merge with competitors.

It's not that Perdue was not talking about jobs. But she was also talking about an ambitious health care program to cover uninsured children, stem cell research, extending free community college tuition to in-state students and a bevy of other topics.

Click here for the whole thing.

Over at D-2008 we have Sen. Elizabeth Dole's new ad on Kay Hagan and the Godless Americans PAC as well as Hagan's push-back to the original ad and other good stuff.

Y'all come by.

From today's paper:

RALEIGH - Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue said Thursday that she would talk to her bitter rival from the Democratic primary about helping to manage the state's fiscal problems if she should win the election next week.

State Treasurer Richard Moore and Perdue fought a tough battle laced with personal attacks, including one in which Moore suggested Perdue might be racist. Moore has endorsed Perdue but has not appeared on the campaign trail for the Democratic nominee.

Perdue is now locked in a tight battle with Republican Pat McCrory, the mayor of Charlotte. In recent days, the two have argued over who best can handle the flagging economy and its impact on the state budget. Slowing tax collections are likely to force the next governor to find cuts, Perdue said.

"Maybe Richard (Moore) will have a role to play after the election," she said.

When asked if she was saying her former primary rival might serve in a Perdue administration, she said she had not talked to him about specifics. "I intend to have that conversation with him, because I think he's a good leader and a good man," she said.

Moore did not return calls to his office seeking comment Thursday afternoon.

On one level, the choice is logical. Moore is familiar with the state's finances, especially its borrowing. And he has served in the state legislature, so he is familiar with the somewhat Byzantine state budget process. But given the animus between Moore and Perdue during the primary, it is hard to imagine the pair working together.

Click here for the whole thing.

Jim Neal, who faced Kay Hagan in the U.S. Senate primary, is weighing in on the general election campaign. In particular, he takes aim at Dole's ad on Hagan suggesting Hagan may sympathize with a "Godless" agenda. From his piece on "The Daily Beast:"

Florence Nightingale unleashed her fangs yesterday. The Dole campaign lit up the airways with a stinging commercial suggesting that Democrat challenger Kay Hagan was other-than Godly and Democrats are seething. Kay is in fact an active member of the First Presbyterian Church in Greensboro. She attends Sunday School class regularly. She has served as a church elder. Dole’s attempt to smear her as a secularist is none other than just that. Local television and YouTube should be running a Hagan counter-attack ad tomorrow. I expect Kay will express outrage at anyone who would impugn her faith and then pivot back to her message emphasizing Dole’s voting record, absences from the state and high points of the 2008 Democrat Party economic playbook (i.e., knot a Bush around Dole’s neck.)

Click here for the whole thing. One wonders what kind of ads Dole may have launched based on Neal’s fundraising and endorsements.

Cross-posted from D-2008

-=-=-=-=-

Remember the story about state Sen. Kay Hagan taking money from "Godless Americans?"

It's back.

U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole, who is defending her seat against Hagan, has put an ad on the air, starting with newscasts that aired at 5 p.m. Tuesday night, that draws connections between Hagan and Godless Americans PAC.

The ad is based on the fact that Hagan attended a Boston fundraiser that was hosted by more than 30 people. Click here to see the invite.

It took place at the home of Wendy Kaminer and Woody Kaplan, who are leaders in secularist/atheist circles. Kaplan is a founder of Godless Americans PAC.

You can click here to see the text of the ad the Dole's campaign back-up for the claims.

Hagan, who is a church elder, said the ad misrepresents her views. In particular, she says she is incensed by a piece of the ad that shows her picture on screen while a woman's voice says, "There is no God."

I'll have a story on this in tomorrow's paper - you can read a draft after the jump of this post. I'm working on pulling down a copy of the 30-second spot, but you can see a longer non-televised spot by a National Republican Senatorial Committee here:

As I explain in the story, a politician just cannot get elected in North Carolina begin godless. Yes, on behalf of some voters there is a prejudice against different points of view. But far more, I have the sense, take it as a sign of arrogance or a lack of a certain moral barometer. (Note: I am NOT endorsing that view, just saying it is held by some voters.) It just does not play here.

With less than a week before Election Day, this is an aggressive move by Dole - who had to put her "I approve this message" line on the ad. The lack of time makes it harder to push-back against an ad, and the message is pretty severe.

On a side note, I've been writing stories that involved Hagan since 2001 and covered her in the legislature since 2005. This, bar none, is about as angry as I've ever heard her. The newspaper story is after the jump.

One day, the campaigns will end and I will go back to covering what these scurvy political critters actually do in office. Until then, here is another wacky – or is it? – political theory for you to ponder:

If Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, a Republican, wins the governor's mansion next week, he might have Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama to thank.

"A lot of Obama voters are not excited about him because he's a Democrat and they're not excited because he's a liberal," said John Davis, who studies elections for the pro-business group N.C. Free. "It's an anti-establishment thing. In the parlance of this election, it's change."

Plenty of voters going to the polls will vote for Obama and stick with Democrats down the ballot, Davis acknowledges.

But there's another group, he said, upset with how things are running in Washington and Raleigh and interested in new management. Democrats such as McCrory's rival, Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue, have held the governor's mansion for 16 years. Davis argues the "change voters" Obama is bringing to the polls in the presidential race might favor the Republican running for governor.

Andrew Taylor, a political science professor at N.C. State, agrees that McCrory could be getting help from Obama's change-focused campaign.

Click here for the full story.

From the lede of my story in Sunday's paper:

Everyone needs a haircut now and then, no matter whom they want to be the next president. That’s why Jackie Ruggiero tries to steer clear of politics when she works the second chair at Rob’s Barbershop on Main Street in Jamestown. Heated discussions don’t make for good haircuts — or repeat business.

But there’s always that one customer determined to chew over the subject, like an older gentleman whose haircut was in its final snips. He asked a younger man who had just stepped into the shop how he might vote. The younger man allowed as how he would probably back Democratic Sen. Barack Obama over Republican Sen. John McCain.

“The older man, you could see it, he turned red and he just went off ... about the differences and how Obama was a bad person,” Ruggiero said. “He got so riled — and he was just in this young guy’s face telling him he was not American if he voted that way. He ran out without his jacket and without paying for the haircut.”

For the record, the older man did go back to pay, collect his coat and dispense another volley of opinion. Such scenes, Ruggiero said, are becoming more common as Election Day approaches.

Throughout the state, supporters are turning out to candidate rallies by the hundreds and thousands. Folks who never so much as donned a campaign button are canvassing for votes. Simple chitchat can turn heated in a flash. At an Obama rally in Fayetteville, the tires of about 30 cars were slashed, and police arrested an Obama supporter for disorderly conduct when Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin spoke at Elon University. On both sides, emotions are running high.

Click here for the whole thing.

As per usual, the best thing about the story is the art that went with it. In this case, Tim Rickard provided the illustration:

From the D-2008 blog:

• * Things Robin Hayes and Sarah Palin have in common.

• * Clubbing U.S. Senate candidates with their own clubs, or what a whisper campaign might look like.

From Decision 2008: this is a look at voter registration figures in the state's 13 Congressional districts and what they may portend in terms of results.

-=-=-=-=-=-=

Back when voter registration closed, I asked the Board of Elections for a spreadsheet with each Congressional District broken down by party affiliation. The numbers will move somewhat between now and Election Day because of those who will register during early voting, but the percentages should hold up pretty well.

Click here for my handy-dandy spread-sheet, doctored up somewhat since the SBOE sent it along.

The thing that should jump out at you is that where one party has a majority of voters in the district - cases where more than 50 percent of voters are registered to one party - their party holds and is likely to keep that Congressional seat.

Cases where a party holds a plurality - they have more voters than the other guys but not more than 50 percent - is a good but NOT perfect predictor of which party holds the Congressional seat.

As an example: In the districts that claim pieces of Greensboro, Democrats have majorities in the 12th and 13th Congressional Districts and those districts are held by Reps. Mel Watt and Brad Miller, both Democrats. Further, it is unlikely that either of those men are going to lose their seats this year and if they do expect their losses to be picked apart by political scientists and the national media for months.

In Greensboro's other Congressional District, Republicans hold a plurality of voters and Republican Howard Coble has held the seat for the better part of two decades. It's important to know that there are plenty of Democrats who vote for Coble because they've met him or he's provided them some constituent service or they just like his style. Also, more than 20 percent of the voters in the district are unaffiliated, which means they may have political leanings but they're not showing their hands for whatever reason. A loss by Coble to challenger Teresa Sue Bratton would be surprising but you could, maybe, construct an argument for it in the context of a national wave - but writers like me would be using words like "stunning" to describe the upset.

The two districts in North Carolina that have run counter to party registration advantage are the 3d Congressional District, a Democratic leaning district held by Republican Walter Jones, and the 8th Congressional District, a Democratic leaning district held by Robin Hayes.

In the 3d, the Democratic plurality is relatively weak, only 42 percent. That leaves plenty of independent voters for Jones to win over. Historically, Democrats down there are moderate-to-conservative, which means they are open to voting Republican for national offices. And Jones has taken some cross-party/moderate stands as of late, possibly endearing him to some Democrats. For example, earlier this year he was one of only three Republicans who voted to hold Joshua Bolten and Harriet Miers in contempt of Congress for failing to testify and provide documents relevant regarding the firing of federal prosecutors.

Hayes nearly lost his 8th District seat two years ago and the registration numbers tell me he's darned closed to the tipping point. Democrats are within rounding error of having a majority of voters in the district, while Republican voters make up only a quarter of the district. That means if unaffiliated voters break even slightly against Hayes, he could be in big trouble. And, of course, this is the one Congressional race in the state where either national political party is dumping big money.

Based on the numbers and historical voting patters, the only Congressional district I would expect to see flip this year would be the 8th, where Hayes may lose to school teacher Larry Kissel. Numerically, a Jones loss in the 3d shouldn’t be a surprise but I think there is more going on locally there than the numbers reflect. Any other incumbent losses would be surprising.

Local to Greensboro, the numbers and historical trends say that Coble will win but maybe not with the 60-plus-to-70-plus percent of the vote he is used to pulling down. Bratton has given Coble a good run, but something fundamental in the numbers or the campaign that I just do not see right now would need to change in a hurry for her to pull off the upset.

Newspaper stories from Palin's rally from myself and Joe Killian.

-=-=-=-=-=-=-

Update: Bloggers note: there is editing throughout this post at 10 a.m. or so this morning to clean up grammar and spelling errors committed at the end of a 16 hour day. As well, some fixes have been made with regards to quote marks that did not publish correctly. My apologies to the English teachers in the audience.

-=-=-=-=-=-=-

There are certain things that get me really concerned when I hear them from someone I'm working with. Joe Killian (who blogs for the paper here and on his own time here) added a new one to my list:

Joe was working with me on a package for tomorrow's newspaper covering Gov. Sarah Palin's visit to Elon and Greensboro.

"Dude," he says when I called to check on him. "Some guy just kicked me in the back of the leg."

Let me just digress for a second. I sometimes supervise people. Much more often, I work in teams with folks. I'm usually the old fart in the group so I feel responsible for them. The last thing I ever want to hear is that one of my people got hurt on assignment. Usually the worry has to do with covering a traffic accident along a highway or a natural disaster like a flood, where conditions are inherently dangerous.

What I don't expect is for some troglodyte at a campaign rally to decide that the proper way to express his frustration with Democrats, Barack Obama or the "left-wing liberal media" is to commit assault on a colleague.

Here's the back-story:

As you probably know, the crowds at McCain-Palin events have gotten, um, saucy as of late. My boss blogs about that here.

Covering Sen. John McCain's appearance in Wilmington Monday, you could definitely sense some of that vibe.

Cut to today, Palin in town. In general, I walked in sensing the crowd had a more positive vibe than the McCain rally.

That changed when I heard a ruckus behind me. A couple folks there for the rally called campaign staff over, complaining about people several rows back chanting "Obama" when the rest of the crowd cheered at Palin's applause lines. Obnoxious? Yes. But I dig me some First Amendment.

The campaign staff dutifully fetched a couple of police officers who dutifully threw the handful of individuals out. I watched just to make sure ruckus didn't develop into something more. That apparently gave other McCain-Palin supporters license to yell at me.

"Hey! Hey you! The story's up there," yelled one point at the stage. "You don't need to worry about that. The story is up there."

The presence of a barricade, the more pressing need of gathering a story and, well, that whole First Amendment thing just led me to ignore them. They can pop off if they like.

Joe was near a second group of protestors who got tossed. And he got some push back for investigating as well. After the rally wound down, he went to find some Obama folks and see if he could talk to who got put out.

That's when at least one guy from the crowd decided he needed to interject his opinion into the conversation. As Joe tells it:

I sidled up to one of the Obama supporters and asked why they were there, what they were trying to accomplish.

As he was telling me a large, bearded man in full McCain-Palin campaign regalia got in his face to yell at him.

"Hey, hey, " I said. "I'm trying to interview him. Just a minute, okay? "

The man began to say something about how of course I was interviewing the Obama people when suddenly, from behind us, the sound of a pro-Obama rap song came blaring out of the windows of a dorm building. We all turned our heads to see Obama signs in the windows.

This was met with curses, screams and chants of "U.S.A" by McCain-Palin folks who crowded under the windows trying to drown it out and yell at the person playing the stereo.

It was a moment of levity in an otherwise very tense situation and so I let out a gentle chuckle and shook my head.

"Oh, you think that 's funny?! " the large bearded man said. His face was turning red. "Yeah, that 's real funny…" he said.

And then he kicked the back of leg, buckling my right knee and sending me sprawling onto the ground.

There was no cop or security officer around to report this lugnut to, and Joe resisted the temptation to smack the guy back, which I commend. But let me say this: the guy who attacked Joe is a criminal, no better that the lunk-head who steals your car stereo or snatches a purse.

Do I hold the McCain campaign responsible? Not entirely. No one on their staff said, "Hey, after the event, go smack around a reporter."

Although, I will say that complaints about "the media," "mainstream media," "Eastern media elite," etc... have become a pervasive in Republican talking points, increasingly so as we get closer to the election. I've heard the complaints from folks like U.S. Sen. Richard Burr and certainly both Palin and McCain have used those phrases in their speeches. Then, there are the opening lines of Hank Williams Jr.'s campaign theme song for McCain-Palin: "The leftwing liberal media have always been a real close-knit family, but most of the American people, don't believe them anyway you see."

Fair enough. We're big boys and girls who put ourselves out there and part of the job is tacking flak from both sides. Certainly I have heard complaints from Democrats about "the media" and have been accused of being too conservative. But I have never had the sense that a Democrat was going to get physical in that kind of way. Even though McCain and Palin have taken a kinder gentler tone in their speeches, there was still a real undercurrent of anger at the rallies I covered this week.

After today I'm wondering - and this is just wondering at this point - whether Republicans aren't in some respect giving their supporters license for this sort of crap. If the story you peddle is that your guys are the good guys and all those who stand against them are the bad guys, and the "liberal media" is in that second column, might there be a message there – even if it is one that is misconstrued and carried to a stupid extreme in some cases?

Full disclosure: I'm not real happy with the McCain campaign today. After the Elon event Palin did a fundraiser and I was told the local pool would be able to cover that. It's a major reason I took the pool assignment. I was told mid-way through my day that the fundraiser would be closed. And I just found out that the campaign tossed a one-on-one to an out-of-town competitor rather than to the paper that staffed their pool today.

But that's peanuts, mere whining, an issue of protocol. This other thing with Joe reflects something far more troubling. I just hope it's not a trend.

Update: Click here for the story from Tuesday's paper.

Cross-posted from D-2008.

-=-=-=-=-

I trucked down to Wilmington for John McCain’s appearance there today. I had forgotten how well the man can deliver a speech because his debate performances have been very average. But today, he was in good form and had the crowd fired up.

There’s one odd thing that had my colleagues in the local and national media puzzled after the event. From the story I’m working on for Tuesday’s paper:

McCain’s appearance was marked by an unannounced shift in plans. The occasion was to be a “town hall meeting” according to publicity that preceded the event. And McCain himself started his remarks by saying, “My friends, I’d like to make some remarks to you and then I’d like to open it up for some questions or comments you might have.”

But at the end of his speech, speakers blared “Gonna Fly Now,” the theme from Rocky, and McCain moved about the front rows of the audience shaking hands. Then he left the auditorium, well before the next appointment - a media interview - listed on the schedule given to members of the traveling press.

A spokesman who talked to pool reporters traveling with the McCain Monday said the decision to shift to a rally rather than a town hall meeting was made on Sunday and could not explain why McCain said he would take questions. A second spokesman, contacted after the event, said the campaign wanted to emphasize the new speech, which offered “a different tone” than had prevailed over the past several weeks.

The response from the campaign isn’t all that satisfying and leaves one to speculate if one is so inclined. What could explain the change? Some options:

• * McCain was short on time. This seems unlikely because, according to my friends in the traveling press corps, he didn’t have anything on his public schedule until well after he strolled out of the auditorium at Cape Fear Community College today. He did two media interviews (both with television types) and shot a commercial before leaving the state.

• * McCain forgot about the switch. Actually, I’m willing to buy this one in part. The guy has done so many events his opening lines become sort of reflexive. He was working from a teleprompter today but it sounded like he was ad libbing a bit at the beginning of his speech. Still, you’d think someone on staff would have said, “Now remember boss, today’s all about the new stump speech, no questions.”

• * The audience might not have accommodated that "different tone" and once the campaign workers took the temperature of the crowd they decided they didn’t want to give anyone openings to call Sen. Obama a terrorist.

As the Associated Press noted in this story, even some Republicans have grown uncomfortable with the tenor of attacks leveled by McCain at Obama in recent weeks. From the AP story:

NDIANAPOLIS (AP) - Three weeks before the election, Republicans are growing increasingly concerned about John McCain's ability to mount a comeback, questioning his tactics and even his campaign's main thrust in a White House race increasingly focused on economic turmoil.

"He has to make the case that he's different than Bush and better than Obama on the economy," said former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, one of more than a dozen prominent Republicans who in interviews during the past week expressed concern over the course of McCain's bid. "If he doesn't win that case, it's all over, and it's going to be a very bad year for Republicans."

Several Republicans, who spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid angering McCain, said the campaign should have sought to plant doubts about Obama's associations with 1960s-era radical William Ayers and others months ago, rather than waiting until the campaign's final weeks. Doing so now, they said, makes the 72-year-old McCain come off as angry, grouchy and desperate, playing into Democrats' hands.

But if you read my blog post from earlier today, you know there were people in the crowd willing to sing from that more hostile hymnal.

So what was going on? Was it a last-minute switch designed to avoid stories about how rabid the crowds at McCain rallies have become or truly contemplated a day in advance and McCain just misspoke? Well, more than one person told me today that it was fruitless to ask since, as one put it bluntly, “They’re all going to lie to you anyway.”

Your speculation welcome at the comments link below.

From today's paper:

If television commercials are to be believed, the U.S. Senate campaign features a Republican ne’er-do-well incumbent in league with an unpopular president versus a snippy state senator with a penchant for raising taxes and apron strings tied to powerful Democratic figures.

It’s hyperbole, to be sure.

Neither U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole, the Republican incumbent, nor Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan live up to the images on TV ads of late — for good or ill.

But who are the women portrayed in these ads? Have they been effective legislators?

Is there some truth in advertising?

Click here to read the whole thing, although the best bit about the story is the illustration on the front page:

(Click for a PDF) The illustration was by designer Ben Villarreal.

This New York Times story has gotten people's attention this morning. It suggests that North Carolina is somehow using Social Security numbers to exclude people form the voter rolls.

State and local election officials I talked to this morning say that's simply not the case. I just posted this to online:

A report in the New York Times this morning saying that North Carolina is improperly using Social Security Numbers to vet voters was called “very misleading” by the state’s chief election official this morning.

The Times story said that North Carolina had been warned that it was checking an abnormally large number of social security numbers against a federal database and that federal officials were worried the state could be improperly excluding voters.

But Elections Director Gary Bartlett said Social Security Numbers were only being checked in the case where a drivers’ license or other acceptable form of identification has not been provided.

“We believe we’re in full compliance and they’re providing misinformation and stirring up the public and that is not good,” Bartlett said. The story, he said, has caused a non-stop stream of calls and e-mails to his office this morning.

North Carolina has registered more than 700,000 new voters since the beginning of the year and may top 800,000 by Nov. 1. Of those, about 400,000 have been run through the federal Social Security database.

The state, Bartlett said, had a high number of universities, military personnel and businesses that bring people in from out of state. Often those people don’t have drivers’ likenesses when they register to vote and therefore use their Social Security Number to verify their identity.

No one is denied registration if their Social Security number does not match said Bartlett and local elections officials.

“The worse case scenario is they show ID at the polls when they show up,” said Charlie Collicutt, deputy elections director in Guilford County.

If a voter still doesn’t have identification on Election Day, Bartlett said, they would be allowed to vote a provision ballot that will be counted once their information is confirmed.

Names are not removed from the voter rolls based on a Social Security number mismatch, said both state and county officials.

Bartlett said the state was contacted by neither the New York Times nor federal officials and today’s story was a surprise.

“No one has called us, no one has suggested we’re not in compliance,” Bartlett said.

Update: Three bits of updates for you:

• * A news release from Bob Hall at Democracy North Carolina taking up for the State Board of Elections:

  The harder problem continues to be cynical rumors and false information from ill-informed, sometimes well-intended, sources, now including the New York Times (and local re-printers who failed to check the story with state election officials). Certainly, there have been serious problems with lost ballots and election manipulation. The public should remain vigilant, and individuals with any doubts should confirm their registration status through websites like 2008ElectionConnection.com or by calling their local board of elections. What we don’t need are inflammatory stories about stolen elections or cheated voters that have no basis in fact.

• * A news release from Elections Director Gary Bartlett who gives in detail, and three part harmony, why the Times story was incorrect, at least as it pertains to North Carolina:

  No reporter for either publication contacted any one in this office to verify North Carolina’s procedures. Nor did the Commissioner of the Social Security Administration contact us before he released his allegations that North Carolina may be preventing voters from registering; instead he sent a letter to the Secretary of State, who does not administer elections in North Carolina, and we had to obtain a copy from a national organization.

• * And for you fun with numbers types, click here for the spreadsheet that started the mess.

Regarding that last bit, the folks at the Social Security Administration sent me that Excel file in response to my questions about what exactly they were thinking. Their press release is here, but essentially they said higher than expected usage of the database caught their attention.

Those higher volumes, according to administration spokesman Mark Lassiter, prompted worries that states may be improperly keeping people from registering to vote.

“It really was an issue of saying, ‘Look, we want to be sure that nobody who is registered to vote is prevented from doing so,’” Lassiter said.

Fair enough, I guess, but it basically sort of cast aspersions on the whole electoral process here in North Carolina without producing any evidence that anything was done wrong.

A few notes from the numbers game:

• * If you look at that spreadsheet, you'll see less than a quarter of the checks are coming up mismatched. So, if you're looking to exclude folks, this social security method wouldn't be the best way to go about it.

• * One thing that neither the New York Times nor Bartlett pointed out today was that this is North Carolina's first time as a battleground state in a presidential campaign. So in addition to military voters, college students and new people moving to the state, you're going to be registering a higher than normal number of people who have never voted before.

From the weekend papers:

• *The Agriculture Commissioner race: Republican Browns Summit (that's in Guilford County, y'all) farmer wants to hold his seat against Democrat Ronnie Ansley.

• *Crime and punishment in the Attorney General's race: Incumbent Democrat Roy Cooper hopes to fend off Republican challenger Bob Crumley, whose law firm is based in Greensboro.

• *Polar bears and politics: a piece that held (read: sat around and got stale) about Sarah Palin, Brad Miller and polar bears.

Also of interest to political folks: the News & Record editorial board endorsed Kay Hagan in the U.S. Senate race. (Disclaimer: I have absolutely nothing to do with endorsement decisions.)

Regular readers know I like me some polar bears. But what do polar bears, a local Congressman and the Republican's vice presidential nominee have in common?

Glad you asked.

A story from the Guardian popped into my news reader last night, that said:

"The Republican Sarah Palin and her officials in the Alaskan state government drew on the work of at least six scientists known to be skeptical about the dangers and causes of global warming, to back efforts to stop polar bears being protected as an endangered species, the Guardian can disclose. Some of the scientists were funded by the oil industry."

Right, but why was it showing up in a feed reserved for local federal officials? Because:

The citation by Palin and her officials prompted complaints from Congress. One member, Brad Miller, dubbed the polar bear study phony science.

Palin told Miller: "Attempts to discredit scientists ... simply because their analyses do not agree with your views, would be a disservice to this country." Miller now says that Palin's use of the paper shows she differs greatly from John McCain, the Republican presidential contender, who has pressed for scientific integrity. "Turning to the cottage industry of scientists who are funded because they spread doubt about global warming is not integrity," Miller said.

I'm not sure this is exactly breaking news, but it is interesting how something going on in a Science subcommittee that has a local connection (through Miller) can wrap back into the presidential campaign. I'm not sure any of this discussion will change the minds of those who take global warming or the lack thereof as an article of faith.

The upshot here is this: Miller was calling out Palin for using research funded by oil companies in Alaska's state-sponsored effort to fight the placement of polar bears on the endangered species list. Palin contended the research was just fine, while Miller and others on the Science Committee in Congress contend that global warming is happening and we should look out for the polar bears. Polar Bears were listed as a threatened species in May, 2008.

For those inclined to step into the Wayback Machine:

• * You can get video of a Congressional hearing on the topic here. The video link is on the right. There's lots of other nifty background there as well.

• * Here's a news release from Miller on Exxon and polar bears.

• * This is a letter from Miller to the Interior Department saying he's worried about the administration moves to keep government scientist from talking about the threat to polar bears.

• * This is a letter from Palin telling Miller he ought not to be picking on the oil-company-funded scientists.

• * Miller also asked Exxon mobile to make with some information regarding the funding they put toward global warming research.

• * And this is a letter from Exxon blowing off Miller's request for grant information and saying that at least one of the studies in question is just fine.

Why is it that this:

made me think of this:

Perhaps some explanation is in order.

Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue, a Democrat, and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, a Republican (along with Libertarian Mike Munger) are running for governor. Perdue and McCrory have, in particular, been partaking in all the festive back-and-forth that has come to characterize our democratic process.

Among the things Perdue is doing is trying to tie McCrory to Bush. Bush has held fundraisers for the mayor and McCrory often talks about serving on the president's Homeland Security Council, so it ain't hard.

At any rate, Bush's approval ratings are pretty much in the dumps, so the political theory goes that if you tie McCrory to Bush voters will reject one because they don't like the other.

So today a nice young lady from the Perdue campaign dropped by the office to deliver ... wait for it ... as shrubbery...one that looks nice and is not too expensive.

The idea, of course, was to remind reporters of McCrory's ties to Bush. From our brief chat, I learned she was also stopping by the offices of other political reporting types.

At any rate, Ol' Shrub over there sent my mind wandering to the famous Monty Python sketch.

Come to think of it, Monty Python could have quite a time with any one of several elections 'round these parts. Of course, now I have to go consult the bosses on the ethical way to handle the delivery of a shrubbery to ones office.

Cross-posted from D-2008.

-=-=-=-

Sen. Barack Obama rolled into Greensboro with his running-mate, Joe Biden.

Sunday's main-bar.

Sunday's color story.

Prepared text of Obama's speech.

Audio of Obama's speech:

Pictures from the day:

Cross-posted from Decision 2008.

-=-=-=-=-

From Sunday's story on education in the governor's race:

Should every high school student strive to go to college?

That seemingly academic question lies at the heart of what may be the fiercest education policy dispute between gubernatorial candidates Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory.

"There's no data on that on either side," said Robert Serow, a professor of educational leadership at N.C. State. "It's really an ethical issue or a moral issue, or some would see it as a matter of common sense."

Whether a matter of ethics or common sense, it is a question that not only has immense implications for the state's $21.4 billion budget and your children, but also for the kind of economy the state will try to foster.

Click here to read the whole thing.

Hear from the candidates themselves:

• **McCrory talks education during the N+R editorial board interview. (McCrory talks a fair bit about "vouchers" for college students, which I would characterize as "scholarships" and not really the same thing.) He's a bit loquacious so I included a second clip here, where he talks about "academic elitism."

• **Perdue chats about education via phone.

• **Libertarian candidate Mike Munger chats about education via phone.

Now, some more linkage:

• * My handy clip-and-save graphic. It includes stances on various education issues. (This is a draft so a couple grammatical things have been fixed in the print version.)
• * My Governor's capsules.
• * AEI's Charles Murray makes his case for less college here and here
• * The more college argument from The National Center for Higher Education Management Systems.
• * Perdue's education policy page.
• * McCrory's education policy page.
• * Munger's page that talks about school choice.

There goes my weekend. Sens. Obama and Biden will be in Greensboro Saturday.

Yesterday I wrapped up a few details regarding ads aired by Attorney General candidate Bob Crumley's law firm. The SBOE ruled those ads constituted election speech and said he should cut them out, which he has.

A couple more loose ends to tie up here:

Rep. Bill Faison is in the same sort of business as Crumley and similarly has appeared in advertisements for his law firm.

The NC Republican Party has complained about those ads to the SBOE and the SBOE has written Faison to alert him to their rulings.

Click here for a PDF that has the complaint from the GOP and the SBOE's letter to Faison. Sorry, I haven't been able to find any video of the ads and have never seen on of Faison's on the television - I guess I don't watch enough daytime TV.

I also heard from Kim Westbrook Strach, an SBOE official who handles campaign finance matters and who was unavailable last week. She pointed to quotes in Monday's newspaper story from Crumley that suggested the sitting Attorney General, Roy Cooper, had been advising the SBOE on this matter. Strach said that the SBOE had separate council from the AG's office precisely because of the potential conflict.

News that President Bush was due to visit Greensboro later this month got me thinking about why the Gate City is such as popular stop for pols. (Barack and Michelle Obama have been here and John McCain stopped by for a fundraiser earlier this year.)

Perhaps this interactive map from Men's Health provides an explanation. As my friend and colleague Mike Fuchs wrote recently:

Greensboro is pretty good at playing politics, so says a recent magazine survey.

Men's Health magazine ranked Greensboro as the sixth most political city in the nation.

That's based on factors including the percentage of citizens registered to vote, the percentage who participated in the most recent senatorial and gubernatorial elections, the 2004 presidential election and the 2008 presidential primaries.

So who's number 1? Raleigh.

"Clarence Lightner would be proud," the magazine says. "He was the pioneering politician who in 1973 became one of the first African American mayors of a Southern city - one in which a majority of voters were white. As it turns out, not much has changed in 35 years: Raleigh's residents will vote as if they're about to make history."

Back in July, I wrote about AG candidate Bob Crumley, a Republican from the Greensboro area, and his television commercials. What he described as an image ad struck me very much like a campaign commercial, a fact that Crumley disputed at the time.

Prior posts here and here. The ad itself:

After I wrote about the ad, the state Democratic Party filed a complaint about it.

Separately, Crumley and his law firm had asked the state board of elections another set of questions about law firm advertising. Primarily, they wanted to know whether a guy who owns a law firm can continue to appear in his law firms commercials in a 60-day window before the election, which is handled differently under election law.

As it turns out, whether you think the image ad is legit law firm solicitation or not, the answer to this second question is "no." That's according to the state board of elections.

Click here for today's story.

For background: This notice ran in the North Carolina Register on Sept. 15. And click here for more correspondence between the campaign and the SBOE.

Crumley contends that the SBOE ruling is wrong-headed but said he's not going to fight it so he can pursue his campaign and says he'll take it up after the election. He told me last week that it has cost him $10,000 to pull his image and name from the law firm's ads.

I'm told that there are legislative candidates, including at least one Democratic legislator, who this ruling may end up affecting.

Cross-posted from D-2008

-=-=-=-

As with the candidates for governor, the editorial board filmed their interviews with the Democratic and Republican candidates for U.S. Senate. The following are three segments our tech fellows turned out from the conversations with State Sen. Kay Hagan, a Democrat, and Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole. (The editorial board chose not to interview the libertarian in the race, so send your cards, letters and angry e-mails to Allen Johnson.)

In this case, the video segments don't match up on topic, so I'll give you Hagan's first, and then Dole's. Enjoy.

Hagan: Working across party lines

Hagan: Energy and drilling

Hagan: Healthcare

-=-=-=-=-=-=-

Dole: Immigration

Dole

Dole: Iraq war spending

Dole: No Child Left Behind

Cross-posted from D-2008.

-=-=-=-=-

A couple weeks ago, the editorial board had the Democratic and Republican candidates in for interviews. They did not interview libertarian Mike Munger, and you can send your cards and letters to Editorial Page Editor Allen Johnson on that one.

At any rate, they put the candidates in our multimedia studio, turned on the spot lights and grilled while filming. Our tech boys (they're all men) turned out a few bits of film on each.

Both Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue, a Democrat, and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, were asked about their stance on the death penalty and the de facto moratorium.

McCrory

Perdue

And both were asked to talk about energy policy and drilling.

Perdue

McCrory

In addition, here's a bit with McCrory talking about gangs, something he has made a bit of a signature issue:

Finally, here's Perdue chatting a bit about education, community colleges and illegal immigrants.

Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue has brought the somewhat volatile topic of stem cell research into the gubernatorial campaign, both through a policy statement on the topic and a recent ad:

When asked about the ad last night, McCrory said, "I've never heard her bring up this subject in her eight years as Lt. Governor."

However, the topic has come up.

Greensboro Rep. Earl Jones, a Democrat, ran this bill, which was a tamer version of earlier proposals. The latest draft of the bill, which passed the House but died in the Senate, would only have led to research guidelines for stem cell research. Earlier proposals would have put state funding into embryonic stem cell research.

State funding is now something that Perdue says she favors.

More background on that legislative discussion here, here, here and here.

I asked Jones about the issue coming up in the campaign, and he said that Perdue was supportive when the bill crossed over from the House to the Senate.

"She called me directly," Jones said. "Perdue was very supportive; she was the first person in the Senate to call me."

Jones rightly said his bill got bogged down by the political debate surrounding embryonic stem cells. In particular, some people who oppose abortion tend to oppose embryonic stem cell research and bring intense and vocal pressure to bear.

You can find more on the topic from the National Academy of Sciences and the Boston Globe, which has a whole page dedicated to the topic. (It's a bit out of date now, but worth a read anyway.) Also, the topic seems to be bubbling up in the presidential campaign.

Cross-posted from Decision 2008.

-=-=-=-=-

In this post from over the weekend, I talked about state Sen. Kay Hagan and her position on unions. Specifically, the Democrat who is trying to unseat Republican Elizabeth Dole told our editorial board she might favor a federal policy that would force states like North Carolina to allow public employees to collectively bargain.

Cutting to the chase, Hagan says she misspoke. But a little background: For those who might have missed it, there's audio in the original post. But this exchange between Hagan and editorial writer Doug Clark will give you a flavor of what I'm talking about:

Clark: "This is (about) collective barging for public employees. So, North Carolina law doesn't allow that. But would you support federal legislation that would mandate recognition of collective bargaining writes for state employees?

Hagan: "Not mandate it, but I would look at having the collective bargaining process available if the employees so voted on that."

Clark: "If the employees...?"

Hagan: "They would have the authority to make that decision."

Clark: "So, if the NCAE wanted collective bargaining rights, you would support that?"

Hagan: "Yes."

Clark: "Even though current state law currently prohibits that?"

Hagan: "Yes."

A spokesman for the campaign called me over the weekend to say Hagan was confused and didn't mean to say that, that in fact she would not support such a law. Because that was in direct contradiction of several direct quotes, I asked to hear from Hagan herself.

Hagan called me this morning while I was on the line with someone else, but left a voice mail. I've posted a portion of it here, so you can hear straight from here. It cuts off abruptly at the end because she launches into a phone number that probably doesn't need to be on the internets.

Click here for the audio of that.

"Once I'm elected to the U.S. Senate, I want you to know that I will never support a bill at the federal level that mandates states allow collective bargaining of state government employees. I truly believe that's a state's rights issue," Hagan said.

As the football announcers say: you make the call.

Cross-posted from Decision 2008.

-=-=-=-=-=-

From Saturday's paper: this story laying out the U.S. Senate candidate's position on a couple of union-related issues.

The summary is this: Incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole is no fan of legislation that would make it easier for folks to unionize or any legislation that would force North Carolina to allow public employees to collectively bargain.

State Sen. Kay Hagan, a Greensboro Democrat, didn't offer up an absolute endorsement of either of those ideas, but was fairly friendly toward them.

Click here to listen to Hagan's answers.

Click here to listen to Dole's.

And then click here for thoughts from editorial writer Doug Clark.

Some after action notes: This difference in positions could bolster the NRSC's narrative that Hagan is seeking support from traditional national Democratic strongholds, including big labor. (Click here for an example of that.)

After my story ran, a spokeswoman with the campaign wrote to say she would not be in favor of a federal law over-riding North Carolina's law prohibiting collective bargaining for public employees.

I think Kay was confused by the premise of the question, and inferred that he was talking about EFCA and not the separate issue of the federal govt. mandating that states allow public employees to collectively bargain. She would support public employees being allowed to collectively bargain (NCAE for example) if state law allowed that and the employees voted to do so. But fundamentally she believes that public employees being allowed to collectively bargain is a state's right issue.

Respectfully, that's was not the case. Clark asked this question several different ways during the editorial board interview, which you can her via the link above. You can listen to the segment yourself, but here's one fairly clear exchange:

Clark: "This is (about) collective barging for public employees. So, North Carolina law doesn't allow that. But would you support federal legislation that would mandate recognition of collective bargaining writes for state employees?

Hagan: "Not mandate it, but I would look at having the collective bargaining process available if the employees so voted on that."

Clark: "If the employees...?"

Hagan: "They would have the authority to make that decision."

Clark: "So, if the NCAE wanted collective bargaining rights, you would support that?"

Hagan: "Yes."

Clark: "Even though current state law currently prohibits that?"

Hagan: "Yes."

I'm not seeing a whole lot of ambiguity or confusion in those answers. By way of fuller disclosure, she was asked about her answers after the main part of the editorial board interview was over (but before she left the room) and confirmed them.

Every year when Hurricanes start rolling into the state, Gov. Mike Easley goes through a predictable series of steps. He gets his emergency response guys together and holds press conferences telling folks to stockpile water and food and generally stay safe. As the storm gets closer, he switches from business suits to what we scruffy media types call "disaster casual," kaki pants and opened collared shirts with logos. After the storm, he goes riding about in a helicopter to survey the damage, declares disasters, etc... You know, governor stuff.

So a couple of news releases from Sen. Dole's office had us confused. Here's the latest:

Friday, September 5, 2008 6:15 p.m. MEDIA AVAILABILITY

Dole will meet with the North Carolina State Emergency Response Team (SERT) to discuss preparations for Tropical Storm Hanna and Hurricane Ike. Yesterday, Dole spoke with North Carolina Governor Mike Easley, Department of Homeland Security Undersecretary for Federal Emergency Management R. David Paulison, who heads the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and officials at the American Red Cross to help coordinate an effective response to the severe weather.

North Carolina Emergency Operations Center
Administration Building
116 West Jones Street
Raleigh, N.C.

It's not just that senators don't have a whole lot to do in disaster given that whole lack of executive authority thing. Honestly, I can't remember her ever doing this before for any previous hurricane.

You don't think this could have something to do with it being an election year, do you?

Update: I had ask Dole's office this afternoon if she had ever done anything like this. I got a response back saying that she had and listing all the times. The problem with the list is most (if not all) are touring damage after the fact, not getting ready for it. But by way of full disclosure, I'll post the list after the jump. My point remains that there's not much for a federal (or state-level) legislator to do in preparation for a hurricane.

Update 2:And by way of fuller disclosure, Dole spokesman Wes Climer takes issue with my characterization, saying that Senators have a role in marshaling the resources of the federal government and "encourage and advise" on the placement of public resources.

"Senators work with state officials and federal officials to ensure a smooth response," he said.

Even after hearing that, I'm still am a bit dubious. But here's the jump, and you can look through this list yourself and decide.

Cross-posted from Decision 2008.

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

North Carolina Republicans opened their Triad “Victory Office” this afternoon. These things are joint operations between Arizona Sen. John McCain’s presidential campaign and the state party.

Should you be inclined to stop by, this one is in High Point near the N.C. 68 and Wendover intersection. The address is 3800 Tinsley Road.

As noted in my my first-take story, former Senator and presidential candidate Bob Dole was on hand to celebrate the opening.

Those doing the speechifying today were particularly upbeat about Republican chances in November. Part of that had to do with the nature of the event. But there was a bit of genuine optimism emanating from the GOP faithful that I haven’t heard from them in a while.

Click here to listen to Sen. Richard Burr give his take as to why Republicans might win more races this fall. Short answer: he thinks the party has better candidates this time around.

Congressman Howard Coble also gave a go-get-‘em speech, which surprised me a little bit because from December through this spring he’s been talking about “a very difficult year.” So has he changed his mind?

Click here for Coble’s answer, which started “No, I’m still pessimistic.” He said that McCain’s chances were improving, but the real bright spot on the ballot was Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, who is running for governor. In particular, he said there seems to be growing sentiment that its time for a change in the executive office that plays, ironically enough, off Obama’s message of change.

More pictures of the ribbon cutting...

...and Laura Wiley sporting her convention outfit:

I spent some time researching and writing on energy policy in the U.S. Senate race this week. For those who might have forgotten, your players are incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole, Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan and Libertarian Chistopher Cole.

Click here for Sunday's story on the energy policy debate.

And click here to read the graphic that accompanies the story in the Sunday paper. (PDF)

Both Hagan and Dole did events this week where they talked energy policy. Dole visited with the Chamber of Commerce down in Lincolnton to chat about economic issues, which pretty much is headlined by gas prices and energy policy these days. Hagan visited the wind power demonstration site run by Appalachian State, wanting to highlight her commitment to non-petroleum energy sources.

Click here to listen to a portion of my conversation with Dole. We start out talking nuclear and end up on her telling how she went about turning the lights off in her hotel room that morning.

To read more from Dole on energy policy:

• * a recent blog post laying out some ideas. She also includes some bullet points on energy in her economic security plan.

• * a floor statement from July 23 on energy policy.

• * A June 4 floor statement on the climate security act.

• * more from Dole’s Senate office.

Click here to listen to a portion of my conversation with Hagan. We were talking at the top of Beech Mountain standing under the wind turbines, so I apologize for the wind blowing in your ear during this clip.

For more from Hagan on energy policy:

• * This is her campaign’s energy plan.

• * Back during the primary, Hagan put a campaign ad on the air concerning energy:

Cole isn’t on the campaign stump regularly, but did send along an e-mail after we chatted over the phone, highlighting his differences with the other two candidates. I’ll paste that after the jump.

And of course, your thoughts are welcome at the comments link.

Cross-posted from Decision 2008.

-=-=-=-=-

Update: From a story in today's paper:

"If I had never done advertising before and all of a sudden came up with television ads, you might have an argument there," Crumley said. "But I'm not doing anything that I didn't do before."

[snip]

"You can't watch that thing without thinking it's an ad for someone running for office," said Bob Phillips, who heads the North Carolina branch of Common Cause, a public-interest advocacy group that has lobbied for more stringent campaign finance rules.

Click here for the whole thing.

-=-=-=-=-=-

Related to Bob Crumley's image ad, the state Democratic Party has filed a complaint against Crumley. The complaint, filed with the SBOE and signed by the party's executive director, reads in part:

Without disclosure of who is paying for the advertisements and how much is being spent, voters will have no information regarding the sponsorship of this apparent effort to influence the 2008 election.

Clearly, the sponsoring entity is violating the law, and I ask that the Board investigate these advertisements and any other communications for which disclosure is required.

Click here for the full letter.

More in tomorrow's paper.

For those who haven't seen it, here's the ad:

The U.S. Senate race here in North Carolina officially has the third with the addition of Libertarian Chris Cole.

Cross-posted from Decision 2008.

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

I wrote back in February is the about a Bob Crumley commercial that seemed as if it might have some campaign implications.

Crumley is a Republican Greensboro-area lawyer running for Attorney General against Roy Cooper, the Democratic incumbent.

I noticed this weekend that Crumley is running a new ad. The tag line refers people to his law firm's web page. But you tell me: does the ad seem more like a commercial one might use in a campaign?

I'll have more notes from yesterday's American's for Prosperity rally, including some of what former U.S. Senate majority leader Bob Dole had on his mind.

But the barkeep is going to call in my tab unless I post some low-quality video I shot of Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, the Republican candidate for governor, playing the drums.

First a pic.

I'm told that McCrory has hopped on drum sets before and that it's something he quite likes doing a public events. His musical set preceded a speech that decried the status quo in Raleigh and called for - shock - a change in leadership.

At any rate, here's what it sounded like with McCrory on drums and AFP's Dallas Woodhouse (not pictured) on vocals.

With any luck, I'll have time to deal with some substance later.

After reading some truly silly stuff about whether North Carolina might or might not be "in play" for the General Election, I decided to write my own.

More cogent thoughts here, here, here and here.

Cross-posted from Decision 2008.

-=-=-=-=-

Related to yesterday's post on whether Libertarians would be included in upcoming debates: I spoke with the Libertarian candidate for governor, Mike Munger, today by phone. He was kind enough to let me record the conversation to share with y'all:

• * Munger says debate organizers shouldn't substitute their own judgment for that of the voters.

• * There is reason to believe, Munger said, that 2008 will be a relatively good year for Libertarians. At least, he said, it will be easier for them to keep they ballot access.

• * But Munger cautions that Libertarians need to take advantage of their opportunity. "Let's be honest. I think a lot of people have the perception that Libertarians aren't serious about trying to win office and that some of the issues that Libertarians emphasis are not really mainstream politics," Munger said. "I think that's exaggerated but it's not completely untrue. So some of the burden on us is to be able to conduct campaigns responsibly, in a way that's directed toward issues people care about."

The newspaper version of all this should run on Monday.

Cross-posted from Decision 2008:

-=-=-=-=

Doug points to the Libertarian candidate for governor, Mike Munger, sounding off about being excluded from a series of upcoming gubernatorial debates. Dome also has coverage. (Also: BlueNC.)

Munger writes in his post:

It’s not the media; you can’t blame them. Having me in the debate is MUCH more interesting, and would improve ratings. You can count on the media actually preferring that I be included.

But I’m not. Because the Dems and Repubs don’t want even a whiff of competition to affect their cozy cartel.

Well, I'm not going to say "blame the media," but Munger might not be able to blame the Republican and Democratic competitors in the race. I asked both campaigns via e-mail if they had an opinion on Munger entering the debates.

Amy Auth, the newly minted spokesperson for Republican Pat McCrory, said: "Pat doesn't host debates -- he attends them. It is up to the folks planning the debates to decide who to invite."

David Kochman, spokesman for Democrat Bev Perdue, wrote, "We'll leave that decision up to the hosts. We're committed to the debates and will let them decide how to handle that."

So, both campaigns are on the record as saying it's up to the hosts to decide who to invite.

The first forum coming up is the N.C. Bar Association, a week from Saturday.

Russell Rawlings, a spokesman for the association, said that his group had not invited the Libertarian candidate nor did it plan to. The Bar Association has always focused its election-year forums on the Republican and Democratic candidates, he said.

Cross-posted from Decision 2008.

-=-=-=-=-=-

State Sen. Kay Hagan, a Greensboro, is running to unseat Republican U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole, who has made immigration a big part of her campaign.

Today, Hagan did a round-table program with sheriffs in Raleigh about the 287(g) program, which gives local agencies the ability to ask prisoners if they're legal and start deportation proceedings.

For a story I wrote a few months ago, Hagan said:

Hagan said the federal government needed to ramp up its enforcement, both at the borders and ports of entry and in communities. She said the program allowing local sheriff s to enforce immigration laws - a program favored by Dole - should be replaced by more federal enforcement. And she said the needs of businesses in North Carolina that use seasonal workers need to be taken into account in whatever program is pursued.

Hagan backed off that skepticism a bit today, saying that 287(g) was fine, but it should be paid for by the federal government. Here's a video of her answer:

Sen. Robert Pittenger has resigned.

He is the Republican candidate for Lieutenant Governor. Sen. Walter Dalton, the Democratic nominee, has made no such move so far. He said after the Senate session that he had "too much work to do here."

Click here to listen to Senate President Pro Temp Marc Basnight wish him well and then Pittenger say a few words.

Pittenger will be at a bit of an advantage on fundraising for the moment, since state law limits what legislators can raise while the session is going.

Beth Wood has some unexpected work to do. The Democratic candidate for state auditor has signed up to qualify for the state’s public financing pilot.

Under the law, candidates for auditor, superintendent of public instruction and commissioner of insurance — three of the ten executive offices in North Carolina government elected by statewide vote — could get tax dollars to prosecute their campaigns.

Republican incumbent Les Merritt qualified for funding and will get about $300,000 in taxpayer support.

Wood raised 881 contributions, more than the 750 separate contributions the law requires.

However, she raised about $250 less than the $29,975 required by the public financing law.

“I’m just going to depend on the good democrats across North Carolina to help me raise the $300,000 I need to beat Les Merritt,” Wood said. “On equal ground, I can beat him.”

Wood is still upbeat about the public financing program.

“There are some tweaks that need to be worked out and I will be an advocate for the program going forward,” she said.

I just sent the following to our online desk:

There will be a new political party in town before the day is out.

North Carolina Elections Director Gary Bartlett said he is about to sign a letter that will give the Libertarian Party the same status as Republicans and Democrats in North Carolina.

The Libertarians have been a party in North Carolina before, but lost their status due to stringent ballot access laws that require party candidates to attract a certain number of votes.

Party officials said they delivered petitions with 72,935 signatures to the State Board of Elections.

“They have sufficient numbers to be recognized as a new party,” Bartlett said.

Starting today, voters will be able to register as Libertarians and Libertarian candidates chosen by the party will be put on the fall election ballot.

The N.C. Voters for Clean Elections group did a presser by the old state capitol today to talk up North Carolina's Council of State pilot.

For the uninitiated: the Council of State is made up of 10 officials elected statewide, including the governor and lt. governor, treasurer, agriculture commissioner and others. This year, candidates in three of those offices - Insurance Commissioner, Superintendent of Public Instruction and Auditor - can opt into a public financing system.

Those who participate need to collect 750 small dollar donations, defined as contributions between $10 and $200. In exchange, they get a minimum of $300,000 in taxpayer funding to wage their campaign.

"I want to say I'm sorry to anyone out there that I'm using their tax dollars and they don't want me to really win this race," said State Auditor Les Merritt, the Republican incumbent in the office.

He points out one of the big objections to publicly financed elections, which is that public money - your money - can go to finance a candidate who you find objectionable or who says objectionable things.

The JWP Civitas Institute, a conservative think tank, argued against the act when it was coming through the legislature last year and you can find their objections here. More here.

A major upside is that candidates who otherwise couldn't run are getting in the race. Both Fred Aikens and Beth Wood, the two Democrats running for Auditor, said they would not be in the race if it weren't for the public financing program.

The most interesting moments from today's newser revolved around the Superintendent of Public Instruction race. Democrats June Atkinson, the incumbent, and Eddie Davis have opted into the program, as has Republican Eric Smith, of Reidsville. Republicans Richard Morgan, former co-speaker of the House, and Joe Johnson have not opted in yet and aren't expected to.

"Voter owned elections means it will be harder for special interests to impact this election," Smith said. "In the past, the special interest group in my race was the North Carolina Association of Educators. I'm glad that these labor bosses now support voter owned elections and I call on them not to defeat the spirit of the law by spending hundreds of thousands of dollars in independent expenditures."

Scott Mooneyham of The Insider asked all three superintendent candidates to talk about the potential for independent expenditures.

"I would encourage anyone who is looking at that to recognize the importance of this program and decide not to do that," Davis said.

Atkins also said the independent 527s would undermine the public financing.

Why does this come up in this particular context.

Well, one reason could be that Davis heads the N.C. Association of Educators, an affiliate of the NEA. The NEA is running independent ads that stop a half-step short of being campaign ads but sure do talk up Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue, who they have endorsed.

Morgan, another Republican in the race, also used a 527 during his time as co-speaker.

So if a 527 or like organization were to engage in this race, it might be contrary to the spirit of public financing, but no one would count it as a surprise.

Profiles in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate:

Click here for State Sen. Kay Hagan, of Greensboro. Click here for slide show with audio.

Click here for Investment advisor Jim Neal, of Chapel Hill. Click here for slide show with audio.

Over at the Decision 2008 blog I have a post recapping the spin from Friday's U.S. Senate debate. When I get it, I'll post a link to the story I wrote from the forum, which will have more of the substance. Update: Click here for Saturday's story.

In the story, I noted the following from Lumberton lawyer Marcus Williams:

On a question regarding campaign finance, Williams expressed frustration with being relegated by the media to a second tier of candidates.

"Print media arbitrarily decide that if you're wallet is big, you're a leading candidate," Williams said, suggesting there be "standards for the media to provide parity of coverage."

Now Williams has a point, to a point. In the same story I wrote of State Sen. Kay Hagan and Jim Neal:

Hagan and Neal are the front-runners in the race by virtue of their campaign organizations, fund-raising and relatively widespread name recognition compared with the three other Democrats in the race.

Lexington trucking company owner Duskin Lassiter, Moncure podiatrist Howard Staley and Lumberton lawyer Marcus Williams are also in the race to challenge the likely Republican nominee, incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

So, what gives? Are we nasty print reporters trying to pre-determine the outcome of the election? Do we just not like some candidates?

Well, no.

The election season was already nuts before the American people decided they wanted the presidential primary to continue into May. Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are going to suck up all kinds of time and attention that was already in scarce supply.

In the print industry: space in the newspaper is a dwindling commodity, compared to where it was several years ago. Also, you may have noticed, there aren't as many print reporters around and by goodness you readers seems to have a lot on your plates as well.

All of that calls for some judicious thinking and allocation of resources. Given unlimited time, space and manpower, everyone would get the same volume of coverage and that would be great. But we don't have unlimited amounts of anything so choices have to be made.

Profiles of the candidates I have coming for this Sunday are a good example. I spent a considerable amount of time with Hagan and Neal. I spent a day or two on the road with each, I've chatted with each on the phone a bunch. They're both getting a share of A1. The other three candidates are getting much shorter shrift.

So how is it that folks like Lassiter, Staley and Williams get assigned to a second tier of candidates? It seems a little unfair, but there are some objective measures that people in my business use:

• * Money - ability to operate factor. No, money isn't everything. But you've got to have a little of it to run a statewide campaign. There's simply no way to shake hands with every voter in the state and free media (newspaper and broadcast coverage) will only get you so far.

  Money can buy advertising, organization, yard signs, and all the other stuff that helps a campaign work.

  As of my last check with the FEC: Williams had not filed a report that I could find. Lassiter had raised a total of $635, $600 of which he dontated to himself. Staley had $100 cash on hand.

• * Money - indicator of confidence. When someone donates to a campaign, they're indicating support. Lots of donors means lots of supporters. Large money donations means that supporters with bucks have a high degree of confidence in the campaign.

  Think of it like stock. People put their money into a campaign because they see it as a good investment that will pay off in a successful candidate. (Yeah, I know, the whole buying and selling of political powers is creepy, but leave that for another day. We're talking tactics, not ethics, here.) If you've not had anyone to invest in your campaign, that's essentially a sign of low investor confidence.

• * Time. Hagan and Neal are pretty much campaigning full time right now. They're doing more events and town hall meetings that I can keep up with.

  The other three candidates are still working at their day jobs. There's nothing wrong with that, but Lassiter told me in an interview before the debate that he's working 70 hours a week at his business. That doesn't leave a whole lot of time for campaigning relative to someone who is going 24/7.

• * Staff. Hagan and Neal have a blend of professional and volunteer staff that organize meet-and-greets, run the website, spin reporters, network, fundraise and do all the grunt work of a campaign.

  The other three have some of that, but their organizations are a relative handful of folks with relatively little experience in this kind of fight. Hagan is rolling with DSCC-vetted staffers and Neal has hired an outside consultant with experience running "outsider" campaigns.

• * Endorsements. I'm not of the camp that says endorsements swing big blocks of voters. But when candidates go through a politically-interested group's vetting process and come out with a seal of approval, that's a good sign. Neal and Hagan have between them virtually every endorsement of consequence so far this campaign.

• * Web presence. Hagan and Neal both have pretty good, full featured websites. Neal had his up longer and has probably developed it a bit more, but both are respectable.

  Williams' site has no content as of Friday. Lassiter has lots of detail on his proposals up, but is light on the web 2.0 features that Internet hipsters crave these days. The same is pretty much true of Staley's site.

• * Polling. Polls aren't always on point, as we learned in New Hampshire this year. And the polls done in North Carolina don't all agree numbers-wise. But they do agree on this much: Hagan and Neal have sizeable chunks of the population with the other three candidates trailing.

• * X-factor. Are the campaigns doing something outside all the conventional measures that's getting attention? Are they so strong on one measure that they are making up for weakness on others.

  Think Larry Kissell here. The guy was short on cash but had so robust a web presence and grass-roots support it made up for a lot in his campaign against Robin Hayes. I haven't seen an X-factor indicator in the U.S. Senate campaign.

• * Letters, e-mails, postings, etc... Candidates with vocal supporters tend to have their names show up in the Letters to the Editor columns of newspapers, get traffic on sites like Facebook, and have those who surrogate for them on blogs and other forums.

No one of those indicators would be enough for me to make a judgment on a candidate. But taken together, they're a pretty powerful group of indicators and go a long way to explaining why candidates get grouped like they do.

And that is not to say that Lassiter, Williams and Staley are not in earnest. They are. They're thoughtful men with a grasp on the issues of the day. Mr. Romoser over at Trail Mix put it well back when John Ross Hendrix was still in the race and Williams was not:

The little-known trio may not have Elizabeth Dole quaking in her boots just yet. But these are serious men who, in interviews last week, showed a sophisticated understanding of the issues facing the nation.

But that only gets a candidate so far. They have to be able to translate those smarts into a campaign that wins votes.

Hillary Clinton was in Winston-Salem Thursday evening, after stops outside of Raleigh and in Fayetteville. From the paper and website:

• Today's policy story.

• The color story for Winston.

• This live story - in bloggy format.

• Video.

• Photos.

If former President Bill Clinton is holding to his schedule, he's in Greensboro right now and will be in High Point at 9:30 a.m. Others will run down those events for you. I'm heading to the U.S. Senate debate tonight in New Bern.

So Presidential contender Barack Obama was in town today. Live coverage went mostly to main site:

• * pictures.
• * Story updates.
• * Doug's thoughts.

I'm waiting on our tech boys to upload some video of a newser Obama did after his speech. Among the things he was asked: Who ever won that basketball game between him and Sen. Edwards back in February.

"I will confess. Edwards took it. Now he had his home floor. And he's got an interesting game. He doesn't have much range, but from about 14-to-16 feet, he does not miss. So when I took it outside, beyond the 3-point line, he couldn't go out there. But he hit like eight in a row from 14-to-16 and that mid-range jumper was tough. So I'm going to have to get a rematch."

Will post more links when I get them.

Thursday, Sen. Hillary Clinton will be in the state. We'll be staffing her Winston-Salem appearance.

We may not know who UNC System President Erskine Bowles is supporting in the U.S. Senate primary, but I just got word from a Hagan staffer that Crandall Bowles, Mr. Bowles' wife, and others will be hosting a fundraiser for Hagan tomorrow in Charlotte.

Lest you be tempted to think that Mrs. Bowles is just a surrogate for her husband, please remembers she's very much her own woman. She is chairman of Springs Industry and serves on other corporate boards.

From this story in Sunday's paper:

Kay Hagan's chief rival in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate has accused the state senator of using her status as a powerful and politically connected committee chairwoman to intimidate his potential supporters.

"There is an inside machine that is working very hard to lock down the money in the state," said Jim Neal, a Chapel Hill investment banker and Greensboro native. On the stump and in phone calls to potential donors, Neal has told audiences that potential supporters were being "muscled" by political operatives friendly to Hagan.

"Someone will agree, 'Jim, I'll throw a fundraiser for you.' And then all of a sudden we won't hear from them for a while and the next thing you know, they're throwing a fundraiser for Kay (Hagan)," Neal said when asked to describe how this muscling worked.

Hagan said she had "not heard of this at all" and said she was shocked Neal was making the allegation as part of his stump speech.

Coming next Sunday: profiles of the two leading candidates in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary.

I was going to hold off on this, but since Dome is out there with it...

-=-=-=-

So I got a call this afternoon from someone who suggested I look at a certain page on Bev Perdue's website and click a certain link. When I did, it plopped me right into the campaign's content management system. Apparently, I, or anyone else who clicked on the magic link, could add, delete or edit content on Perdue's blog.

The CMS page looks like this (click to enlarge):

See that button that says "Edit." It seems to work, although I'm not going to go monkeying with content on a political candidate's site.

I've sent an e-mail to Perdue's folks to see if they're aware of the problem or if they're just trying to engage in a really new kind of open source campaigning. And no, I'm not going to tell you how to get in there and cause mischief.

Update: The offending links appear to have been disabled.

I've stayed away from writing about the back-and-forth between Treasurer Richard Moore and Lt. Gov Bev Perdue in their race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Part of that has to do with the fact I'm little more fascinated (and my paper has local interest) in the Senate primary, and part of it is the constant back-and-forth is less than illuminating at times.

But, let's jump into the fray today.

Bev Perdue has hammered away at Richard Moore with a varient of the Main Street versus Wall Street line for a good while now. Consider this example documented by the Tavern's bard keep during a debate earlier this year:

Do you want a candidate who’s from Wall St., or a candidate who’s from Main St.? Richard has raised about a million and a half dollars from Wall Street and from folks he does business with, with the pension fund...

Well, word got around to the Moore campaign today that Perdue was herself visiting some Wall Street types. His campaign hasn't generated a statement on it yet, but suffice it to say they don't think Perdue should get a free pass.

It's not hard to see their point. If taking money from Wall Street types is a bad thing, then why should any candidate do it? Might this not show that Wall Street has other interests in giving to political candidates other than those who deal with pension funds.

In an e-mail, Perdue campaign spokesman David Kochman writes:

She went to New York to visit the White House Project, a national non-profit that helps elect women candidates. While she was there, she met with several Democratic donors, some of whom are in the financial industry.

The bottom line is, 92% of Bev Perdue's money has been raised in North Carolina. Unlike Richard Moore, who's taken $1.5 million from vendors associated with the pension fund and is sole fiduciary, Bev has no control over how the pension is invested.

(As an aside: Click here for more info on the White House project.)

Also worth noting is that Perdue's campaign won't have to report how much money she raises on this trip to the State Board of Elections until April 28, eight days before the election. That means that if she does raise a significant sum, we scruffy media types will only have a week to note it, probably less since those forms can be lengthy and it takes a while for the full version to make their way into the public ether.

So is there a right and wrong here? That's probably not for me to say.

But it is worth noting that a candidate who has used "Wall Street" as a slur against her opponent is herself raising money from the financial industry.

Update: A few more updates from both campaigns. First this from Moore's campaign:

"The hypocrisy of Beverly Perdue fund-raising on Wall Street, after months of bashing Richard Moore for the same - is exactly why North Carolinians will begin asking, 'Does Beverly Perdue really have the character and consistency to be governor?'"

And here's more from Kochman, who I pressed a little bit more on why it was okay for Perdue to raise money in New York and not Moore:

For a candidate who has nothing to do with the pension to meet with Democratic donors in New York, a couple of whom happen to be in the financial industry, is VASTLY different than the sole fiduciary of the pension fund raising more than $1.5 million from people he does business with.

In a separate e-mail, he added:

And just to clarify, this was not a big fundraising swing. She only had a few small meetings, most of her time was spent with women’s groups, there were no fundraising events, and she left at noon. She's already been back in NC for a few hours.

Let me first say I've been covering politics at some level or another off and on for about a dozen years, from towns of under 1,000 residents to Congressional campaigns. I take nothing, and I mean NOTHING, about a campaign personally. Everyone has different ways they want to go about their job, I have my way, and we see how things work out.

Now to the news of the day:

Dome reports that Kay Hagan showed up to file the paperwork necessary to get on the ballot today. Lots of candidates make this a big production and I largely ignore these little shows because: 1) everyone does them and quite frankly there's too many political critters out there for me to attend every one; 2) the candidate is displaying no more skill than those he or she should have acquired by the third grade, namely the ability to fill out a form and follow directions.

Hagan was apparently escorted by her new campaign manager, Crystal King. Dome details the following exchange:

Kay Hagan has hired a campaign manager.

And here's the first and last quote you might hear from her:

"I do not go on the record," said Crystal King, unprompted, to two reporters Monday after one of them asked her name, David Ingram reports.

King had just started to usher Hagan out of the State Board of Elections after filing as a Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate.

Not exactly a warm greeting.

Huh.

So let's flashback to last week when I was working on a a piece about Hagan, Jim Neal and progressives.

I had originally given Hagan a buzz on her cell phone in the morning and ended up talking to her later in the day. But in between, campaign spokeswoman Colleen Flanagan gave me a call to chat me up. Fair enough.

After learning what the story I was working on was about, Flanagan took it upon herself to get me a written quote. (This is another story, but when I KNOW a candidate or other live human is available to spend five minutes on the phone, I don't typically deal in written quotes. They sound phony, pre-thought-out and half the time don't address the question.)

What's relevant in this case is who the quote is from: Crystal King, who Dome says doesn't go on the record. That struck me as odd, or at least calls into question by what she meant.

So in the interest of full disclosure - and at the risk of aggravating people I would really like to keep talking to me - here is Flanagan's e-mail, which contained a quote from King, which was very definitely on the record.

Hi Mark -- good speaking with you earlier. Looking forward to meeting you soon!

Statement below from Crystal King, Kay's campaign manager:

"Progressives are an important part of the Democratic community, and their desire and energy to replace a Washington politician like Elizabeth Dole is just as strong as Kay's And the Hagan campaign is doing everything thing we can to earn their votes in the primary -- and have them as a foundation for a winning general election campaign. The issues Kay's been highlighting: changing course in Iraq and reinvesting in America, taking care of our vets, and finally getting something done to make health care more affordable will appeal to voters all across the state of North Carolina."

The quote also mentions that Hagan will be announcing more campaign staff and a re-launch of the website in coming days.

What to make of this? I'll leave that to y'all.

Cross-posted from D-2008.

So I have story for Sunday - click here to read it - that seemed like a really good idea when I thought it up a week ago. I'm less sure right now, in part because I ended up having to hack the substantive bit that got me interested in writing it.

The premise is this: after talking to and watching the Internet posts of progressive/liberal/activist left Democrats, it seems they are lining up more behind Chapel Hill investment banker Jim Neal rather than Greensboro state Sen. Kay Hagan.

Now, there is a natural danger in writing about any one group of people. First off, not all members of the group will adhere to your thesis. Progressives are even less cohesive and consistent by their nature. Also, this is a story that requires some measure of nuance, which a 30-inch newspaper story doesn't always get at real well.

That said, I don't think the thesis is completely off base.

Neal sounds more like a progressive on the stump than Hagan does. His campaign thus far has been engineered around a robust web presence and talking in front of any gathering of more than five people who will sit still for him.

And Neal tends to take more black-and-white stands on the issues of the day, while Hagan is a bit more scholarly/circumspect in her approach in exploring new issues.

A good example of this, the bit I had to cut. Check out David Allen's blog post, which started tongues-a-waggin' in the liberal blogsphere. And it lead to this:

After hearing Hagan speak about the wiretapping bill now before Congress, Allen said he could not vote for her. Among other things, the bill would give phone companies immunity for illegal acts they may have committed in cooperating with phone taps requested by the Bush administration.

Democrats, Allen said, should be pushing back against that bill.

"What I get tired of is people like Kay Hagan telling me why it can't be done," Allen said.

Interviewed Friday, Hagan did not offer a yes-or-no answer as to whether she would have backed the Senate version of the wiretap bill to which Allen objects.

"I think it depends on which amendment you're looking at, and which bill you're looking at and we've got to look at all of that and see what's best for North Carolina," she said.
Neal was more definitive when asked.

"I was disappointed that the Senate buckled on the issue of retroactively granting immunity to the telecom companies," Neal said. Allowing lawsuits, he said, would allow lawyers to probe what kind of pressure the Bush administration used and figure out why some companies felt they had to cooperate and at least one did not.

Others who I spoke to for this story agreed that the telco issue would be a big issue for progressives.

Also worth noting is there were several people - all from Guilford County - who I approached for this story who either declined to talk to me or agreed to do so if their names weren't used. Both Hagan and Neal have Guilford County connections and it seems some were afraid of offending one or the other.

Update: Tom Jensen at PPP points to a post he wrote about a Survey USA poll that showed liberals in North Carolina slightly favoring Hagan over Neal. As he wrote then, it doesn’t make a great deal of sense given the tenor of the race.

But it does jibe with something James Protzman, better known as Anglico out there on the Internets shared. He said that activist, vocal liberals seem to be favoring Neal. But the next layer, those who may share progressive values but are not as active or outspoken, are split. Maybe that's what the Survey USA poll got at. Maybe not...I've been gun-shy about polls as of late.

I completely missed this until this morning when I was running through the candidate list (PDF) from the SBOE.

Ada Fisher, who has in the past run against Mel Watt in the 12th Congressional District, and as late as December said she would again, has filed to run for the N.C. House instead.

Click here for my story on Easley's battery announcement Tuesday.

Also, Jim Neal and Kay Hagan were making their campaign pitches in Greensboro Tuesday.

On today's calendar: Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue will hold a fundraiser in downtown Greensboro at The Depot.

As has been noted elsewhere, Mike Easley sounds like he's running for something.

Now the man says he doesn't have an interest. He's been asked three years in a row about a U.S. Senate run and put the kibosh on that. He's never really jumped up and said, "heck yes," when asked about cabinet level work. I think talk of a VEEP slot may actually make him break out in hives.

But consider this quote from Easley's speech at the Emerging Issues Forum today:

"Essentially, we have two choices," Easley said. "We can work toward energy independence, or we can put the United States of America at risk. We can put our economy in jeopardy, we can be controlled by other countries."

Sounds rather national in it's scope, no?

Click here to listen to yourself.

After his speech, Easley was asked if he was building a case for some kind of national office, Easley deflected the thought:

"No. I think energy is a national issue, it’s an international issue for that matter," Easley said. "Everybody is trying to be as innovative as possible to solve the energy problem in America. But we want to lead in North Carolina."

Officials at the DMV met with us scruffy press types Tuesday to talk about changes in the way drivers licensees get issued.

Meanwhile Cone says I should develop a sense of humor about this, which would be fine if there was anything humorous there.

Cross-posted from Decision 2008.

-=-=-=-=-

I was roused from my post-Super Bowl stupor last night by and ad for Crib to College, a nonprofit founded by Crumley and Associates.

The law firm is owned by Republican AG candidate Bob Crumley. The firm does heavy advertising for itself, including on the back page of the phone books.

Now, call me skeptical, but this got me to thinking and digging a little bit.

Crumley formed the Crib to College nonprofit in 2006, shortly after his 2005 declaration that he would run for Attorney General in 2008. (Yes, he's been running for nigh on three years.)

The ad for the scholarships features Crumley in a lot of the visuals and mentions his name several times. It sure as shooting looked to me to be a couple half steps short of a campaign ad. Could the foundation and its on-air advertising be taken as a way to boost his public profile around the state?

Crumley told me I'm taking the coincidence the wrong way. After 2006, the law firm realized it wasn't getting the number of applicants that it wanted for the scholarship. So in 2007 and again this year it began advertising the scholarship.

Crumley said his company has been doing public service work, such as drivers education, for years and that the formation of the nonprofit had to do with the expanding its community outreach efforts.

"Totally coincidental in terms of timing," Crumley said.

Alright. Fair enough. Still, advertising is advertising. Has he given any thought as to cutting back ads for the foundation or the law firm as he runs for AG.

Short answer: no.

"The company has been advertising for a long, long time. The company is going to continue to advertise, I guess forever...It's two separate things and the campaign will do its thing and the law firm will do its thing," Crumley said.

For those wondering if there's a law against this sort of thing, yes and no.

If you're a sitting member of the Council of State - the AG is a member - you can't do publicly-funded Public Service Announcements except in case of a national emergency, said Gary Bartlett, who heads the state board of elections.

So, for example, Democrat Roy Cooper can't do a bunch of ads for his department's fraud prevention efforts this year as a way to build his name recognition and good will.

Crumley, however, is pretty much in the clear to do ads for his foundation and his law firm.

The state can't regulate anything that doesn't have the "magic words," Bartlett said. Those would be words like "vote for," "support," "oppose," or "defeat." Anything else is, at best, an issue ad, which is dicey if not impossible for the state to regulate anyway. Advertisements for private businesses or foundation don't get close to coming into the SBOE's purview.

So there's nothing the state can do to put Crumley's foundation and business ads off the air, regardless of how they may or may not help his campaign. As for Crumley, he emphasized the foundation had nothing to do with politics.

"I don't want to see a really good program politicized for my benefit or anybody's benefit," he said.

So after all the hemming and hawing Coble comes out and endorses Romney anyway.

Boy, Ol' Howard sure can milk a story, can't he?

Give him credit, though. The conventional wisdom is that McCain is the GOP front-runner, so Howard's not betting on a horse that's already in the stable.

I'm looking for your input on health care policy and the campaign for governor over at Decision 2008.

Click here for thoughts on former N.C. Sen. John Edwards ending his presidential run.

A reader wrote in asking about iwanttovote.com, a website that purports to register people to vote in exchange for a fee of $9.95.

After doing WhoIs and other searches, I've not been able to come up with who these guys might be. They have registered their website and fax number in such a way to make it as hard as possible to confirm their identity. They have not responded to an e-mail I sent requesting more information about their operation.

Now, I'm not going to call this site a scam. You very well may get registered to vote if you submit your personal information and credit card number.

I wouldn't do it, though.

Charging a fee in any context in order to register someone to vote is unsavory, smacking of poll taxes designed to disenfranchise voters. And frankly, there are plenty of ways to get yourself registered FOR FREE.

The N.C. State Board of Elections website lists several ways to get registered and groups that help out. Typically, local Democratic and Republican parties are happy to help you get registered.

You can pick up registration forms at local libraries and your county board of elections office. You can do it by mail and all it will cost you is a stamp. (Click here to download the form.) And if you forget until the last minute, you can register the same day you vote during the early voting period.

For more information about getting registered Guilford County, click here. In the meantime, if anyone asks you for ten bucks in order to get registered to vote, save your money for a trip to the local barbecue shack.

(Cross-posted from Decision 2008.)

I've hit a few polling places here in Columbia, trying to gauge how things are going. Universally, it seems like pretty steady turnout. I don't know if I'm just picking all the right places, but even in presidential election years you can find pretty slow traffic at some Greensboro-area polling precincts. Not here, at least not today.

Edwards did one public meet and greet today at Greenwood Park. He wandered into the polling station, shook a few hands, answered some questions shouted out by reporters.

The one that got a laugh (seen below) was a reporter that reminded Edwards that his campaign had complained that "the media" was ignoring him. At today's stop, he was pretty much mobbed by camera crews.

"It'd be hard for me to complain about that," Edwards laughed.

After walking about some neighborhoods, I headed downtown to the state Capitol, where apparently it is something of a tradition for supporters of various candidates to occupy some sidewalk space and yell at passing cars and each others. Take a listen:

While I was down there, I ran into Rep. Pricey Harrison, of Greensboro, and Felita Donnell, also of Greensboro. The Edwards folks had set up shop away from the more boisterous Obama and Clinton crews.

"We're above the fray," joked Donnell, who was helping to prop up a massive campaign sign.

I'll be writing from Edwards' campaign celebration here in downtown Columbia tonight for Sunday's paper. If I have a chance, I'll update here. If not, I'll see you back in the Tar Heel State next week.

Update: Click here for Saturday's newspaper story.

-=-=-=-=-=-=

Saturday is Democratic primary day here in South Carolina. In the run up, Decision 2008 has some thoughts on the media and some audio clips for your listening pleasure from trail.

Update: Click here for Friday's story.

-=-=-=-=

A few final blog posts for the day over at Decision 2008:

A visit in pictures.

Candidates echo one another.

A new ad for Edwards.

The bosses are asking me to move new posts from down here South Carolina on the Decision 2008 blog, so that's where any new material from me will move first on Friday and Saturday.

John Edwards has given a version of his stump speech at least three times today. So far, the most complete version came at Lander University in Greenwood, SC.

Click here to listen.

The highlights are ending the war in Iraq, providing health care for all, creating jobs and a green economy.

Alright...I have to do some business for the newspaper side of things. Unless there's huge news, I'll see you back here tonight.

The second stop of the day for the John Edwards campaign was the Giant Burger in Laurens, SC.

He used the stop to talk about the economic stimulus deal reached in Washington today. He's not a fan and said that Congress should have held its ground against a president who would have had to sign any deal he was sent.

Here's video of Edwards speaking in front of his bus to us scruffy media types:

(And believe me, shoving that video through my cell phone from a moving campaign bus was no small task.)

Aside from hitting another culinary landmark, the highlight of this stop for me was meeting Dorris Pitts, and lady well into her 70s who stood on a fast food table bench to wave and "wooo!" at Edwards.

"You can't take the country out of me," she said as she shoved her way through the crowd, angling for a hug. "Like Mr. Edwards, I don't forget where I'm from."

On the campaign bus in Spartanburg, SC:

Edwards just talked to folks here at the Beacon Drive In, a diner and something of a local institution.

Three notes for the short run:

• * Edwards was asked about Payday lending as he gaggled with local press in front of his bus. It seems this is an issue that local Republicans have taken up. Would Edwards, he was asked, work with Republicans to curb payday lending.

  "I'll work with anyone who wants to do something about payday lenders," the candidate replied. "

  Payday lending was a big issue in North Carolina a few years back. But the state essentially regulated them out of business.

• * A theme of Edwards's stump speeches has been that he's the underdog, that he's not the candidate of "glitz and glamour."

  Right as he was dropping that line, Danny Glover and Madeline Stowe walk into the diner and wave hello. They're traveling with the campaign.

  And yes, Edwards did acknowledge the irony before moving on.

• * I've run into more North Carolina folks down here campaigning for Edwards. Among them: Pat Crawford, 62, of Hendersonville. She works for DENR in the Asheville office. She was the diner having breakfast and recommends the biscuits should you ever stop in.

  "My first campaign was John Kennedy's," she told me. Crawford was 13 at the time.

Update: Click here for Thursday's story.
-=-=-=-=

At least, it seems like I've covered a lot of ground here in South Carolina. I started my reporting day in Charleston and then moved on to Columbia. Right now, I'm sitting in a Greenville train station, waiting for a (late) Amtrak train to move me on up to Spartanburg, where I'm due to meet up with the Edwards campaign in the morning.

First, I should answer the question that will be waiting on my voice mail in the morning: Why am I spending time covering former N.C. Sen. John Edwards' campaign? After all, he's running third here, not making much of a blip in the national news stories, etc... (Usually, the messages will be laced with a few choice words, as well.)

The long and the short of it is this: Edwards is from North Carolina and we have an interest in the guy. The thought is that all our readers, those who support him and those who don't, would have an interest in how his campaign is going, who is working for him, etc...

And, as I mentioned, we haven't been getting a lot of good wire copy on the guy as of late, so it seemed reasonable to expend some resources and check in on the home-state kid.

Alright, for those who need more than the newspaper story for Thursday, the report from the road, in bullet form:

• * First off, I'm loving me some PDANet right now, which is letting my Palm serve as a modem for my laptop here beside the railroad tracks.

• * The Edwards campaign has called in Danny Glover to stump for their candidate. Glover does seem to have a genuine affinity for Edwards, sharing some of the same inclinations on unionization and health care.

  I guess one could be cynical and say that Glover was called in to South Carolina because the majority of the Democratic primary electorate is African American.

  Whatever the reason he's here, calling in Glover seems like a good move. People lined up to speak with him after he gave a stump speech at the Longshoremen's' union hall in Charleston.

• * There are at least a half-dozen folks from Greensboro that I've heard tell of working in South Carolina, and more from elsewhere in North Carolina. Featured in tomorrow's story is Cameron Allison, a graduate of Greensboro College (Political Science major, natch) and Southeastern Guilford High School.

  He will wind up his two-week tour in the state after Saturday's primary. He's done some canvassing and phone calls and it sounds like he has staffed a fair number of events.

• * Yes, there are undecided voters in South Carolina. I met several (six, I think). If Edwards has a strategic hope, it's that a lot of those who called themselves undecided didn't really like what they saw from Obama and Clinton in Monday night's debate.

• * As the Edwards event was wrapping up at the union hall, some Obama supporters came in to canvass for voters.

  The big draw for Obama's crew was Newark Mayor Cory Booker, who has become something on a national figure both in his own right and a surrogate for Obama.

  Now, the longshoremen I saw weren't exactly a burley lot but they were certainly pretty big physically relative to, say, most of the accountants I know. Let's just say they were all looking up to Booker.

  I didn't get a chance to listen in much, but there was quite a bit of nodding.

• * Bill Clinton was making an appearance near by on behalf of his wife, but I didn't have time to stick around for that.

• * Columbia is in full on convention mode. Banners hanging from the light polls there proudly proclaim "Columbia Welcomes You to the 2008 Presidential Primaries." And I wasn't the only reporter using a couch and electric socket in the lobby of the downtown Marriot.

• * My main mission in Columbia was to meet up with a Greensboro resident named Chad Hawk, but we were never in the same place at the same time. I did, however, get a chance to stop by Edwards' field office there.

  For those who have never visited a campaign field office, this one was typical: half frat house, half office depot and half (yes, three halves, that's part of the charm) military bunker.

  Printers get propped up on two cardboard paper boxes, volunteers wield a cell phones and landlines to encourage folks to go vote, others are dispatched to canvass neighborhoods complete with maps and lists of doors to knock on.

• * I had a chance to ride around with David Wright, a campaign volunteer who flew in from Hawaii, where he's been visiting with his girlfriend, Stephanie. He's in my story, so you can read about him there some.

  Wright is a big dude and was sent out to pick up a couple of fellow campaign workers in another volunteer's car.

  "I've never driven a Lexus before," he said in what I would call an Alabama drawl, if that's not a mixed metaphor. Once he moved his seat back far enough so his knees weren't in the middle of the steering wheel, he did just fine.

• * I talked to Rep. Pricey Harrison, a Greensboro Democrat and Edwards supporter, on the phone as I drove from Columbia to Greenville. She's headed down to help out the campaign Thursday.

• * Overall, the impression I got from the Edwards campaign workers on the ground and those headed here is that they believe Edwards is still in the fight, not fighting for a VP spot or to play kingmaker or any of that stuff. They absolutely believe he can win and are hoping South Carolina serves as a launching point for the remainder of his campaign.

  For the moment, I'm not inclined to argue with them, although the polling in South Carolina still puts Edwards behind Obama and Clinton. New Hampshire taught us a little bit about polling. Now, the results on Saturday night might make me a bit more skeptical, depending on what they are.

Up next: riding with the campaign on Thursday. If all goes well, I should have something in Friday's paper on that. Meanwhile, if anyone sees the train to Spartanburg, send it my way, will ya?

Update: After a later-than-scheduled train ride, walk and a taxi ride, I've arrived at what I'm told is the outskirts of Spartanburg. I really can't tell for sure, since the fog precluded even a night-time tour of the place. Two final notes:

• * If appearances are to be believed, Edwards is not traveling as a fiscal conservative. The digs here at the Radisson Spartanburg are pretty nice.

• * My cab driver, who sported a mullet of epic proportions, said he was a registered Republican and a Fred Thompson supporter. When he learned I was here to follow the Edwards campaign, he said, "Yeah, John Edwards, he's a Democrat. I don't know why he's not doing better because those other two, boy ... " Then he just sort of laughed. Apparently, he wasn't impressed much by Monday's debate.

In Charleston right now. A few thoughts of little import:

The first campaign commercial I saw on local TV last night: for John Edwards. It stressed the fact that he hadn't taken contributions from corporate lobbyists. Obama and Clinton are also on the air.

The first campaign sign I've seen: for Libertarian turned Republican Ron Paul.

I'm off to listen to Danny Glover talk up Edwards at the local longshoremen's hall now.

I'm off to South Carolina to do some reporting on the Democratic primary and John Edwards' campaign. Will update here as time and travel allow.

Related: Edwards told reporters on a conference call this morning that money was not a problem for his campaign.

Random: The State, which is the newspaper here in Columbia, SC, has endorsed Barack Obama in Saturday's primary.

Remember that game "telephone" you played as a kid. Everyone sits in a circle, the first person things up some silly sentence, and it gets whispered one person to the next until it gets to the last person. Invariably, a simple statement such as, "I like cheddar cheese" gets translated into "I think Ned is a sleaze."

Well, Congressman Howard Coble played his very own version with Mitt Romney's presidential campaign.

The story, as told by Coble, goes something like this:

Coble and Tom Petri, a Congressman from Wisconsin, were chit-chatting on the House floor earlier this week. Coble has been standing on the sidelines of the Republican presidential nomination but likes for everyone to get a chance to be heard.

"We were just making small talk about the campaign and how interesting it is one guy wins in Iowa, one guy wins in New Hampshire and maybe another wins the next one," Coble said. This was before the Michigan primary night.

Well, anyway, Coble said something to Petri like, "You know, if I would have been in New Hampshire last week, I would have voted for Romney."

Coble thought he was just making idle chatter, speculating away the time between votes.

But unbeknownst to Coble, Petri is a big Romney supporter and took his remarks a little seriously. He got on the horn to the campaign. The campaign calls down to Virginia Foxx - a Romney supporter from North Carolina - who mentions something to Lamar Smith of Texas, who is also a Romney backer.

"So Lamar Smith comes up to me...and said he was glad to hear the news," Coble said.

What news?

That he was endorsing Romney.

Oh, not so much.

"I probably won't endorse anybody because I've got constituents back home who are all over the board," Coble told Smith.

The lesson? One that a guy who has spent as many years in Washington as Coble has should know by now:

"If you open your mouth in this town," Coble said, "it will come back to bite you."

Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory announced officially that *shock* he's running for governor in Jamestown just a few minutes ago. As he did, a train pulled through town and sounded its horn.

"We knew the train was coming sooner or later," McCrory said.

Same could be said of all the speculation surrounding his campaign for the past two months.

Bev Perdue's campaign put out an ad today that focuses on her background and qualifications. That's a contrast from the ad that Treasurer Richard Moore put out Sunday, that is more forward-looking.

Here's the script of the Perdue ad:

Script: Bev Perdue. She grew up in a home filled with love and faith. And while neither of her parents finished high school, they taught her that with a good education, she could do anything.

She became a teacher, went on to earn a Ph.D., and as a health care administrator provided vital services for seniors. Helping others gave Bev a mission in life, here in North Carolina, shaping the future.

A state representative, a state senator, lieutenant governor, leading the fight for Smart Start and helping to create a North Carolina prescription drug plan called the best in the nation. Because of Bev, teachers have higher salaries, 115,000 uninsured kids have health care. And military bases across North Carolina were saved from closure, because one little girl grew up believing she could do anything. And as governor, Bev Perrdue will do what it takes to get it done.

I'm beginning to do my due diligence, but anyone out there see anything I should ask about?
The video version of the ad is on Perdue's website.

Over at Decision 2008 blog I quoted Treasurer Richard Moore talking about Public Policy Polling:

"That polling outfit, I really don't think you guys should even be carrying it. A good poll does not use a computer," Moore said.

He was speaking after Thursday night's UNC-TV debate among candidates for governor.

Now, I will grant you that I would rather have live operators doing the polling. But PPP puts out a lot of surveys and tracking polls on questions of interest to we scruffy media types find useful, if not definitive.

So, just by way of reality check, let's climb in the way-back machine and go to Richard Moore's campaign blog entry from July 16, 2007 under the title "Pollster: Moore's support grows, Perdue's lead shrinks":

A new independent poll shows State Treasurer Richard Moore gaining on Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue in the Democratic primary for governor. For the second month in a row, the Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey shows the race as a statistical dead heat with Perdue at 34%, Moore at 30% and a plurality voters remaining undecided at 36%.

It also uses a little graph of PPP's work and links to more analysis.

Just saying.

For those who didn't watch the UNC-TV debates last night, Decision 2008 has audio of the Republicans talking immigration and the Democrats talking trash.

Update: Click here for the print version of my debate story. Final thoughts here.

The Charlotte Observer was the first to report that Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory had filed the paperwork needed to raise and spend money for a run for governor.

Filing such paperwork doesn't commit one to a campaign or even get one's name on the ballot. But it is a leading indicator - people don't generally file campaign finance paperwork just for fun.

Previously.

Bruce Davis, a Guilford County Commissioner, says he will run against Sen. Katie Dorsett in District 28. Both are Democrats so this is a primary showdown.

More from Decision 2008.

For those from other areas of the state, there is a bit of geographic rivalry here. Davis is from High Point. Dorsett is from Greensboro. The two cities don't always see eye-to-eye and High Point has long complained that its larger cousin gets too much attention.

Cross-posted at Decision 2008.

Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory has been flirting with a run for governor for a good couple months now. The Meck Deck, Charlotte blog of the John Locke Foundation, picked up a hot tip and e-mailed it out (complete with Drudge-report siren) to us scruffy media types:

Interesting rumor du jour is that Mayor Pat McCrory will have a press conference next week in Jamestown, NC.

Why Jamestown - near High Point - of all places? McCrory went to Ragsdale High in Jamestown, where he kicked off his political career by being student body president. Kinda sounds like a set-piece to announce a run for governor, does it not?

Read the whole post here.

Another good reason for McCrory to launch in Jamestown: gets that Charlotte patina off him. From what long-time Republicans tells me, the GOP base is a bit skeptical of the big city mayor coming out to the territories telling folks who it ought to be done. Announcing in Jamestown would play up his connection to the Triad as well as show that he's more than just about Charlotte.

Meanwhile, the Charlotte paper reports McCrory is ramping up his Facebook presence. (Facedook page.) Charlotte also writes that McCrory has been sopping up local support for his run.

Cross-posted from Decision 2008

I just got this e-mail from political consulting firm Fetzer Stephens:

"As of the first of this year, Fetzer Stephens is no longer engaged with the Graham for Governor Committee. We have appreciated the opportunity to work with the Graham Campaign and we wish them well in 2008."

The firm is one of the big dogs in North Carolina Republican circles, working for the likes of Elizabeth Dole and Richard Burr. So what gives?

"There's no sour relationship," said campaign spokesman Aaron Lay. Fetzer Stephens was part of Graham's "Stop the Gas Tax" push last year, and had been managing much of the campaign as a lead consultant up through the New Year.

Graham's new campaign manager, Marty Ryall came on board this week. Other consultants include Strategic Perceptions.

Update: Just in from the Graham campaign:

January 4, 2008 - SALISBURY, NC - Marty Ryall, Campaign Manager for Bill Graham for Governor, issued the following statement today. "Through a cordial and mutual agreement we are no longer working with Fetzer Stephens. We appreciate the work Tom and Mark have done for the campaign and we wish them all the best in the future."

The Charlotte Observer wrote today that the paper backup systems for touch-screen voting machines had a nasty habit jamming. That should be old news to Guilford County residents, who say about 9 percent of their voting machines get gummed up in 2006.

Charlotte reports that there have been steps taken to reduce the paper jams:

The machine's manufacturer has retooled the printing function so it uses less paper per voter. That means fewer roll changes and fewer jams. Counties also are using different paper that is less affected by humidity.

Hat tip: Dome.

From the Decision 2008 blog:

For those of you on any sort of political campaigns direct mail or e-mail list, this note sent by Sen. Kay Hagan's campaign ought to look familiar:

Everyone wants to make a difference and I am convinced that if we want to make a difference here in North Carolina, we need change in Washington. Please join hundreds of other North Carolinians by contributing to my campaign for the U.S. Senate. [snip]

P.S. Your contribution of any amount - $25, $50, $100 or more before the December 31st reporting deadline will help me demonstrate to the rest of North Carolina that I can win this race! Click here to contribute now! Thanks again for your support.

Dec. 31 is a key deadline for candidates seeking to build credibility for next year's run. The Democrats lining up to take on U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole certainly fall into that camp.

Click here for more.

The Washington Post is reporting that U.S. Sen. Trent Lott of Mississippi is retiring at the end of this year.

Does the average Tar Heel voter or politician care? Maybe more than you'd think.

First off, as The Fix notes, this likely would add one more senate campaign to next year's calendar. Republicans are already defending a bunch of seats and this is just one more for them to worry about.

Lott's resignation and the likely campaign to replace him will mean national Republicans will have that many fewer resources and a little bit less attention to throw at the North Carolina race. U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole will be defending her seat, probably against either state Sen. Kay Hagan or Chapel Hill investment banker Jim Neal.

Secondly, the Post is reporting this is a case of burn-out in a guy was elected to the House in 1972 and won a Senate seat in 1988. Lott is walking away at the beginning of a six-year term he recently won. The Capitol Briefing post paraphrases and aid as saying:

"Fatigue has set in," said the GOP aide, requesting anonymity to speak freely about a decision that will not be formal until a noon press conference in Pascagoula.

[snip]

Lott grew tired of the political infighting in the Senate as Republicans have been forced into a position of merely blocking a Democratic agenda, the aide said, stressing that the decision was not connected to any health or ethical issues.

The same post notes:

Lott's departure is the biggest blow yet to Republicans who have been fighting the perception that they will remain in the minority in both the House and Senate for some time to come. While many of the retiring GOP lawmakers were former subcommittee chairs and senior members not happy with minority status, Lott is the first member of either chamber's leadership to announce he will walk away from the Capitol.

Being a U.S. senator - even in the minority - is a pretty sweet gig. You get office space, budget, salary and perks out the ying-yang, a fist-full of power to wield should you choose to do so, and definite "player" status no matter where you roam in your home state.

What kind of bad time does someone who has lived and breathed D.C. politics for 35 years have to have (or foresee) in order to give that up?

This is one more signpost that signals a hard year for Republicans nationally in 2008. Now, there are some fundamentals unique to North Carolina that says this state's mileage may vary quite significantly from the national. And anyone who is in their right mind handicapping the race still will tell you that Dole has some significant advantages.

But what those same folks will tell you that the Democrats can give Dole a good race and in a few particular situations unseat her. Common to those unseating scenarios is some mention of national tides breaking the wrong way for Dole. Lott's resignation isn't exactly a rip-tide warning, but it's one more sign the forecasters will look at.

For anyone who is sufficiently recovered from their turkey-induced coma and isn't nursing injuries from the outlet malls wars, here's a little political food for fodder this Sunday morning:

RALEIGH - From Polo Ralph Lauren's 1998 expansion in High Point to CitiCards' opening on Interstate 40 in 2004 to any number of RF Micro Devices projects, Guilford County and the Triad are home to some of the highest-profile economic development deals in the state.

If you give Bob Orr a few minutes, the Republican candidate for governor will try to convince you that deals such as the one that helped bring FedEx and Skybus to the airport and a Dell computer assembly plant to Forsyth County hurt the economy and long-term job prospects.

"That very well may be the issue that separates me," Orr said in one of his near-weekly sessions with reporters and all-comers over breakfast at a downtown Raleigh restaurant.

Although it has become his signature issue, political scientists and strategists say it will be difficult for Orr or anyone to translate the incentives issue into viable campaign fodder.

Exhibit A, some say, is Gov. Mike Easley, a popular two-term Democrat who has made frequent and enthusiastic appearances at incentive announcements such as one recently for Skybus in Greensboro.

Click here for the full story.

I spotted an item in the latest edition of the N.C. Register that piqued my interest. Treasurer's Richard Moore's campaign had written to the State Board of Elections to ask about the proper reimbursement rate for flying on a 1982 vintage Piper PA-31T. (That rate was $575 per hour.)

Click here to read the ask and here to read the answer.

I e-mailed Jay Reiff, Moore's campaign manager, about the exchange. He explained that he was trying to make sure the campaign stayed on the path of the straight and narrow.

Most aircrafts, even small single-engine jobbers, are owned by LLCs or other similar corporate structures, even if the only thing the LLC does is own the airplane. And if a candidate flies on such an airplane on campaign business, they must reimburse the LLC for the operation of the airplane, otherwise it's an illegal in-kind contribution.

Reiff said the campaign has used a half-dozen planes and that Moore typically only flies to a campaign event two or three times a month.

The correspondence in question, he said, makes sure the campaign is reimbursing the appropriate rate and can't be flagged later on for taking unlawful contributions.

I haven't spied any similar correspondence from other gubernatorial committees or other statewide candidates this year.

Update: Lt. Gov Perdue's campaign says it has been following the guidelines laid out in this letter. A spokesman said that Perdue hasn't flown much so far but may be taking more flights "as we get closer to the election."

The Charlotte Observer served up this tantalizing tidbit this weekend:

Bill Caster, chairman of the New Hanover County commissioners, got a call from a pollster this week. He was asked about the three announced Republican candidates for governor and then asked several questions about McCrory. "It was all about the mayor," said Caster, who, like McCrory, is Republican.

How would McCrory stack up against Sen. Fred Smith, former Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr and Salisbury lawyer Bill Graham?

In the favorable column: He's got a large geographic base to work from. Charlotte's not enough to carry you in a statewide general election, but it can get one a long way in the primary. He's a polished politician who has done well on the big stage when I've seen him speak. I also have the sense he's a known quantity among business leaders, something that will help with fundraising.

In the not so favorable column: He doesn't have all that much money in hand, though I suspect he could raise it PDQ if he needed to. History isn't friendly: Richard Vinroot, a former Charlotte mayor, twice lost the Republican GOP nomination for governor and lost the 2000 general election against Easley. And obviously he'd have some lost time to make up with grass roots supporters and the like that the three declared candidates have been courting.

That said, his entry would certainly stir the pot on the GOP side.

I had occasion to talk to Democratic U.S. Senate Candidates Kay Hagan and Jim Neal this week for a piece coming up this weekend. While on the phone, I picked up a couple of tidbits from the two of them that don't fit in the story:

• * Hagan has already said she plans to stay in her state senate seat as she ran for the U.S. Senate. She also serves as chairwoman of the appropriations committee, a post that means a lot of work in May or June.

  The 2008 session is the General Assembly's short session, which typically runs from May through sometime in July. Although the budget passed this year (2007) technically runs for two years, it gets a fair amount of adjustment in this off year. However, Hagan says she'll stay in her budget post.

  "In the short session, we're tweaking the budget and not starting from ground-zero. We shouldn't be going in and changing everything," Hagan said. She said that she anticipates opening a campaign office in Raleigh and split time between there and the legislature.

  No word on when or if she plans on sleeping.

  For those playing along at home, that would mean two high-profile members of the Senate's budget negotiating team will be involved in statewide election bids next year. The other is Sen. Walter Dalton, who is running for Lt. Gov.

• * In an interview I did with Jim Neal a while ago, I asked whether he was in a relationship. He answered this way:

  In response to that question, there is a firewall around my personal life. I think many people who are in elective office or running for elective office have done so. People who are close to me, my family, my children, my friends, whoever they may be, they're not running for office. I am. Not everyone is going to be comfortable being in the spotlight, is going to be comfortable getting a knock on the door or a phone call from you or another reporter. So, I won't respond to a lot of questions about my personal life.

  More than one person mentioned to me, and apparently to him, that this wasn't exactly the most straightforward or realistic way for a U.S. Senate candidate to answer a pretty basic biographical question.

  "I'm in a relationship with someone who is a very, very private person and I was just trying to protect his privacy," Neal said this week.

Here's today's story on the race in the N.C. 6th Congressional District, a seat currently held by Republican Howard Coble. (They' yacking about this story at the Debatables blog as well.)) The more straightforward handicapping goes something like this:

• *Coble is a formidable incumbent. He's been in office since 1984 and it has been since the 1990 election that he has garnered less than 70 percent of the vote in the general election. He has a boat-load of money in the bank, fairly positive name recognition in the district and a district drawn to favor Republicans.
• *Taking out Coble will probably require three things: a strong challenger, some national political trends rolling against him (like anti-incumbent sentiment) and Coble shooting himself in the foot somehow.
• *Among the three potential challengers so far for 2008, Jay Ovittore probably gets front-runner status. That's because he's relatively well known by Greensboro's political community and us scruffy media types. He's been president of the local Young Democrats chapter and has worked for Rep. Pricey Harrison. He also has, by far, the most robust web presence and a ready-made online community that will help him out. (Of course, this being Greensboro, he has some instant detractors as well.
• *Johnny Carter, of Summerfield, seems earnest enough. He was the first person to officially announce they were taking on Coble this year. (He actually works for the company that does Coble's plumbing.) On the phone, he seems perfectly nice and capable. From his websites, some of his positions - like backing universal healthcare - will appeal to Democratic primary voters. Other positions, like his take on immigration and his thesis on religion in public life probably lose him votes, at least in the central-Greensboro part of the district.
• *David Crawford, registered to run in the City Council election against Mike Barber and then dropped out. I'll let you read his Myspace page for yourself.

So the early betting, unless someone else jumps in, would say Coble will most like face Ovittore come the general election. I know Jay a little bit and am convinced he will work like H-E-double-hockey-sticks. I also know Coble a little bit, and he does not plan on giving up his seat without a fight and right now the district's fundamentals favor him.

The question is whether any Democrat can overcome those fundamentals this year.

At least two Democrats say that want to challenge Congressman Howard Coble in 2008.

As Scoop reported last week, blogger, painter and local Young Democrat honcho Jay Ovittore says he's jumping in.

Next in line is Johnny Carter of Summerfield, also a Democrat. Carter is "the General Manager of a well established contracting firm in Greensboro, North Carolina" according to his web site. Update: Ed Cone says Carter's policies don't sound all that Dem-ish, but the FEC says it's so.

Who else is jumping in the pool?

U.S. Senate Candidate Jim Neal did a live chat at Pam's House Blend this weekend.

It's worth checking out for those interested in the Democratic primary. The crowd over there was sympathetic to Neal's cause and asked him about Kay Hagan's entry into the race and whether national Democrats would support him or not:

The DSCC doesn't vote in North Carolina. We have elections and primaries and not coronations. That's why it's critical to raise the funds to compete in a statewide race. I don't expect all the big DSCC supporters to write $2,300 checks but I hope you and others will help grow this movement by involving your friends, family, neighbors and coworkers.

Click here for a more reader-friendly summary.

The Republican and Democratic contenders for governor debated over at the Koury Center today.

I'm on duty for election coverage today, but I popped in to listen to the back and forth. Some quick hits:

• * Republicans hit many of the same themes as they did in their first debate. A question about the Leandro Lawsuit did prompt one interesting answer from former Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr.

  Orr and the other Republican candidates were debating the relative merits of having a judge essentially take custody of a group of schools and threaten to close them if they don't run. All three Republicans argued this was a bad idea.

  The quote that caught my ear from Orr: "The governor needs to be the person in charge of public education."

  So...what exactly is the Superintendent of Public Instruction and the state school board supposed to do?

  Click here to listen to the full exchange among the candidates. Orr answers first, followed by Sen. Fred Smith and then Bill Graham.

  -=-=-=-=-=-

• * Democrats were also on hand. Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue and Treasurer Richard Moore kept things civil...mostly. There were, however, a couple testy points during the debate.

  One such point came during a question on how to pay for school construction needs. Moore took the opportunity to pitch his plan to have a public-private partnership build schools.

  That prompted this from Bev Perdue to say it sounded like Moore was suggesting new bureaucracy that would interfere in how school districts keep their buildings.

  "That may be a fresh idea, but it sure is a bad idea from my perspective," Perdue said.

  "That's not the way the plan works at all and I'll be glad to explain it to you," Moore responded.

  Click here to listen to the full ask and answer. (The snippy bit comes toward the end during the 30-second rebuttal period.)

  -=-=-=-=-=-

• * The other testy bit came when candidates were asked about the number of low-income students in the state's public schools. Both candidates talked about how students from poorer families wouldn't have the same advantages as student from wealthier families.

  Perdue said that one way to help was to encourage kids with her North Carolina Promise program that would help kids pay for college.

  Moore jumped on that: "Beverly you were a part of tuition increase after tuition increase," Moore said. "After years of raising tuition how are we going to turn around and give the college away."

  Perdue started her answer by saying, "I believe every kid in North Carolina deserves to have hope and opportunity." However, she never got around to tackling Moore's question head-on.

  Click here to listen to the full exchange. (Once again, the sassy bits are toward the end.)

Okay, I'm off to municipal election land. Y'all play nice.

Guilford County Reps. Maggie Jeffus and Pricey Harrison are backing Richard Moore in his campaign for governor. From an endorsement letter they co-signed (along with several other female legislators) on Monday:

Richard has shown that the people of North Carolina can depend on him for steady leadership and in times of crisis. His careful stewardship of the state's pension fund has resulted in its consecutive rankings as second best in the country. More than 700,000 teachers, police officers, National Guard Members, and other public workers know that they can depend on Richard. When Hurricanes Floyd and Fran and other natural disasters hit North Carolina, Richard Moore led the emergency response and started the rebuilding process for our devastated communities.

Richard has built this record of achievement through hard work and by surrounding himself with a diverse and highly talented professional team, including the first African American female chief investment officer to run a public pension plan. In fact, more than half of Richard's current leadership team is female, including his chief of staff.

Our communities, families, and women need and deserve Richard Moore as their next governor. The steady leadership and fresh approach he offers to fix North Carolina's problems are exactly what we need. We hope that you will join us as we work to make Richard Moore the next governor of North Carolina.

Only one sitting or former member of the Senate signed the letter, Ellie Kinnaird.

I suspect the letter (full text here) is going to be viewed as something of a counter-punch to Bev Perdue's Emily's List endorsement, which came out last week. (For those living under a political rock: Perdue and Moore are the major Democratic players running for governor.)

In fact, Harrison suggested as much when I spoke with her on the phone just now.

"I've been a fan for a while now," Harrison said. "I really was impressed when he came out for the minimum wage before it was popular."

Harrison said she also liked that Moore had been active on climate change issues.

Following up on yesterday's post, here's a story from today's paper on potential contenders to replace Kay Hagan in her state senate seat next year.

The summary on the Democratic side:

• * The three House members who live in the district aren't all that interested.
• * County Commission Paul Gibson is "Seriously considering" a run.
• * Former commissioner Margaret Arbuckle and former City Council member Don Vaughan are possibilities.
• * County Commissioner Melvin "Skip" Alston shows some tepid interest in the idea.
• * With a few months before registration happens, there's time for more folks to pop out of the wood work.

On the GOP side, no one who popped to my mind said they were interested and Mark McDaniel, who ran against Hagan in 2002, offered this:

"The district has been drawn too much toward the Democratic Party," McDaniel said. "It's impossible for a Republican to win that seat."

The comment lines are open.

Update: County GOP Chairman Bill Wright and I didn't catch each other yesterday. He says that despite the registration disadvantage, Republicans can challenge for the district.

Although he offered no names, he said the GOP will have a "credible" challenger come 2008.

So now that Kay Hagan has decided to pursue a jump from the legislature to the U.S. Senate, what will happen with her old state senate seat?

First off, Hagan says she'll serve out her term, so no replacement on the fly. But election 2008 does become interesting.

One the Democratic side of the ledger, the state House districts of current Reps. Maggie Jeffus and Pricey Harrison overlap with Hagan. Jeffus said quite definitively Tuesday that she was happy in the House.

Harrison was a bit more circumspect. But if I were to play dime-story-shrink, she's probably more at home in the House where Speaker Joe Hackney has given her free-ish reign to pursue some environmental legislation and vote the way she wants on most big pieces of legislation. In the Senate, she'd be in danger of becoming the next Ellie Kinnaird, out of step with leadership on many issues and therefore often voting on her lonesome.

One other name mentioned to me yesterday: Margaret Arbuckle of the Guilford Educational Alliance. I haven't spoken to her directly about the race, but she'd certainly fit the profile of someone who might be interested.

On the Republican side, the picture is a bit murkier. Mark McDaniel, who ran against Hagan in 2002 and was at one time in the legislature, certainly could vault to the top of the speculation list. So could Jim Rumley, who has run several times against Jeffus unsuccessfully but might have more luck at an open seat.

Might Rep. John Blust, if he still lived in Hagan's Senate district, take a whack at it? Hagan unseated Blust from a senate seat in 1998.

So now that you know what's on my mind - and who I'm going to be talking to over the next few days - who would be your choices? Who's going to jump in this thing? The comment lines are open.

Who else is writing about Kay Hagan getting into the U.S. Senate race? These fine folks:

• * The AP: "I'm here on the ground in North Carolina," Hagan said, a reference to the common Democratic refrain that Dole is a Washington insider. "I have a proven track record."
• * Dome: "We need accountability to end the war in Iraq, so we can reinvest those resources here at home," Hagan said in a video announcement on her Web site. "How can Washington reject health care for 123,000 children while continuing to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on this mismanaged war?"
• * The Tavern: "Hagan's press release also included kind words from former Gov Jim Hunt. That sure sounds like the official blessing of the party machine..."
• * Blue NC: I've invited Senator Hagan to BlueNC to talk about her candidacy, and I hope she'll take us up on that invitation. I certainly have a few questions I'd like to get answered. In the meantime, I wish her and other North Carolina Democrats the best of luck in holding their party together.
• * Cone: The Greensboro Democrat stressed fiscal responsibility and "results-driven leadership" when I asked her why she's running for the seat currently warmed by Liddy Dole.
• * The Hill: "I am not sure why Democrats continue to waste their time in a state where voters clearly favor Sen. Dole," said the spokeswoman, Rebecca Fisher. "The silence from any top-tier Democrats in the state to challenge her is deafening."
• * Kos: This is very good news, as North Carolina already has one very good Democratic candidate for Senate in Jim Neal and now has a second very good candidate in Kay Hagan.

I'm having to turn my attention to that funny paper thingy we throw in the driveway every morning. But Gov. Easley held a news conference this afternoon, mainly on the drought. Of course, we scruffy media types ambushed him afterward and asked him about the Senate campaign. The telling bit, from my story in tomorrow's paper:

Still, Neal's biggest disadvantage may be that he's not as well known to those with their hands on the traditional levers of power and campaign funding in the state.

When asked about the campaign today, Gov. Mike Easley praised Hagan as "a real champion" for health care, education and economic development. He called her, "as strong a candidate as you'll see running anywhere in the country."

When asked about Neal, Easley said, "I don't know him, I don't know anything about him."

Following a few phone calls with us scruffy media types, Kay Hagan sent out a news release announcing she was running to take on Elizabeth Dole.

By far, the most interesting thing about the release is it quotes former Gov. Jim Hunt, who is still something of a power-broker within the Democratic party:

"Kay Hagan is one of the strongest and most effective leaders in North Carolina," former Governor Jim Hunt said. "She has been a champion of improving education and creating jobs for our entire state. She has exactly the kind of good ideas, energy and drive North Carolina needs in Washington."

This pretty much tags Hagan as the party establishment candidate, and puts Jim Neal in a difficult spot right from the get-go.

Update: I just spoke to Gov. Hunt about his endorsement of Hagan. Click here to listen to him answer whether his backing makes her "the establishement" candidate.

For those of you arriving here from our 10-Plus article (click here to read that) on Senate candidate Jim Neal - a Democrat planning to run against incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole - in today's paper, here are some links:

• * My first set of audio from the interview.
• * My second set of audio from the interview.
• * A prior post on Neal.
• * Neal's web site.

There was a time when a guy could go get the wisdom teeth yanked out of his head and sleep for a good two days without all political hell breaking loose.

This is, apparently, not that time.

The frequent and persistent - occasionally oddly sourced - reports that state Sen. Kay Hagan is running for U.S. Senate despite an earlier decision has everyone in a tizzy.

I've also gotten at least one phone call and a couple of e-mails this morning from folks I would consider well connected saying that it's an iron-clad lock she's going to run.

So here's the deal: a great many people in the Democratic back channel at both the state and federal level expect Hagan to run. That would set up a primary against Jim Neal, who announced he was running about a month ago.

I still have this funny compulsion to confirm it with the lady herself before declaring it iron-clad fact, and I'll let you know as soon as I do.

Continuing from yesterday's post, here's more audio from my interview with U.S. Senate candidate Jim Neal.

• * Despite growing up in Greensboro, Neal has lived outside the state for more than 25 years of his adult live, returning in 2006. I asked him if, given that absence, he was someone who understood North Carolina's issues and could represent the state in the Senate. This was his answer.

• * Sen. Dole has been a close ally of the Bush administration. I asked Neal about that and this was his answer.

• * A reader-submitted question: Which member of the U.S. Senate would you want to model your career after? In other words, which Senator do you admire and why? Neal explains why his pick is LBJ.

More to come.

Update: Dome reports on a poll that shows Neal behind Dole by 15 points or so. That's about where Sen. Hagan has been and, quite frankly, where anyone who is not a statewide figure is going to start. Basically, that poll shows there are 32 percent of the people in this state who will vote against Dole no matter what. The real question is whether any of the 47 percent in Dole's camp would defect should the right opponent come along?

Update: More audio clips.

• * A former investment banker with an MBA from the University of Chicago, Neal is running as a fairly progressive or liberal candidate. He explains how one became the other.
• * Neal on Iraq.
• * Neal said he believed government had a role in ensuring everyone has health insurance, but doesn't offer a specific plan. Click to hear more on the topic.

Over at Talking About Politics, Gary Pearce says Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan is mulling over jumping back in the U.S. Senate contest:

Hagan, a state senator from Greensboro, had looked at running earlier. She pulled back because Senator Charles Schumer from New York, who chairs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, was intent on recruiting Grier Martin. Martin eventually opted out. Now Hagan is reconsidering. She's being wooed by North Carolina Democrats - and by Schumer. The garrulous New Yorker's first task was to eat crow with Hagan.

Full post here.

Hagan would be lining up to take on Jim Neal in the primary before challenging incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole.

Hagan represents Greensboro. Neal is from Greensboro. Throw in Bob Crumley running for AG, Troxler running to keep his seat as Ag Commissioner, and this would make the Gate City pretty darned relevant in the 2008 statewide elections.

U.S. Senate candidate Jim Neal stopped by my office today and chatted for more than an hour about life, campaigning and living in the news cycle of the past 36 hours or so. He is running, in case you haven't heard, for the Democratic nomination to take on incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole.

We covered a lot of ground and I'll be writing a Q&A from the interview for this coming Sunday's paper. In the mean time, here are a first few raw cuts of audio for your listening pleasure:

• * Neal is a Greensboro native and I asked him what he recalled about growing up in the city. He talked at length and this is a six-minute cut of that answer. Around the 3:45 mark he talks about standing in two different lines for the Sunday matinee at the movie theater, something that seems to have been formative for him.

• * The sub-prime mortgage lending crisis will likely still be on the minds of Washington by 2009 should Neal get elected. Click here to listen to us talk about what Congress should be doing on the matter.

• 

• * Much has been written about Neal being an openly gay candidate. Since it seems to be all the rage this news cycle, click here to listen to the 13 minutes we talked about this and related items. At the end of the take, there is one question he wouldn't answer. The other voice you hear toward the beginning of that clip is Neal's campaign manager, Thomas Mills.

• * Now the really controversial question: eastern or western 'cue? You've got to like a candidate who is willing to laugh at your dumb questions. Although he hedged on the styles, he did take a stand on the critter: "Barbecue is pork not beef."

More to come.

The Washington Post has a story today on Joe Trippi's influence on the Edwards campaign. The article rightly notes that Edwards is beginning to sound a lot like Dean did in the 2004 campaign.

Trippi, of course, managed that campaign.

Others say Elizabeth Edwards sees this race as more a cause than a campaign, a belief that makes her and Trippi -- an unapologetic believer in the power of liberal ideals and the overthrow of "transactional politics" -- ideological soulmates.

It's that message -- a fiery, some say angry, populism -- that has drawn attention to John Edwards of late.

One Democratic consultant who has worked with Trippi said the common thread in the majority of the presidential campaigns with which Trippi has been involved is an outrage with the way Washington operates.

I don't know that it would have been a huge surprise to see Edwards turn his campaign more to the Dean model, with or without Trippi's influence.

Edwards had already been hiring elements of Dean's old team and adopting moves from the Dean playbook before Trippi signed on.

Whether the model will work in 2008 has yet to be seen. As the Post itself has noted, the approach has had trouble getting traction.

In case you didn't hear, Gov. Easley was in Greensboro Monday to announce Skybus was opening it's new "focus city" - what some folks might call a hub - at PTIA.

Former Supreme Court Justice Robert Orr, a Republican candidate for governor, doesn't think much of the deal. From a news release:

On Monday, October 22, Governor Easley announced a $3.98 million JDIG award to Skybus Airlines to increase its presence at Piedmont Triad International Airport. Founded in 2004, Skybus is known for offering fares as low as $10. Justice Orr had the following recommendations:

"I could name any number of other areas where North Carolina could benefit from an investment of $3.98 million. Instead, Governor Easley and the Economic Investment Committee have decided it's better for the state to invest in the risky discount airline market. If Governor Easley and the Economic Investment Committee were determined to support Skybus, they could have instead purchased thousands of tickets on Skybus flights to be given to government workers, service men and women, military families, or those who could not otherwise afford to travel by air. Instead the state has provided cash payments to be used according to the liking of Skybus executives. At least then, North Carolina citizens could have gained some direct benefit from the deal."

"Customers will either be excited about the service Skybus provides or they won't. It is not up to the State of North Carolina to interfere. Again, this incentive represents our continued flawed approach to economic development. Instead of wasting state funds to subsidize every day business decisions, we need to focus our investments on improving business conditions and encouraging growth statewide for the betterment of all North Carolina citizens."

In case you don't get the drift, Orr has made reforming North Carolina's corporate incentives system a focus of his campaign.

So over the weekend, the folks over at Blue NC did an online Q & A this weekend with Jim Neal, the Chapel Hill investment banker and Democrat who plans to challenge Republican U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole next year.

During that Q & A, Neal was asked if he was gay, and he confirmed that he was.

Dome noted the exchange this morning.

Now, just a minute ago, AP moved a news alert on the matter:

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (AP) - A spokesman for Jim Neal, the Democrat who plans to challenge Sen. Elizabeth Dole, has confirmed that Neal is gay.

The thing about AP news alerts is they're usually about things that the wire service think will change and dictate coverage plans, and as the name implies, they're usually matters of some urgency.

Now, I may be sleepy after working Saturday and Sunday, but is this really a "release the hounds" moment? I don't know that Neal being gay was a huge secret. Someone mentioned it to me on on municipal primary night.

I'm otherwise engaged today, but Neal is scheduled to drop my offices for an interview on Tuesday. I guess we'll have 24 hours of news cycle to reflect on when he does.

I'll put it to you in the mean time: in this day and age, does it matter here in North Carolina whether a candidate for office is gay?

The only real good yardstick I have to measure is the General Assembly's behavior on the topic. Republicans there seem to think the issue of gay marriage specifically and the more general social topic of homosexuality plays to their favor and have done their best to push bills like a proposed constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage. Legislative Democrats have simply refused to take up the issue or confront it in a meaningful way, relying on Speaker Hackney to big-foot the a gay marriage bill into oblivion this year. Obviously, there's some political calculus being tallied on both sides and one wonders how that translates into the Senate race.

Apart from this issue, what else would you ask Neal if you had the chance?

Republicans aspiring to run for governor in 2008 will be debating at High Point University this Saturday at 2 p.m.

Democrats aspiring for governor in 2008 will be debating at the Koury Convention Center on Nov. 6. The debate is 10 a.m. to noon at the N.C. School Boards Association conference, so I'm not sure if it's open to the public or not.

At any rate, it's nice to see Guilford County getting some love from the would-be chief executives.

A source who gets invites on the cocktail circuit sends along notice that Senator and Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama will be in Raleigh on Nov. 1. The shindig is to be held at the home of Mary Laurie and Joe Cece. It looks like $500 gets you in with the rabble, $2,300 more up close.

Obama's campaign already lists a "Countdown to Change" event in Durham on the same say, but this shindig in Raleigh looks like it's more for the high rollers.

I imagine some folks would spin this as Obama getting all up in former N.C. Sen. John Edwards' face, being that the Triangle is home turf for the 2004 VP candidate. But I suspect that Obama has just learned the lesson that George Bush and a cavalcade of other pols have over the years: there's money in them-there-suburban-mcmansions - yes, even in the Tar Heel state.

State Rep. Grier Martin just phoned to say he will NOT challenge U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole next year.

"I just could not find a way to make service in the Senate work for my family," Martin said. Senators spend weekdays in D.C. and weekends on the road meeting with constituents.

"I left for Afghanistan when my daughter was six days old and I'm still making up for lost time there," he said.

For those keeping score at home, Sen. Kay Hagan has also said 'no' to a potential run. Others to look at, and then turn down, their chance to take on Dole include Congressman Brad Miller and Gov. Mike Easley.

So far, Chapel Hill businessman Jim Neal is the only candidate to jump into the race. He is a political first-timer and a lot of Democrats I know say they don't know enough about him to say whether he'd made a good candidate.

As reported earlier today, state Sen. Kay Hagan, a Greensboro Democrat, says she won't challenge U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

The other sitting member of the legislature publicly pondering a run is Rep. Grier Martin, a second-term member of the House from Wake County.

Martin told me that he WANTS to make a decision by the end of the week but that might not happen.

"I'm off to Fort Bragg for a month's vacation," Martin said of his pending service on active duty. Martin is a JAG officer in the army reserve.

Martin said that he would like to have a decision made before heading out, but that he wouldn't rush things.

"There isn't any arbitrary timeline," he said.

The primary concern in his mind, Martin said, was how a run for the Senate (and a potential victory) would affect his family. Until that question is resolved, he's not going to jump in or out.

Over at The Tavern and The Soup, Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue's teaching experience, or lack thereof, has been a subject of some conversation.

As background: Richard Moore's campaign manager last month circulated three versions of Perdue's resume along with this note:

As you compile bio information on the candidates, attached are Bev Perdue's curricula vitae from 2000, 1995, and 1991. Of particular interest in the 1991 version are two time periods Perdue said she taught school - from 1969 to 1973 in Kentucky, Georgia and Florida; and from 1978-1982, presumably in North Carolina (though no location is indicated).

The suggestion here, of course, is that Perdue was on one resume or the other over-playing her teaching experience and that she is now backing off. You can look for yourself, at least at what Reiff circulated:

• *2000
• *1995
• *1991
• *And for good measure, Perdue does say she's a "former teacher" in her online bio.

So I was due for an interview with the lady herself over at Perdue's campaign HQ this afternoon. While waiting for her to show up, I asked campaign spokesman David Kochman if he could straighten things out.

Kochman said that Moore's campaign may have gotten its mitts on old drafts of Perdue's resume or other non-polished versions. He said that Perdue was by no means disowning her teaching experience and would provide the right years and times so y'all can compare and contrast for yourselves. They are, according to Kochman:

• * 1970-71 Auburn Elementary, Winder, GA Kindergarten
• * 1971-73 Highlands Jr. High, Jacksonville, FL 9th grade
• * 1973-74 Vanguard High, Ocala, FL 12th grade

That jibes in the most part in terms of jobs, but seems to be a year off with what's on the 1991 resume. But Kochman said the 1991 could be an uncorrected draft or simply in error.

At any rate, those dates and teaching positions are what the Perdue campaign is putting out. And it's pretty clear she's not back off having been a teacher.

I just talked to Sen. Kay Hagan about her potential run again U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

"You'll be getting a press release from me this afternoon saying that I'm not going to run," she said. "I've studied it extremely hard. But I really think that right now, I can do more for the citizens of Guilford County and North Carolina where I am."

Where she is, by the way, is one of the top leaders in the N.C. Senate.

Update: Click here for the press release in question.

And over at the Dome, Wake County Rep. Grier Martin says he's still thinking things over but will decide this week.

From our friends at the Associated Press:

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) - A Chapel Hill investment banker plans to seek the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Republican Elizabeth Dole.

A spokeswoman for Jim Neal says he plans to file paperwork with the Federal Election Commission late Thursday to get his campaign started.

Neal is the first announced candidate to seek the party's nomination. Two members of the state General Assembly also are considering whether to run but have not announced their intentions.

Many Democrats consider Dole vulnerable for re-election next year because of her support for the war in Iraq and a poor showing by Republicans when she led the National Republican Senatorial Committee in the 2006 elections.

But several high-profile candidates - including Gov. Mike Easley, Attorney General Roy Cooper and U.S. Rep. Brad Miller - have declined to get in the race.

The latest Elon University Poll is out. Click here for the raw data.

This one looks like it tackled many of the issues that we scruffy media types were reporting on during the legislative session. Some quick-hit impressions:

• * When asked in a vacuum whether they would support a real estate transfer tax being put in place in their county, respondents opposed or strongly opposed the idea to the tune of 70 percent.

  But when the question was modified to ask how they might feel if the revenue was dedicated for education, opposition dwindles and there are more support/strongly support responses than oppose/strongly oppose.

  This is a fairly classic effect in polling. Nobody likes taxes and if you poll them without context, nobody will say they randomly want to raise them. But if you ask whether local governments should raise taxes for a specific purpose, that tends to turn people around.

  I have a feeling that we've just seen a preview of this spring's referenda fights if larger counties decided to put the transfer tax on the ballot.

• * Support for statewide and local laws that curb smoking remains strong, despite many respondents saying they'd wish business owners would take the reigns on the issue rather than government.

  You'll recall an effort to ban smoking in all public places failed in the General Assembly this year. However, a lot of smaller bites at the apple (banning smoking in nursing homes and allowing for bans on college campuses for example) passed.

  These poll results would seem to suggest, as did similar polls taken in the spring, that tar heels by and large would be fine with the General Assembly enacting a smoking ban. However, while tobacco may no longer be king here, there are still a few powerful knights of the realm that defend the industry.

• * It was no surprise that 68.4 percent of respondents said immigration was a "very important" issue in North Carolina. Anyone who hit the campaign trail with any sort of candidate in 2006 heard about it. I would caution that in other surveys when folks are asked to rank immigration against other issues like the economy or the war in Iraq it did not fare as well.

  I don't know whether I should be surprised by them, but the immigration numbers that jumped out at me on this poll were when people were asked if "immigration of Hispanics or Latinos to NC in recent years has been [bad or good] for NC..."

  More than half of those responding said "bad," versus only 21 percent "good."

  That kind of response is why the GOP in particular tried to use immigration as wedge issue in 2006. That plan back-fired here and elsewhere, in large part because Republicans weren't even in the same book much less the same page with each other when it came to fixing immigration problems.

  However, with the issue polling this viscerally, I'd be surprised not to see it raised in the 2008 campaigns, particularly the statewide races for governor and U.S. Senate.

• * When asked about Stem Cells, something over half of respondents said they favored stem cell research and public funding for stem cell research. On both questions, pollsters got about 10 percent "don't knows," which tells me there are quite a few people who haven't made up their mind on the topic. Die-hard opposition to stem cell research ran about 30 percent in the poll, which I think is what I'd expect given voter registration and religious-affiliation trends in this state.

The Elon University Poll released a set of data on President Bush and his job approval rating Monday. (News release // Raw data.)

The over-arching theme was that Bush still struggles in job approval, largely because of the Iraq issue.

A couple of questions lower down in the data set caught my attention. They basically asked if respondents would oppose or favor setting timetables for withdrawal from Iraq.

As a group, poll respondents answered that they would favor timetables, well over 60 percent in each case.

This question interested me for a few reasons. First, it's become quite the issue in the presidential race, particularly on the Democratic side. Also, it has been a notion that President Bush has pushed back hard against.

So I got to wondering was whether there was a strong partisan difference the aggregate data didn't reflect. Did Democrats overwhelmingly support a timetable and Republicans overwhelmingly oppose one?

Well, Hunter Bacot, who runs the poll was nice enough to cross-tab this question out for me. You can see that raw cross tab by clicking here.

As I suspected, there were some differences between Republicans and Democrats, especially when you look at the withdrawal by 2008 question. Still, 44 percent of Republicans said they would support or strongly support setting a timetable for with drawl by 2008.

But look at the 2009 question: 56 percent of Republicans in the survey said they would support or strongly support setting a timetable for with drawl by 2009.

What does this tell us? A few things, I think:

• * Republicans, particularly the rank and file, are not in lock step on the Iraq issue. Not all are following the President's line and many are willing to entertain the idea of a timetable even if the commander in chief is not.
• * While Republicans want to give things a bit longer to work, their patience is not infinite. While a majority don't think a 2008 timetable is a good idea, a majority think a plan to get out by 2009 is.
• * With 75 percent or more of Democrats favoring a timetable for withdrawal, whoever the Dems find to run against Sen. Elizabeth Dole next year should be talking about Iraq early in often, not only in the primary but also the general election.

Greetings from the road. I'm away from firebase Raleigh today, but am making time to check in from the 'boro regarding the latest Elon Poll.

You can find a news release here and the raw feed here.

Update: A good summary of the poll, including results on the presidential races, from our friends at the Associated Press is here.

From a local perspective, this is the relevant bit right off:

Do you plan to vote [for or against] Elizabeth Dole as U.S. Senator from North Carolina?

Answer / Percent
AGAINST - 26.0
FOR - 35.3
TOO EARLY TO TELL(v) - 18.5
DON'T KNOW/ NOT SURE (v) - 18.9
REFUSED (v) -1.2

Those who selected "against" were asked:

Who do you think is the best candidate to oppose Senator Dole? (open ended, no options provided)

Answer / Percent
ROY COOPER - 8.2
BEVERLY PERDUE - 7.5
RICHARD MOORE - 5.6
NAMED SOMEONE ELSE/ OTHER (v) - 5.2
KAY HAGAN - 0.5
ELAINE MARSHALL - 0.5
TOO EARLY TO TELL / NOT SURE (v) - 32.6
DON'T KNOW (v) - 39.8
Total - 100.0

I guess this puts Hagan, a state senator from Greensboro, in the, "It's an honor just to be nominated category." Rep. Grier Martin, of Wake County, didn't even make the break out list and at this point he has just as much of a claim to running as Hagan does. Both have been taking very similar steps in exploring a run.

I'm scratching my head a bit over the people who want Moore and Perdue to run, since they're all engaged in another campaign. True, for the Dems it seems to make little since to have Moore and Perdue beat the snot out of each other when one could be spending time beating up on Dole, but that's not the situation on the ground.

In the world of politics, no good deed goes unpunished nor positive story go without pushback by one's opponent.

Every month I get an e-mail with the agenda for the N.C. Council of State, basically the governor and nine other statewide officers. The group is a vestige of the days when we didn't trust royal/executive authority as far as we could throw the nearest chief executive.

One of the typical things the council does at its monthly meetings is approve a whole bunch of property transactions, sales, purchases and lease arrangements for state facilities.

On tomorrow's next week's agenda is this item, approving the lease for a new Piedmont Triad Crime Lab that will be located in Greensboro.

Funding for the lab was a pretty high priority for Guilford County's legislative delegation and they had hopped all along that it would be located in Greensboro.

So, seeing that the lab was due to be put in Greensboro I phone up the Justice Department to see who might want to chat about it. Attorney General Roy Cooper happened to be the one to call back.

The story is at this link. It's a short talker on the lab, what it'll do, etc...

Cooper, a Democrat, is a member of the Council of State and has said he will stand for re-election next year, which is where the politics comes in.

Greensboro lawyer Bob Crumley, a Republican and the smiling face on the back of local phone books, is running against Cooper. (Background here.)

Well, being a good candidate, Crumley can't let positive spin for his opponent go answered so he sent out a release today. It begins:

Greensboro, September 24, 2007 - For seven years, Roy Cooper has allowed crimes to go unsolved in this state. With the recent announcement that the State Bureau of Investigation will open a new crime lab in the Triad, Cooper is finally admitting what North Carolina law enforcement has known . the SBI crime lab's inability to process key evidence in criminal cases has not been a priority for his office.

I'll post the full release after the jump.

Kind of makes you wonder, though, what Crumley would say about the expansion of the state's crime lab here in Raleigh.

At least we should have a pretty active campaign for AG next year. Now the jump.

Eddie Davis, who heads NCAE says he is running for State Superintendent of Public Instruction. From his news release:

After a great deal of dialogue and positive feedback from family, friends, colleagues, and advisors, I have reached a decision about my involvement in the election of 2008. Thus, I am announcing today that I will be a candidate for the position of State Superintendent of Public Instruction in the spring of 2008. A formal campaign launching activity will occur on Saturday, October 6 in Asheville.

I strong believe that my candidacy will bring excitement, hope, and the joy of learning to citizens from Murphy to Manteo. Using my extensive classroom teaching experiences and my advocacy skills, I will seek to reach and motivate students, parents and community leaders in order to make public education great in North Carolina. Also, I plan to use the campaign to create more respect, responsibility, and vision for the practitioners in all of our schools. I believe that my stellar 30-year teaching career makes me politically and educationally qualified to be the drum major for life-long learning for each and every student.

I will participate in the pilot program that was recently approved by the North Carolina General Assembly. This new law will place limits on the amount of campaign contributions and, thus, will make the investment into the superintendent’s contest more affordable and more equitable for regular citizens of North Carolina.

As a candidate, I will strive to serve as a positive role model for students and for all citizens. I look forward to running a clean, respectful, and issue-driven campaign.

Davis will apparently give a primary challenge to incumbent June Atkinson, who sent this news release back last week:

Today, State Superintendent June Atkinson announced that she will seek re-election. She states that her number one priority is to increase the North Carolina high school graduation rate. Recently, it was announced that the 2007 graduation rate is 69.4 percent, up from the 2006 rate of 68.3 percent. In addition, she reports that even with the increase in standards in the state’s accountability program, the growth and proficiency rates of schools are up. Schools making or exceeding growth targets grew by 17.9 percentage points from 2005-06 to 2006-07 school year.

Dr. Atkinson says, “Our students’ learning is unprecedented and the state public education system is moving in the right direction. I will continue to work with all partners — the State Board of Education, local school leaders, teachers, elected officials, businesses, professional organizations, and parents to ensure our students are prepared for a global economy. A focus on using technology in meaningful ways and developing a system of professional development will be key to improving student achievement. There is much work to be done to ensure students are prepared for the 21st century.”

So, I'm waiting about for folks to return phone calls this afternoon (you know who you are) and trying to be productive at the same time. So I was looking about on YouTube to see who on North Carolina's political scene has been posting videos there.

Treasurer and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Richard Moore has quite a few up, mostly posted by his campaign and clips from press conferences or news broadcasts.

So what about his chief Democratic rival, Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue? I could find only one, and it was posted by the Moore campaign. It is meant, I think, to continue firing away at the Lt. Governor on the abortion issue. Moore has accused Perdue of playing both sides, as detailed in this Under the Dome column.

Here's the video itself:

Does this sort of thing matter? It might. Certainly reporters and bloggers will be looking to YouTube among other sources for primary material to back up our stories over the next year. If a candidate doesn't have material up on a favored medium, that could hurt in intangible but very real ways.

My bet would be Perdue will start hitting the net in earnest after her Oct. 1 announcement.

Update: Perdue does have a website, although it pretty much is one big picture right at the moment, and she has a Facebook group.

Moore's website is here but I don't see a Facebook page for him.

By the way, Republican candidates for governor seem to be similarly disengaged from YouTube, although I was able to find at least one video for GOP candidate Bill Graham.

Update: Sen. Fred Smith, another GOP candidate, has himself a YouTube video too, of what looks to be a campaign commercial. (Hat tip: the Dome-meister.)

In case you haven't noticed, this blog occasionally strays from the state capital here in Raleigh to folks who are in that other capital up I-95, or just want to be. And no, I'm not talking about Richmond.

In the race for the White House, I try to keep loose tabs on John Edwards, the former North Carolina Senator who has pretty much taken up permanent residence at third in the polls for the Democratic primaries.

Slate columnist John Dickerson has a piece up right now called "Time To Panic?" In it, he asks if Barack Obama should be worried that he's loosing ground in the polls to Hillary Clinton. In it, he offers Obama several pieces of advice on bouncing back. Among them is this bit regarding Edwards:

Let John Edwards tear down Clinton. Edwards is the Democratic candidate who looks the most like an insurgent. His strategy may seem frantic at times (no SUVs one day, no congressional health care the next), but at least he looks passionate.

On the same day Obama was giving his low-key tax speech, John Edwards' senior adviser Joe Trippi was going after Hillary Clinton with a meat hook over a fund-raiser she was holding. "That no one in the Clinton campaign—including the candidate—found anything wrong with holding this fundraiser is an indication of just how bad things have gotten in Washington—because there isn't an American outside of Washington who would not be sickened by it," he wrote.

Perhaps Obama can benefit from whatever paint Edwards can strip from Clinton, as Edwards benefited in 2004 from the fight between Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt. But so far, Edwards' attacks haven't worked against Clinton, and there's also no guarantee that the votes would go to Obama even if Edwards were effective.

Click here for the full story.

This notion that "Edwards' attacks haven't worked against Clinton" got me to thinking. Why not? As many strategic advantages (lots of money from powerful contributors, married to the former president, experience in the health care arena, etc...) Clinton brings to the table, she also brings a host of liabilities (lots of money from powerful contributors, married to the former president, experience in the health care arena, etc...).

That which makes here strong also makes her eminently attackable. So what gives?

It may be because Edwards is not only battling his own opponents. Check out this AP column headlined: Is Edwards Real or a Phony?" Edwards is still battling back at the demons of his own campaigns slipups. And that's pretty much a full month after the hedge fund story has been out of the news cycle.

In order to break through the noise, Edwards needs to keep his campaign's house in order.

If Edwards can keep the stories about his campaign from being "here's how bubba shot himself in the foot today" and more about his plans and policies, his critique of Clinton might begin to gain a little more traction. Of course, if that doesn't begin to happen by, say, December or very early January, it may be time for Obama and Edwards to panic.

Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue says it looks like someone is doing opposition research on her campaign from a state computer. Of course, that someone seems to be working for State Treasurer Richard Moore, her rival in the Democratic primary for governor next spring.

For those not imbued in the political arts, opposition research is what one campaign does to find facts, figures and, yes, sometimes just good ol' mud to sling against an opponent.

In a letter (Click here to read, along with various backup material. It's a PDF.) to the state auditor's office, Perdue outlines the following:

• Someone sent her office several request for public information regarding The Task Force for a Healthier North Carolina, a committee that operates under the Health and Wellness Trust Fund, which is chaired by Perdue.
• Those requests ask that material be sent to Moore's campaign office.
• The requests themselves seem to have been generated from a state computer, or at least a state IP address, at the Treasurer's official office.
• Perdue says she has complied with the requests.

Now, the state auditor is Republican Les Merritt, who is himself running for re-election. So here you have a request for a Republican to mediate a political tiff between two high-profile Democrats.

Of course, it's entirely possible that Perdue's office sent the letter to the State Auditor just to create a public record, which could then be disseminated to the media, via the official state computers at the Lt. Governor's office, but I'm sure that's neither here nor there.

I have a couple calls and e-mails in to see if we can sluice through this latest dust up.

Update: Moore's campaign responds. From campaign manager Jay Reiff:

The Lt. Governor's attack today is the height of hypocrisy and phoniness. Everyone knows Beverly Perdue's chief of staff has been running her unofficial gubernatorial campaign for the last two and a half years. This is a political stunt designed to keep people from looking into the fact that he just now started working full-time for her campaign. Additionally, Perdue's campaign chair Robert Zaytoun, who is also a member of her Health and Wellness Trust Fund Commission, recently submitted multiple extensive records requests of the Department of State Treasurer.

In an attached letter, we are asking the State Auditor to look into the use of state resources for political purposes out of the Lieutenant Governor's Office. Treasurer Moore will look into whether anyone in the Department of State Treasurer has used state resources inappropriately. We call on the Lieutenant Governor to do the same thing.

Click here for the afore mentioned letter.

Glad we're having a nice clean campaign, focused on the issues.

Update: From the State Treasurer's office:

"The Department of State Treasurer takes these allegations seriously and will look into them. Political motivations are clearly the basis for these actions."

Update: The Treasurer's office updates us again, this time with a quote from Stacey Phipps, the department's chief of staff:

"It was brought to my attention this afternoon that Julie White, an employee of our Department, sent public records requests using a private email account from a state computer under the name of one of her relatives. To our knowledge, no laws were broken. However, Ms. White has violated departmental policies. Appropriate disciplinary action will be taken."

From a story scheduled for tomorrow's paper:

State Sen. Kay Hagan said Tuesday she is "looking into" a run for the U.S. Senate seat now held by Republican Elizabeth Dole .

The Greensboro Democrat's name has been raised frequently by political analysts over the past nine months as a potential contender. However, this is the first time Hagan herself has directly addressed the possibility of challenging Dole, who faces re-election in 2008.

Until now, Hagan has been circumspect in talking about a potential run, saying during this year's legislative term that she was focused on completing the state budget.

Tuesday, Hagan said Dole is "vulnerable" to a challenge.

"I guarantee you, I wouldn't be thinking about this if I didn't think she was," Hagan said. "She's definitely vulnerable. I don't think she's in North Carolina very much and I couldn't tell you a thing she's done for North Carolina."

Hagan said that she would make a final decision on whether to run "sooner rather than later."

She joins at least two other Democrats in considering a run versus North Carolina's senior senator. Rep. Grier Martin, a Wake County legislator, and Forsyth County Commissioner Ted Kaplan, a former state Senator, also have expressed interest publicly.

Martin recently attracted noticed from political insiders when he met with officials who run the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, a conduit for national money and support.

Click here for the full story from today's paper.

Well, it sounds like the race for state auditor is under way.

I reported earlier this week that Beth Wood, who has been director of the State Auditor's training department, will run next year as a Democrat against her old boss, Republican Les Merritt.

Wood has worked in the auditor's office for 10 years, five as head of the training division.

For those of you from out of state: yes, we elect the state auditor here.

I finally was able to catch up with Wood this afternoon. She had been out of town a few days and tells me that she is no longer welcome at the department.

When I asked her to elaborate, she said she gave a 30-day notice on Friday, Aug. 24. She then headed off to Saturday's Democratic shindig in Greensboro. Wood hasn't formally announced her candidacy but did make her intentions to run known over the weekend.

Wood said she planned to take a couple days off this week and then come back and work until the end of September before launching her campaign.

"I didn't want to leave anyone in the lurch," she said. Wood said she wanted to take the time to train her replacement and make sure projects got handed off to the right folks.

But earlier this week, she started trading phone messages with the department's chief deputy, Kris Bailey

"I was asked not to come back," she said. "Well, I wasn't asked but I was told."

This seemed a bit odd to me, since most places would happily let an employee ride out the 30 days to tie up loose ends.

So I gave Chris Mears, a spokesman for Auditor Merritt a call.

After checking with Merritt, Mears said that Wood had asked to use her comp time to finish out through the month of September so that's why her departure was arranged this week.

"She has been with the agency long enough and she's built up enough time that she will finish out through Sept. 30 but she won't be present at the job, which is not a-typical," Mears said.

I asked a couple times about the difference in interpretation.

"My understanding is there wasn't any disagreement about using her comp time," Mears said.

Mears said that she had a "short, casual" conversation with Merritt on that Friday and that it was Bailey who made the decision about her work status on Monday.

Both Mears and Wood agree that it was Bailey with whom she traded voice mails and that she finally met with department HR folks today to process her out of office. But those are the only point upon which their stories match up completely.

Wood insists that she made it clear she wanted to stick around to make sure her department had a smooth handoff. She described how her voice mail and e-mail access were shut off by Tuesday and how her secretary was asked to box her personal belongings rather than letting her return to her desk.

"I feel back that I'm walking away from there with things left undone," Wood said. "I'm frankly afraid that if things start to fall through the cracks, Les (Merritt) is going to use that against me in the campaign."

So one possible interpretation of all this is that there was a miscommunication between the parties. Another is that an incumbent is pulling the rug out from under a political rival. Given what I have heard so far, I don't know I can make that call right yet.

But no matter which side of the story you find more credible, it sounds like these two might have some issues to work out on the campaign trail.

Not too long ago, I was roused from my pre-bed-time slumber in front of the television by a kind of fluffy campaign-style ad. Its basic message was that Dems in Congress were doing good things and the President Bush should listen to them on Iraq.

So I got to rooting around on YouTube today and ran across the thing. Take a listen. I'd be interested in knowing whether other folks had caught this thing and what they thought of it.

I've seen versions now that were sponsored by both the DCCC and the DSCC. In fact, I spied the version with the Senate campaign tag first and thought they might be softening the ground for an eventual candidate to enter the race against Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

It's definitely a little bit more warm and fuzzy that the other ad I've seen that they were running earlier this year in some other places. That one:

So, given we're months away from the primary, in the midst of municipal election season and there's not yet an announced contender for the Senate race, what purpose do these things serve? I have a call in to the DSCC on this but your take is welcome.

Update: A spokeswoman with the DSCC says that it was a national cable buy and ads were not placed in North Carolina specifically.

The ad, she said, was designed to "keep the pressure on the president and Republicans over Iraq," as well as keep voters up with what's going on in Congress.

A couple folks sent this link regarding Wayne Goodwin not running for labor commissioner my way. From the post:

I will not be a candidate for North Carolina Commissioner of Labor in 2008.

This decision affords me the opportunity to further focus on the needs of my family, the most immediate members of which still are impacted by the rigors and fundraising pressures of my 2004 bid.

This decision also affords me the opportunity to continue my full-time duties serving as Assistant Commissioner of Insurance under the outstanding leadership of Insurance Commissioner Jim Long and to volunteer for him in his 2008 campaign for re-election.

He made the same announcement on his own blog.

I've seen Goodwin wielding the gavel at several statewide Democratic Party events over the past year. And during the legislative session, you can catch him around the legislative building either lobbying on behalf or against bills his department has an interest in or waiting to drive home with his wife, state Rep. Melanie Wade Goodwin.

So who's going to run to have their picture plastered in elevators across the state?

I've been chatting up some folks about the Democratic shindig in Greensboro this weekend. It seems to be your standard issue political fare, although there was at least on campaign announcement.

Those who attended tell me that Beth Wood, who has worked in the state auditor's office for several years, plans to run for the Democratic nomination. Listed at the Director of Training Services on the auditor's website, Wood is lining up to challenger her old boss, Republican incumbent Les Merritt. He voice mail says she's out of the office this week, but we'll still try to catch up with her directly.

Also on the auditor front, an other Democratic name that got floated my way this morning was Joe Sinsheimer, who ran the JIMBLACKMUSTGO.COM website and more recently has been a thorn in the side of legislators like Rep. Thomas Wright who have failed to account fully for their campaign fundraising.

I asked Sinsheimer about this over e-mail. His reply:

"I have had people approach me about running for state auditor and while it is always flattering to be considered for a statewide office, I have no plans to run."

So Greensboro journalist Ed Cone interviewed Elizabeth Edwards for a CIO Insight article on campaign trends:

The Web can be liberating. "It's about bypassing the sieve of the mainstream media," says Elizabeth Edwards, wife and confidant of Democratic presidential hopeful John Edwards. "The idea that you have people standing between you and the voter is diminished, and the capacity to speak directly empowers candidates to trust their own voices." With Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama hogging media coverage, campaigns can push their messages without paying for ads.

"In some ways, it's the way we have to go," Edwards says. "We can't make John black, we can't make him a woman. Those things get you a lot of press, worth a certain amount of fundraising dollars. Now it's nice to get on the news, but not the be all and end all." (Bloggers note: bold mine.)

The larger companion piece is here.

Now that's a dandy way to illustrate how the web might help your campaign overcome certain liabilities, like when two candidates are crowding out the free media time.

But if you're thinking that the quote got some play and maybe blown out of proportion a bit in the wider blogsphere, you'd be right. Here's Ed's take on the quote, plus more from:

• National Review.
• Advertising Age.
• Bob Parks, who I just found today looking about for people who picked up this quote.
• Tech President.

Now, I'll grant you that?s a sexy quote, but there is a larger point to all of this.

Pretty much all good presidential, and more so now statewide, campaigns have a strong online element. Blogs, social networking sites and even static websites (how very 2000!) all play a part. But what part?

Can the online elements help candidates overcome weaker fundamentals elsewhere in the campaign - say in fund raising for traditional media buys or an unfortunate campaign outburst? They haven't quite yet, or Howard Dean would have been the Democratic nominee in 2004 and Larry Kisselwould be a sitting U.S. Congressman.

Especially as I watch state and local campaigns, the online element is becoming something they need to keep up with the Joneses. It is part of the strategy, but even the fanciest of web tools haven't shown themselves capable of overcoming large voter registration margins or big disparities in ad time. Pig pickings, baby kissing and cheesy photo-ops with the local constabulary aren't going away any yet.

Will that change? My own take is that eventually, by sheer dumb luck if nothing else, the guy or gal who runs the best online effort is going to win. But I bet the rest of their campaign will be pretty good too.

Over at the News & Record's religion blog, Nancy McLaughlin asks whether Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney can get past his Mormon religion. In a developing conversation, commenters say it's a matter of him being in the wrong club.

Public Policy Polling put out its latest survey of likely voters this morning. From the release:

Raleigh, N.C. - Barack Obama slid into third place among Democratic presidential candidates according to the Public Policy Polling’s latest primary tracking poll, leaving John Edwards and Hillary Clinton ahead of the field with 29% each. Last month, the top three candidates were in a statistical tie among likely Democratic primary voters.

Fred Thompson kept his lead among Republicans with the support of 30% of
respondents. He was followed by Rudy Giuliani (20%), Mitt Romney (12%) and a
sinking John McCain (7%).

Perhaps the most notable change was Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue reestablishing
a double digit lead (38-28%) over State Treasurer Richard Moore in the Democratic
gubernatorial race. The race had stagnated in previous months with Perdue holding a
four percent lead.

The horse-race stuff is nice, but I what caught my eye this morning was the issue gap between Democrats and Republicans. Dems put the War in Iraq down as the most important issue to them (48%), followed in a distant second by the economy and jobs.

Republicans, too, put the War in Iraq the most pressing issue they saw (34%), but it wasn't so far out front. A relatively close second was immigration. The economy and jobs was way down their list.

This was a pattern that I think we saw in the last election. GOP voters have seized on immigration as an issue and their candidates are happy to talk about it. The problem is, the issue so far hasn't caught on in the Democratic ranks. So Republicans are stuck talking up border security to keep their base happy but it doesn't win over any Democrats, which they need to do in order to win statewide office.

That's got to be quite the conundrum for the Republican gubernatorial contenders, who still all trail undecided by a wide margin. Meanwhile, a third of Democrats say they are still undecided in the race for governor.

Chris Cillizza over at the Washington Post's "The Fix" says "John Edwards is mad as hell and he's not going to take it anymore." More from that post:

Over the last few weeks, a new John Edwards has emerged.

Beginning with the CNN/YouTube debate on July 24, Edwards has appeared far more angry -- outraged even -- at the current Administration, the war in Iraq and even many in his own party. At last weekend's YearlyKos presidential debate, Edwards worked himself into a lather on almost every question -- loudly proclaiming the need for real and big change while dismissing the half-measures and compromises advocated by some of his opponents.

Cillizza sees this as a tactic that could tap into the frustration felt by many in the Democratic party's base. Certainly, the tone echoes the first-shaking anger you see on a lot of sites in the liberal blogshpere.

And it is a marked contrast to the mainly upbeat, hope-for-tomorrow, we-can-do-it-together, Kumbaya optimism that has characterized Edwards the hand full of times I've seen him in person.

I guess my question is whether this is some new scripting - Edwards is a very discipline speaker who will stay on message even if you ask him what color shirt he's wearing - or whether he has tapped some genuine vein of aggravation within himself that's coloring his public appearances.

All the speculation about
who is going to run against Sen. Dole next year (it won't be Rep. Brad Miller) gets even more interesting in light of this post from the Washington Posts' "The Fix" blog:

Through May, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the Democratic Congressional Committee had raised $48.6 million as compared to the $36 million collected by the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee. And, even though the two Republican committees have been outraised by $12 million by their Democratic counterparts, they have actually outspent the DSCC and DCCC $31.3 million to $23.7 million.

[Snip]

The gross disparity between the two sides is often lost in broader stories that look at the financial playing field. Why? Because the Republican National Committee and Democratic National Committee figures are added into the total. Through May 2007, the RNC had collected $39.8 million as compared to $24.6 million collected by the DNC. The RNC ended May with $15 million in the bank as compared to $5.5 million for the DNC.

And, in the 2006 cycle, the RNC played a huge role in the congressional elections -- transferring tens of millions of dollars to the House and Senate committees to bolster their efforts. In the case of the NRSC, the RNC actually jumped in to help fund a series of independent expenditure ads in places like Tennessee, Ohio and Missouri.

What does that mean here in North Carolina?

Strategically, Democrats have that much more incentive to find a credible candidate and spend heavily on the North Carolina race. The Republicans are not going to leave Dole's seat undefended. But plowing money into a hotly contested race here would sap the GOP's ability to play elsewhere in the country. Which means even a "second tier" candidate (someone other than Gov. Easley or Miller) might have that much more reason to expect some goodly amount of help from the national Democrats.

I just spoke to a spokeswoman for U.S. Rep. Brad Miller who said the Democratic Congressman won't run for Senate in 2006. Rumors had been running wide and deep that that Miller would challenge Republican Elizabeth Dole.

I'm scheduled to speak with Miller in the next little bit, and will bring you notes and audio from that conversation ASAP.

Update: Miller spoke to me and reporters from the AP and N+O at a downtown restaurant today. The bulk of our conversation happened inside, but we asked Miller to repeat himself outside so we could get audio without the cheesy elevator music that was playing in the background.

Click here to hear what he had to say.

Update: Miller said that he wanted to run against Dole, but he begged off because of the disruption that it would cause his wife, family and friends.

"As recently as last week I was inclined to do it," he said. But after hitting send on an e-mail to the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee (DSCC) last night, he was done musing with the idea.

Miller talked about bills he hoped to file, including one on predatory lending, as well as his work on an oversight committee to "bring humility to those who have been without humility for a while."

His decision will put Democrats on the search again for a candidate to run against Dole, and there are at least one or two giving it some thought.

(Audio link below.) N.C. Treasurer Richard Moore - a declared candidate for governor, if you didn't know - stopped by the paper's Greensboro offices today and chatted for a while with editorial writer Doug Clark and myself.

I'll have more from that conversation later, but one bit was relevant to this week's budget festivities in the Senate.

Moore is not enamored with the $1.2 billion the Senate would spend on Certificates of Participation (known as COPs), which is a way for the state to borrow money without going to the voters for bond approval.

"It's got nothing to do with the worthiness of the projects," Moore said. He specifically pointed out the proposed nanotechnology school as a very good item on the list. (The Senate budget proposal would borrow $58 million to finish the school.)

But, he said, COPs should be used sparingly, only in instances where they are truly necessary such as building prisons or, say, replacing a school that had burned down.

The state constitution, he said, is fairly clear on how government should go about borrowing.

"If they're such great ideas, why can't we vote?" Moore said.

Of COPs in general, he said, "They should be rarely or if ever used."

Click here to listen to his full answer on the topic. (About 4:15 seconds.)

I love serendipity.

The same day I get an e-mail pimping a website urging Rep. Brad Miller to run for U.S. Senate (more here from Dome) I get this e-mail:

Tomorrow Public Policy Polling will be releasing a new poll featuring a hypothetical US Senate match-up between Elizabeth Dole and Attorney General Roy Cooper.

Remember the days when candidates had to get off their keisters to create their own buzz?

The pollsters over at Elon have been at it again and are ready to treat us to three days (today, Monday and Tuesday) of poll releases.

Today's (click here for the release and click here for more data) looks at likely contenders in the presidential and governor's races.

And the winner is ... I don't know.

No, really, more people answered "I don't know" or "Too early to tell" than actually choose a candidate. In fact, 87 percent of those who responded said they didn't have a choice in the governor's race.

The curious among you may remember polls by Civitas or PPP that seemed to show pretty firm indicators of support for one candidate over another.

So why is the Elon Poll so squishy?

A couple reasons:

• Elon merely asked who people would vote for, but did not give a list of choices. Other polls have given respondents a list of those who might be running to choose from.

• Elon did not poll "likely primary voters" but called a more general population-wide sample.

What does all this mean?

"What you're going to pick up framing it (the question) this way are the political elites," said Poll Director Hunter Bacot.

Those folks who had opinions in the Elon Poll were activists, gadflies or the politically engaged (probably campaign donors to boot).

The presidential campaign has made more noise, so you had more people give an answer. But over-all, the general population is not all that engaged in the 2008 campaign yet.

So there's been news of late that U.S. Rep. Brad Miller might kind of, sort of, maybe be thinking about running against Elizabeth Dole.

So I guess the boys over at PPP decided to poll what that might look like:

According to a Public Policy Polling survey released today, if Congressman Brad Miller were to challenge Senator Elizabeth Dole in a 2008 race for the U.S. Senate he could be competitive. The survey of likely general election voters in North Carolina reveals that 44% of voters would choose Dole today and 33% would choose Miller, while 22% are undecided.

Of course, one wonders whether Miller will actually take the plunge. He’s begun acquiring seniority and status in the House, is in a district that he will seemingly always poll well in, and a Senate campaign would by no means be a certain proposition. While there is no sure thing in politics, do you trade in the low hanging fruit for a far from certain prize?

From an Edwards for President campaign e-mail:

Elizabeth and John wanted me to tell you about a TV appearance that will be broadcast on Sunday night. They'll sit down for an interview on 60 Minutes with Katie Couric. The program is scheduled to air Sunday at 7:00 PM ET.

Given the announcement regarding Mrs. Edwards' health last week, it will probably be interesting.

Republican Sen. Fred Smith made his run for governor official today. From his news release:

"If we are going to create a government that trusts the people first and does not perpetuate bigger and more intrusive government - then we need a change in management in the Governor's office that will institute real reforms, Smith stated.

Standing on the steps of the Borden House, the cottage once a part of the Methodist Orphanage in Raleigh, Senator Smith told friends and media how "his Mom and Dad brought their family to this "special place" where they came to serve others many years ago. His father was a coach at the orphanage, and his mother a cottage "housemother" for 24 boys.

"Watching my parents, I learned firsthand what service to others could mean," Smith stated. "I began to hope that in someway, I could be like them and follow the example they had set for so many."

Smith campaign website is here.

He joins Salisbury lawyer Bill Graham (who brought your the stop illegal immigration and gas tax commercials) and former N.C. Supreme Court Justice Robert Orr (late of the N.C. Institute for Constitutional Law) on the GOP side of the ledger.

These three have signed up for what may be one of the hardest gigs in North Carolina politics: wresting the governor's mansion from Democrats. Republicans have only held the state's top job for 12 of the past 100 years and a Dem has been in residence at moldy manor since 1993.

Gov. Mike Easley can't run for his job again in 2008, and it looks like the Democrats will pick from either Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue or State Treasurer Richard Moore. Neither of those two have officially announced they're running, which is sort of like a rhinoceros not announcing it’s sitting on your head...you kind of know it's there anyway.

Oh, and the Libertarians are apparently going to run Michael Munger.

This story regarding John Edwards’ fundraising has been making its way over the wires for the past few days:

RALEIGH - Democratic presidential contender John Edwards hopes to make some quick campaign cash off a conservative columnist's slur.

"I was going to have a few comments on the other Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards, but it turns out you have to go into rehab if you use the word `faggot,' so I -- so kind of an impasse, can't really talk about Edwards," Ann Coulter told GOP activists attending the annual Conservative Political Action Conference on Friday in Washington.

(snip)

Edwards' campaign sent an e-mail to supporters calling the comment a "shameless display of bigotry."

It asked supporters to help raise $100,000 in "Coulter Cash" so that the former N.C. senator could show "every would-be Republican mouthpiece that their bigoted attacks will not intimidate" him.

Using a highly publicized attack on one’s candidate to raise money from grass roots supporters is an idea straight out the Howard Dean 2004 presidential campaigns playbook, which makes sense given who his senior internet strategist is.

I’ll be interested to see if other candidates use this kind of fundraising judo, which is custom made to raise a little money from a broad base of donors. Given some of Barack Obama’s recent run-ins with unfavorable coverage, I would think his campaign would seize on the strategy as well.

I’ll do a separate post on the substance of all this in a minute, but for those following the pen and pad stuff with Richard Moore, it came to a rather anticlimactic conclusion this morning.

I wandered into the conference room in question, and the television and radio guys were all set up. No hired goons were confiscating camera equipment at the door.

Moore cam in relatively on time, said their might have been some misunderstanding, and proceeded to give what was (to me anyway) a darned useful presentation.

If you’d like to hear him speak to the press issue, click here.

So why all the fuss? I can't really say. I’m just happy things turned out as they did, with EVERYONE getting their questions answered with whatever tools of the trade they wanted on hand.

For substance, another post is forthcoming after lunch.

So you’re a presumptive candidate for governor. You’ve just been pilloried in the national media for conflicts of interest related to your office.

You want to regain control of the story. So you:

a)Come out immediately, guns a-blazin’ to answer the charges.

b)Run and hide.

c)Hack off your local media, especially broadcasters.

For the answer, I refer you to an e-mail from State Treasurer Richard Moore’s office:

State Treasurer Richard Moore will hold an on-the-record pen and pad briefing for capital area reporters on the state pension fund’s investments on Friday, March 2nd at 11 a.m. The briefing will be held in the Dawson Conference Room on the first floor of the Albemarle Building (325 N. Salisbury Street). There will be time allotted for questions.

My colleagues in the broadcast media are understandably upset about this, despite being offered opportunities for “sound bites” afterward.

Although there is a tradition of doing this sort of thing is practiced in Washington, D.C., calling a press conference and then restricting the tools of the trade allowed is pretty much unheard of around these parts. And since we’re all doing audio and video now, it affects print reporters as much as broadcasters.

I (and many others) have asked for clarification and will post here when I get it.

Update:Laura over at WUNC has also engaged on this story. For the record, it does appear from a LEGAL perspective, Moore can set whatever rules he wants. Whether they make any sense, I'll leave that to you in the peanut gallery. The comments link is open.

Update2: Moore's press person writes back:

Thanks so much for your email. The Friday briefing is an opportunity for members of the Capital Press Corps to learn about the pension fund’s investments, basic investment strategy and industry standards. It was designed to give reporters a solid foundation in investments in order to inform their reporting going forward. That being said, the discussion will be on the record; questions will be taken; and handouts will be available.

I am asking that all reporters rely on “pad and pen” due to the location size and the number of potential attendees and in hopes of fostering an atmosphere of discussion. Treasurer Moore will be available after the briefing to provide video and audio for those reporters that would like it.

I’m pretty sure this is not going to deter very many folks from showing up with their full set of gear.

Update2: Laura writes back to Moore's folks:

With all due respect, excluding a third of the press corps from being able to gather on-the-record information does not foster an atmosphere of discussion - and it's ethically inappropriate for a public servant in a public building, talking about how he's managing public dollars.

It's also implausible to think there's no room in the Albemarle building large enough to accommodate cameras and microphones. That's
never been a problem in the past, when you *wanted* broadcast coverage.

I'll be bringing my recording equipment. So will a lot of other radio and tv reporters. If you choose to throw us out, or bar us, we'll be recording that. And it'll be that story - not Moore's investment success - which will become the headline.

Full disclosure, Laura and I are going to talk to a journalism class this afternoon. This post might be on our minds.

WUNC's Laura Leslie points to the kind of publicity that a budding gubernatorial candidate can do without.

In the March 12, 2007, issue of Forbes magazine, Neil Weinberg investigates Richard Moore, State Treasurer of North Carolina, in “Pensions, Pols, Payola.”

As treasurer for the state, Moore is the sole fiduciary for the state’s retirement system, controlling $73 billion in assets. Forbes exposes how this gubernatorial frontrunner for 2008 rails against conflicts of interest on Wall Street, yet takes campaign donations from money managers eager for his business.

If you care to tiptoe through Moore's campaign finance records yourself click here.

(For you folks back in Greensboro, it doesn’t appear that Percy is a donor.)

Closing the loop on this post, the Associated Press reports Edwards will keep his two new controversial bloggers.

For what it's worth, Media Matters has been pushing the flip side of this story pretty hard...something about glass houses and stone throwing.

In a comment to this post, Jim asks that I write something on Amanda Marcotte, former N.C. Sen. (and presidential candidate) John Edwards’ latest web hire.

Marcotte, formerly of Pandagon is one of two recent web hires. The other is Melissa McEwan, late of Shakespeare’s Sister.

She has only just gotten up and running at Edwards’ blog, but Marcotte has engendered a lot of hostile traffic on the conservative/Republican end of the blogsphere, who find her writings on the Duke Lacrosse case objectionable. She probably didn’t help her cause with those folks any when she deleted one of her more caustic posts from her blog, but of course not the Google cashe.

For whatever reason, McEwan has escaped the same push-back.

Jim says that since we wrote about Mathew Gross, Edwards’ senior internet strategist, we ought to profile all his other web staff to.

Well, after consulting with my bosses, we’re probably not going to file a piece for the newspaper on Marcotte. The only reason we profiled Gross was that he’s local: he lives in Greensboro, is part of the Greensboro blogging community, etc. . .

Marcotte is from Texas and doesn’t hold the same appeal for us. We haven’t, for example, profiled Edwards’ fund raiser or campaign manager or press person for the same reason. Were she from Greensboro (or Guilford or Rockingham counties for that matter) I’d probably be working on something already.

However, if you’d like to see what folks who are bothered about the hiring are writing, I can point you to the following:

• Town Hall.
• Beltway.
• Jawa.
• Malkin.

There are more, but that should get you started. And if you’re interested in an opinion from the flip-side, Cliff Schecter at Huffington writes on it.

As always, the comments link is open.

How many times does Easley have to say he’s not running for U.S. senator?

Those imps over at Public Policy Polling simply refuse to take the man at his word and did a test of Easley versus Sen. Elizabeth Dole among likely voters.

I would have liked to have seen a control candidate or two, like a generic Democratic choice or a Congressman or someone. Dole’s popularity has suffered during the past two years and one wonders if it’s Easley specifically fairing well against her or whether any credible candidate could.

Public Policy Polling has surveyed Tar Heels on who they think might could be their next governor and president. Democrats were asked about Democratic contenders, Republicans about Republicans. From the news release:

Among Republican primary voters, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads his top competitors with the support of 30% of respondents. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich received 29% support and Senator John McCain received 23% support.

Conservative activist Bill Graham is the frontrunner in the Republican gubernatorial field
with the support of 24% of likely Republican primary voters.

Former Senator John Edwards leads his home state with the support of 29% of likely Democratic primary voters in his race for President. Senator Hillary Clinton was supported by 16% of respondents, while Senator Barack Obama garnered support from 15%.

Lieutenant Governor Beverly Perdue is ahead of State Treasurer Richard Moore in the race for the Democratic nomination for governor, 32% to 20%.

Click here for the full report.

I really wouldn’t make too much of the numbers at this early stage of the game, but I do have some thoughts.

On the Republican side, it seems odd to me that McCain would be trailing among presidential contenders, but maybe the RINO (Republican in Name Only) patina that hangs about him sometimes does him harm in the wake of the Richard Morgan – Jim Black co-speakership mess.

I’m not at all surprised to see Edwards leading the field of Democratic presidential contenders but not running away with it. I think I’d be more skeptical of that number if it showed Edwards with a big lead right now. I’m a little surprised, but not totally shocked, that Sen. Clinton’s number is as high as it is here in the south, but that’s not completely out of line.

On the Republican side of the gubernatorial equation, you can see the results of what buying a lot of television commercials early will get someone like Bill Graham. But that race is anyone’s ballgame at this point.

On the Democratic gubernatorial equation, Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue has had the higher profile job, so she has the higher profile numbers. We’ll see if she has a truly entrenched competitive advantage if Moore can’t move the needle any by November.

More Update:

• Linkage from Edwards' own blog. (It's a bit hard to get to and I think you need a sign in.)
  
• For those who have asked, yes, Mathew spells his first name with one "t," not two as is more common.

Update:

• Click here to go to the story.
  
• Click here to read editor John Robinson's entry on the story and catch the discussion over there.
  
• Another post by Robinson on the Edwards subject.
  
• Sue has some thoughts.
  

I have a profile piece coming Sunday on Mathew Gross, a Greensboro resident who is former N.C. Sen. John Edwards' senior internet strategist for the 2008 presidential campaign. Gross worked for the Dean campaign and created Blog for America, which is still operating, although no longer as part of a campaign operation.

Some odds, ends, links and audio related to the story:

Looking back to former N.C. Sen. John Edwards' announcement he was running for president again, Asheville's Kerra Bolton compares Edwards and another likely contender. Sen. Barack Obama. She writes first of Obama:

He’s charming, intelligent and has a compelling personal story that he documented in his best-selling memoirs. But other than serving in the Illinois Legislature, Obama has no previous political experience.

Edwards, 53, has faced this "gravitas" question in the 2004 campaign. He slyly dodged it by focusing on his dreams for America’s future instead of dwelling on his past.

Click here for her full column.

While Edwards has done some work on this issue, and executed some artful dodges, he’s not out of the gravitas woods yet. Case in point, this column from Shawn Macomber:

Those who say John Edwards doesn't have the foreign policy credentials to lead the nation in a time of global war obviously haven't noticed the bracelet he wears to express solidarity with Sudanese refugees in Darfur. (Don't worry. He isn't shy about pointing it out.) Actually, if Edwards primary foreign policy goal weren't surrender in Iraq, I'd assume Elizabeth augmented this year's stocking full of Wendy's gift certificates--you know, the fast food joint where John, Elizabeth and a few dozen of their favorite media sycophants spend the Edwards' wedding anniversary--with a Weekly Standard subscription.

Hat tip to Bubba on the link.

Now, Edwards campaign won’t spend a whole lot of time trying to win over folks like Macomber or Bubba. But in some primaries where there are bunches of conservative Democrats – North Carolina’s comes to mind – and, if he gets that far, a general election, they will be going after some of the folks on the center-right that may be reading those two and others like them.

Which means the gravitas question is going to be around for a while. The question will be whether his work as a private citizen traveling and advocating will count as much in the minds of voters as the experience that comes serving in an elected position like the Senate.

Update: Click here to link to Friday's story.

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

So this post, on Edwards running for President, has garnered a few comments – both by e-mail and in the comments section.

Some have been positive, like this one from Linda in Greensboro:

John Edwards is a wonderful candidate for President and he has an excellent chance of winning this time. His platform and persona reminds me of John F. Kennedy. His wife is an impressive woman, strong, smart and compassionate.

But there have been a fair amount of folks who are put off by Edwards’. That and more, after the jump.