Graduation rates for Dudley and Grimsley a fluke
Update: It turns out the cumulative promotion indexes for Dudley and Grimsley this year were based on student population fluctuations stemming from enrollment, according to Gongshu Zhang, chief accountability and research officer.
He was supposed to discuss the rates Dec. 19 but the item was postponed until Jan. 9. However, the agenda included a breakdown of Dudley's rates. He explained to me this week that the index, which represents the probability that freshmen at a school will graduate in four years, is reliable when enrollment is consistent from year to year. In Dudley and Grimsley's case, it wasn't because of redistricted students between the schools in 2005. So it appears Amos Quick was correct to believe redistricting played a factor. Dudley Principal Phyllis Martin, who was out of town the week I wrote the initial stories, called me the following week to say she was suspicious of the numbers as well.
I plan to write a fuller story on this next week once folks return from vacation. To be clear....
* The CPI uses a formula involving enrollment data to project the percentage of freshmen who will graduate on time. It is a probability and therefore not a true graduation rate.
* The traditional graduation rate is calculated by determining the percentage of seniors who graduate that year.
* The state and district will start next year reporting the percentage of freshmen who actually graduated in four years (they started tracking a few years ago cohorts of freshmen).
Comments (16)
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OF COURSE ITS NOT TRUE GRADUATION DATA AND (AS USUAL) SOMETHING STINKS.
IT JUST GOES TO SHOW ALL WE NEED ARE BOARD MEMBERS TO ASK THE RIGHT QUESTIONS AND THE SMELLY STUFF WILL COME OUT.
Posted on December 30, 2006 12:39 AM
Why wasn't this 'fluke' caught last year when Grimsley had a significant drop and Dudley an increase. Weren't the numbers questioned until this year when Dudley reported a significant drop?
Posted on December 30, 2006 7:34 AM
Obviously there is not a single person in this town who believes a single thing that comes out of GCs. If they do they are fools.
Posted on December 30, 2006 9:53 AM
Another good chuckle coming from the N&R editorialists this a.m.-talking about test scores and how the Early College tests scores are a success. Here's a program that gathers many of the brightest students in the county-by definition-kids who are capable of starting college classes early, and touting their good test scores as some kind of achievment by GCS. It's like gathering the NBA Allstars together and saying these guys can really play basketball-and it's all because of strong leadership by the NBA league office.
The people who write these editorials are absolutely insulting in how dumb they must think their readers are...or, are they trying to make people laugh on purpose?
Could this be clarified, Morgan?
Maybe we've been taking them seriously all these years when they aren't supposed to be taken seriously.
Posted on December 30, 2006 10:50 AM
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year, folks. It seems as though fuzzy math is making its way out of GCS again. And kudos to those who are catching this fuzzy math. Is anyone asking the questions that need to be asked? Again, where's the accountability from GCS? There seems to be no accountability when it comes to money, and there also seems to be no accountability when it comes to graduation rates. It's disgusting.
Posted on December 30, 2006 11:52 AM
Savage,
This editorial was brought to you by the same person that said that Grier's contract extension was warranted since student achievement was rising. It's sure hard to understand how that is calculated. I guess it's as Mr. Huey says "fuzzy math".
Posted on December 30, 2006 3:43 PM
NOTICE TO THE GENEROUS BESTOWERS OF THE "RESENTMENT ENDOWMENT".
Now we know accuracy and objectivity in re; to GCS politics have never been exactly the N&R's forte, but we're struggling to see the implication of the nHP parents being resentful because the CP was dropped a year ago.
I realize that many of us in nHP are, well, lets just say; that unlike many of the N&R staffers, we're not the sharpest tools in the shed, and let's face it, for not wanting our kids hauled on a bus for hours a day to a failing school and instead wanting them at a functioning school close to home, we are dumb, flat-out, stone cold un-enlightened bigots who really need to get a life, but...we're still not getting the above.
Now if you would have alluded to the subsequent Map C scandal, AKA "The Wrath of Dot" which incidentally has done absolutely nothing except make people want to leave nHP or not live in the Parkview section of HP since they now ride on bus three hours a day instead of one, and you would have tied this to the "Endowment" then it would be better understood.
Thank you for your time. We realize this is a minor point.
Happy New Year.
Posted on January 1, 2007 9:43 AM
Skeetclub, don't forget that most of the N&R staffers that write and comment about education don't even have any kids.
They're so young I doubt they even pay any measurable property taxes in the county other than their cars; yet they comment like they have value to add to the community.
Posted on January 1, 2007 11:33 AM
Buck,
There is a profit to printing what Terry says to print. Believe me, they're profiting--kids or no kids...
Happy New Year Friends!! It's gonna be a great one!
Posted on January 1, 2007 11:45 AM
The ones that do have kids put them in Grimsley or Northwest!
Posted on January 1, 2007 1:39 PM
Is it true that the newest school board member Garth Herbert said that he is donating his board salary back to education? I don't know where I heard this but if it's true I commend him for putting his money where his mouth is. I haven't seen any other board member make such a profound statment. I think it's indeed going to be a great year for our students. FINALLY, someone is on the side of the students. I wish for our kids that the other board members either start working FOR them or get off the pot, so to speak.
Posted on January 1, 2007 5:46 PM
There are a large number of people who either a) cannot afford/gain credit to buy a house in Guilford County, yet have children in great need of a good education to supplement what may be lacking at home (due to lack of knowledge and/or time); or b) choose not to put their money into a so-so-called "good investment" (there are often better places to put the money), yet also have children who attend the public schools (and need same said supplemental support, as I venture most or all children do).
I think the taxes one pays through purchases (since the state pays out more than the county for education) and income more than qualifies any citizen to have a say in the running of the schools. Unless you, Buckmtn, are suggesting a sort of tiered system of power based on one's address?
Posted on January 1, 2007 9:43 PM
There is at least one other board member that donates his/her salary. I do also think that there are several good Board members.
I do appreciate and like Amos, Alan, Anita, Dr. Routh and Darlene. It sounds like Jeff Belton and Garth are on the right track too.
As for the rest (Deena, Kris, Dot Kearns and Walter Childs) there is a minimal contribution. They just take up space, add no value and they dont deserve ANY salary.
Posted on January 1, 2007 10:51 PM
And it is these "fab-4" that we need to send out the door next year!
Posted on January 2, 2007 6:39 AM
Deena Hayes needs to submit her resignation!!
I don't know who should be insulted the most
the "slavemasters" or "the slaves"!!
Posted on January 2, 2007 8:25 AM
Please take it easy on Deena. Growing up in a bi-racial home confused her as a child and now she is trying her best to compensate for that.
It's a new year. Let's put it all behind us and have a fresh start.
Posted on January 2, 2007 12:34 PM