News-Record.com

Do you know what the special called board meeting is about tommorrow night?

I read that the meeting tommorrow is to discuss a future bond package.

What will it mean if they vote to put the re-building of the Eastern Guilford High School
in a fall bond referendum?

Will this postpone the re-building of Eastern Guilford High School school?

What will happen if the bond does not go through?

Why would they choose to use a bond referendum
over the money that they have already chosen to use to "fast-track" the building process?

Are they using Eastern's tragedy to push through the bond referendum?

How long will it take to build and install the POD village?

Morgan,

Your article in today's paper regarding GCS graduation rates was very interesting. After winning an award last year for having such a low dropout rate, we find this year that the true graduation rate is only 63%.

I can't wait to see the positive spin that the board and administration place on that number.

The board voted to ask county commissioners to get a special financing for Eastern, it will not be on the bond. The pod village is on go as per the last meeting.
Alan Duncan wanted to tie in Eastern to the bond, but the vote went the other way.

Debora,

I understand the purpose of this meeting may be to reverse this vote. I think Alan may have had time to convince the other board members of this action.

"What I want to see is 100 percent of our students graduating from high school," Grier said Wednesday. "If that takes four years, that's fine. If it takes five years, that's fine."

While I agree with Grier's wish that 100% of students graduate from high school, it really remains just that, a wish. I also agree that if it takes five years for some students to graduate, then that is also fine.

My request of Morgan and Jennifer is to investigate this and report for us what the difference is between students graduating in four years and five years. Basically, what is the margin between four years and five. How much greater is the graduation rate in five years than the 63% in four years. I suspect that the margin isn't very much, and if that is so, Grier's comment is misleading, as his comment implies that a greater number graduates in five years.

Re the quote from the article below.
Why did Grier ask to use a measure that reports a 98% graduation rate instead of the real result of 63%? I think I know why.

What other numbers is he "playing" with?

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"But the district has been using a formula called the cumulative promotion index to predict the percentage of freshmen who will graduate on time. Grier began requesting its use a few years ago because he thought it more accurately reflected graduation rates than tracking seniors. He also thinks it will mirror the new rates".

Dear Concerned, I don't know if they are going to tie Eastern, I don't think that will pass because if they add it to the bond and the bond doesn't pass that leaves Eastern hanging. I have a meeting tonight, but hope to hear about it from you guys. The paper says that $571 million for 30 some projects. I think there is some huge over inflation in some of the amounts I have heard. I still don't understand why it will cost $51M for Eastern and the cost of Northern is $41M (including land, road expansion, water, sewer, athletic fields etc) that is a 20% jump in cost with much fewer amenities. It will be interesting to watch and see if the cuts that Northern had to make are cut from Eastern (like scoreboards etc)

To answer some of the above questions,
The 98 percent rate comes from the method that tracks seniors and is considered to be inflated. The CPI that Grier recommended using is more conservative and considered closer to the state's new rate. For example, the CPI since 2002 has averaged 71 percent for the district.

Also, if you take the district's drop-out rate of 3 percent and multiply it over a 4-year time frame, you're looking at 12 percent of high school students dropping out. Or roughly 2,500 students. If you add the drop-out percentage to the preliminary graduation percentage you get 75 percent. Grier said Wednesday that he suspects the many of the students in the gap could be the 5-year graduates. You could also have some unaccounted for transfers in that bunch as well.

At this point there is no reason to suspect the district has deflated its drop-out rate, but rather that there is a gap in the graduation rate and drop-out rate that needs to be accounted for.

Morgan,

Your theory doesn't take into account that most students who drop out do so in their 9th grade year. The 3% number cannot be used as a constant variable across a 4 year high school career.

The bottom line is that only 63% of kids who enter high school graduate.

The district can brag about 3% drop out rates, but that's really insignificant. A full 37% of our kids DO NOT achieve a diploma.

37% of kids who, because of the lack of a high school diploma, will not be admitted to a university, will not enter a community college, and will have an awfully hard time finding a decent paying job.

37% of kids who are likely not to live above the poverty level.

That's a lot of kids who are being failed by this school system and a lot of kids who will be dependent upon federalized assistance.

Education is the key to a better life.

Morgan,

That gap between 75% and 98% is the essence of my question regarding 5-year graduates. That's 23% of students unaccounted for. Isn't it a stretch to believe that many students graduate in five years, rather than four years? That would mean that 23/63 or one in four graduates were in five years. Wouldn't the schools know if that was happening with such a large number of students? Is there a method to test that theory? It would seem that 23% of students is a large gap that is unexplained and unproven.

As regards the drop-out rate, doesn't it only measure students that notify the schools that they are dropping-out during the school year? What about the students that just don't come back to school each year? If they don't start the year, then they aren't captured in the drop-out rate, so where are they accounted for? The schools would not technically be deflating their drop-out rate because the students were never part of the calculation. Aren't they, then, a big chunk of that 23%.

Stormy,
I think you are correct about the drop out rate being for students that come to school and then 'say' I am dropping out. Many just don't show up after they are 16, often times over the summer. They barely squeak by during school and then decide to leave after that special birthday. Now that NC is taking away drivers license if you drop out that might entice a few to stay in, but many inner city kids don't have access to a car so their license isn't an incentive. Others drive without a license.

The only way to help this situation is to get people to realize that education is the ONLY way to bettering your lifestyle, unless you can win American Idol.

That's the Magnet Program that is missing....

The Fantasia Academy of Performing Arts for Unwed Mothers.

The above response was the poorest excuse yet out of someone from the N&R. Why doesn't the N&R try abiding by a little bit of the following code of conduct:

Preamble
Members of the Society of Professional Journalists believe that public enlightenment is the forerunner of justice and the foundation of democracy. The duty of the journalist is to further those ends by seeking truth and providing a fair and comprehensive account of events and issues. Conscientious journalists from all media and specialties strive to serve the public with thoroughness and honesty. Professional integrity is the cornerstone of a journalist's credibility. Members of the Society share a dedication to ethical behavior and adopt this code to declare the Society's principles and standards of practice.

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***** End of Cut & Paste ******

Is this philosophy foreign to the N&R?

I think the graduation may be much lower.
My son started his ninth grade year with well
over 300 students in his class.

There were only 130 names on his senior class roster at the beginning of his senior year
and around 119 students when he graduated.
Some of these students may have went somewhere
else by choice, but new students came in.
Nothing other than dropping out would explain
this severe a drop. I can name five of these students that dropped out as ninth grade level students. A few were actually first year ninth graders, but several were 18 year old 4th-year ninth graders.

The boys I know are also come from white, middle-class males with a traditional family, a house, a car, a job, a computer with internet access, and drug habits!

Dear Graduation Rates,
Which school in GCS has a senior class of only 119? I am shocked. Of course, in my area (NW/N) we are so overcrowded we don't know anything about small classes so it is hard to think about kids actually knowing their classmates. There are now 450 in my son's 8th grade class at NW(4 new students this month alone).

Debora

The class with 119 seniors the day of graduation
had between 300-400 in eigth grade and they were
NOT redistricted and were not split between high schools. This is a problem and I want to know what happened with these students and is this happening across the county.

Me too, I'd be very interested in learning where this is taking place...

E.C. Huey
2008 Guilford Co. at-large school board candidate
www.hueyforguilfordschoolboard.org

We have a statistician on the staff.
Dr. Zhang.
Why is he not explaining these discrepancies?
Grier simply guesses. Zhang is the man.
He should be able to answer these questions.
Why did we hire him?
Where are these lost kids hiding?

How many people know, we are the first school
district in North America to have our quality system

correction:

We have a statistician on the staff.
Dr. Zhang.
Why is he not explaining these discrepancies?
Grier simply guesses. Zhang is the man.
He should be able to answer these questions.
Why did we hire him?
Where are these lost kids hiding?

How many people know, we are the first school
district in North America to have our quality system ( ISO 9001:2000)
accreditation revoked?