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Yup, it's another blog. Welcome to Decision 2008, the News & Record's campaign blog for the coming year. If it's on the ballot, we'll probably be writing about it here.

Who's we?

Well, right now is me, Mark Binker, state government reporter and author of the Capital Beat blog. I'm kicking things off because many state and federal campaigns began ridiculously early and are already in full swing. Heck, the Iowa Caucuses are less than three weeks away.

Joining in will be our reporters covering elections for everything from High Point City Council, to the county commissioners and school board and judicial elections. I'll let them introduce themselves when they log in.

Oh, and you. Not only are the comment lines always open, but we're open to suggestions, tips, criticisms, etc... Have a short piece of political thought? Depending on what you serve up, we just may post it here.

Need some practice? Click on the comment link below and let me know what you're reading about any state or federal campaign. Who should be on our blog roll? What's the best undiscovered political site out there? Don't want to comment? E-mail me at mbinker@news-record.com.

If you're like most American voters, you're done eyeing the presidential campaigns like the cute girl on the other side of the Junior High School gymnasium and maybe ask her to cut a rug. Maybe you've been lurching around in a scrum with folks in your particular click - Republican, Democrat or Ron Paul..

Now of course, there's always those more advanced kids, who are way beyond hopping awkwardly around the linoleum tile and slow dancing to every song - even Sympathy for the Devil -- which would make a great campaign theme.

Those kids are Iowa and New Hampshire. Hey - let's see 12'' of space between you two!

Actually, to be fair, there are a hand full of primaries (or caucuses, in the case of Iowa). But with all the jockeying for position that's gone on among the state parties this year, who can tell who's voting when?

Well, the good folks at Project Vote Smart have the most reliable list I've seen.

A quick check will show that it's not just the Iowa Caucuses on Jan. 3 and New Hampshire Primary on Jan. 8. Also in January:

• * Wyoming's Republicans on Jan. 5.
• * Michigan on Jan. 15.
• * Nevada on Jan. 19.
• * South Carolina on Jan. 19 for Republicans and Jan. 26 for Democrats.
• * Florida on Jan. 29.

Now, Wyoming, Michigan and Florida are the rebels in this group. The local pols there crashed the dance are defying the wishes of the chaperones, er - state parties. And they're getting hit with sanctions like losing delegates to the state convention. (In Michigan, some candidates like former N.C. Sen. John Edwards won't even be on ballot.

By the end January, it should be pretty clear which candidates have a shot and which ones are about to be cosigned to the political dust-bin. But in case there's any doubt, Feb. 5 should shake things out. More than 20 states will have Republicans and/or Democrats make their choices that day.

A lot of political pundits will be surprised if there is really a race left after Feb. 5. And the conventional thinking goes that it really will be all over but the crying by late March.

Of course, North Carolina doesn't get around to holding our primary until May 6. That's the equivalent of finally tapping the little red-headed girl on the shoulder right about the time DJ plays Stairway to Heave...(Er- Time of Your Life for you youngsters.)

Unless some very strange stuff happens, Tar Heels will have little direct say in who the major party candidates are. (I wrote about this back in August for our Discover the Triad publication.

From the Associated Press:

WINSTON-SALEM, N.C. (AP) _ U.S. Representative Virginia Foxx is endorsing former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in his bid for the White House.

Foxx said Friday that she is supporting the Republican for his "leadership, experience, vision and values." The two-term representative from North Carolina's 5th District cited Romney's work to enforce immigration laws, reform health care and protect values.

All the state's Democrats have endorsed former U.S. Sen. John Edwards, who represented North Carolina for one six-year term in the Senate.

From the Boston Globe, among others:

Tom Tancredo pulled out of the presidential race yesterday and endorsed Mitt Romney, saying his erstwhile rival is the Republican with the best chance to win the White House and continue the fight to end illegal immigration, an issue the Coloradan helped push to the forefront of the campaign.

Does this mean that immigration isn't an important issue in the presidential campaign?

Heck no. Especially on the Republican side, immigration is going to be a huge issue this cycle. Voters are frustrated by Washington's inaction on the topic and in the absence of policy, they seem to be looking for the "get-tough" candidate, at least on the GOP side.

But what it does mean is immigration isn't the only issue.

Go ahead, think of another policy stand you've heard Tancredo take. I'll give you a minute.

. . . .

Can't do it, can you?

Whether through his own doing or some slight of media coverage, Tancredo became known as the "immigration guy" and only the "immigration guy." Even Ron Paul is known more than just being the Republican who wants to get the military out of Iraq.

Although Tancredo is bowing out, I would say he's got to get some measure of credit for forcing Mike Huckabee to harden his tone as he charges up the polls against Mitt Romney.

Click here for a related story from our (recent) archives.

For those of you on any sort of political campaigns direct mail or e-mail list, this note sent by Sen. Kay Hagan's campaign ought to look familiar:

Everyone wants to make a difference and I am convinced that if we want to make a difference here in North Carolina, we need change in Washington. Please join hundreds of other North Carolinians by contributing to my campaign for the U.S. Senate.

[snip]

P.S. Your contribution of any amount - $25, $50, $100 or more before the December 31st reporting deadline will help me demonstrate to the rest of North Carolina that I can win this race! Click here to contribute now! Thanks again for your support.

Dec. 31 is a key deadline for candidates seeking to build credibility for next year's run. The Democrats lining up to take on U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole certainly fall into that camp.

Hagan, a Democratic state senator from Greensboro, and Jim Neal, an investment banker from Chapel Hill, are the front-runners and running roughly neck and neck in the polls. A fundraising lead on this coming report could help one begin to build a lead in the polls.

But just how important it is depends on who you talk to.

Thomas Mills, Neal's campaign manager, says candidates want to have enough money on hand but won't be playing the "who-has-more" game get. He points out that both Hagan and Neal jumped into the race at the beginning of the current campaign finance reporting quarter. While both should have been able to build up some funds, neither the race nor the money chase will be over Jan. 1, he said.

"There's nothing going to be make or break for either campaign with this report," Mills said.

True enough. But money in politics begets more money. People like to bet on a winner. And if one of the Democrats can roll out an eye-popping total on their end-of-year report, it could suck the wind out of their opponents fundraising.

As for Dole, she had $2.3 million in the bank as of Sept. 30 and has continued to raise money. It was more important for her to raise money early in the year to show that she could still put together the kind of finance effort that helped bring her victory in 2002.

"With the amount of money she's raised, whatever needed to be answered for Sen. Dole has been answered," said Mark Stephens, a consultant with Dole's campaign.

In fact, the leading Democrats' eyes do seem more on Dole than on each other.

"I look at it as if I'm running between now and next November against Elizabeth Dole," Hagan said this week.

I've always thought polls were a bit like Santa Clause. Just because you saw results, there still have to be some things taken on faith in order to believe. (And it's probably only a matter of time until Santa does some polling and decides to switch from reindeer to over-grown bunnies for sled propulsion.)

At any rate, the latest Zogby Poll on the presidential campaign popped into my e-mail this morning. From the summary:

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama would defeat all five of the top Republicans in prospective general election contests, performing better than either of his two top rivals, a new Zogby telephone poll shows.

His margins of advantage range from a 4 percent edge over Arizona Sen. John McCain and a 5 percent edge over Arkansas' Mike Huckabee to an 18 percentage point lead over Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, the survey shows. Against New York's Rudy Giuliani he leads by 9%, and against Fred Thompson of Tennessee he holds a 16 point edge.

Details after the jump.

Boys and girls, the politicians are getting all creative in the run-up to Christmas. We take you now to the Democratic primary for governor, where Bev Perdue and Richard Moore are battling it out.

First there was this YouTube video from Perdue, claiming Moore was responsible for the Randy Parton mess.

Then Moore campaign comes back with a little poem:

When on my computer there arose such a clatter,

I sprang from my desk to see what was the matter.

Away to Youtube to watch a video in Flash,

An attack ad at Christmas seemed awfully rash.

Baseless vitriol filling the monitor's glow

Gave the lustre of Jesse Helms to objects below

When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,

But a Perdue contributor, and eight tiny reindeer,

With a stupid old letter, so grouchy and quick,

I knew in a moment it must be a trick.

Full poem here.

Actual response here.

Every year, the capital press corps in Raleigh puts on a follies night, with mainly the state legislature, lobbyists and other hangers on as our audience.

And every year, someone will ask, "So, you have enough material?"

The typical reply is something like, "Sure. We have 170 of the best writers taxpayers can send to Raleigh.

Well, if an Associated Press story moving for the weekend is any indication, presidential candidates may be filling in as ad hoc writers for late night programs, who are scheduled to struggle back to life without their writers next month. From the story:

NEW YORK (AP) _ Attention, presidential candidates: Not to disrupt your holiday plans, but if you have any cringe-inducing mistakes, insensitive jokes or outright hypocrisy yet to engage in, there's no time like the present.

That is, no time like until early January, when late-night comics return to the air again.

For seven weeks, Hollywood writers have been on strike, which means that for seven weeks, candidates have been free of the often scorching satire heaped on them by the likes of Jon Stewart, Stephen Colbert, Jay Leno, David Letterman, Conan O'Brien and Jimmy Kimmel.

Yeah, but they've still had to put up with us scruffy newspaper types, who all think we could do stand-up if called upon.

More of the story after the jump.

From a story in Sunday's paper:

GREENSBORO -- Howard Coble will be the first to admit he's no spring chicken -- or any other cliché you want to use.

"Let's face it, 76 is getting long in the tooth," Coble said Friday after driving home from Washington the day before.

The Greensboro Republican has reached an age when most of his peers think about retiring rather than asking the voters for another term.

It's possible that during the upcoming election campaign, voters could start thinking about the fact that Coble will be 79 before the next Congress adjourns in 2010.

"Surprisingly enough, I don't recall a constituent ever saying that," Coble said.

According to the House clerk's office, the average age of a U.S. representative when the current term began was 55, and the average congressman had served 9.3 years. Coble was first elected in 1984 and was out of high school before that average congressman was born.

While he said he is "nearing the end of his legislative career" and won't "be up there eternally," Coble also said he intends to win another term.

Click here to read the whole thing.

Coble refused to say when he might retire, so I'll put it to you. How old is too old to be knocking about up in D.C.?

From other scruffy media types writing about presidential candidate and former N.C. Sen. John Edwards:

• * Just back from the frozen Midwest, Winston-Salem reporter James Romoser writes that Edwards is putting all his chips on Iowa.

  More so than his rivals, he is trying to convince Iowans that he will fight for them because he understands them - because he is like them.

  It's a risky strategy for a Southerner who speaks with a drawl and oozes charisma. He sure doesn't look or sound like Iowa.

• *The N+O's Rob Christensen says Edwards is trying to once again play the closer in Iowa.

• * But Charlotte's Mark Johnson reports from New Hampshire that playing the closer and toughening his tone isn't pulling Edwards up in the polls there.

• * Meanwhile, fellow candidate Sen. Barack Obama says Edwards is pulling the same type of political junk he complains about.

From Capital Beat:

Just talked to former City Council member Don Vaughan. He told me that he has filed paperwork to run for Sen. Kay Hagan's seat in 2008. Hagan is running for the U.S. Senate.

More online here and a previous story on potential replacements for Hagan here.

Presidential Candidate (and former N.C. Senator) has a couple of new ads out, one in South Carolina on in New Hampshire. They're kind of two sides of the same coin but you probably won't see either on the tube in North Carolina unless your down in the Charlotte media market or the rabbit ears on your television are tuned just so. (North Carolina is a late primary state, so we're unlikely to see televsion money spent on us.)

But you can view the YouTube version of the New Hampshire "Born For" here:

The Associated Press offers the following analysis:

TITLE: "Born For."

LENGTH: 30 seconds.

AIRING: New Hampshire.

SCRIPT: John Edwards: "I'm John Edwards and I approve this message. For 25 years, corporate greed has gotten its way in Washington, destroying American jobs and the middle class while the establishment did nothing. Insurance lobbyists killed health care. Energy giants make billions from insane gas prices. And more jobs were lost. As much as we like to think so, good intentions won't change a thing. Corporate greed won't be stopped without a president who fights for you. Saving the middle class will be an epic battle, and that's a fight I was born for."

KEY IMAGES: Other than a brief opening photo of Edwards, the only image is of the Democratic presidential candidate speaking directly to the camera. Edwards is wearing a plain black sports jacket, white shirt, blue tie and lapel pin. He's seated in front of windows with sheer, white curtains. The stark background draws viewer attention to the candidate's face.

ANALYSIS: The ad is consistent with the former North Carolina senator and trail lawyer's populist campaign theme: that he will oppose rich, powerful corporations to improve the lot of ordinary Americans.

The South Carolina ad tweaks that theme and inserts a reminder that Edwards was born down there:

In case you're beginning to write up your score cards for the coming year:

• * State Sen. Katie Dorsettsays she will run for another term in the 28th District. She's a Democrat.

• * Democratic Rep. Alma Adams says she'll run to keep her seat in the 58th House District.

• * Former City Councilman Don Vaugahn has announced he'll run for Sen. Kay Hagan's old seat in the 27th District. Vaughan his a Democrat and seems to have made the rounds before announcing. Fellow Dems and County Commissioners Paul Gibson and Melvin "Skip" Alston had taken a look at the race but now say they won't jump in.