Polling: Potential match-ups
I've always thought polls were a bit like Santa Clause. Just because you saw results, there still have to be some things taken on faith in order to believe. (And it's probably only a matter of time until Santa does some polling and decides to switch from reindeer to over-grown bunnies for sled propulsion.)
At any rate, the latest Zogby Poll on the presidential campaign popped into my e-mail this morning. From the summary:
Illinois Sen. Barack Obama would defeat all five of the top Republicans in prospective general election contests, performing better than either of his two top rivals, a new Zogby telephone poll shows.His margins of advantage range from a 4 percent edge over Arizona Sen. John McCain and a 5 percent edge over Arkansas' Mike Huckabee to an 18 percentage point lead over Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, the survey shows. Against New York's Rudy Giuliani he leads by 9%, and against Fred Thompson of Tennessee he holds a 16 point edge.
Details after the jump.
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
In detail, Obama leads:
- Romney 53%-35%
- Huckabee 47%-42%
- Giuliani 48%-39%
- McCain 47% - 43%
- Thompson 52% - 36%
Keep in mind, this was a national poll of 1,000 likely voters, not specific to any one state. So it doesn't reflect how he might do in early primary states. Performances in Iowa and the like can change the national poll numbers pretty rapidly. Democratic Sen. John Kerry was exactly nowhere before coming in first in Iowa in 2004.
Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards didn't do as well, but still would take out three of five top Republicans.
In detail, Edwards:
- Leads Romney 50% - 38%.
- Leads Huckabee 47% - 41%.
- Trails Giuliani 45% - 44%.
- Trails McCain 46% - 42%.
- Leads Thompson 51% - 35%.
The poll has a margin of error of 3.2 percent, so Edwards and Giuliani are really in a statistical dead heat, although McCain squeaks by clean.
As for Sen. Hillary Clinton, she leads only Romney and Thompson in this theoretical match-up.
In detail, Clinton:
- Leads Romney 46%-44%.
- Trails Huckabee 43%-48%.
- Trails Giuliani 42% - 46%.
- Trails McCain 49% - 42%.
- Leads Thompson 48% - 42%.
That's the kind of result that just might turn off an Iowa Democrat. If you think that Huckabee might be the eventual nominee and Clinton doesn't match-up well against him, you might be willing to go over to Edwards or Obama.