News-Record.com

Update: Click here for Sunday's story on Edwards and the other primaries this month.

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

I have a story coming for Sunday's paper on John Edwards' chances for the presidential campaign going forward. From his campaign's perspective, it's not terribly upbeat, talk of Seabiscuit or not.

For that story, I talked to folks not only in New Hampshire (where there is a primary Tuesday) but also in Nevada and South Carolina.

Nevada will have a caucus much like Iowa's later this month. It's the first time Nevada has played this meaningful a part in the presidential election, so folks are kind of unsure whether the polling out there is telling them anything meaningful. For caucuses, you not only have to be able to figure out the prevailing opinion but whose likely to show up. The second part of that is what's in doubt.

In Nevada, I talked to Jon Ralston, a long-time journalists turned political analyst. Edwards, he said, ran well early there but fell behind Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama when the former North Carolina senator redistributed resources to Iowa in an attempt to win there. (No, that didn't work out so much.)

Among the reasons Edwards was expected to do well, Ralston said, was strong support for and from labor unions. But one of the most important unions Las Vegas, the Culinary Workers, have delayed issuing an endorsement that Edwards had lobbied for. That local, the 226, is cool on Edwards despite having pressure from their national organization. Or, more correctly, they seem to want to back a winner and Edwards doesn't seem to be it.

The Associated Press wrote about this at the end of December.

There was some expectation that they may have issued an endorsement this week, following Iowa. The union, however, has delayed again.

Ralston wrote the following in an e-mail sent Saturday:

The question of whether 226 might split off from the international if the parent still inists on going Edwards is interesting. I simply don't see 226 going with Edwards at this point, but the split would be a painful, last resort move. The locals do not want to have to diverge from the parent's endorsement.

Finally, what if Clinton were to win New Hampshire and decisively? That seems unlikely, but what then? Couldn't her team credibly argue that 226 could be the force that changes the course of the presidential race by breaking the tie? The difficulty there is that while she has a formidable organization in Nevada, Obama's is a carbon copy of the one that organized so ferociously in Iowa.

Ralston said he expects the local culinary workers to endorse Obama, especially if he comes out of New Hampshire with the same kind of strength he showed in Iowa. In an interview Friday, he said losing the endorsement would be "crushing" for Edwards in Nevada.

More coming in Sunday's paper.