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Decision 2008

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McCrory coming Tuesday

The Charlotte paper says Mayor Pat McCrory is coming to Jamestown on Tuesday.

Scott Mooneyham says it's awful late for McCrory to be getting in the game.

I don't disagree with Mooneyham entirely, but I think the dynamics of a four way race give McCrory a fallback position. With four credible candidates in the race, they would all probably be playing first to make a run-off election. Avoiding a runoff off would be a bonus.

In North Carolina, you have to win 40 percent of the primary vote to avoid a primary election runoff. If McCrory steps into the race, that's a hard number for any of the candidates to get to.

Between name recognition and a geographic base, McCrory should have enough votes for a top-two finish. At that point the Democratic nominee will almost certainly be chosen. So Republican voters will then get to choose which of their remaining candidates match up best with whoever the Democrats have. My guess is that's an election where McCrory would excel. The question for him is whether he could win over the hard-core Republicans who are more likely to vote in such an affair.

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