News-Record.com

A recap from the end of the filing period. A number of offices are uncontested, meaning filing was tantamount to election:

PPP reports that Bev Perdue has a 27 point lead over Richard Moore in the Democratic Primary for governor.

Meanwhile, the same polling firm tells us Pat McCrory and Fred Smith lead the field of Republican contenders.

What all does this tell us? Without any big shifts in the political landscape:

• * McCrory and Smith seem to be heading to a runoff in the Republican primary. Neither seems positioned to get the 40 percent needed to avoid a run off and neither seems likely to forgo the option. Bill Graham is the closest of the remaining contenders, but doesn't seem to be gaining ground. Still, he's within striking distance and has money to make a move.

• * Moore needs to get on the stick. A 27 point deficit is surmountable, but only if there's time. There's less than two months before the primary.

• * Those trailing in either primary for governor, no matter the party, have limited time to make their moves. Presidential primary results from earlier this week point to a Democratic race that will still be somewhat in play by the time it hits North Carolina.

  That means the national campaigns will be spending money here (sucking up available television time) and getting more free media (sucking up available media attention) and politicking here (sucking up available voter attention). You need all three things to make a move in a campaign.

In my rounds of county commissioner calls today I talked with District 5 Republican Billy Yow and District 8 Democrat Skip Alston, who both gave me a laugh with their updates on how their reelection campaigns are coming along.

Alston told me that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are heading in town to stump for him.

"They heard I was getting contested and said they were going to come through," Alston said, laughing.

It's doubtful that Democrat Greg Woodard, Alston's District 8 primary competitor, has much to worry about. With Hillary's wins in Texas and Ohio, she and Obama probably have much bigger fish to fry.

Billy Yow said he held a big fundraiser Tuesday night with more than 400 supporters that raised about $20,000 for the campaign through raffle ticket sales, he estimated.

Like District 8, the winner of the District 5 seat will be decided in the primary. Republicans Lisa Andrews and Rick Wallace are aiming for the seat Yow holds now.

Yow said he spent time talking to folks and serving food, and when I asked if he made a speech, he said he told a joke, paraphrased here:

Sen. Elizabeth Dole's legislative press office just sent out this PDF which gives the senator's own rundown of what she did in 2007.

This is pretty much a "here's why you should vote to send me back to Washington" type of missive, fairly typical for any incumbent. It's also the type of document I would expect her political opponents to try and pick apart.

For example, listed as a "key accomplishment" was this:

Opposed Washington-Beaufort Counties site for a Navy outlying landing field and had funding for the OLF stripped from defense bills. Elizabeth Dole has stated that broad local support for an OLF is essential. She has assured North Carolinians and advised the Navy that she will oppose the Navy’s efforts to acquire any site in North Carolina that fails to meet this standard.

But those without long-term memory damage will recall articles and editorials like this one that my friend Scott Mooneyham wrote in early 2007:

North Carolina's two U.S. senators, Elizabeth Dole and Richard Burr, apparently don't want to insert politics into the process.

So, despite pressure from critics back home, neither has taken a stand on the Navy's plan to build a practice jet landing field near a pristine federal wildlife refuge in the eastern part of the state.

They haven't done so even though opposition to the Navy's plan is fierce among residents in Washington and Beaufort counties living near the proposed site.

Dole's supporters will argue that in the end she helped derail the project. Opponents will argue that she came in to shoot the wounded only after constituents complained loudly.

At any rate, a document like this gives a strong hint of the sort of things Dole will be running on come the General Election. Interestingly, I bet it also gives us a glimpse of the type of things that her opponent will try to chip away at as well. Speaking of "chip," here's another accomplishment that her eventual opponent will likely hammer away at:

Called for reauthorizing and responsibly expanding the State Children’s Health Insurance Program so that all eligible children in North Carolina are covered, and opposed a bill that would have disproportionately burdened North Carolina’s economy to fund the program. After this bill was twice vetoed, Dole successfully advocated for a long-term extension of SCHIP to end the uncertainty facing North Carolina and preserve coverage for children in our state. Elizabeth Dole continues to advocate for a bill to reauthorize and expand this valuable program in a way that truly helps, not hurts, North Carolina.

Democrats say that the Republican-lead resistance to the SCHIP expansion actually denies coverage to children who need help. And Sen. Kay Hagan, one of two Democratic front-runners, listed Dole's opposition to SCHIP expansion as a reason she got into the race.

Gerald Witt writes in Sunday's newspaper about the boom in young-voter registrations.

What do you think is driving the increase in young people signing up to vote?

I'm in Davidson with the Neal campaign right now. I just sent this to our night desk:

DAVIDSON, N.C. -- A poll released Tuesday by Survey USA shows Chapel Hill investment banker Jim Neal leading Greensboro state Sen. Kay Hagan for the first time in the campaign.

Hagan and Neal have beening running since late fall and Hagan has consistently out-polled Neal.

In the latest poll, 21 percent of respondents said they favored Neal to Hagan's 19 percent. More than 44 percent of people are undecided.

"It indicates there's a shift," Neal said when asked about the poll. "There's an undercurrent that's starting to take hold."

Neal credits his showing to an aggressive grassroots campaign.

Click here to see the poll in question.

Update: Okay, a few things I wasn't able to get out earlier:

• * The Hagan campaign had no comment on this.
• * Survey USA uses the automated response type of polling, and so is viewed with skepticism by some.
• * PPP's Tom Jensen (who uses similar polling methods) writes about his own skepticism here.

Whether you buy into the specific numbers or not - recent history gives us reason to be skeptical - the Neal campaign is taking this poll as a good sign. I'll be looking to see if this result is replicated anywhere.

Independent producer Jim Longworth sends word that a special episode of Triad Today is coming up. Five of the six candidates for governor will be on the Friday March 28 show, 6:30 a.m. on ABC 45. It re-airs Sunday, March 30 at 10 p.m. on MY48. You'll also be able to catch a live stream on the triadtoday.com website during the month of April.

Richard Moore is the only major party candidate who didn't sit for one of the segments.

State Sen. Kay Hagan recently did an interview with NBC17 about her Senate run. It looks like the station itself has posted it to the internet, so I have no guilt about sharing it with you.

Let me know what you think. The comment lines are open.

Ah, a statewide political campaign - how glamorous, right?

Sort of.

Tuesday night Chapel Hill investment advisor and U.S. Senate candidate Jim Neal visited local precinct meetings and other small gatherings in Davidson, Charlotte and the area. At these sorts of gatherings, a legit statewide candidate is a rock star of sorts. Everyone's happy to have the attention, wants to shake a hand, etc...

But there's the less glamorous, less public part of the day. Aside from doing media interviews with one of us scruffy media types (not me) this morning, Neal has spent a good deal of his day on the phone, chatting up donors. In this picture, he's working on a blog post, editing the rough draft a staff member sent along.

On the road, coffee shops (and anywhere else with free wireless access) become temporary offices. This one happens to be a Panera bread north of Charlotte.

By the way, that headset is attached to a fantastically dinged-up Blackberry, taped at the corners and scratched to high heaven.

This afternoon, he's is off to more interviews and more donor calls before doing some "meet-and-greets."

Neal's blog is here, although the post he was working on above isn't up as of this post.

A group of school bond supporters built a site with an overview of the bonds and the related projects.

The group, Vote Yes for Kids, gives a contact list and a link with frequently asked questions too.

While there's a $45 million bond for rebuilding Eastern Guilford High School, there's another $412 million general school bond for voters to decide on in the May 6 primary.

The group coordinator is Anita Bachmann, parent of a Page High School student.

In the Democratic U.S. Senate primary, Chapel Hill investment advisor Jim Neal and Greensboro state Sen. Kay Hagan have played nice with each other in the press releases, mainly targeting their sharpest comments at Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole.

Looks like that's over.

Neal's campaign put out a news release titled "Where's Kay?" today. That echoes the regular stream of attack pieces that party organs have launched against Dole under the title "Where is Liddy?" ( Here too.)

I'm told by a Neal campaign staffer that was a "happy coincidence," but there you are. (Update: I'm told by the Hagan campaign that she has agreed to do the League of Women Voters forum, just confirming earlier this week.) From the release:

The people of North Carolina will have the opportunity to hear the views of all the Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate - all except for State Senator Kay Hagan.

Ms. Hagan has ignored the invitation from the League of Women Voters and Public Radio East to participate in the debate at Craven Community College in New Bern on Friday March 28 at 8 p.m. It will be broadcast on public radio stations statewide. The deadline for participating passed this week with no response from Hagan.

Jim Neal, the Chapel Hill businessman running for U.S. Senate, is calling on State Senator Hagan to participate in a series of six debates across the state in Charlotte, the Triangle, the Triad, Asheville, Fayetteville, and New Bern.

"These debates will give voters an opportunity to see who the Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate really are and what we believe. It seems Appropriations Chairwoman Hagan thinks this campaign is about calling in favors from high-dollar Capitol insiders to pay for carpet bombing the state with poll-tested political ads, but the people of North Carolina deserve better. They deserve a real discussion of the issues facing our state and our nation," Neal said.

Hagan's failure to appear at the New Bern debate is not Hagan's only rejection of an unscripted exchange before the voters.

Hagan has ignored requests for a debate sponsored by WTVD-TV ABC 11 Eyewitness News Raleigh-Durham.

That will sound kind of similar to folks following the Democrat gubenatorial primary, where Treasurer Richard Moore has accused Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue of ducking debates.

More news from the U.S. Senate Primary:

• * Hagan has a new website. Via Cone.
• * Dome says Hagan has a new Googlely ad.
• * PPP says Hagan is running a classic Washington media-blitz campaign while Neal is tapping grassroots.

Update: So after Neal's first news release goes out, Hagan's campaign says they are signed up for the Public Radio debate. Then comes this from Neal:

State Senator Kay Hagan has made another public about face. Her campaign is now saying she will join the Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate in a debate on March 28 - after failing to meet the deadline for the forum sponsored by the League of Women Voters and Public Radio East.

The Hagan campaign's assertion that she will participate in the debate came after the Jim Neal campaign revealed that Sen. Hagan failed to tell Public Radio East she would attend the debate. Her campaign web site does not list the debate at Craven Community College in its "Kay's Upcoming Events" section.

Sen. Hagan has also failed to respond to an invitation from WTVD-TV for a televised debate among the Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate.

Today is not the first time Senator Hagan has abruptly changed course.

Hagan, a chair of the state Senate Appropriations Committee, inexplicably entered the Senate race after publicly announcing she had no interest in challenging Elizabeth Dole for the U.S. Senate. (See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHaauvJnNLA&feature=related

Jim Neal, the Chapel Hill businessman running for U.S. Senate, is calling on State Senator Hagan to participate in a series of six debates across the state in Charlotte, the Triangle, the Triad, Asheville, Fayetteville, and New Bern.

Still no word from Senator Hagan on that.

Update: And about five minutes after that second release from Neal hit my in box, this came from the Hagan campaign:

GREENSBORO, NC- State Senator and U.S. Senate Candidate Kay Hagan (D-Guilford) this weekend will continue traveling the state talking to voters in North Carolina who believe that Washington is broken and the state deserves new leadership in Washington which puts their needs first.

Kay will speak at the North Carolina Association of Educators annual meeting on Saturday in Fayetteville and then meet and greet voters in Clinton, Sanford and Asheboro later that day. On Sunday, Kay will head to Charlotte to speak to the Black Political Caucus of Charlotte-Mecklenburg.

Earlier this week Kay’s campaign confirmed her attendance at the League of Women Voters/Public Radio East Debate, scheduled for March 28 in New Bern, and also reached out to members of the African American community to propose a debate specifically addressing issues important to the African American community.

“It’s important to Kay to meet voters one-on-one and talk with them about the issues they feel are most important in this election, but Kay doesn’t feel that interaction should be limited to those people who can get themselves tickets to a debate,” said Communications Director Colleen Flanagan. “That’s why, in addition to debates, she’s out-and-about all over the state in the remaining weeks before the primary, talking to voters about the things in Washington they believe need fixing and how she’ll do that as a U.S. Senator.”

Who was it that said, "Now's the fun part?"

Two challengers in two different Guilford County Commissioner races now have an official web presence.

Democrat Greg Woodard, District 8 candidate.

Republican Rick Wallace, District 5 candidate.

Jay Ovittore endorsed Senate candidate Jim Neal in a blog post on the BlueNC site. This is a bit of an internecine feuding. Ovittore is from Guilford County, as is state Sen. Kay Hagan, Neal's primary opposition in the primary.

From the post:

I have tried to work with both camps in the Senate race and the only one that will give me the time of day is Jim's. The straw that broke the camels back however, Kay Hagan will speak at one of my primary opponent's events. This is after pledging to help my campaign and never following through.

For those of you asking what sort of effect this sort of thing has, I don't know. Ovittore is not a well known commodity and it seems unlikely he's going to swing a lot of voters in state races. Still, he seems to be well-liked by some activists, so maybe those who were fence-sitting in the Senate race might be pushed over the Neal camp.

Just by way of information, the other candidates in Ovittore's primary - 6th Congressional District, now held by Rep. Howard Coble - are Teressa Sue Bratton and Johnny J. Carter. Hagan and Bratton seem to be on pretty good terms.

For those wondering, political consultants would agree with Ovittore when he starts out his post by saying he shouldn't be endorsing anyone. Candidates with their own primaries tend to stay out of one another's' primaries since they run the risk of hacking off potential friends and supporters. That's doubly true in the case of Hagan, who is by far the most influential sitting legislator from Guilford County and backed by a number of local politicos.

U.S. Senate candidate Jim Neal, of Chapel Hill, picked up an endorsement from the Black Political Caucus of Charlotte-Mecklenburg today. Both he and Greensboro state Sen. Kay Hagan spoke to the group over the weekend. From Neal's news release:

Dwayne Collins, Chairman of the Black Political Caucus of Charlotte-Mecklenburg says, "The membership of the Black Political Caucus is proud to support Mr. Neal with our endorsement in the U.S. Senate race. We thought Jim is the ideal candidate to defeat Elizabeth Dole, and that is why we are behind his candidacy. He was the best candidate on the issues that affect all citizens, but especially members of the African American community. We look forward to working with Jim Neal to improve the lives of the human family of Charlotte and Mecklenburg County."

Neal has been working hard at cultivating support in the African American community. As an example, I'm told both by Neal and folks who were there that he was working the room pretty hard during the CIAA tournament earlier this year.

In other campaign news: Hagan's camp has announced they've "officially" re-launched her website. The re-launch actually happened on Friday but they sent out the news release today.

Security concerns didn’t derail Sen. Barack Obama’s plans to campaign in Greensboro this week, and he will make a visit to the area soon, a spokesman said today.
“It had nothing to do with security,” said Dan Leistikow, a spokesman for Obama’s campaign.

'Tis the season for political endorsements, and state Sen. Kay Hagan of Greensboro just landed one of the blue chips of the endorsement world. From a news release:

State Senator and U.S. Senate Candidate Kay Hagan (D-Guilford) today was endorsed by EMILY's List, the nation's largest political action committee and financial resource for women running for elective office. "Kay Hagan personifies the strength, experience and tenacity needed to change Washington and to bring North Carolina's priorities back from those of President Bush," said Ellen R. Malcolm, president of EMILY's List. "A no-nonsense legislator and accomplished businesswoman, Kay has proven herself as someone who delivers and has worked across party lines in the state Senate to enact critical legislation for North Carolinians. EMILY's List and its members are proud to support Kay Hagan in her efforts to bring a fresh and effective North Carolina voice to the U.S. Senate."

Okay, to be fair, there's no one else in the race the Emily's list was going to go near. There's no other female in the Democratic primary and Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole doesn't fit into the PAC's self-described mission to elected "pro-choice Democratic women."

Still, money and endorsements beget money and endorsements, particularly for a political candidate not well known outside her state senate district. This isn't so much an endorsement that will bring legions of voters or field workers. It's more like a Good Housekeeping Seal or Energy Star rating for political givers that says you can invest in the candidate without being worried they'll take some nutty position that'll have you asking for a refund.

Mental health and mental health reform are the topics of the next session
in the series Civics 104, "Your Health, Your Money, Your Vote."

The Tuesday panel will feature Dr. Masoud Hejazi, a Greensboro psychiatrist certified in child, adolescent and adult psychiatry and addiction medicine, and Robin Huffman, director of the North Carolina Psychiatric Association.

The session is open to the public and will start at 7:30 p.m. Tuesday in the education building at Wesley Long Community Hospital, 501 North Elam Avenue.

The series, presented by the League of Women Voters of the Piedmont Triad and the Moses Cone-Wesley Long Community Health Foundation, is intended to educate voters on the impacts of healthcare in local, state and federal elections.

So Public Policy Polling has new survey results on the N.C. Senate race. It shows State Sen. Kay Hagan of Greensboro with a 22 percent to 11 percent lead over Chapel Hill investment advisor Jim Neal

But an earlier poll by Survey USA had Neal ahead 21-19 percent.

So what gives.

I'll take geography for $1,000 Alex.

This is a theory, and just a theory, but based on the cross tabs from the two polls I think it's a fair one.

The PPP survey breaks down and balances voters by area code. The Survey USA Poll breaks the state into three regions: "Charlotte & West," "Raleigh & Greensboro," and "South & Coast."

Without speaking to those other regions, Raleigh and Greensboro are different media markets, different mixes of voters, different ... well, just different. If the mix of voters inside this region was skewed, it could have de-emphasized Hagan's advantage in the Triad. Conversely, PPP's breakdown could over-emphasize it. I don't know enough about the two polls to say.

Of course, the disagreement between the two polls illustrate why we actually do the ballot rather than rely on surveys.

The one things that's pretty definitive: roughly half of voters don't know enough to choose among the candidates. That's something the eventual nominee will have to try and remedy before the General Election.

Bruce Davis is on MySpace.

Davis, a Guilford County Commissioner, is going up against three-term N.C. Senator Katie Dorsett in the May 6 Democratic primary for the District 28 seat in the General Assembly.

These days, with those new-fangled social networking sites, "Friend" is no longer just a noun. With your MySpace account, you can add Davis to your list of friends - people with access your online profile.

But if you're reading this, chances are you know all about that stuff already.

And if you're a little more old school on the web, check out Davis' website.

"The majority of the voters and the young voters are looking for that type of interaction," Davis said about his online profile. He has plans to run a blog there, too.

Cross-posted from Capital Beat.

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

From this story in Sunday's paper:

Kay Hagan's chief rival in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate has accused the state senator of using her status as a powerful and politically connected committee chairwoman to intimidate his potential supporters.

"There is an inside machine that is working very hard to lock down the money in the state," said Jim Neal, a Chapel Hill investment banker and Greensboro native. On the stump and in phone calls to potential donors, Neal has told audiences that potential supporters were being "muscled" by political operatives friendly to Hagan.

"Someone will agree, 'Jim, I'll throw a fundraiser for you.' And then all of a sudden we won't hear from them for a while and the next thing you know, they're throwing a fundraiser for Kay (Hagan)," Neal said when asked to describe how this muscling worked.

Hagan said she had "not heard of this at all" and said she was shocked Neal was making the allegation as part of his stump speech.

Coming next Sunday: profiles of the two leading candidates in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary.

From a release sent by Democrat Jim Neal's U.S. Senate campaign:

Today I am endorsing Senator Barack Obama for President. I have been traveling to towns and cities across North Carolina for the past 6 months, listening to people in churches and schools, in their homes and at cafes. What these folks all have in common is that they want a political system that involves regular citizens, brings us together and works for the common good. They know America is a great country, and they know our political system is broken. They feel in their hearts we cannot turn to people who are part of the broken system to fix it. They want a leader who can bring our country together and move us forward. I have seen Barack Obama show the sincerity and optimism we need to bring us together and make every American proud to be an American.

The Democrats hoping to win their party's nomination in the 6th Congressional District debated at Guilford College Tuesday night. The winner of the primary will go on to face Republican Howard Coble this fall.

Democrats in the race include Teresa Sue Bratton, Johnny Carter and Jay Ovittore.

Along with a colleague from the Lexington Dispatch, I had the opportunity to ask some questions of the candidates. Some of the highlights from my notes follow.

On Iraq

Ovittore and Bratton they would only vote for further funding of the war in Iraq if it was tied to timetables for withdrawal. Carter said that he would not vote for further military funding but that the U.S. needed to pay for the continued rebuilding of the country.

On Health Care

Carter said that he would put everyone under a national healthcare system.

Ovittore also advocated for a single-payer system.

Bratton said that she did not favor an immediate shift to a single payer or national health care system. She said that we should create a national nonprofit health care company that would cover those without private health insurance. If the country gradually moved to the point of single payer system, Bratton said that would be fine but that she did not want to outlaw an entire industry over night.

On gay marriage

Bratton said she would vote to repeal the Defense of Marriage Act passed under then-President Clinton, which allows states not to recognize marriages made in other states if they involve same sex unions. Bratton said she supports civil unions for same-sex and opposite-sex couples.

Carter said that gay people were being denied rights that others have. He said he was in favor of equitable treatment of all people and didn't see the reason for DOMA being passed.

Ovittore said that he would not only vote to repeal DOMA but would push for a law that would force states to recognize marriages made legal elsewhere, including same-sex unions.

Closings

Ovittore said: "I am the only candidate up here who can beat Howard Coble Nov. 4."

Carter invited people to read his policy positions on his website: "They're coming basically from common sense."

Bratton said she could assemble a coalition that can be Coble in the fall: "I'm a centrist and I believe I can attract Democrats, Republicans and Independents who are worried about their future and the future of our children."

So Presidential contender Barack Obama was in town today. Live coverage went mostly to main site:

• * pictures.
• * Story updates.
• * Doug's thoughts.

I'm waiting on our tech boys to upload some video of a newser Obama did after his speech. Among the things he was asked: Who ever won that basketball game between him and Sen. Edwards back in February.

"I will confess. Edwards took it. Now he had his home floor. And he's got an interesting game. He doesn't have much range, but from about 14-to-16 feet, he does not miss. So when I took it outside, beyond the 3-point line, he couldn't go out there. But he hit like eight in a row from 14-to-16 and that mid-range jumper was tough. So I'm going to have to get a rematch."

Will post more links when I get them.

Thursday, Sen. Hillary Clinton will be in the state. We'll be staffing her Winston-Salem appearance.

If any of you are still interested, we have video from Sen. Barack Obama's appearance in Greensboro. The third video segment on the page is a group interview with Obama that helped flesh out this story.

I caught Sen. Hillary Clinton's appearance in Wake County today. She used it to highlight a $2.5 Billion per year workforce training program.

During her speech, she praised Gov. Mike Easley's efforts to back programs like Learn and Earn that let students get college credit and work experience in High School.

She didn't slag Obama, but did take a few shots at the presumptive Republican nominee, Sen. John McCain.

"It's time for a president who is ready on day on to be Commander-in-Chief of the economy," Clinton said. Then, referring to McCain's recent economic policy speech, she called his plan a do-nothing approach.

"It seems like if the phone were ringing, he'd just let it ring, and ring, and ring," Clinton said. "I think we've had enough of president who didn’t know enough about the economy."

The News & Record is mustering for coverage of her appearance in Winston-Salem this afternoon. Worth noting, Clinton was more than an hour late to her first campaign appearance this morning.

Hillary Clinton was in Winston-Salem Thursday evening, after stops outside of Raleigh and in Fayetteville. From the paper and website:

• Today's policy story.

• The color story for Winston.

• This live story - in bloggy format.

• Video.

• Photos.

If former President Bill Clinton is holding to his schedule, he's in Greensboro right now and will be in High Point at 9:30 a.m. Others will run down those events for you. I'm heading to the U.S. Senate debate tonight in New Bern.

As we reported earlier, the Obama campaign has set up a storefront in Greensboro, one of 13 across the state. Should you be wanting to drop by, it's at 500 W. Friendly Avenue. The local phone is (336) 332-0028.

You'll start seeing commercials for Obama this weekend. For preview, click here.