U.S. Senate Poll: why reporters pull their hair out
So Public Policy Polling has new survey results on the N.C. Senate race. It shows State Sen. Kay Hagan of Greensboro with a 22 percent to 11 percent lead over Chapel Hill investment advisor Jim Neal
But an earlier poll by Survey USA had Neal ahead 21-19 percent.
So what gives.
I'll take geography for $1,000 Alex.
This is a theory, and just a theory, but based on the cross tabs from the two polls I think it's a fair one.
The PPP survey breaks down and balances voters by area code. The Survey USA Poll breaks the state into three regions: "Charlotte & West," "Raleigh & Greensboro," and "South & Coast."
Without speaking to those other regions, Raleigh and Greensboro are different media markets, different mixes of voters, different ... well, just different. If the mix of voters inside this region was skewed, it could have de-emphasized Hagan's advantage in the Triad. Conversely, PPP's breakdown could over-emphasize it. I don't know enough about the two polls to say.
Of course, the disagreement between the two polls illustrate why we actually do the ballot rather than rely on surveys.
The one things that's pretty definitive: roughly half of voters don't know enough to choose among the candidates. That's something the eventual nominee will have to try and remedy before the General Election.