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There's a store at the corner of Hargett and Blount Streets near my office in Raleigh that's been under renovation for some time. This morning, it had gotten a political makeover in advance of the May 6 primary. These looked like lithographs or something, not pictures. At any rate, it was a cool effect, especially with the lime green border.

Shot with my camera phone:

(Click to enlarge.)

Responding to our call for multimedia, Melissa Westmoreland sends us both a blog post and video.

Westmoreland found herself at the final debate among the Republican candidates for governor last night - what is this, like 112 total? - but without her choice in the election on stage. From her blog entry on the event:

Now, common sense should tell you that with a race as close as this one, McCrory would not CHOOSE to miss the last debate, especially with his opponents attacking him every chance they get. No, you see, Pat McCrory has a JOB. He is mayor of Charlotte, and he has city council meetings to attend. Early on in this race, McCrory made it known that he would not be missing city council meetings, because when he does, the Democrats control the meetings. He stood by that promise last night.

[snip]

The debate opened with an actual question, but rather than answer it right off the bat, Fred Smith took the opportunity to address the crowd and scold Mayor McCrory for not attending. I have the spectacle on tape, and I'll be uploading it tomorrow so you can all see what it looks like when the pot calls the kettle black.
In all honesty, I don't entirely remember what Smith said because it was completely dwarfed by Bob Orr's comment. When it came time to answer the question, Orr again chose not to address the issue and instead told the crowd that McCrory "needs to decide whether he wants to be a mayor or run for governor."

Seriously?

So let me get this straight – for starters, you absolutely have to be independently wealthy to run for governor. That's what I'm going to take from that comment, because Orr obviously wants his gubernatorial candidates to be jobless.

Melissa is also posting some video on her own YouTube channel like this one:

So, what's stopping you? Send along your campaign pictures, video, audio and thoughts to mbinker@news-record.com and/or gwitt@news-record.com.

Gov. Mike Easley officially endorsed Sen. Hillary Clinton in her presidential campaign on Tuesday. Today, the campaign unveiled a new ad for Clinton featuring North Carolina's governor.

You know, going from "I hope I don't have to" get involved in the primary to putting your personal political weight behind a candidate is pretty big swing. At any rate, Easley should help Clinton capture those moderate, business-friendly Democrats that have done well by him through his four statewide elections.

Also, the Clinton campaign announced their candidate would be back in North Carolina both Friday and Saturday, so it seems like she's going to be making a real push to take the state.

Not that Slate really needs the traffic, but this video is worth your seven minutes:

Our friends at the Associated Press report that Sen. Obama's lead over Sen. Clinton is down to seven points. From the AP:

Obama maintains his edge over Clinton in North Carolina, a state he was widely expected to win coming out of the Pennsylvania primary. Obama leads Clinton 63-26 among voters under age 35, while Clinton has a 47-45 edge among voters over 50. He has the support of 87 percent of black voters, while Clinton leads among whites with 62 percent. By party registration, Obama led 48 percent to 43 percent among Democrats and 55-38 among independent or unaffiliated voters. Fifty-five percent said they were looking most for a candidate who "represents change and a new approach," while 36 percent said they wanted someone who "has the right experience." The poll was conducted as news broke that Gov. Mike Easley would endorse Clinton.

I was talking with a co-worker the other day who hails from Iowa. Early in this primary season she said that being in Iowa was great because during each presidential primary season, you usually get to meet the person that you'd vote for.

Usually by this time of year the candidates have been whittled down enough that it doesn't matter and nobody makes it to the Old North State.

Not in '08. North Carolina is a contested state. Whoa.

Our state reporter, Mark Binker, will have a piece tomorrow about Clinton and Obama stops in Raleigh tonight. I'm heading out this afternoon to follow Clinton's appearance at Guilford College.

And you can help us here with a bit of the coverage.

Have you had coffee with Clinton? Shot hoop with Obama? Watched Chelsea hug kids? Are you just waiting for McCain to make his appearance?

Send your stories here. We want to see and hear them on Decision 2008. Just read this post before you do, and we'll get 'em right up. From local races to state senate (and that presidential thing, too), give us your tales.

Cross-posted from Inside Scoop:

At the Hillary Clinton rally today we ran into a Guilford College senior wearing a body-sized triangular suit that had a photo of a slice of pizza.

"Loving pizza is the common denominator of human existence," Johanna Breed told Scoop. The statement might be the truest piece of almost-political rhetoric that Scoop has ever heard
(27 second mp3).

Breed said she was there to shoot for a spot as Hillary's running-mate. But after a while Breed showed her true colors. She supports Barack Obama in the presidential primary, and only happened to have the costume on hand.

"I'm actually an Obama supporter, but I just thought this was funny," she said. Though if Clinton approached her, the Guilford College art major might reconsider, Breed said (44 second mp3).

Clinton's press secretary hasn't gotten back to Scoop about the chances of a Clinton/Pepperoni ticket in 2008.

Here's a few clips from Hillary Clinton's rally this afternoon at Guilford College.

She gave a little heat to the current administration and promised to protect some jobs (1:04 minute mp3).

Clinton also said she wants to revise NAFTA and do something about goods from China (42 second mp3).

And she spoke to her plans to relieve gasoline costs and close the "Enron loophole." (1:52 minute mp3)

It wasn't 8 a.m. yet this morning before I got a phone call from someone complaining about my story on Sens. Clinton and Obama campaigning at the Jefferson-Jackson diner in Raleigh last night.

The criticism was over this line:

"...from the crowd, which appeared to heavily favor the Illinois senator and roared when he took the stage 70 minutes later. Audience members roared and came to their feet several times during his speech. Although Clinton got applause, it was not as robust."

The caller said that the audience was evenly split between Clinton and Obama supporters. That was simply not the case.

First off, Clinton got a smattering of "boos" during her speech and Gov. Mike Easley appeared to lose his place at one point when the crowd jeered over his endorsement of Clinton.

Secondly, Clinton got some nice ovation. You could feel - literally feel the vibrations - from the applause that Obama got before he said a word.

Also, eyeballing the crowd, multiple reporters remarked on how many more Obama signs were in the house than there were for Clinton.

And the crowd was simply louder for Obama than it was for Clinton.

But maybe I'm crazy. If so, I'm other scruffy media types are with me.

From Rob Christensen at the News & Observer: "But the sharp divisions were evident in the crowd, which leaned toward Obama. There were scattered boos from Obama backers when Clinton discussed her gas-tax plan. And there was almost certainly a first in 78-year-history of the dinner -- lusty boos for a sitting Democratic governor. Gov. Mike Easley, who had endorsed Clinton earlier in the week, was jeered when he was introduced, and had to speak over scattered boos."

From the Charlotte Observer Team: "When Obama walked to the stage after Clinton, the room exploded with energy."

At any rate, if I'm indulging in a delusion, it is a shared one.

So a few weeks ago in an interview Gov. Mike Easley kind of ripped on this whole idea of a gas tax holiday.

Two weeks later, he endorses Sen. Hillary Clinton in her bid for president.

Funny story: Clinton has made creating a federal gas tax holiday the centerpiece of her campaign since an appearance in Graham on Monday.

Of course, I'm pretty much a moron so it took me a while to put two-and-18.4-cents together. So it came as a bit of jog today when the Obama campaign sent out a new release citing that interview and questioning how it is that Easley could back Clinton when he disagrees with a policy that has been central to her campaign for the past six days.

The answer from Easley's press office:

“The governor enthusiastically supports the proposal in Washington because it taxes the windfall profits of big oil to replace the taxes on the people,” Easley spokesman Seth Effron said. “On the state level, there is not the ability to tax big oil, so North Carolina would have a deficit.”

More on this in tomorrow's paper.

Candidates for president and governor will be in Greensboro-High Point-Triad area Sunday and Monday. Some of the doings:

On Sunday:

• * Kal Pen (Kumar from the Harold and Kumar films) will be at Elon Universities McKinnon Hall in Elon at 12 p.m.

• * Former President Clinton is due in Reidsville at Reidsville High School at 9:15 p.m.

On Monday:

• * Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, a Republican campaigning for governor, will hold a rally at the Jamestown Public Library at 7 p.m. You'll remember, that's where McCrory started his campaign.

• * Lawyer Bill Graham flies into PTI Airport for a presser at 1:15 p.m.

• * Treasurer Richard Moore, a Democratic candidate for governor, will bring his campaign to Stamey's on Coliseum Boulevard. Major penalty points if he doesn't have the cobbler.

• * Sen. Hillary Clinton, campaigning for president, is scheduled for a Monday, 11:30 a.m. Get Out the Vote event at the Depot in High Point.

From today's paper: the race for the Democratic presidential nominations is affecting races lower down on both the Dem and GOP ballots.

Also: more hot air over the gas tax.

Meanwhile, early voting ended in Guilford County Saturday and Lorraine Ahearn ponders race and politics.

And in case you missed it, Obama and Clinton chatted up Dems in Raleigh on Friday night.

If the good folks at Zogby International can be trusted, Sen. Barack Obama maintains his lead in the Democratic presidential primary despite Sen. Hillary Clinton's last minute push, the Rev. Wright Controversy, etc... From the release:

After a good day of polling, Obama retains a lead in North Carolina - 48% to 39%, with 13% either unsure or favoring someone else.

[snip]

In North Carolina, Obama's lead comes from strength among voters age 18 to 54, while Clinton leads among the 70 and older.

Courtesy of reporter Joe Killian:

I was at the Hillary Clinton stop in High Point earlier today.

There were some incredibly enthusiastic supporters there -- including the owner of what I'm calling the Hillarymobile, a Toyota sedan with Arizona plates covered in tributes to Hillary:

Some advance man should be handed his walking papers for putting her at the train depot downtown, where trains rolled by a few times making it difficult to hear what she was saying. She was tough though, incorporating the trains into her speech (click to listen to streaming audio of the speech, with intro by Gov. Mike Easley and his son Michael) at several points and talking over them when she needed to.

Clinton even cracked wise about North Carolina barbecue...

Because I'd heard the basic stump speech a half-dozen times now and she did much of it on today's morning shows, I noticed something else that was the least bit different and strange...

Sen. John McCain gave a speech in Wake Forest this morning before heading to a fundraiser in Greensboro at New Breed CEO Louis DeJoy's house. That's where I hopped aboard this thing:

The presumptive Republican presidential nominee rolled in the Straight Talk Express on up to PITA, where he hopped a charter to Michigan.

Along the way, we scruffy media types got to toss him a few questions and snap some (in my case) bad photos:

While on board, the subject du jour was McCain's take on judicial nominations, which was the focus of his speech this morning.

I've got to write a story, now but you can click here to listen to McCain's speech at Wake Forest (The first person on this take is Sen. Richard Burr, doing the introductions. ) or here to read the prepared text.

And you can listen to the press gaggle on the bus by clicking here. The conversation ranged all over the place, but it concentrated on the nominations.

The Republican primary races for Guilford County commissioner may be closer than most people first thought.

Here's a stab at a possible reason:

Of the folks that I've talked to at a couple of precincts today, the majority chose to vote in the Democratic primary. That means that in the District 5 Republican primary, where incumbent Billy Yow faces former Pleasant Garden Mayor Rick Wallace and barely-there candidate Lisa Andrews, voters who could otherwise help tip a wider margin in that race are not selecting Republican ballots. Those voters are instead shooting for the presidential Democratic nominee.

This is important because the winner in the District 5 primary will likely be the winner overall, unless the loser seeks a runoff (which can be declared only after all ballots are counted). There are no Democratic candidates for District 5.

The same theory could go for the At Large county commissioner primary. Two winners in that field of five Republicans will face Democratic incumbents Paul Gibson and John Parks in November.

That's the pull of a presidential primary for you, which can take credit for another effect. I interviewed a woman in her 40s today who voted for her first time. At another precinct I spoke with 40-ish woman voting the second time ever.

Then again, the argument could be made that any newcomers to the election probably are only interested in the national political scene, not local politics.

Whaaa? Who wouldn't find this stuff interesting?

From the AP at 10:45 p.m.
2,104 of 2,817 precincts - 75 percent

x-Kay Hagan 646,949 - 61 percent
Jim Neal 196,328 - 18 percent
Marcus Williams 125,212 - 12 percent
Howard Staley 46,754 - 4 percent
Duskin Lassiter 46,398 - 4 percent

Click here for rough (no mic and lots of camera/notebook noise) audio of Kay Hagan speaking at the Old Guilford County Courthouse Tuesday night.

Greensboro Rep. Alma Adams backed Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue in her Democratic primary run for governor against State Treasurer Richard Moore. Moore ran a hard campaign, and came out with a bunch of attacks on Perdue, including some that suggested she was less than committed to civil rights.

Adams stopped to chat as she passed through the Old Guilford County Courthouse Tuesday on her way to Raleigh and Perdue's victory celebration. When asked what Moore should do now, Adams had this to say:

"He needs to go hide. For all the dirt that he did, he needs to go hide deep down under a rock. He ought to be ashamed."

Still chewing over the primary? You can listen to editorial writers Doug Clark and Allen Johnson, columnist Jeri Rowe and staff writer Mark Binker chew over Guilford County and national primary results by clicking right here.

The podcast starts with a couple voices from election night: State Sen. Kay Hagan and Sheriff BJ Barnes.

With the primary over, a general election candidate's thoughts turn toward filling the campaign coffers.

Case in point: former City Councilman Don Vaughan will hold a fundraiser at the home of Tony and Monique Copeland Thursday in Raleigh. Vaughan is the Democratic nominee for the seat vacated by Sen. Kay Hagan, as she pursues her U.S. Senate run.

Vaughan is running against Joe Wilson, a council candidate last year. A quick check of campaign finance filings shows:

• * Vaughan had $49,361.79 cash-on-hand in the middle of April, according to his first quarter report.
• * Joe Wilson does not have a finance report filed online, according to the SBOE site.

Web wise: Wilson is up and running, complete with blog. As of right now, Vaughan's Site is nothing more than a page-front but when I spoke to him a couple weeks ago he said it was in the process of getting spiffed up.

How did voters choose between candidates for governor like Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue and Treasurer Richard Moore? Did they comb through policy positions or read about their voting records?

Maybe some did. Others, just listened to ol' Sheriff Andy. From Lex Alexander who was out and about covering the gubernatorial primary yesterday:

Joseph L. Perkins Jr. voted for Bev Perdue for governor at Greensboro's First Lutheran Church.

"Andy Griffith felt she was right, and I don't think he'd recommend anyone who wasn't right," he said.

Griffith did a television commercial endorsing Perdue:

North Carolina Democratic Party Chairman Jerry Meek, who is a super delegate, endorsed Sen. Barack Obama today:

Chairman Meek said, “Over the past year, I’ve watched as Barack Obama has drawn countless new people to the political process. Although my position as State Chair has led me to remain neutral through the primary, I’ve quietly celebrated as Barack Obama offered new hope to millions of Americans who have lost faith in the American dream after years of disastrous Republican policies. Rarely does a public servant emerge with Barack Obama’s ability to unite our country and produce real change. With Barack Obama as our nominee, North Carolina can deliver its electoral votes to a Democrat and Democratic candidates up and down the ballot will benefit. Barack Obama offers the best chance to take back the White House, elect countless democrats down-ballot, and breathe new life into the Democratic Party.”

From our friends at the Associated Press:

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) _ Two Democratic superdelegates from North Carolina have endorsed presidential candidate Barack Obama.

State Democratic Party chief Jerry Meek and Cumberland County commissioner Jeanette Council both announced their support for the Illinois senator Wednesday.

Their votes now give Obama the support of eight superdelegates from North Carolina.

Hillary Rodham Clinton won the support of Rep. Heath Shuler for beating Obama in his district. She has the support of three North Carolina superdelegates, including Gov. Mike Easley. There are seven uncommitted superdelegates remaining in the state.

Meek also has the power to recommend four people to fill two positions as unpledged add-on delegates. Those delegates will be selected at the state convention in June.

Put this under the category of actually needing to know something about the candidate you are promoting.

The DSSC is all fuzzy with excitement that state Sen. Kay Hagan, a Democrat, is running to take on Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole this fall. So they sent out an e-mail to supports asking for funds to mount the campaign.

Nothing wrong with that.

But then there was this line:

"Unlike Dole, Hagan is a life-long resident of North Carolina. She raised her three kids in Raleigh and was active in the business and civic community there."

Well, no and no.

Hagan was born in North Carolina but her family moved out of state and she did the bulk of her growing up in Lakeland, Fla. She did return to the state for Law School.

And Hagan lives in Greensboro and her kids went to school in Greensboro and the senate district she represented is - say it with me - based in Greensboro.

To be fair, the rest of the e-mail seems to comport more with reality.

Full disclosure: The person who tipped me off here was a member of the Dole organization who is a little irked at Hagan's whole "I want to give Miss Liddy Dole a pair of ruby-red slippers..." line, designed to tag Dole as a carpet-bagger. Hagan, the person pointed out, spent some time away from the state as well.

There's been an air of inevitability about this one, but from our friends at the Associated Press:

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) _ Rep. Brad Miller endorsed Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama on Thursday, becoming the third North Carolina superdelegate to pledge support to the Illinois senator since his convincing win in the state's primary.

Miller met with Obama in Washington on Thursday afternoon and said afterward that Obama has shown that he can inspire people and bring fundamental change to the country.

"I see this year as an opportunity to really build a consensus that can last a generation," Miller said in an interview with The Associated Press.

Obama now has the support of nine superdelegates from North Carolina, including state Democratic Party chief Jerry Meek. Rival Hillary Rodham Clinton has the support of three state superdelegates, including Gov. Mike Easley.

Miller's been dropping hints about this for the past couple days.

In case you missed, former N.C. Senator John Edwards was on NPR's "All Things Considered" Friday. He didn't say who he would back in the presidential primary, adding that his neutral position put him in a better position to pursue his anti-poverty agenda.

David Broder is a revered figure among political journalists. His clear-eyed appraisal of politics is something to which most of us can only aspire.

Which is why it pains me to say that in a recent column Broder wrote one of the most singularly jerky and condescending things I've read in a while:

The two states that voted on Tuesday -- Indiana and North Carolina -- are so unimportant to Democratic chances of electing the next president that it is unlikely Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama would make more than a token appearance in either after one of them is nominated.

Unless John McCain butchers his campaign, he will be an odds-on favorite to continue the Republican winning streak in both states. Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry and a host of earlier candidates failed to make them competitive.

In a sensible nominating system, these states would never become important battlegrounds. Lots of people complain that Iowa and New Hampshire enjoy disproportionate influence because of their place at the start of the process. But both are closely contested in November -- not throwaways.

Indiana and North Carolina were doubly irrelevant this year, because the "issues" that Clinton and Obama discussed in the two weeks before those states' primaries were some of the phoniest of this entire election cycle.

Okay, I know what he's getting at. I understand that North Carolina isn't the most likely state to be a swing contest this fall. Although, and maybe it's just because I work here, I don't put it as far out of reach as Broder might. (Heck if Hagan is within spitting distance or of better of Dole can McCain fans really be all that comfy here?

But to say the votes of 9 million people are "unimportant" and "irrelevant" just seems hugely arrogant. Isn't it a good thing that voters who ordinarily don't have much of a say in nominating process had a chance to weigh in - regardless of whether they were "notably lacking in the kind of political prestige?" Might one reason that some state get into such voting ruts be because they're written off as wastes of time - or am I just touched in the head?

All I can say for sure is that the people I saw at Clinton and Obama rallies and meeting the candidates in smaller venues didn't feel the experience was "unimportant."

(Both Clinton and Obama, by the way, said they'd take a stab at winning North Carolina in November if they become the nominee.)

Before last week's election, there was a good deal of speculation about what the drop-off would be. How many more people who would vote in the presidential contest versus other races lower on the ballot, particularly in the Democratic primary?

After looking at some data from the State Board of Elections and the Guilford County BOE it's fair to say that there was some serious drop-off, although I found the ballot spots where it happened a bit surprising.

At both the county and state level, the presidential contest definitely was the draw. But at both the state and county levels, the race for governor was the second-biggest draw on the Democratic ballot. That was followed by the U.S. Senate race. Statewide, the drop-off from President to governor was 5 percent, versus U.S. Senate 15.5 percent.

In Guilford County, nearly 4,000 fewer people voted for U.S. Senate versus for Governor. That's despite the leading candidates in the senate race (Greensboro state Sen. Kay Hagan and Greensboro-native Jim Neal) having ties to Guilford County and the race appearing on the ballot ahead of the race for governor.

This bum-fuzzles me. I would think that the choice of who Democrats want to take on Sen. Dole would be pretty darned important to them. I'm not sure how to interpret this, although I'm betting if I talked to Dole's folks they'd say it's a sign that some Democrats are happy with the incumbent.

The only alternative I have at my fingertips involves advertising: Richard Moore and Bev Perdue were on the air a lot. Hagan was the only one of the U.S. Senate candidates on television and in nowhere near the rotation that Bev Perdue and Richard Moore were.

Among the partisan statewide races, the biggest dropoff on the Democratic side was between President and Labor Commissioner. Statewide, 376,425 - or 24 percent - fewer people voted for the state official responsible for inspecting elevators and amusement rides and enforcing workplace safety rules. Phhhhppttt...who needs to keep nails out of their skulls anyway.

In Guilford County, a lot of people went to considerable trouble to under-vote the down ballot races. You can tell because a total of 127,589 people voted in the Republican and Democratic presidential races. Then 122,000-plus voted in all the sales tax and bond referenda.

But only a total of 105,345 Democrats and Republicans voted for Lt. Governor, the #2 elected official in the state.

To roughly extrapolate, that means about 17,000 punched a button for president, and then leafed through several pages, leaving races like Lt. Gov. blank, before getting to the bonds.

What does this all mean? Several things, I think, some obvious:

• * Not all races caught the voting public's imagination equally.
• * All politics is local and the referenda are about as local as it gets.
• * Folks probably aren't sure what the people who hold the council of state offices do, much less the differences between the candidates.
• * There's probably an argument in here for eliminating some council of state offices, if one wanted to have it.

Your thoughts welcome at the comment link below.

Cross-posted from Inside Scoop

We caught up with Guilford County commissioners this week to see what they think now that the dust has settled on the May 6 votes for $671 million in bonds and the quarter-cent sales tax.

Guilford voters approved all the bonds except for the $20.2 million for parks. And they refused the sales tax.

But few commissioners managed to hold closely to what the voters wanted in their districts.

Below is the list of what commissioners said they wanted before the election, which excludes at-large commissioners John Parks and Paul Gibson:

District 1, Bruce Davis: No to the $412 million school bond and jail bond. Yes to other bonds. Undecided on sales tax.

District 2, Steve Arnold: Yes on Eastern Guilford. No to the other bonds and sales tax.

District 3, Linda Shaw: Yes to bonds and sales tax.

District 4, Kirk Perkins: Yes on bonds and the sales tax.

District 5, Billy Yow: Yes on the jail bond and sales tax. No for the other bonds.

District 6, Kay Cashion: Yes on bonds and the sales tax.

District 7, Mike Winstead: Refused to give his position on the bonds or sales tax.

District 8, Melvin “Skip” Alston: Yes to Eastern Guilford. No to the other bonds and sales tax.

District 9, Carolyn Coleman: Did not comment.

We talked to Katy Harriger, chairwoman of the political science department at Wake Forest University on her take as to why the bonds passed in Guilford County on May 6.

And all the bonds passed, except for a $20.2 million parks bond, the runt of the bond litter.

“Well, parks are nice, but maybe they aren’t as important as jails and schools and the hierarchy of what’s perceived as being important,” Harriger said on what motivated voters.

Issues that lead to passing bonds are different than the issues on which people pick a candidate, she said. Often, bonds receive low voter turnout because they are not as high-profile as other choices in an election.

But the primary hit North Carolina this year with big numbers.

And the Democratic presidential primary may have helped the bonds pass as liberal-leaning voters headed to polls.

"Generally, anti-bond organizations tend to be anti-tax, and they tend do to be associated with Republicans," Harriger said.

Debatables had a few interesting comments today about the June 24 runoff for the Democratic candidate in the commissioner of labor.

Also, some folks asked how to find some more information on the candidates. Here's links to their web pages.

John C. Brooks

Mary Fant Donnan

I've been pondering the U.S. Senate race between state Sen. Kay Hagan and Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole.

This pondering has been fueled by a few polls, including:

• * A Rasmussen poll put Hagan up 48 percent to Dole's 47 percent. "Any incumbent who polls below 50% early in the campaign cycle is considered potentially vulnerable. Dole is far from the only Republican incumbent in that position this year."

• * Public Policy Polling puts Dole up over Hagan, 48-43. "Hagan is winning big among voters whose top issues are the economy (51-39) and the war (57-36.) Those are the biggest issues for voters in the state, but Dole leads by even larger margins on wedge issues like immigration (89-8) and moral and family values (82-10)."

So then news came that Dole is changing up her campaign staff and this caused some folks to speculate it might have something to do with the polls.

Frankly, this development doesn't get me too charged up. 'Tis the season to pick up spare players from campaigns that didn't make the cut. Dole was picking up, not cutting talent. And Mark Stephens is still on board as a strategist.

Outside of that specific instance, folks like Cone have been wondering why this hasn't been universally embraced as a hot race.

While the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza puts the race in his list of 10 to watch, the McClatchy Washington staff is less impressed.

I have to admit to being conflicted about this race. I have reporter friends who are convinced Hagan is walking into a loosing battle. And when I suggest that's maybe not the case, the looks coming my way suggest I'm a homer in the same way Cubs fans are convinced "this is the year" to win the series - every year.

So how to break down this race?

The starting point is we have a well-known incumbent with not unreasonable favorables running in an environment that she herself has called dangerous.

There are a few arguments for thinking Hagan's really out to the fast start that the polls suggest:

• * The primary wrestling match with Jim Neal got her name out there without doing a lot of damage. Right now, name recognition is the commodity that Hagan needs more than anything else and the primary helped her there.

• * Hagan has some level of backing from the national Democratic Party machine. That backing was in evidence in the primary. If it sticks with her and is deep enough (read: dumps in enough money and talent) this will certainly help.

• * President Bush's job approval is in the can, the war in Iraq is deeply unpopular, the economy has not been doing well and Dole is seen as a close ally of the president. Expect Hagan to do all she can to tie remind voters of the connections between the two.

• * Hagan is part of the Basnight fraternity. Senate President Pro Temp has groomed a cadre of statewide candidates running, including Hagan. Basnight might be a bit distracted this year keeping his majority in the state Senate, but his backing is meaningful.

• * Hagan doesn't have an unreasonable political pedigree and resume to run on. She's known as an effective state senator who has been in elected office for nearly a decade and whose family - former Florida Sen. Lawton Chiles - has been in big-time politics as well.

But before folks start getting too fuzzy with excitement about how competitive this race may or may not be, the other side of the equation needs a look. In that column:

• * Dole is an incumbent and that's not anything to be scoffed at. I've talked with some political observers who don't think Dole has maximized her incumbency as much as she could have in terms of cutting ribbons, announcing projects, being visible, etc... My take is she's done enough, and she's been paying attention to smaller media markets in rural areas.

• * Dole has got bucks - $3.2 million on hand through the first quarter without breaking a sweat or having a primary to speak of. Hagan is in full-on fundraising mode and her primary victory will help bring in money. But she's starting from a disadvantage.

• * Dole has been building her cred on a key campaign issue for a few months. She's been talking immigration, a potential wedge issue. Although her talks have been more policy than rhetoric, it's clear she plans to campaign on it.

• * Dole has yet to let slip the dogs of war. Her campaign machine may have started its engine, but it's just pulling out of the driveway and getting ready to throw into traffic. I'll be a lot more impressed with the polls once Dole starts hitting Hagan.

• * It's the summer. North Carolina is slooooowly letting go its breath after the primary. Folks are getting ready to head out on vacation, pols are turning their attention to the legislative session and heck, the major networks have their season-ending episodes on the television-box. Yes it's a political year, but attention on campaigns ebbs and flows. If you're not running for a job that involves getting new digs at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, now is an ebb time. Attention will come back in August when the bulk of children get back in school. I'll be looking at those August and September polls for more reliable indicators.

Beyond that, there are several x-factors that have yet to play themselves out in advance of the fall election. If Obama remains the nominee, does this help Hagan? Will the gay marriage ruling in California mobilize conservatives? What will be happening in Iraq? Will the economy take a stab at recovery?

So let's get down to it: Is North Carolina's a competitive Senate election or not? Let me put it this way: Hagan is a smart, operating in an environment that Democrats should be able to exploit and both big and small liberal money will salivate at the chance to take a big swing at Dole.

You'd be foolish at this point to write either side off, so yes, ladies and gents; we have a race on our hands.

From our friends at the Associated Press:

CARY, N.C. (AP) _ North Carolina's two major-party candidates for U.S. Senate have agreed to meet in their first forum of the general election race.

The campaigns for Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole and Democratic challenger Kay Hagan confirmed Thursday they will attend the North Carolina Bar Association forum on June 21 in Atlantic Beach.

Hagan and Dole both rolled to victory in their respective primary elections two weeks ago.

Bar association spokesman Russell Rawlings said questions will be asked by a media panel.

From the Washington, D.C.-based Politico site:

But Democratic strategists are now taking a serious look at pouring resources into the Tarheel State in light of state Sen. Kay Hagan’s decisive victory in the Democratic primary and Dole’s weaker-than-expected showing in a series of statewide polls.

The polls, released within the past several weeks, suggest that Dole begins the race with significant vulnerabilities. In a newly released poll conducted by Public Policy Polling of Raleigh, N.C., Dole led Hagan by only 5 points, 48 percent to 43 percent.

The automated poll of 616 likely voters, conducted May 8-9, has a margin of error of 4 percentage points. Three other automated polls released this month show a highly competitive race, with Dole polling below the 50 percent mark in all of them.

Click here to read the whole thing.

State Sen. Kay Hagan, a Greensboro, is running to unseat Republican U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole, who has made immigration a big part of her campaign.

Today, Hagan did a round-table program with sheriffs in Raleigh about the 287(g) program, which gives local agencies the ability to ask prisoners if they're legal and start deportation proceedings.

For a story I wrote a few months ago, Hagan said:

Hagan said the federal government needed to ramp up its enforcement, both at the borders and ports of entry and in communities. She said the program allowing local sheriff s to enforce immigration laws - a program favored by Dole - should be replaced by more federal enforcement. And she said the needs of businesses in North Carolina that use seasonal workers need to be taken into account in whatever program is pursued.

Hagan backed off that skepticism a bit today, saying that 287(g) was fine, but it should be paid for by the federal government. Here's a video of her answer:

The new television ad for U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole's re-election campaign features Guilford County sheriff BJ Barnes. See if you can spot him:

Speaking of immigration, click here for my story on state Sen. Kay Hagan's 287(g) newser Tuesday.

More from our friends at the Associated Press:

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) _ Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole is launching her first campaign ad of the year with a 60-second spot that touts her work on illegal immigration.

The ad set to begin airing Wednesday includes clips from a number of sheriffs who praise the first-term senator for helping link them to federal immigration tools.

The advertisement comes one day after rival Kay Hagan met with sheriffs to discuss immigration.

Dole's campaign said it has spent about half a million dollars to air the spot statewide for about two weeks. She has banked some $3.2 million for her re-election bid.

Hagan ran a couple of ads before her primary victory at the beginning of May. Hagan reported having just $317,000 cash on hand in mid-April.