News-Record.com

I've been pondering the U.S. Senate race between state Sen. Kay Hagan and Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole.

This pondering has been fueled by a few polls, including:

• * A Rasmussen poll put Hagan up 48 percent to Dole's 47 percent. "Any incumbent who polls below 50% early in the campaign cycle is considered potentially vulnerable. Dole is far from the only Republican incumbent in that position this year."

• * Public Policy Polling puts Dole up over Hagan, 48-43. "Hagan is winning big among voters whose top issues are the economy (51-39) and the war (57-36.) Those are the biggest issues for voters in the state, but Dole leads by even larger margins on wedge issues like immigration (89-8) and moral and family values (82-10)."

So then news came that Dole is changing up her campaign staff and this caused some folks to speculate it might have something to do with the polls.

Frankly, this development doesn't get me too charged up. 'Tis the season to pick up spare players from campaigns that didn't make the cut. Dole was picking up, not cutting talent. And Mark Stephens is still on board as a strategist.

Outside of that specific instance, folks like Cone have been wondering why this hasn't been universally embraced as a hot race.

While the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza puts the race in his list of 10 to watch, the McClatchy Washington staff is less impressed.

I have to admit to being conflicted about this race. I have reporter friends who are convinced Hagan is walking into a loosing battle. And when I suggest that's maybe not the case, the looks coming my way suggest I'm a homer in the same way Cubs fans are convinced "this is the year" to win the series - every year.

So how to break down this race?

The starting point is we have a well-known incumbent with not unreasonable favorables running in an environment that she herself has called dangerous.

There are a few arguments for thinking Hagan's really out to the fast start that the polls suggest:

• * The primary wrestling match with Jim Neal got her name out there without doing a lot of damage. Right now, name recognition is the commodity that Hagan needs more than anything else and the primary helped her there.

• * Hagan has some level of backing from the national Democratic Party machine. That backing was in evidence in the primary. If it sticks with her and is deep enough (read: dumps in enough money and talent) this will certainly help.

• * President Bush's job approval is in the can, the war in Iraq is deeply unpopular, the economy has not been doing well and Dole is seen as a close ally of the president. Expect Hagan to do all she can to tie remind voters of the connections between the two.

• * Hagan is part of the Basnight fraternity. Senate President Pro Temp has groomed a cadre of statewide candidates running, including Hagan. Basnight might be a bit distracted this year keeping his majority in the state Senate, but his backing is meaningful.

• * Hagan doesn't have an unreasonable political pedigree and resume to run on. She's known as an effective state senator who has been in elected office for nearly a decade and whose family - former Florida Sen. Lawton Chiles - has been in big-time politics as well.

But before folks start getting too fuzzy with excitement about how competitive this race may or may not be, the other side of the equation needs a look. In that column:

• * Dole is an incumbent and that's not anything to be scoffed at. I've talked with some political observers who don't think Dole has maximized her incumbency as much as she could have in terms of cutting ribbons, announcing projects, being visible, etc... My take is she's done enough, and she's been paying attention to smaller media markets in rural areas.

• * Dole has got bucks - $3.2 million on hand through the first quarter without breaking a sweat or having a primary to speak of. Hagan is in full-on fundraising mode and her primary victory will help bring in money. But she's starting from a disadvantage.

• * Dole has been building her cred on a key campaign issue for a few months. She's been talking immigration, a potential wedge issue. Although her talks have been more policy than rhetoric, it's clear she plans to campaign on it.

• * Dole has yet to let slip the dogs of war. Her campaign machine may have started its engine, but it's just pulling out of the driveway and getting ready to throw into traffic. I'll be a lot more impressed with the polls once Dole starts hitting Hagan.

• * It's the summer. North Carolina is slooooowly letting go its breath after the primary. Folks are getting ready to head out on vacation, pols are turning their attention to the legislative session and heck, the major networks have their season-ending episodes on the television-box. Yes it's a political year, but attention on campaigns ebbs and flows. If you're not running for a job that involves getting new digs at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, now is an ebb time. Attention will come back in August when the bulk of children get back in school. I'll be looking at those August and September polls for more reliable indicators.

Beyond that, there are several x-factors that have yet to play themselves out in advance of the fall election. If Obama remains the nominee, does this help Hagan? Will the gay marriage ruling in California mobilize conservatives? What will be happening in Iraq? Will the economy take a stab at recovery?

So let's get down to it: Is North Carolina's a competitive Senate election or not? Let me put it this way: Hagan is a smart, operating in an environment that Democrats should be able to exploit and both big and small liberal money will salivate at the chance to take a big swing at Dole.

You'd be foolish at this point to write either side off, so yes, ladies and gents; we have a race on our hands.