Dole, Hagan, polls and pundits
With one month to go before Election Day, state Sen. Kay Hagan, a Greensboro Democrat, has to be feeling good about her chances to unseat Republican Elizabeth Dole. Consider:
- * PPP, a Democratic-friendly polling firm shows her with a lead. (PDF)
- * Rasmussen, a Republican-friendly firm, also shows her with a lead and editorializes: "it’s never comfortable for an incumbent to be trailing this late in the campaign season. Adding to Dole’s problems is the fact that John McCain finds himself in a very tight race with Barack Obama for North Carolina’s Electoral College votes. That means Dole can’t count on the lift from the top of the ticket usually enjoyed by the state’s GOP candidates."
- * Politico waded into the race recently, writing a piece that is the equivalent of intellectual catnip for Democrats: "Top Republicans say they have no hope for Dole in North Carolina. “There’s no point in even counting the votes,” said a top McCain official."
So should we stick a fork in this thing?
No.
Just as it would have been dumb to write this race off in Dole's favor back in May, it'd be silly for Hagan to start doing victory laps now.
If for no other reason, Hagan has gotten to where she is by running a pedal to the metal campaign. Letting up would just give Dole and opening.
Also, we all learned from the primaries this year that polling can be thrown off. And while the 30 day window before the election is closing fast, there's still time for this thing to move once again.
So, if it's all the same to y'all, I really think we ought to count the votes on Election Day.
