News-Record.com

From today's print edition of Inside Scoop:

John Davis has been breaking down state legislative races for NC FREE, a nonprofit that ranks politicians based on how “business-friendly” they are, for more than 20 years. And for most of that time, his message for Republicans in the N.C. Senate race has been gloomy.

Until this year, he said.

“Something very unique is going on this year with the passion of the American public in terms of wanting to make changes,” Davis said. “If an incumbent gives voters a reason to vote them out, the voters are going to jump all over that.”

Democrats have a 31-19 advantage in the Senate. For Republicans to take control, they would need to win seven seats held by Democrats.

Davis identifies eight seats he says could be vulnerable because of changing demographics or missteps by the incumbent. The closest one to Guilford County is in District 24, based in Alamance County, where first-term Democrat Tony Foriest faces Republican Rick Gunn. A Republican had held the seat for the decade before Foriest won in 2006.

Sen. Phil Berger, a Rockingham County Republican and his party’s leader in the Senate, said the eight races Davis has identified are ones where the party sees opportunity as well.

“We’ve been saying all along that the Democrats will be playing defense this time,” Berger said.

Berger’s opposite number on the Democratic side, Fayetteville Sen. Tony Rand, derides Davis’ analysis.

“You mean the analysis by the long arm of the Republican Party? He has no basis for any of that,” Rand said. “John’s simply wrong.”

By the way, in Guilford County, Davis rates the seat held by U.S. Senate candidate Kay Hagan as one Democrats are likely to keep. There, former City Council member Don Vaughan, a Democrat, is running against Republican Joe Wilson.

State senate candidate Don Vaughan has already done one pretty big fundraiser this year.

He'll do a second on July 23 in Greensboro, featuring Jim Hunt:

With the primary over, a general election candidate's thoughts turn toward filling the campaign coffers.

Case in point: former City Councilman Don Vaughan will hold a fundraiser at the home of Tony and Monique Copeland Thursday in Raleigh. Vaughan is the Democratic nominee for the seat vacated by Sen. Kay Hagan, as she pursues her U.S. Senate run.

Vaughan is running against Joe Wilson, a council candidate last year. A quick check of campaign finance filings shows:

• * Vaughan had $49,361.79 cash-on-hand in the middle of April, according to his first quarter report.
• * Joe Wilson does not have a finance report filed online, according to the SBOE site.

Web wise: Wilson is up and running, complete with blog. As of right now, Vaughan's Site is nothing more than a page-front but when I spoke to him a couple weeks ago he said it was in the process of getting spiffed up.

Rep. Laura Wiley and her challenger in the Republican primary interviewed with the News & Record's editorial board today.

As it was in this story, funding for the furniture market was an issue during the interview.

Click here to listen to the exchange.

Ragsdale's contention during the interview was that Wiley had voted against state budgets that contained funding for the furniture market.

Wiley voted against budgets in 2005 and 2007 that had market funding.

In 2006, she voted for the budget. That budget, she said, included a major increase in funds for the market to sell itself to potential exhibitors and buyers. It was also a budget when Democratic House leaders - specifically Jim Black - leaned on Wiley and others to vote for the budget.

Out of fairness, the flip-side of the issue Ragsdale is pressing Wiley on is this: If voting against a budget that contains market money means you're not fully for the market, does voting FOR a budget mean you're FOR everything in that budget. For example, if voting against the 2007 budget means you're against the market, does voting for it (or in Ragsdale's case, say you'd vote for it) mean you embrace all its provisions, such as the one that cut the percentage of lottery funding dedicated to education?

From today's paper: a look at the three Democrats who want to take on Republican Rep. Howard Coble in the 6th Congressional District.

Previously:

• The Democratic primary in the 28th state Senate District.
• The Republican Primary in the 61st state House District.

Editorial writer Doug Clark has already summarized the editorial board interview with Sen. Katie Dorsett and County Commissioner Bruce Davis. They are both running for the seat now held by Dorsett in the Democratic primary.

I've filed a news story, largely based on that interview, but am not sure when it's going to run. (For those who are curious: election profile stories tend to get bumped around from run-date-to-run-date because they're usually not pegged to a specific event other than the election, which is still a month away.) So I thought I'd share some audio from that interview for those who are really interested in the race and maybe trying to make some decisions on who to support.

This first bit is 13 minutes and 30 seconds long and is the heart of the exchange may end up being central election. In it, Davis says that he's not running against Dorsett but because he's a visionary. He then goes on to slam her record. Dorsett uses her time at the end of the segment to explain why her experience and seniority matters. Click here to listen.

Next up is a clip on education. Davis favors state-funded vouchers for students to attend private schools and lifting the cap on charter schools. Dorsett does not. Click here to listen.

The mental health system and its many failures has been on a lot of front pages as of late. Both candidates were asked what they'd do to fix it. Dorsett differed to a legislative committee working to fix the problem. Davis advocates a return to a system that looks something like the pre-reform model with counties having more of a hand in treatment. Click here to listen.

In this last audio segment, both Dorsett and Davis were asked about ethics reform and the Wright case. Dorsett said some ethics reforms went too far but that the House was correct to expel Wright. Davis said that legislators should be held to the highest ethical standards but said the House acted too quickly. Click here to listen.

Bruce Davis is on MySpace.

Davis, a Guilford County Commissioner, is going up against three-term N.C. Senator Katie Dorsett in the May 6 Democratic primary for the District 28 seat in the General Assembly.

These days, with those new-fangled social networking sites, "Friend" is no longer just a noun. With your MySpace account, you can add Davis to your list of friends - people with access your online profile.

But if you're reading this, chances are you know all about that stuff already.

And if you're a little more old school on the web, check out Davis' website.

"The majority of the voters and the young voters are looking for that type of interaction," Davis said about his online profile. He has plans to run a blog there, too.

Mental health and mental health reform are the topics of the next session
in the series Civics 104, "Your Health, Your Money, Your Vote."

The Tuesday panel will feature Dr. Masoud Hejazi, a Greensboro psychiatrist certified in child, adolescent and adult psychiatry and addiction medicine, and Robin Huffman, director of the North Carolina Psychiatric Association.

The session is open to the public and will start at 7:30 p.m. Tuesday in the education building at Wesley Long Community Hospital, 501 North Elam Avenue.

The series, presented by the League of Women Voters of the Piedmont Triad and the Moses Cone-Wesley Long Community Health Foundation, is intended to educate voters on the impacts of healthcare in local, state and federal elections.

Two races on this year's Guilford County ballot should look familiar.

Olga Morgan Wright, a Republican, will take on Rep. Alma Adams, a Democrat. There are no other contenders. Wright and Adams have gone at it for the past two campaigns. Adams has won the two prior run-ins.

And Republican Jim Rumley will try for the third time to unseat Democratic Rep. Maggie Jeffus. (Rumley ran in 2000 against Adams and lost.)

With the close of the filing period, some candidates for office find they have themselves a free ride.

Republican Rep. John Blust has no Democratic or Republican challengers filed against him.

Likewise, Democratic Reps. Earl Jones and Pricey Harrison have no opponents signed up.

Although write-in campaigns are conceivable, they rarely work. That gives these three an almost clear path to re-election.

Update: Unless there's some piece of data out there right now from this morning that I don't have, it also looks like Sen. Phil Berger gets a free ride to victory. The Rockingham County Republican represents parts of Guilford County.

Likewise, Sen. Stan Bingham, a Davidson Republican who represents parts of High Point, also appears to have a clear path to re-election.

There's an interesting primary shaping up in House District 61, the seat now held by Republican Laura Wiley, of High Point, who is serving her second term.

George Ragsdale, 31, of Jamestown, has filed as a Republican to run against her. Ragsdale has never run for office before but you might recognize his name.

He's part of the Ragsdale political family from Jamestown. His father was a long-time mayor and council member and his grandfather served as a county commissioner. Various other relatives have also held political office.

So he gets points right off for having a brand-name, at least in southwestern Guilford County.

He's a banker and runs the Wrennovation Companies - the spelling is a play on his middle name - that re-develops properties, both jobs that put him out in the community a lot.

Ragsdale says he has no particular ax to grind with Wiley but says he thinks he can do more for the county.

"I have no quarrel with Laura Wiley at all," Ragsdale said, "I appreciate and respect the work she has done. But I know I can do more."

We talked a little about issues. Improving education is on his list, as is limiting the role of government in areas where he thinks it ought not to be.

"I'm also the greenest Republican you've ever seen," he said. We spent a little time talking about his desire to boost the use of alternative fuels by having state fleets like police cars, school buses and ferries use E85 ethanol and biodiesel.

This doesn't seem to be a challenge from Wiley's right. Wiley has been able to get some bills through the Democratically-held General Assembly, and has even voted in favor of a budget or two - because it had money for the High Point Furniture Market - something that can get a legislator in trouble with GOP hard-liners. But Ragsdale seems to be equally a pragmatist - the whole more earth-friendly fuel line is hardly a page out of the Art Pope playbook.

No Democrat has filed to run in this district and voter registration numbers here indicate that the eventual Republican nominee will have a strong advantage.

This is the second Guilford County race where an incumbent has picked up a challenger who might just be able to have some success. In Senate District 28, incumbent Katie Dorsett faces a challenge from county commissioner Bruce Davis.

Margaret Arbuckle, who was mentioned as a possible contender for the state senate seat Kay Hagan is vacating, says she won't pursue it. Here's the statement she e-mailed this morning:

It has been very flattering and humbling for so many people from across the community and the state to urge me to run for the North Carolina Senate seat vacated by Kay Hagan as she is running for the U.S. Senate.

My name was first mentioned upon Mrs. Hagan’s announcement and since that time I have given much thought to whether it was the time in my personal and professional life to step forward as a candidate. It has been a very difficult decision but I have decided not to run at this time.

The work I am doing with Guilford Education Alliance to build community support for a stronger education system is not completed. It is critical that we work together to meet the needs of all of our students to be productive in our 21st Century economy. We must work together as parents and students, civic organizations, business leaders and elected officials to make opportunity for everyone. I am committed to focusing my energy on this goal at this time.

I look forward to this important work in our county community and invite others to join with us in making education the top priority of all citizens!

So far, Don Vaughan has the Democratic primary field all to himself.

Denise Turner, who worked for Congressman Brad Miller and is currently with the Greensboro Partnership took at look at running in Senate District 28, which already features a Democratic Primary between incumbent Katie Dorsett and Bruce Davis.

She created a campaign committee in December.

But she has backed off a run.

"I was looking at the seat when there was a good deal of speculation about Sen. Dorsett not seeking re-election," Turner said. When Dorsett announced a run, Turner said she cancelled her plans.

"I decided I would wait for my time," she said.

Turner formed the campaign committee to account for a poll she conducted in mid-Decmeber comparing her to other potential challengers for Dorsett's seat, including Rep. Alma Adams and Davis. Adams has said she will seek re-election to her House seat.

County Republican Party Chairman Bill Wright sent word this morning that Olga Morgan Wright (no relation that I know of) will run for the House District 58 seat. Olga ran against Adams the 2004 and 2006 elections and things tend to get a little testy between the two. Adams is a Democrat and Morgan Wright is a Republican, so this is a general election showdown in a Democratic-leaning district.

From Bill Wright:

As Guilford County Republican Party Chairman, I am excited to announce that Olga Morgan Wright will file to run for the N.C. House District 58 seat currently held by Alma Adams. Olga continues to be concerned by the current inadequate representation that refuses to address the important issues facing this unique District. Much of east Greensboro and Guilford County lacks the vital economic development necessary to bring decent paying jobs and opportunities to this historic area. Owners are unwilling to relocate or launch a new business in an area with low performing schools, unacceptable dropout rates and a rising gang problem. We must not only understand the problems that face our small business owners with an unacceptable tax burden and increasing government regulations but also the need for an educated and viable workforce. Students must be offered functional, vocational training opportunities and not just a college based curriculum. We must offer these young people a reason to stay in school and become a productive, contributing member of society. It's time for action and in Olga, we have a lifelong resident of District 58 who is tired of the talk, tired of the ineffective blue ribbon commissions, and tired of the excuses. Olga is deeply concerned that the current representation has refused to support legislation that would protect District 58 property owners from losing their property through the action of eminent domain. We must have a Constitutional Amendment to ensure that government cannot take private property for private development purposes. This infringement on our constitutional rights as property owners directly affects minority neighborhoods and inner city areas. Olga believes we must send a clear message to local governments that as private citizens, we will fight to protect those rights guaranteed under our Constitution. The citizens of District 58 deserve to have their voices heard in Raleigh, deserve to have a representative that lives every day understanding the struggles of families, understanding the pressures our children face and understanding the struggle to make ends meet. It's time for a change, it's time for the fresh, straight talking representation that Olga Morgan Wright will bring to the citizens of District 58.

I just sent the following to our online folks:

County Commissioner Bruce Davis(PDF) says he will run for the State Senate seat currently held by Sen. Katie Dorsett. Both Davis and Dorsett are Democrats.

“I have the utmost respect for Katie Dorsett, I have much respect for the work that she’s done,” Davis says. “It’s more about me trying to bring about some change. New leadership is good.”
The 28th Senate District runs from southern Greensboro through Pleasant Garden and southern Guilford County into the majority of High Point.

Davis was first appointed to his county commissioner seat in 2002, following the death of Commissioner Donnie Dunovant. That was the same year Dorsett, a former State Secretary of Administration, won her senate seat.

There's a certain regional tension here. Dorsett lives in Greensboro. Davis is from High Point. And Davis made a point of saying that only one of the 10 legislators (four senators, six representatives) who represent High Point live in the city. (The other person is Larua Wiley. Ashville, Wilmington and other smaller cities can claim more representation, as can Fayetteville and Cary, which are the next largest cities on the list.

"At this point here, I think that someone from this particular area should be running for that seat," Davis said.

Davis said key issues for his campaign will include reducing homelessness, improving education and aid for the High Point Furniture Market.

Worth noting: Dorsett is the Majority Whip for the Senate Democrats, a position that makes her responsible for vote counting and makes her part of the chambers top leaders.

This is basically a Democratic primary scuffle. Voter registration is very skewed in the district, making it tough for a Republican to compete there.

From Capital Beat:

Just talked to former City Council member Don Vaughan. He told me that he has filed paperwork to run for Sen. Kay Hagan's seat in 2008. Hagan is running for the U.S. Senate.

More online here and a previous story on potential replacements for Hagan here.