News-Record.com

Linked here almost solely because of its opening line, this piece from the Wall Street Journal Web site:

The prize for "Twilight Zone" race of 2008 – the one that defies all logic unless you forget everything you thought you knew before – may go to the Senate contest in North Carolina.

It echoes something that Charlie Cook said during his appearance at Elon earlier this week:

"The last year and half, at least in terms of the presidential (race), I have felt like to the extent that the more you study voting patterns and election behavior and the more you know about presidential voting history, I think the bigger impediment it's been for the last year and a half. ...To me it's been a year where it's as if you took the rule book and just tossed it out."

Kind of reminds you of that old saying about what happens when you ass-u-me.

That Wall Street Journal piece goes on to describe all of Sen. Elizabeth Dole's Washington bona fides and why that should have given her a leg up here. That, of course, betrays the very Washington mindset that a U.S. Senate seat is a national office. While true to an extent, it's still voters in North Carolina that will determine the race.

What has Katherine Rizzo (the writer of the WSJ story) and Cook and other Washington-based analysts confused is that the campaigns for president, U.S. Senator and some other races have come unhinged from the national norms, at least over the summer. Regional and state-level factors -- local economic conditions, who knows who being shipped out to Iraq, what named storm is blowing through where -- are dominating voter thinking rather than any one single national drumbeat.

That’s not to say things won’t snap back into line at some point. In fact, over at the left-leaning blog "Facing South," Chris Kromm suggests Obama is pulling out of some Southern states where he’s invested resources, which would be a big nod to "historical voting patterns."

From the Rockingham Republican Party:

Rockingham County Republican Party plans family picnic on the grounds of Chinqua Penn Plantation

Members, guests and their families are invited to this pot-luck picnic

REIDSVILLE - Republican Congresswoman Virginia Foxx of the 5th District and Republican candidate for the 13th Congressional District, former state Sen. Hugh Webster of Yanceyville, will be in attendance at the Rockingham County Republican Party’s pot luck picnic to be held at 5pm Sept. 6 on the beautiful grounds of Chinqua Penn Plantation just outside of Reidsville.

Local Republican state Sen. Phil Berger and Rep. Bryan Holloway will be on hand to greet constituents.

The Rockingham GOP is seeking to build community among its diverse membership by offering this relaxed time of food and fellowship in a family friendly setting.

The local GOP is extending invitations to Republican candidates from across the state. Republican candidates for county commissioner will be in attendance along with representatives from the McCain, McCrory and Dole campaigns.

As a pot luck dinner, attendees are asked to bring food to share with others. Local Republican women's groups will provide tea and lemonade and the party will provide soft drinks, ice and tableware.

All Republicans and potential party members and their families are encouraged to attend. If you are certain of your attendance, please help us plan for this event by emailing info@rockgop.com with the number from your family or calling Tom Schoolfied, local party vice-chairman, at 336-634-0713. RSVP is not required but helpful for planning purposes.

The party asks for a small cash contribution at the picnic to help offset facility rental fees. Those attending the picnic are free to stroll the grounds of Chinqua Penn. House tours are available during normal business hours.

For directions please visit http://www.chinquapenn.com/directions.htm

The folks at Democracy North Carolina put out this week a table that showed how many new voters registered in each county since the beginning of the year.(XLS)

The Democracy NC folks were making the case that with all the new voters registered, counties would have to be ready for an onslaught this election season and should be ready to make use of early voting. Guilford County already has a pretty robust early voting program, with more than a dozen locations available in the run-up to an election.

From a horse-race analysis perspective, the numbers are enough to raise an eyebrow. Of the 12,654 new voters since Jan. 1, 9,061 registered as Democrats and another 3,690 registered as unaffiliated. You can very well chalk up the positive movement there in part to the Obama campaign coming in and getting its voter registration folks on the ground.

But in the Republican column, the party actually had 106 fewer people registered as Republicans six months into the year than it started with in 2008. Were I running the party or a county-wide candidate, that would make me pretty unhappy.

I don't think that's enough to base any predictions on, but those kinds of trends would be useful to anyone trying to build an argument that Democrats are surging in Guilford while the Republicans are having to work to hold their ground. They would also be useful to any local or statewide GOP machinery trying to make the case that it was time for a big voter registration effort.

Overall, I'm not sure the new voter registration numbers should have anyone jumping out of their skin yet. New registrants, while big in numbers terms, are still only 3.7 percent of all voters in Guilford County. What we don't know about that 3.7 percent is whether they're more or less likely to vote, more or less likely to keep to a party line when they do vote or whether they'll vote for the top five offices on the ballot and stop or keep going.

Related to yesterday's post on whether Libertarians would be included in upcoming debates: I spoke with the Libertarian candidate for governor, Mike Munger, today by phone. He was kind enough to let me record the conversation to share with y'all:

• * Munger says debate organizers shouldn't substitute their own judgment for that of the voters.

• * There is reason to believe, Munger said, that 2008 will be a relatively good year for Libertarians. At least, he said, it will be easier for them to keep they ballot access.

• * But Munger cautions that Libertarians need to take advantage of their opportunity. "Let's be honest. I think a lot of people have the perception that Libertarians aren't serious about trying to win office and that some of the issues that Libertarians emphasis are not really mainstream politics," Munger said. "I think that's exaggerated but it's not completely untrue. So some of the burden on us is to be able to conduct campaigns responsibly, in a way that's directed toward issues people care about."

The newspaper version of all this should run on Monday.

For those who are interested, click here with a MS Word file of Guilford County endorsements by the Replacement Ltd. PAC. More about the endorsements can be found here.

The PAC is primarily interested in influencing "the election of local, state and national candidates who will best support and promote the rights of lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBT) citizens," according to its website. It is headed by principals at Replacements Ltd., a local company that sells china and silver and such.

Some highlights:

They endorse state Sen. Kay Hagan in her U.S. Senate run, but give Chapel Hill investment banker a nod, giving and indication that he's an okay candidate too.

All three Democrats running in the 6th Congressional District, currently held by Republican Howard Coble, get okay-to-vote-for nods, although Jay Ovittore comes away with the endorsement.

Richard Moore is the only candidate for governor to get an endorsement or any other comment from the PAC.

Katie Dorsett gets an endorsement in her bid for re-election.

The Libertarian Party of North Carolina says it has almost gathered enough petitions (about 70,000) to qualify as a political party in the state again. If they do that, and there are no problems and the Board of Elections certifies it, the party will be able to run its slate of candidates in the fall election.

That slate, according to a press release from the party, will include Mike Munger, a Duke University professor, for governor. Mark McMains of Fuquay-Varina was nominated for insurance commissioner.

In the eighth Congressional District, which promises to be a rematch of the 2006 election between Republican incumbent Robin Hayes and Democratic Larry Kissel, the Libertarians have nominated Thomas Hill of Concord. That was a barn burner of an election last time and one would think a Libertarian in the race probably draws from Hayes' constituency and helps Kissel a bit.

Paul Elledge will be offered up as a Guilford County Commissioner at-large candidate. Aside from him, the Libertarians don't appear to have targeted any other local races. You can read the run-down on their candidates here. (No perma-link yet.)

North Carolina's Libertarian Party is getting ready to hold their state convention this weekend, April 12 and 13, at the La Quinta Inn, Burlington.

Expected guests include Mike Gravel, a former Alaska Senator who made the early Democratic debates entertaining to watch, and Bob Barr of Georgia.

From a Libertarian Party news release:

Former Democratic Sen. Mike Gravel, who recently defected to the Libertarian Party and is seeking the nomination for president, will attend the State Libertarian Convention this weekend in Burlington.

Sen. Gravel will arrive Friday evening and attend most of the convention session Saturday.

Another defector from the so-called major parties, former Republican Rep. Bob Barr, will also attend the Saturday sessions. Barr recently formed an exploratory committee to gauge support for seeking the Libertarian presidential nod.

The convention will open Saturday morning at 8;30 a.m. in the La Quinta Inn, Burlington.

The primary order of business will be nomination of candidates for Governor, Council of State seats and the General Assembly, especially in the unopposed districts. The party is on the verge of completing its petition drive to regain its spot on the ballot.

Nominations for the gubernatorial candidate will take place Sunday morning. There will also be a Presidential Candidates Forum and Straw Vote.

In addition to nominating candidates, delegates will also consider changes to the LPNC Platform on Saturday, including a proposal to oppose the "Real ID," a scheme for a national ID card.

In addition to Gravel and Barr, three announced presidential candidates also will attend. They are Dr. George Phillies of Massachusetts, a physics professor at Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Dr. Mary Ruwart of Texas, a biochemist, nutraceutical company consultant and author of the best-selling "Healing Our World in an Age of Aggression," and Wayne Allyn Root, a TV sports commentator know as "America's Oddsmaker."