News-Record.com

Kay Hagan, a Greensboro state senator and Democrat, has knocked Republican Elizabeth Dole out of her U.S. Senate seat. That's remarkable for any number of reasons, not the least of which is Dole was supposed to be unbeatable if you listened the national media six months ago.

(For the record, I had a slightly different take back in May.)

Worth noting locally is that Hagan will be the first U.S. Senator elected from Greensboro. That's not to say there haven't been some with connections.

According to Congressional historians, Bedford Brown served in the U.S. Senate in the 1800s and died at "'Rose Hill,' Caswell County, N.C., near Greensboro, December 6, 1870; interment in the family cemetery at 'Rose Hill.'"

Jesse Franklin, a former governor and U.S. Senator, is buried at the Guilford Battleground National Park.

Perhaps the closest contender was David Settle Reid, "a Representative and a Senator from North Carolina; born near Reidsville, Rockingham County, N.C., on April 19, 1813."

Also close (but no cigar) was William Kerr Scott, "a Senator from North Carolina; born in Haw River, Alamance County, N.C., April 17, 1896; attended the public schools of Hawfields, N.C.; graduated from North Carolina State College at Raleigh in 1917."

From our friends at the Associated Press:

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) _ Incumbent GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole continued Saturday to question her campaign rival's attendance at a fundraiser hosted by an adviser to an atheist advocacy group.

Dole's campaign began sending out automated telephone calls that talks about Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan and the Godless Americans Political Action Committee. Her campaign said 1.3 million calls are planned through Monday.

Hagan has sued Dole her initial television ad about the fundraiser, accussing her of defamation and libel. The initial spot concludes with a picture of Hagan while another woman says, "There is no God." Hagan is an elder at her Presbyterian church and has responded with an ad that strongly declares her Christian faith.

Dole said Saturday she didn't know whether her advertisement had succeeded in its intended purpose, but she defended the widely criticized line of attack.

"There are two issues. One: why did she go? And the second, what does she think about their agenda?" Dole said in an interview. "She's not answering the ... questions."

The automated call asks listeners to "press one" to hear from Hagan. Recipients then hear clips of an interview in which Hagan tries to explain why she attended the event after Dole's campaign had raised questions about the hosts.

The event was not billed as a Godless Americans event, and other hosts included an ambassador and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, the 2004 Democratic presidential nominee.

The following is a prepared statement sent to me by the Piedmont Freethought Association about everyone's favorite (or not) campaign ad:

The Piedmont Freethought Association is a group of North Carolina citizens that has met in Greensboro for many years. Our members have in common only the fact that we do not accept religion as unquestionable truth. We represent non-believing and non religious Americans from all walks of life. Like most Americans, we pay taxes, raise families, and donate time and money to charitable causes to serve our country and communities. We also hold many diverse political philosophies including Republican, Democrat, and Independent. Therefore, the Association is not usually interested in participating in political races that take place here. We certainly have never discussed the notion of endorsing or opposing any candidate for public office.

However, the recent use of an attack ad by Senator Elizabeth Dole against her opponent, Kay Hagan, has led us to make the following statement:

Senator Dole's use of scare tactics, implying that her opponent is either atheist or in sympathy with atheists, does a great disservice to the people of this state. There are a large number of people in North Carolina who do not follow a religion and do not believe in a God or Gods, yet do strongly believe in the principles of democracy and freedom of religion that our nation was founded on. No member of the Piedmont Freethought Association, past or present, has done anything to warrant the insinuation by Senator Dole that we are in any way dangerous or worthy of lesser standing as citizens than anyone else. This is an insult to all of us, but especially those veterans in our association who proudly served and sacrificed for our country in uniform.

We respect Senator Dole's right to say whatever she pleases in her ads, restricted only by campaign laws and funding. However, we respectfully request that she consider removing this ad from circulation as a matter of civic decency. We also ask that she issue a statement to the effect that she recognizes that non-believers and all minority citizens of North Carolina have full rights and standing to participate in the voting process, and to express their views. Finally, we ask that she apologize to Kay Hagan for insinuating there should be a religious test for public office.

Hagan Spokesman Colleen Flanagan said that the ad contradicts a statement Dole spokesman Hogan Gidley made to the Independent:

Dole spokesman Hogan Gidley insists the ad did not imply that Stone is an non-believer, or even that the fundraiser was an atheist event. "There were people there of several different, I'm sure, religious backgrounds," he says. "I'm sure there were some Christians there. But we know there to be some atheists there."

"This whole thing is not about religion," Gidley says. "It's about a radical agenda from a group that wants to take ‘under God' from the Pledge of Allegiance and ‘In God We Trust' off the money, and not allow Christmas to be a federal holiday. Members of the Senate vote to confirm judges at all levels of government. And the battlefront for these cases against God in our public square are fought in local courts." (That's not quite true: Senators confirm federal judges.)

From our friends at the Associated Press:

RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) _ Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole is back on the airwaves with a new ad that again decries her rival's ties to an atheist group.

Dole says in the ad airing Friday that the faith of Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan is not the question. The incumbent says the facts are that Godless Americans held a fundraiser in her honor in Boston.

An adviser for Godless Americans held a fundraiser at his home. The event was not billed as a Godless Americans event, and other hosts included an ambassador and U.S. Sen. John Kerry.

Hagan has already filed suit against Dole, saying an initial ad on the subject was defamatory.

Dole ends her new ad by asking voters, "If Godless Americans threw a party in your honor, would you go?"

Hagan already had a couple of ads up responding to the Dole's ad on Godless Americans. Here's a third, that's a little more head-on:

Hagan says Dole faked her voice in the ad. My reading of the back-up material was the ad used the voice of a member of the Godless Americans PAC. But because it was played over Hagan's picture and most people don't know what Hagan sounds like, one could jump to the wrong conclusion.

Libertarian Chris Cole, the third candidate in the U.S. Senate race, has some thoughts he e-mailed along on the Godless Americans ad controversy:

The Republicans are demonstrating absolute desperation. Their inability to campaign on principles - they have none- forces them to scrape the bottom of the Helms barrel.

Hagan, on the other hand, is offensively disingenuous. She turns to a damsel-in-distress routine because she really has no defense. She was well-aware that her relationship to the Godless Americans PAC would be offensive to most Carolinians. That's why SHE never publicized it. She got caught, and turns to crocodile tears to gain sympathy.

Cross-posted from Capital Beat.

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Jim Neal, who faced Kay Hagan in the U.S. Senate primary, is weighing in on the general election campaign. In particular, he takes aim at Dole's ad on Hagan suggesting Hagan may sympathize with a "Godless" agenda. From his piece on "The Daily Beast:"

Florence Nightingale unleashed her fangs yesterday. The Dole campaign lit up the airways with a stinging commercial suggesting that Democrat challenger Kay Hagan was other-than Godly and Democrats are seething. Kay is in fact an active member of the First Presbyterian Church in Greensboro. She attends Sunday School class regularly. She has served as a church elder. Dole’s attempt to smear her as a secularist is none other than just that. Local television and YouTube should be running a Hagan counter-attack ad tomorrow. I expect Kay will express outrage at anyone who would impugn her faith and then pivot back to her message emphasizing Dole’s voting record, absences from the state and high points of the 2008 Democrat Party economic playbook (i.e., knot a Bush around Dole’s neck.)

Click here for the whole thing. One wonders what kind of ads Dole may have launched based on Neal’s fundraising and endorsements.

State Sen. Kay Hagan is suing U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole over the "Godless" ads.

Click here for the complaint.

I just filed the following to our online site:

U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole, a Republican, says she has no intention of taking down an ad connecting her opponent, state Sen. Kay Hagan, to Godless Americans PAC.

The Greensboro Democrat said the ad implies that she does not believe in God and has demanded that Dole cease airing it.

“I think Kay Hagan needs to explain to people why she did that, why she would … make the trip to Boston and go to the home of the home of the founder of the Godless American PAC,” Dole said after appearing at a campaign event in Lexington today. “What do they stand for? They stand for taking God out of the pledge of allegiance, for taking God off our money.”

At a news conference this morning, Hagan said she did not know about the Godless American PAC when she went to Boston for a fundraiser that was organized by ActBlue and hosted by more than 40 individuals.

“I would never, ever condone this kind of personal slander,” Hagan said of the Dole ad. Hagan said she has sent a cease and desist letter to the Dole campaign and a spokeswoman for Hagan said the matter could end up in court.

Click below to listen to my brief interview with Dole this afternoon:

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Here's the 30-second ad, by the way, courtesy of my friends at the The Legion of Dome.

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For those following the back and forth over U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole's ad inferring state Sen. Kay Hagan might be "Godless," you can click here or below for audio of a press conference Hagan held this morning.

More to come on all this. Perviously.

Update: From Allen Johnson.

Remember the story about state Sen. Kay Hagan taking money from "Godless Americans?"

It's back.

U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole, who is defending her seat against Hagan, has put an add on the air, starting with newscasts that aired at 5 p.m. Tuesday night, that draws connections between Hagan and Godless Americans PAC.

The ad is based on the fact that Hagan attended a Boston fundraiser that was hosted by more than 30 people. Click here to see the invite.

It took place at the home of Wendy Kaminer and Woody Kaplan, who are leaders in secularist/atheist circles. Kaplan is a founder of Godless Americans PAC.

You can click here to see the text of the ad the Dole's campaign back-up for the claims.

Hagan, who is a church elder, said the ad misrepresents her views. In particular, she says she is incensed by a piece of the ad that shows her picture on screen while a woman's voice says, "There is no God."

I'll have a story on this in tomorrow's paper - you can read a draft after the jump of this post. I'm working on pulling down a copy of the 30-second spot, but you can see a longer non-televised spot by a National Republican Senatorial Committee here:

As I explain in the story, a politician just cannot get elected in North Carolina begin godless. Yes, on behalf of some voters there is a prejudice against different points of view. But far more, I have the sense, take it as a sign of arrogance or a lack of a certain moral barometer. (Note: I am NOT endorsing that view, just saying it is held by some voters.) It just does not play here.

With less than a week before Election Day, this is an aggressive move by Dole - who had to put her "I approve this message" line on the ad. The lack of time makes it harder to push-back against an ad, and the message is pretty severe.

On a side note, I've been writing stories that involved Hagan since 2001 and covered her in the legislature since 2005. This, bar none, is about as angry as I've ever heard her. The newspaper story is after the jump.

For those interested in Kay Hagan's Country Club membership, Politico reports:

The husband of North Carolina Democratic Senate hopeful Kay Hagan is a lifelong member of an exclusive country club that didn’t admit its first black member until 1995, Hagan’s campaign disclosed Tuesday.

Charles “Chip” Hagan III, a businessman and former Democratic county leader, “supported opening up membership” at the 1,000-member Greensboro Country Club -- but remained a member for years despite his opposition to the club’s de facto segregation policy, Hagan spokeswoman Colleen Flanagan told Politico.

Kay Hagan, who is counting on strong support among North Carolina’s black Democrats to unseat Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole, has never been a member of the club herself, Flanagan added.

“Chip supported broadening the membership to include African Americans and others,” she said. “Though it took longer than it should have, Greensboro County Club fully desegregated in 1995 and remains so today.”

Hagan, a state senator and niece of former Florida Sen. Lawton Chiles, leads Dole by one to three points in a race that is one of the most bitterly fought in the country.

The vast majority of black leaders in the North Carolina back Hagan, who pushed through a $1.5 million state grant for an international civil rights museum in the state senate and recently voted for a bill banning cross burning and the display of nooses.

Click here for their full post.

Update: Hagan's spokeswoman sent along the following, which has been reported in other stories:

"This is textbook Washington desperation. For Elizabeth Dole to be launching these kinds of attacks to cover up her own record of using and defending racially tinged tactics last election cycle as the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee is despicable. And just months ago, Dole chose not to condemn the racist ad run against Democrats in this year’s gubernatorial primary, saying "I'm just not going to get into refereeing a third party political ad that has nothing to do with my race." Those attacks have no place in this campaign, which should be about moving the country forward, not backward. Chip supported broadening the membership to include African Americans and others. Though it took longer than it should have, Greensboro County Club fully desegregated in 1995 and remains so today."

Update: After the jump, a story from the time about the integration of GSO Country Club.

From
Red State this morning:

Hagan lives on Meadowbrook Terrace in Greensboro, North Carolina. Her property is just down the street from the Greensboro Country Club. She and her husband have lived there since 1984. Charles, her husband, is a legacy member of Greensboro Country Club.

The Country Club didn't allow black members until at least 1995. According to Michael Riley, writing in Time on June 25, 1990, ""Signs of separation persist in the city's neighborhoods, nightclubs, gazes and words. A perspiring black man, nattily dressed in suspenders, white shirt and a hat, pushes a mower across a lush lawn just yards from the elite, whites-only Greensboro Country Club."

Jack Scis, writing in the News & Record on April 6, 1995, noted, "Greensboro Country Club may join other clubs in admitting African-Americans."

This year, in The News & Observer, Kay Hagan told Rob Christiensen, "The Hagans sent their children to the private Greensboro Day School and the family is a member of the Greensboro Country Club, which she said is racially integrated."

Hagan just failed to leave out that she and her husband were members well before the County Club started letting black people through the front door. And you can get on Nexis yourself. You'll find no record of Kay Hagan ever standing up publicly against the policy.

The post also mentions Hagan attending a fundraiser with Godless Americans PAC, which I wrote about here.

So is this anything? Does the policy of a country club that changed 15 years ago and that Hagan belongs to make a difference in your mind? Or is this just so much chaff in the campaign?

(By the way, I think Red State is quote from a column by Jack Scism - not "Scis" - a fixture here in our paper's pages, who writes a history column for us these days.)

Update: My boss also points out that the post in question misspells the name of News & Observer writer Rob Christensen.

From today's paper:

If television commercials are to be believed, the U.S. Senate campaign features a Republican ne’er-do-well incumbent in league with an unpopular president versus a snippy state senator with a penchant for raising taxes and apron strings tied to powerful Democratic figures.

It’s hyperbole, to be sure.

Neither U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole, the Republican incumbent, nor Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan live up to the images on TV ads of late — for good or ill.

But who are the women portrayed in these ads? Have they been effective legislators?

Is there some truth in advertising?

Click here to read the whole thing. And click below to discuss.

I have been meaning to get reaction to something in the U.S. Senate race from out there in the blog-o-verse about this but it has slipped my mind until this blog post (from Minnesota no less!) reminded me of the topic this morning:

Elizabeth Dole is continuing her campaign in North Carolina of smearing her opponent, Kay Hagan, for simply associating with atheists. We atheists are the "most vile, radical liberals in America," out to wage war on Christmas and stock boy scout troops with homosexuals, and we actively support political candidates who are atheists. I know … how dare we.

I have a personal reason to be offended, however. The Dole ads cite endorsements by two atheists, FriendlyAtheist.com and DaylightAtheism.org. Now hang on…what's so scary about the Friendly atheist? And Daylight Atheism sounds positively pleasant. Couldn't they find one mean, cruel, truly frightening atheist to give a testimonial, like maybe one with an obscure and somewhat intimidatingly intellectual name?

The entire post is here. Dome has written about this here.

I asked Hagan about this fundraiser back when she was in the building for an editorial board interview. Hagan described herself as a "devout Christian" and said she's working with folks of all different religious stripes.

"I believe the people you're talking about typically have Democratic fundraisers and (they asked) to support me from a standpoint and I agreed," she said.

Click here to listen to her full answer.

So does this matter to you? Would you base a vote on this association? Or this merely a distraction in a race that has a lot of other issues to deal with?

This is an ad running against Sen. Elizabeth Dole in her re-election campaign against state Sen. Kay Hagan right now:

Sponsored by VoteVets.org, it is substantially the same commercial used in the 2006 U.S. Senate campaign against George Allen:

Back in 2006, here's what FactCheck.org had to say about it:

Granato says of the newer armor, "Senator George Allen voted against giving our troops this. Now it's time for us to vote against him."

That's false. Allen did not vote against giving troops modern body armor. What the ad cites is a vote on an amendment April 2, 2003, just days before the fall of Baghdad, that would have appropriated just over $1 billion for unspecified "National Guard and Reserve Equipment." It made no mention of body armor. And when the amendment's sponsor, Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, took the Senate floor to give examples of the kinds of equipment that might be purchased with this money, she cited "skin reduction exposure paste," "mobile chemical agent detectors," and "collective shelters" for chemical attacks – but didn't once mention buying body armor. Neither did any other senator. Her amendment was killed by a mostly party-line vote.

It is true that in a press release Landrieu quoted the Marine Corps Reserve as saying it needed more "bullet-proof inserts, and tactical vests" before another wave of reservists went to Iraq, among many other items. But neither Landrieu nor any other senator mentioned that during debate.

More importantly, there was already money for buying body armor. As we explain in more detail later in this article, the Pentagon was already in the process of vastly increasing its orders for the latest-model armored vests, and the shortages that plagued some units in Iraq for the first few months of the war were due not to a lack of money, but to the inability of Pentagon contractors to manufacture the vests fast enough to meet the sudden spike in demand, and problems getting the gear shipped to the troops.

The Dole ad cites two votes in the 108th Congress. One is the same as cited in the Allen ad. The other is this one, which appears to have been the same sort of amendment and failed along the same kind of party-line vote.

Draw your own conclusions, but I tend to view this ad as suspect.

This has got to be crazy-making if you're trying to intervene in a U.S. Senate campaign:

In the last week, Kay Hagan -- Democratic challenger to Sen. Elizabeth Dole for North Carolina's U.S. Senate seat -- has been hammered by critical robo-calls from two operations: Freedom's Watch, a non-profit founded by GOP operatives in 2007, and the Free Enterprise Alliance, an offshoot of the Associated Builders and Contractors, whose PAC is the third-biggest contributor to Republicans in the country.

But instead of calling North Carolina voters, maybe the anti-Hagan robo-callers need to get on the phone and talk to each other. Because on at least one of the key issues Hagan is being attacked over -- immigration -- the two groups are sending voters a mixed message.

With one month to go before Election Day, state Sen. Kay Hagan, a Greensboro Democrat, has to be feeling good about her chances to unseat Republican Elizabeth Dole. Consider:

• * PPP, a Democratic-friendly polling firm shows her with a lead. (PDF)

• * Rasmussen, a Republican-friendly firm, also shows her with a lead and editorializes: "it’s never comfortable for an incumbent to be trailing this late in the campaign season. Adding to Dole’s problems is the fact that John McCain finds himself in a very tight race with Barack Obama for North Carolina’s Electoral College votes. That means Dole can’t count on the lift from the top of the ticket usually enjoyed by the state’s GOP candidates."

• * Politico waded into the race recently, writing a piece that is the equivalent of intellectual catnip for Democrats: "Top Republicans say they have no hope for Dole in North Carolina. “There’s no point in even counting the votes,” said a top McCain official."

So should we stick a fork in this thing?

No.

Just as it would have been dumb to write this race off in Dole's favor back in May, it'd be silly for Hagan to start doing victory laps now.

If for no other reason, Hagan has gotten to where she is by running a pedal to the metal campaign. Letting up would just give Dole and opening.

Also, we all learned from the primaries this year that polling can be thrown off. And while the 30 day window before the election is closing fast, there's still time for this thing to move once again.

So, if it's all the same to y'all, I really think we ought to count the votes on Election Day.

Sen. Elizabeth Dole, a Republican, was one of 25 senators to vote against the financial industry rescue (bailout) package Thursday. In a written statement, she said:

"Action is clearly needed to return stability to our financial markets, but most importantly, effective, sound action is needed. To fix the markets, we must deliver a market-based solution, not a government bailout.

"Because of unrelated spending additions, this bill now comes at a cost of over $800 billion, and it is still a government takeover of our economy with no protection for taxpayers. It raises the debt ceiling to $11.3 trillion. It bails out foreign investors before American homeowners struggling to pay their mortgages. And it does nothing to address the root cause of this mess, the housing crisis.

"I was against the Administration’s original plan. I was against the bill that failed in the House. This latest revision is an improvement but still contains the flaws of the earlier proposals, and I will not support it.

"While it may be easier for some in Congress to quickly pass a bill, pat themselves on the back and say they’ve done their part to stabilize the markets, then pack up and head home – I say we must take the time to get this right. There are a number of possible alternatives being suggested by economists, bankers and experts from every political stripe.

"Now is the time for careful, deliberate actions – not hasty, knee-jerk reactions. I will stand up for the taxpayers and vote no."

Dole is in a tough re-election fight against Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan. Even taking her statement at face value, it certainly seems to be a trend that those in tougher election fights are more prone to oppose the bill.

Earlier this week, Hagan declined to take a firm position on the bailout bill, saying that she had "grave concerns." In a statement issued Thursday evening, those concerns turned to outright opposition:

"I support this legislation's goal of freeing up the credit markets to stimulate an economy on the brink, but I would have voted against it because it doesn’t do enough to protect everyday North Carolinians," Kay said. "It's a fix for Wall Street, not Main Street, and this isn’t a situation where we can afford to only address half the problem. I’ve said that any new bailout legislation must add real accountability, oversight and protections for Main Street to ensure we never find ourselves in this position again."

Kay continues to insist that any bailout legislation include protections to fix the abuses that caused this crisis. The lax limits on CEO pay and compensation while including nothing to address protections for working families – lost jobs, high energy prices, falling wages and home prices – do nothing for the people this package should really protect.

"We got into this mess after years of Washington looking the other way and letting Wall Street and their lobbyists do as they pleased. And at a time when Main Street needs Washington to stand up for them the most, we should be ensuring this doesn’t happen again, not giving them our money and crossing our fingers," Kay said.

Both statements are similar in their sentiments. I'm wondering if the two campaigns are seeing polling or something else that says the bailout is particularly unpopular with some key constituency down here.

State Sen. Kay Hagan, a Democrat running to unseat Elizabeth Dole, just held an interesting conference call.

The express purpose of the call was to ding Sen. Elizabeth Dole for her action, or lack of action, as a member of the Senate Banking Committee and for supposedly wanting to loosen regulations for Wall Street firms. (You can read Hagan's backgrounder on the call here. I haven't checked through it, so I'm not expressing an opinion on whether all this ads up to what Hagan is saying.)

Toward the end of the call, Hagan was asked about the financial bailout package and whether she would vote for it - several times. And several times, she resisted giving a yes or no answer.

Click here to listen to the exchanges.

As to whether Dole should support it: "I'm letting her make that decision on her own. I'll be interested to see what she does and what she says about it."

As to whether she herself would vote for it: "I keep questioning why in the world are we in this position today where we are."

Finally, when asked whether she, herself, would back it, Hagan ticked off a list of things that she wanted to see but added, "I have grave concerns about a lot of the stuff that's going on right now."

What do you want to be that the Dole campaign is going to push back on that with something like: If you're going to go after an incumbent for not taking the lead on financial legislation, shouldn't you, yourself, have a position on whether the marquis piece of financial rescue legislation of the day should, itself, be passed?

State Sen. Kay Hagan, the Greensboro Democrat running to unseat Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole, got here "green" credential stamped pretty indelibly last week.

As Hotline and the Hill (and others more diligent about checking their e-mail than I am) reported, Al "You Want to See my Nobel Prize" Gore has stepped in to help raise money for Hagan. From The Hotline:

Al Gore is linking up with Move On to help raise coin for three Dem Senate candidates -- Al Franken in MN, Kay Hagan in NC and Mark Udall in CO -- who the former veep believes are "clean-energy heroes."

The e-mail says, "Kay Hagan is a North Carolina state senator and a strong supporter of solar power. She pushed to require North Carolina utilities to adopt renewable energy."

As with the candidates for governor, the editorial board filmed their interviews with the Democratic and Republican candidates for U.S. Senate. The following are three segments our tech fellows turned out from the conversations with State Sen. Kay Hagan, a Democrat, and Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole. (The editorial board chose not to interview the libertarian in the race, so send your cards, letters and angry e-mails to Allen Johnson.)

In this case, the video segments don't match up on topic, so I'll give you Hagan's first, and then Dole's. Enjoy.

Hagan: Working across party lines

Hagan: Energy and drilling

Hagan: Healthcare

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Dole: Immigration

Dole

Dole: Iraq war spending

Dole: No Child Left Behind

A couple weeks ago I wrote about energy policy and the U.S. Senate race, trying to lay out where U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole, the Republican incumbent, and Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan stood on a variety of energy/drilling/etc.-related topics. The story and blog post came with a handy chart breaking down the candidate's positions.

Since then, Dole and Hagan have decided to blast away at one another, specifically on drilling. From this Associated Press story, readers might be forgiven for expecting the two ladies to start doing photo ops on oil rigs with giant over-size wrenches and the story of Jed Clampett playing in the background.

Of course, when two candidates agree, or have positions that are close to one another on a particular topic, there's only one thing to do: accuse your opponent of being on the take from the industry in question and/or distort your opponent's position/influence over the topic at hand.

To wit, we have two campaigns ads recently released from the campaigns. I'll provide them here (thanks to Dome for putting them on YouTube) along with source materials from those that produced it and material debunking the ad from both the candidate that was targeted and News & Record editorial writer Doug Clark, who has already done some hard thinking on this. A few thoughts from me after the carnage.

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First up, Dole's attack on Hagan, aka the "Ka-Ching" ad:

Here's what Dole's campaign put out in support of the ad.

Here's what Doug had to say: "Elizabeth Dole's new "Fibber Kay" TV ad is out of date and inaccurate."

And here's what Hagan's campaign had to say: "Continuing her negative attacks and outright lies, Elizabeth Dole today released a commercial saying that Kay Hagan is opposed to offshore drilling, even though Kay has repeatedly voiced her support for drilling."

As bonus push-back, Hagan's campaign prepared a memo showing Dole had her own investments in oil fields.

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Next up, Hagan's ad attacking Dole, aka the "Paying the Price" ad:

Here's what Hagan's campaign put out in support of the ad.

Here's what Doug had to say: "But making an issue of Elizabeth Dole's ownership of oil industry stock, and making a political target of the oil industry in general, isn't smart ... and not just because Hagan herself is invested in the industry."

And here is the push-back offered by the Dole campaign.

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So what should voters take away from all this? A few things, I think:

• * Number one, if you're like most of the folks who are going cast to votes in this election, neither Kay Hagan nor Elizabeth Dole is like you. They own stock and shares in oil wells that are worth more than your net value several times over. If either of them tries to convince you they're feeling the same pain at the pump you are, your BS meter should not only immediately go to red but start smoking, beeping and eventually break down from exhaustion.

• * Both candidates have a history of not really liking the idea of drilling off the North Carolina coast because of its potential environmental hazards. And both have softened that position due to changing economic and political realities.

  Both now say they support the so-called "gang of 10" compromise in Congress, which is now up to a "gang of 14" if my memory serves. Hagan rightly points out that Dole isn't in that gang, but neither are 86 other senators.

• * Dole has been in favor of drilling in the Alaska wildlife refuge for a long time. Hagan says she would vote to allow it only if it were part of a comprehensive solution. In Dole's mind that puts Hagan in camp with "environmental extremists," but I'm thinking the real extremists wouldn't like Hagan leaving that particular door open.

• * No candidate, these two included, can say exactly what drilling might accomplish. Most of the non-partisan analysis I have read of "drill now" options says that we probably shouldn't expect the price at the pump to go down as a result. Now, it seems to me there probably is an energy security argument to be made: If we get more and/or all of the oil we need from home then we don't have to rely on people who want to kill us for fuel. But if a candidate tries to sell you on the "your price for gas will go down significantly" argument, I'd tell you to get out your BS meter, but it’s probably already broken.

• * You will notice that it doesn't sound like there is a lot of daylight between Hagan and Dole on this issue. To me, the differences seem to be in emphasis: Hagan is more likely to talk about alternatives with a chaser of off-shore drilling; Dole talks on the stump about drilling first and then says alternative fuels are needed too.

From the John McCain and Barack Obama campaigns (Source):

"All of us came together on 9/11 – not as Democrats or Republicans – but as Americans," said a joint statement issued by both Senator's campaigns. "In smoke-filled corridors and on the steps of the Capitol; at blood banks and at vigils – we were united as one American family. On Thursday, we will put aside politics and come together to renew that unity, to honor the memory of each and every American who died, and to grieve with the families and friends who lost loved ones."

Linked here almost solely because of its opening line, this piece from the Wall Street Journal Web site:

The prize for "Twilight Zone" race of 2008 – the one that defies all logic unless you forget everything you thought you knew before – may go to the Senate contest in North Carolina.

It echoes something that Charlie Cook said during his appearance at Elon earlier this week:

"The last year and half, at least in terms of the presidential (race), I have felt like to the extent that the more you study voting patterns and election behavior and the more you know about presidential voting history, I think the bigger impediment it's been for the last year and a half. ...To me it's been a year where it's as if you took the rule book and just tossed it out."

Kind of reminds you of that old saying about what happens when you ass-u-me.

That Wall Street Journal piece goes on to describe all of Sen. Elizabeth Dole's Washington bona fides and why that should have given her a leg up here. That, of course, betrays the very Washington mindset that a U.S. Senate seat is a national office. While true to an extent, it's still voters in North Carolina that will determine the race.

What has Katherine Rizzo (the writer of the WSJ story) and Cook and other Washington-based analysts confused is that the campaigns for president, U.S. Senator and some other races have come unhinged from the national norms, at least over the summer. Regional and state-level factors -- local economic conditions, who knows who being shipped out to Iraq, what named storm is blowing through where -- are dominating voter thinking rather than any one single national drumbeat.

That’s not to say things won’t snap back into line at some point. In fact, over at the left-leaning blog "Facing South," Chris Kromm suggests Obama is pulling out of some Southern states where he’s invested resources, which would be a big nod to "historical voting patterns."

Sen. Elizabeth Dole's campaign sends word that her husband, former Kansas Sen. Bob Dole, will be in Greensboro Thursday. The stops include:

11:00 a.m. Arrive Greensboro Harley Davidson Dealership Harley Davidson Dealership/Park 538 Farragut Street (off Randelman exit) Greensboro, NC Format: The dealership will be hosting an event honoring police, firemen and first responders (plus their families) in honor of September 11th.

12:55 p.m. Tex and Shirley’s Family Restaurant
708 Pembroke Rd.
Greensboro
Format: Meet and greet with people having lunch.

2:35 p.m. Arrive Greensboro Farmers Market
2914 Sandy Ridge Rd.
Colfax
Format: Swing by the Farmers Market restaurant where he will visit with local farmers.

I was raised in Maryland, a state south of Mason-Dixon Line that is none-the-less not quite southern, at least in the Baltimore-D.C. corridor. Sure, we have syrupy, hot summers, regional dialects and you can find a descent plate of chicken and greens around, but the state’s affluence, industry and proximity to New Jersey, Philadelphia and the like - not to mention Washington, D.C. - dilutes the states southern-ness – southernocity – whatever.

So it took me a while to learn some of the subtleties of the lingo - scratch that, I'm still learning - when I moved down here in 2000. Among the oft used phrases I ran across was "Bless your heart." As the urban dictionary points out it can be a term of sympathy. If can also mean something else entirely, akin to suggesting what one might do with one's head while taking a long walk off a short pier.

So it was a bit jarring to see the term used in Politico's piece that paints U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole as the very model of a modern southern matron. One, I haven't heard her use it all that often. And two, well, bless their hearts, from the Politico piece:

RALEIGH, N.C. — If Elizabeth Dole sometimes channels Scarlett O’Hara as she works the Tobacco Road campaign circuit, then state Sen. Kay Hagan seems to have some sort of long-distance mind-meld with Chuck Schumer.

Um, wasn't Scarlett O'Hara a selfish pragmatist willing to step on friends and family members to get what she wanted? Ah, she was well mannered about it though. Here’s a bit more:

On a warm summer evening in Raleigh, Dole floats through a crowd of corporate farmers and sausage processors, greeting them with no shortage of “Oh, bless your hearts” as fans bask in her Southern charm.

Speaking at an agribusiness forum, Dole runs through her accomplishments on immigration, tobacco and biofuels, making homespun, folksy jokes along the way.

Then Hagan steps to the mike and blasts away, sounding more like a candidate for the New York City Council than the Carolina native that she is.

“People like Elizabeth Dole have given too much power to the special interests,” Hagan says. She hits Dole for a “lack of effectiveness,” says she was “nowhere to be found” on a recent energy compromise, and raises the senator’s “40 years in Washington” as proof that she’s disconnected from the voters.

Basically, the piece paints Hagan as a meany-meany-bo-beany while certifying Dole as a white-cotton-glove-wearing genuine lady of taste and manners.

As our friends at Dome wrote this morning, Dole's recent ads comparing Hagan to a yappy dog and her judiciously-deployed but ready reservoir of knocks on Hagan shows there's "a little more steel than magnolia" there.

Is Hagan going after Dole aggressively? Yup.

Is Dole returning the favor? Yup.

Should we expect any different? Nope.

They're not running for sorority social chairman here folks.

In this post from over the weekend, I talked about state Sen. Kay Hagan and her position on unions. Specifically, the Democrat who is trying to unseat Republican Elizabeth Dole told our editorial board she might favor a federal policy that would force states like North Carolina to allow public employees to collectively bargain.

Cutting to the chase, Hagan says she misspoke. But a little background: For those who might have missed it, there's audio in the original post. But this exchange between Hagan and editorial writer Doug Clark will give you a flavor of what I'm talking about:

Clark: "This is (about) collective barging for public employees. So, North Carolina law doesn't allow that. But would you support federal legislation that would mandate recognition of collective bargaining writes for state employees?

Hagan: "Not mandate it, but I would look at having the collective bargaining process available if the employees so voted on that."

Clark: "If the employees...?"

Hagan: "They would have the authority to make that decision."

Clark: "So, if the NCAE wanted collective bargaining rights, you would support that?"

Hagan: "Yes."

Clark: "Even though current state law currently prohibits that?"

Hagan: "Yes."

A spokesman for the campaign called me over the weekend to say Hagan was confused and didn't mean to say that, that in fact she would not support such a law. Because that was in direct contradiction of several direct quotes, I asked to hear from Hagan herself.

Hagan called me this morning while I was on the line with someone else, but left a voice mail. I've posted a portion of it here, so you can hear straight from here. It cuts off abruptly at the end because she launches into a phone number that probably doesn't need to be on the internets.

Click here for the audio of that.

"Once I'm elected to the U.S. Senate, I want you to know that I will never support a bill at the federal level that mandates states allow collective bargaining of state government employees. I truly believe that's a state's rights issue," Hagan said.

As the football announcers say: you make the call.

U.S. Senate candidate and Libertarian Christopher Cole doesn't have the money to put a campaign ad on the air, but he has been making use of e-mail to raise questions about Republican Elizabeth Dole, the incumbent, and Democrat Kay Hagan. One missive that arrived over the weekend takes aim at Hagan for her role in the Dell deal.

For those who didn't catch the news last week, Dell has said it might sell its plant in Forsyth County. That plant, Cole points out, was lured to North Carolina by way of incentives passed during a specially called session of the General Assembly.

Hagan was one of the original sponsors of that bill. (More here.-PDF)

Cole had this to say:

As do all Libertarians, US Senate nominee Christopher Cole opposes so-called "economic incentives", more properly referred to as "corporate welfare", as an immoral tax on citizens to benefit corporate profits. In addition to the moral issue, Dell's cut-and-run with Hagan's complicity clearly demonstrate the uselessness of such incentives.

Corporate welfare cannot produce economic development. Rather, it props up inefficient businesses at taxpayer expense. By promoting inefficient businesses over self-sufficient, consumer-preferred competitors, such government-corporate hybrids actually reduce longterm economic growth. In other words, the development and jobs claimed for such projects are actually just snake-oil promotions.

As a supporter of laissez-faire capitalism over corporatism, only Libertarian Christopher Cole advocates letting taxpayers keep their own money, because they can be trusted to support the best companies in the market. Something which cannot be said of Democrat Kay Hagan.

I'm not sure this line of attack works in a political context - readers probably tuned right out at "laissez-faire capitalism" - or is necessarily fair - a lot more people than just Hagan helped craft and vote that bill.

Still, Hagan has been trying to hammer away at Dole's voting record. I'm wonder if along with the yipping dog commercial, we're going to see some critiques of Hagan's state Senate votes from Dole's campaign.

By the way, here's a sample of what lawmakers at the time said about their approval of the Dell deal to my colleagues:

A bundle of tax incentives crafted to draw a major computer maker to the Piedmont Triad cleared the legislature Thursday.

The measure, worth at least $242.5 million over 15 years, could result in Texas-based Dell setting up a factory in either Guilford or Forsyth counties and employing perhaps as many as 2,000 people.

"We all know Dell can go anywhere in the world," state Sen. Kay Hagan , D-Guilford, said during floor debate. "We need this company. We need these jobs."

Salaries will average $28,000 and range from $18,000 to $140,000, state officials said.

Senators approved the bill 33-15. The House passed it a few hours later 92-18.

No matter how distasteful such government-sponsored breaks for certain businesses may be, North Carolina cannot stop the practice and risk missing out on new jobs, said Sen. David Hoyle, D-Gaston.

"If we don't play, we lose," said Hoyle, co-chairman of the Senate Finance Committee. "If we don't pass the bill, the jobs will go to Tennessee or Virginia, plain and simple."

The U.S. Senate race between Democrat Kay Hagan and Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole has been popping up in the ol' Google reader. The general trend seems to be national writers assessing North Carolina's campaign as increasingly competitive. Here are a couple of examples:

The New Republic blog breaks down Dole's barking dog ad:

In what is shaping up to be a hotly contested race, North Carolina Senator Elizabeth Dole has released a new ad admonishing her opponent Kay Hagan, a state senator, for lying. The spot is a response to ads that aired in August decrying Dole's work in the Senate as ineffective.

[snip]

There is another interpretation of the dog, however--one that's even less flattering. Some critics, including some people close to Hagan, have said that in using the dog, the Dole camp is implying that Hagan is whining, or--no way to put it delicately--that she is a bitch.

Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal's "Political Diary" blog titles its latest entry "Panic Time in North Carolina:"

Sarah Palin thrilled the GOP this week in St. Paul, reminding more than a few GOP veterans of how Elizabeth Dole wowed them at the 1996 Republican convention in San Diego. Too bad Mrs. Dole wasn't there to enjoy it. She skipped this week's festivities to focus on her re-election battle against state Senator Kay Hagan in what has become a must-watch race.

And for good reason: A new poll by a Democratic firm shows Mrs. Hagan with a five-point lead, echoing a host of recent polls that show a tight race getting tighter. Mrs. Dole is the biggest star on the North Carolina stage now that John Edwards is in disgrace. Chapel Hill-based venture capitalist Alston Gardner emailed us to explain why she's in trouble: "Much like John Edwards, she's just another pretty face that hasn't delivered for the citizens and leaders of North Carolina. Her focus has always been on a national audience and not doing the less glamorous, but politically necessary constituent services." Ouch.

From Saturday's paper: this story laying out the U.S. Senate candidate's position on a couple of union-related issues.

The summary is this: Incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole is no fan of legislation that would make it easier for folks to unionize or any legislation that would force North Carolina to allow public employees to collectively bargain.

State Sen. Kay Hagan, a Greensboro Democrat, didn't offer up an absolute endorsement of either of those ideas, but was fairly friendly toward them.

Click here to listen to Hagan's answers.

Click here to listen to Dole's.

And then click here for thoughts from editorial writer Doug Clark.

Some after action notes: This difference in positions could bolster the NRSC's narrative that Hagan is seeking support from traditional national Democratic strongholds, including big labor. (Click here for an example of that.)

After my story ran, a spokeswoman with the campaign wrote to say she would not be in favor of a federal law over-riding North Carolina's law prohibiting collective bargaining for public employees.

I think Kay was confused by the premise of the question, and inferred that he was talking about EFCA and not the separate issue of the federal govt. mandating that states allow public employees to collectively bargain. She would support public employees being allowed to collectively bargain (NCAE for example) if state law allowed that and the employees voted to do so. But fundamentally she believes that public employees being allowed to collectively bargain is a state's right issue.

Respectfully, that's was not the case. Clark asked this question several different ways during the editorial board interview, which you can her via the link above. You can listen to the segment yourself, but here's one fairly clear exchange:

Clark: "This is (about) collective barging for public employees. So, North Carolina law doesn't allow that. But would you support federal legislation that would mandate recognition of collective bargaining writes for state employees?

Hagan: "Not mandate it, but I would look at having the collective bargaining process available if the employees so voted on that."

Clark: "If the employees...?"

Hagan: "They would have the authority to make that decision."

Clark: "So, if the NCAE wanted collective bargaining rights, you would support that?"

Hagan: "Yes."

Clark: "Even though current state law currently prohibits that?"

Hagan: "Yes."

I'm not seeing a whole lot of ambiguity or confusion in those answers. By way of fuller disclosure, she was asked about her answers after the main part of the editorial board interview was over (but before she left the room) and confirmed them.

As the AP reports, Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole has an ad out attacking Greensboro Democrat Kay Hagan.

"They call her 'fibber Kay' Hagan," the ad begins.

Who the heck are “they?” Now, I’m not going to say I’ve talked to all 9 million residents in North Carolina, but I get around. Until the ad aired, I never heard anyone use that moniker. (And yes, I’ve heard some people use some nicknames for Hagan, not that one though.) Here’s the ad.

In other Senate campaign news of the day, a new poll shows Hagan up in the race by five points.

Sen. Elizabeth Dole met with the News & Record’s editorial board today, mainly to chat about her re-election race here in North Carolina. But the Republican incumbent chatted at the beginning of the interview about Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Arizona Sen. John McCain’s choice as a vice presidential running mate.

“I think she’ll be a very strong voice. She is commander and chief for the national guard of her state, and has a number of years in public service at various levels,” Dole said. “And I tell you, you know its interesting, when you’re the mayor, you have people knocking on your door, they’re right there across the street … it gets you very deeply involved in issues across the board.”

Dole was asked whether the Palin pick was hasty, teen-age daughters aside. Given news reports that McCain had only one or two conversations with the woman before putting her on the ticket, was the choice hasty?

“Knowing him and his way of doing things, I think he would have been very careful knowing how important this particular choice is,” Dole said.

Click here for the whole conversation. It’s about five minutes.

Update: Speaking of Palin, here's the McCain campaign's latest ad touting Palin (and knocking Obama):

Frank Eaton at Blue NC has put a video on state Sen. Kay Hagan up on YouTube. It is the first product of their BlueNC TV effort.

The video is well produced relative to a lot of stuff on the web. Content-wise, it is a rah-rah affair, stocked with footage from a campaign office opening in Greensboro. But if you need a reminder of what Hagan’s stump speech sounds like, here you go:

So the NRSC has an ad up attacking state Sen. Kay Hagan, a Democrat, who is running to unseat Republican incumbent Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

Wait, wait, wait a minute… I though the NRSC didn’t have any money because Republican Senators were a bunch of disappointing skin-flints, according to National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Ensign.

I’m so confused. Well, here’s something else to make your head hurt (via Real Clear Politics.):

I wonder, with beech volleyball off the tube for a whole two weeks now, is the Olympic theme really going to resonate? And if anyone took the whole, “we should really keep the third-party ads out of this race” thing seriously, this should just about put a nail in that coffin.

For those needing a flashback, the Politico has the 92/93 ad up that the DSCC put up in August:

Without taking a stand as to the message, I’ve got to like the DSCC ad better. North Carolina has plenty of old codgers talking politics, some of them even on front porches. While the Olympics are temporary, grumpy old men are an institution down here.

Is it me, or is this campaign getting sillier by the minute?

From a recently posted piece at CQ Politics:

John McCain should be able to count on 15 electoral votes from North Carolina, where Republican presidential voting strength has been pronounced. In 2004, President Bush carried the state by more than 12 percentage points, even though John Kerry had tapped John Edwards, then rounding out his one term representing North Carolina in the Senate, as his vice presidential running mate. It was the GOP’s ninth win in the past 10 presidential elections in North Carolina, dating to 1968. Georgia’s Jimmy Carter in 1976 was the only Democratic winner over that 40-year period.

Despite this, McCain cannot afford to ignore Barack Obama ’s efforts to pull off an upset, in what would be a catastrophic setback for McCain’s hopes nationally. Obama built a statewide organization in advance of his 56 percent to 42 percent Democratic primary win over Clinton on May 6, in which he was boosted by a black constituency that makes up a bit more than a fifth of the state’s population. McCain, who coasted to a 74 percent win in a primary two months after he had clinched the nomination, was in midsummer still coordinating his North Carolina campaign out of a regional office in Tallahassee, Fla.

Click here for the whole thing.

PPP says Greensboro Democrat Kay Hagan has a small lead in her U.S. Senate campaign against incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole.

PPP’s Tom Jensen chalks the numbers up to the DSCC smacking Dole around with negative ads, which certainly makes sense. I would add to that the national Republicans basically punting on NC as contributing. Without their ads, there’s no counterweight to the DSCC ads.

But I’m suspicious of the numbers, as am of all poll numbers at this point. I think the far better reads will come in a couple weeks after both parties have ended their convention and there’s not so much noise in the political system. Still, this has to ad fuel to Hagan’s fundraising fire, letting her point to some numbers that shows she’s not only competitive but, by at least one measure, is winning.

A look at where some of the candidates on the Guilford County ballot are in the next few days:

TODAY
U.S. Senate candidate Kay Hagan
10:30 a.m.: News conference on crime and gang violence. Several Charlotte officials plan to endorse her. Mecklenburg County Historical Courthouse, 700 E. Trade St., Charlotte.
1:45 p.m.: Addresses a meeting of the N.C. Correctional Association. N.C. Cooperative Extension, Randolph County Center, 112 West Walker Ave., Asheboro.

Gubernatorial candidate Pat McCrory
11 a.m.: Speaks at the N.C. Association of County Commissioners annual conference. New Bern Riverfront Convention Center, Colonial Capital Ballroom A, 203 South Front St., New Bern.

Gubernatorial candidate Bev Perdue
4 p.m.: Speaks at the N.C. Association of County Commissioners annual conference. New Bern Riverfront Convention Center, Colonial Capital Ballroom A, 203 South Front St., New Bern.

U.S. House District Rep. Brad Miller
12:30 p.m.: Gives keynote speech at the Kiwanis Club Luncheon. Highland United Methodist Church, 1901 Ridge Road, Raleigh.

SATURDAY
U.S. Senate candidate Kay Hagan
11:30 a.m.: Attending an open house at her campaign headquarters, 700 N. Eugene St., Greensboro.
2 p.m.: Participates in a crime and gangs round-table. N.C. Central University, Whiting Justice Building, Room 324, Corner of Nelson and Lincoln Street, Durham.

SUNDAY
Gubernatorial candidate Pat McCrory
2 p.m.: Attends Alamance County Republican Party Headquarters grand opening, 16 Northeast Court Square, Graham.
6 p.m.: Speaks to the Greater Greensboro Republican Women’s Club, Starmount Forest Country Club, One Sam Snead Dr., Greensboro.

UPDATE: Adds Hagan's open house on Saturday and McCrory's events Sunday; removes Thursday's events.

So state Sen. Kay Hagan, a Greensboro Democrat, has a new television commercial out in her campaign against Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole. Her campaign folks have billed it as her first television commercial of the fall campaign, which is true enough if you don't count the third party attack ads that have been running against Dole.

If you listen to the ad, you’ll heard that Hagan was one who helped “Balance five state budgets in a row.”

Aside from the tortured grammar, you might also remember that the state constitution requires North Carolina’s budget to be balanced. So laying claim to a balanced budget is a bit silly because all of North Carolina’s budgets are required to be balanced or the governor balances them for you.

Speaking of that: Hagan was in the Senate when it drafted budgets in 2000 and 2001 that were a bit overly optimistic in terms of revenue growth. That forced Gov. Mike Easley to take some unpopular steps like confiscating local revenues and pinching money from state retirement funds.

As for the rest of the ad, Republicans will probably scoff a bit at the “reaching across party lines” thing, but Hagan can show enough cooperation with others to back that one up. And state budgets did indeed expand funding for early childhood education and raise teacher pay while she was in the legislature.

Cross-posted from Capital Beat.

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-

I spent some time researching and writing on energy policy in the U.S. Senate race this week. For those who might have forgotten, your players are incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole, Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan and Libertarian Chistopher Cole.

Click here for Sunday's story on the energy policy debate.

And click here to read the graphic that accompanies the story in the Sunday paper. (PDF)
Both Hagan and Dole did events this week where they talked energy policy. Dole visited with the Chamber of Commerce down in Lincolnton to chat about economic issues, which pretty much is headlined by gas prices and energy policy these days. Hagan visited the wind power demonstration site run by Appalachian State, wanting to highlight her commitment to non-petroleum energy sources.

Click here to listen to a portion of my conversation with Dole. We start out talking nuclear and end up on her telling how she went about turning the lights off in her hotel room that morning.

To read more from Dole on energy policy:

• * a recent blog post laying out some ideas. She also includes some bullet points on energy in her economic security plan.

• * a floor statement from July 23 on energy policy.

• * A June 4 floor statement on the climate security act.

• * more from Dole’s Senate office.

Click here to listen to a portion of my conversation with Hagan. We were talking at the top of Beech Mountain standing under the wind turbines, so I apologize for the wind blowing in your ear during this clip.

For more from Hagan on energy policy:

• * This is her campaign’s energy plan.

• * Back during the primary, Hagan put a campaign ad on the air concerning energy:

Cole isn’t on the campaign stump regularly, but did send along an e-mail after we chatted over the phone, highlighting his differences with the other two candidates. I’ll paste that after the jump.

And of course, your thoughts are welcome at the comments link.

For those who love them a political gimmick:

GREENSBORO, N.C. – State Senator and U.S. Senate Candidate Kay Hagan (D-Guilford) will be at Steve’s Friendly BP gas station in Greensboro on Friday to meet consumers and talk to them about how current gas prices are affecting their families and their budgets. This is Kay’s third gas station stop; she has already spoken with drivers in Raleigh and Wilmington. Kay has also released a comprehensive energy plan that calls for creating clean, green jobs in North Carolina, increased fuel economy standards, and reducing America’s dependence on foreign oil.

A gallon of gas is currently $4.11 per gallon nationwide. When Elizabeth Dole took office in 2003, the average price of gas was $1.52 per gallon.

FRIDAY
WHO: State Senator and U.S. Senate Candidate Kay Hagan (D-Guilford)
WHAT: Kay meets consumers at a local gas station to discuss the effects of high gas prices
WHERE: Steve’s Friendly BP, 603 Green Valley Rd, Greensboro
WHEN: 12:00 noon, Friday, July 10

The U.S. Senate race here in North Carolina officially has the third with the addition of Libertarian Chris Cole.

The NC GOP sent this press release last week, claiming that Democrat Kay Hagan had taken $185,000 in illegal campaign contributions in her bid to unseat Republican Elizabeth Dole.

After reading the news release, the complaint and the backup material, I used the Monday Inside Scoop column to explore the claim. Here is the upshot from CRP:

Massie Ritsch, with the Center for Responsive Politics, more tactfully pointed out that husbands and wives who shared a bank account were allowed to give at the same time on the same check.

"This is an accounting complaint that appears to be geared more toward getting attention than getting enforcement," Ritsch said.

CQ Politics has up what may be a very serviceable profile of North Carolina's U.S. Senate race but I kind of tuned out after this graph:

Hagen spokeswoman Colleen Flanagan asserts that, while costly, the primary gave Hagan an opportunity to introduce herself to voters statewide and made her a more recognized figure. She also is now free to campaign full-time, as the state Senate’s annual session ended last week. This opens up her schedule after weeks of legislating during the week and campaigning on the weekends, with a focus on grass-roots events at local establishments such as diners and lunch counters.

First off, there's a pretty simple fact error here, which is the General Assembly is still in session. (And legislative historians would probably be troubled by the use of "Senate Session," since the House and Senate generally are tied at the hip in terms of adjournment, but I digress.)

It also ignores the fact that Hagan has not been completely constrained by the legislative session. She gave up her leadership post as a budget writer earlier this year. And a quick check of her votes shows some "excused absences" for less exciting days on the legislative calendar. (That said, I have seen her at some committee meetings, so she's not taking a pass on the whole session.)

And the CQ piece fails to note the real handicap of the legislature being in session. Legislators are prohibited from taking money from lobbyists or their principals during a legislative session. That may not sound like a big deal, until you think about the fact that just about every deep-pocketed interest in the state has a lobbyist for something or other.

From today's paper, a story on the immigration discussion between U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole and challenger Kay Hagan:

Some of the loudest opening salvos of the U.S. Senate campaign have focused on illegal immigration, an emotionally charged issue that has been the subject of stalled legislative efforts at the federal and state levels.

Both Sen. Elizabeth Dole, the Republican incumbent running for a second term, and Kay Hagan, a Democratic state senator hoping to win a seat once occupied by Jesse Helms, have spoken about the need for stricter enforcement of immigration laws.

"Most of us in the immigration movement were pretty cognizant that this would be one of the most contentious issues in the campaign and that it would not be in our favor," said Irene Godinez, advocacy director for El Pueblo, a group that lobbies on behalf of issues concerning the Latino community.

Click here for the whole thing.

I'll be trucking on down to the coast Saturday to write about the U.S. Senate and Gubernatorial debates hosted by the Bar Association . If you don't want to settle for my pithy prose or hacky multi-media efforts, you can catch them for yourself on Saturday courtesy of
News 14, which Time Warner subscribers get. From the channel's release:

Raleigh, NC (June 16, 2008) – News 14 Carolina, Time Warner Cable’s 24-hour local news network, will televise the first debates between the major candidates for Governor and U.S. Senate.

The first joint appearance of the two major party candidates for both offices is June 21st at the meeting of the North Carolina Bar Association in Atlantic Beach. Beverly Purdue, Pat McCrory, Elizabeth Dole and Kay Hagan will respond to questions from a media panel in two separate 45 minute forums.

News 14 Carolina will record both forums and televise them Sunday, June 22nd. The Gubernatorial forum will air at 11 am. The U.S. Senate forum will air at 1 pm.

Both forums will then be available on-demand to Time Warner Cable digital subscribers on Carolina on Demand. Carolina on Demand is a free, exclusive service of Time Warner Cable on channel 1234. It features news, sports and entertainment programming produced in and about North and South Carolina.

News 14 Carolina is sharing its coverage of the forums with UNC-TV. This will make them available to non-cable subscribers across North Carolina. “Time Warner Cable is dedicated to providing all citizens of our state with the information they need to make informed choices at the polls,” says News 14 Carolina VP & General Manager, Alan Mason. “We are pleased UNC-TV will telecast our coverage of this important event on its digital service across North Carolina.”

About News 14 Carolina:

News 14 Carolina is an exclusive service of Time Warner Cable. News 14 Carolina is available to all 1.3 million Time Warner Cable subscribers in the Charlotte, Raleigh/Durham/Fayetteville and Greensboro/High Point/Winston-Salem television markets. News 14 Carolina will expand to the Wilmington, Morehead City and Jacksonville area on August 18.

About Time Warner Cable:
Time Warner Cable is the second-largest cable operator in the U.S., with technologically advanced, well-clustered systems located mainly in five geographic areas — New York state (including New York City), the Carolinas, Ohio, southern California (including Los Angeles) and Texas. As of December 31, 2007, Time Warner Cable served approximately 14.6 million customers who subscribed to one or more of its video, high-speed data and voice services.

Despite a sagging poll number, state Sen. Kay Hagan gets a shout out from the Washington Post blog "The Fix," which bumped her up a spot in their rankings of the most competitive U.S. Senate campaigns:

8. North Carolina (R): Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) knows she is in for a very tough race against state Sen. Kay Hagan (D). Witness her decision to begin running ads in recent days that tout her ability to deliver for the state -- ads that never make mention of her party affiliation or President George W. Bush. It's a sound strategy in such a difficult political environment, but you can bet Hagan and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee will do their darndest to ensure every voter in the state knows Dole voted with Bush more than 90 percent of the time in her first term. Having now met Hagan in person, we can testify that she is a talented candidate and, as a woman, will be in a better position than 2002 nominee Erskine Bowles to attack Dole aggressively. (Previous ranking: 9)

Rasmussen Reports says their latest survey shows Republican Elizabeth Dole opening up a wider lead over Democrat Kay Hagan in the U.S. Senate race. From their webiste:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in North Carolina shows Dole attracting 53% of the vote while Hagan, a state Senator from Greensboro, earns support from 39%. The current results are almost identical to the results from two months ago. In between, however, a bounce from her victory in the Democratic Primary pulled Hagan to a tie with Dole.

Dole now leads by nineteen points among women while Dole and by nine among men. Dole attracts 90% of the Republican vote and holds an eighteen point lead among unaffiliated voters. Hagan is supported by 68% of Democrats.

Dole is viewed favorably by 62% of the state’s voters, Hagan by 45%. For Dole, that’s a six-point improvement over the past month. For Hagan, it’s an eight-point decline. Some local observers say a television ad launched by the Dole campaign has been particularly effective.

My 5-cent take would be Dole has gotten a bump from going on the ad with two television commercials.

Related: Rasmussen says the presidential contest in North Carolina is closer than the Senate race.

Sen. Barack Obama's N.C. appearance this Monday has folks chewing on this question: what exactly is he up to? Does one of the Senate's most liberal/progressive members think he's going to turn a reliably red state blue? Or is this some sort of campaign head fake, a quick dodge to confuse the opposition while he breaks the other way?

A New York Times story offers one of several possible explanations. I say one of several because I think if you polled the heart-of-hearts of 10 Obama campaign strategists, you might just get three or four different answers.

But this story suggests that North Carolina could be a sort of holding action, designed to cause attrition on the other side as much as score a full on victory. From the second half of the story:

Mr. Obama's aides said some states where they intend to campaign - like Georgia, Missouri, Montana and North Carolina — might ultimately be too red to turn blue. But the result of making an effort there could force Mr. McCain to spend money or send him to campaign in what should be safe ground, rather than using those resources in states like Ohio.

Mr. Obama's campaign manager, David Plouffe, said that the primary contest had left the campaign with strong get-out-the-vote operations in Republican states that were small enough that better-than-usual turnout could make a difference in the general election. Among those he pointed to was Alaska, which last voted for a Democrat in 1964.

"Do we have to win any of those to get to 270?" Mr. Plouffe said, referring to the number of electoral votes needed to win the election. "No. Do we have reason to think we can be competitive there? Yes. Do we have organizations in those states to be competitive? Yes. This is where the primary was really helpful to us now."

I don't know if a state where you've had a Democratic governor 16 years running and nearly unhindered control of the Democratic legislature for nigh on a century really qualifies as "too red," but one can't ignore the last 30-plus years of Tar Heels voting for Republican presidential candidates in the general election.

Curiously, I've heard similar theories about Congressional and Senate campaigns. National or state strategists will look for credible, well funded challengers who might not have enough electoral oomph to win but can keep the incumbent pinned down.

I would think that is one reason Democrat Kay Hagan's race against Republican U.S. Senate incumbent Elizabeth Dole is getting so much attention. Not only is there the primary objective of winning a seat in the Senate that could help secure the 60-40 majority that Democrats fervently desire, but there's a secondary benefit. Even if Hagan loses, if she runs a good campaign she'll keep Dole pinned down rather than letting her jet about the United States helping out other Republicans.

Now, no campaign ever - EVER - will say they're playing for a loss. They'd be dumb to and frankly, you can't run expecting to lose. So I would expect that Hagan's folks will be quick to say something like, "What, are you stupid? Look at the polling. She can win this thing." Likewise, I would doubt you're ever going to see a direct quote from Obama's folks saying they expect the campaign in North Carolina to be anything other than a success.

One wonders what the national press might actually accomplish if they invested the energy they spend on speculating about North Carolina's political competitiveness into covering the state.

But I'm told I'm in a cranky mood this morning.

At any rate, Atlantic political blogger Marc Ambinder gives his take:

NORTH CAROLINA - Democrats insist that this race will competitive and that Kay Hagan will, even if she doesn’t beat Sen. Elizabeth Dole, come within a few points. Watch for both parties to put money into the race. Prediction: if the presidential race is somehow competitive in NC, the Senate race will be, too.

Your own insightful commentary welcome in the comment links.

U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole and state Sen. Kay Hagan have been getting their campaigns on and will have some big-time political figures coming in to help them out over the next few days.

For Dole, former Gov. Mike Huckabee will be in town Friday and Saturday. On Friday, the two are due to stump together in the Charlotte area, according to Dole's campaign.

Then on Saturday, Huckabee is due to speak at the N.C. Republicans state convention around noon time. Dole's folks say he'll be meeting and greeting on behalf of Dole earlier that morning, from 8 a.m. to 9 a.m.

On Monday, Hagan will have Sens. Claire McCaskill of Missouri and John Tester of Montana in town for a fundraiser.

It's worth noting that both McCaskill and Tester are superdelegates to the Democratic Convention who have declared for Obama. Tester is a more recent convert to the cause - taking sides only after his state's primary - but McCaskill came to North Carolina to stump for Obama and got involved in the blow-up over the gas tax.

Update: Former Gov. Jim Hunt is also on board for the Monday fundraiser. He's been on record as a Hagan supporter since the beginning of the campaign.

This latest news release from Sen. Kay Hagan's campaign provides more fodder to throw on the exactly-how-close-is-the-Hagan-Dole-race pile:

GREENSBORO, N.C. – State Senator and U.S. Senate Nominee Kay Hagan (D-Guilford) is within striking distance of incumbent Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole, according to an internal poll, the details of which were released by Kay’s campaign. More importantly, support for the one-term Senator is soft, and Kay has much more room to grow than Dole.

The poll shows Kay with 44 percent in an initial head to head matchup against the first term legislator, while Dole polls at 48 percent. The difference is well within the poll's margin of error, and confirms the results from four independent polls depicting the race as one of the most competitive in the 2008 cycle.

"This poll confirms what we have been hearing all across the state -- North Carolina needs new leadership in Washington, and while Elizabeth Dole is a nice person, she's not an effective leader," said Hagan Communications Director Colleen Flanagan. "Elizabeth Dole is vulnerable because on issue after issue, she has sided with lobbyists and their special interests, failed to achieve any real legislative success, and played partisan politics to the determent of North Carolinians."

A majority of voters in this poll confirmed what Kay and her campaign has been hearing all across the state - voters know that Dole hasn't been working for them, she's been working for Bush and the special interests, and it's time for new leadership in Washington.

While Dole possesses nearly universal name recognition, the poll indicates that Dole’s support is soft, with only 48% of respondents saying they would vote to reelect her. "There are few voters who don’t already know [Dole], making it difficult for her to expand her support," wrote Kay’s pollsters John Anzalone and Jeff Liszt in the polling memo. In addition, her favorable/unfavorable ratio was less than 2:1, a telling statistic for an incumbent.

"Even more telling than how competitive this race is, is how much support Kay receives once voters know more about her and her record of results in North Carolina," Flanagan said. "Our vigorous campaign schedule and grassroots activities like canvassing, phonebanking, creating a statewide network of all-volunteer county and campus captains will only help to spread the word about Kay and her ideas to help fix what’s broken in Washington."

The poll surveyed 800 likely 2008 general election voters in North Carolina and was conducted May 14-21 by Anzalone-Liszt Research. The margin of error of the poll was ±3.5%.

State Sen. Kay Hagan, a Greensboro, is running to unseat Republican U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole, who has made immigration a big part of her campaign.

Today, Hagan did a round-table program with sheriffs in Raleigh about the 287(g) program, which gives local agencies the ability to ask prisoners if they're legal and start deportation proceedings.

For a story I wrote a few months ago, Hagan said:

Hagan said the federal government needed to ramp up its enforcement, both at the borders and ports of entry and in communities. She said the program allowing local sheriff s to enforce immigration laws - a program favored by Dole - should be replaced by more federal enforcement. And she said the needs of businesses in North Carolina that use seasonal workers need to be taken into account in whatever program is pursued.

Hagan backed off that skepticism a bit today, saying that 287(g) was fine, but it should be paid for by the federal government. Here's a video of her answer:

From our friends at the Associated Press:

CARY, N.C. (AP) _ North Carolina's two major-party candidates for U.S. Senate have agreed to meet in their first forum of the general election race.

The campaigns for Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole and Democratic challenger Kay Hagan confirmed Thursday they will attend the North Carolina Bar Association forum on June 21 in Atlantic Beach.

Hagan and Dole both rolled to victory in their respective primary elections two weeks ago.

Bar association spokesman Russell Rawlings said questions will be asked by a media panel.

I've been pondering the U.S. Senate race between state Sen. Kay Hagan and Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole.

This pondering has been fueled by a few polls, including:

• * A Rasmussen poll put Hagan up 48 percent to Dole's 47 percent. "Any incumbent who polls below 50% early in the campaign cycle is considered potentially vulnerable. Dole is far from the only Republican incumbent in that position this year."

• * Public Policy Polling puts Dole up over Hagan, 48-43. "Hagan is winning big among voters whose top issues are the economy (51-39) and the war (57-36.) Those are the biggest issues for voters in the state, but Dole leads by even larger margins on wedge issues like immigration (89-8) and moral and family values (82-10)."

So then news came that Dole is changing up her campaign staff and this caused some folks to speculate it might have something to do with the polls.

Frankly, this development doesn't get me too charged up. 'Tis the season to pick up spare players from campaigns that didn't make the cut. Dole was picking up, not cutting talent. And Mark Stephens is still on board as a strategist.

Outside of that specific instance, folks like Cone have been wondering why this hasn't been universally embraced as a hot race.

While the Washington Post's Chris Cillizza puts the race in his list of 10 to watch, the McClatchy Washington staff is less impressed.

I have to admit to being conflicted about this race. I have reporter friends who are convinced Hagan is walking into a loosing battle. And when I suggest that's maybe not the case, the looks coming my way suggest I'm a homer in the same way Cubs fans are convinced "this is the year" to win the series - every year.

So how to break down this race?

The starting point is we have a well-known incumbent with not unreasonable favorables running in an environment that she herself has called dangerous.

There are a few arguments for thinking Hagan's really out to the fast start that the polls suggest:

• * The primary wrestling match with Jim Neal got her name out there without doing a lot of damage. Right now, name recognition is the commodity that Hagan needs more than anything else and the primary helped her there.

• * Hagan has some level of backing from the national Democratic Party machine. That backing was in evidence in the primary. If it sticks with her and is deep enough (read: dumps in enough money and talent) this will certainly help.

• * President Bush's job approval is in the can, the war in Iraq is deeply unpopular, the economy has not been doing well and Dole is seen as a close ally of the president. Expect Hagan to do all she can to tie remind voters of the connections between the two.

• * Hagan is part of the Basnight fraternity. Senate President Pro Temp has groomed a cadre of statewide candidates running, including Hagan. Basnight might be a bit distracted this year keeping his majority in the state Senate, but his backing is meaningful.

• * Hagan doesn't have an unreasonable political pedigree and resume to run on. She's known as an effective state senator who has been in elected office for nearly a decade and whose family - former Florida Sen. Lawton Chiles - has been in big-time politics as well.

But before folks start getting too fuzzy with excitement about how competitive this race may or may not be, the other side of the equation needs a look. In that column:

• * Dole is an incumbent and that's not anything to be scoffed at. I've talked with some political observers who don't think Dole has maximized her incumbency as much as she could have in terms of cutting ribbons, announcing projects, being visible, etc... My take is she's done enough, and she's been paying attention to smaller media markets in rural areas.

• * Dole has got bucks - $3.2 million on hand through the first quarter without breaking a sweat or having a primary to speak of. Hagan is in full-on fundraising mode and her primary victory will help bring in money. But she's starting from a disadvantage.

• * Dole has been building her cred on a key campaign issue for a few months. She's been talking immigration, a potential wedge issue. Although her talks have been more policy than rhetoric, it's clear she plans to campaign on it.

• * Dole has yet to let slip the dogs of war. Her campaign machine may have started its engine, but it's just pulling out of the driveway and getting ready to throw into traffic. I'll be a lot more impressed with the polls once Dole starts hitting Hagan.

• * It's the summer. North Carolina is slooooowly letting go its breath after the primary. Folks are getting ready to head out on vacation, pols are turning their attention to the legislative session and heck, the major networks have their season-ending episodes on the television-box. Yes it's a political year, but attention on campaigns ebbs and flows. If you're not running for a job that involves getting new digs at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, now is an ebb time. Attention will come back in August when the bulk of children get back in school. I'll be looking at those August and September polls for more reliable indicators.

Beyond that, there are several x-factors that have yet to play themselves out in advance of the fall election. If Obama remains the nominee, does this help Hagan? Will the gay marriage ruling in California mobilize conservatives? What will be happening in Iraq? Will the economy take a stab at recovery?

So let's get down to it: Is North Carolina's a competitive Senate election or not? Let me put it this way: Hagan is a smart, operating in an environment that Democrats should be able to exploit and both big and small liberal money will salivate at the chance to take a big swing at Dole.

You'd be foolish at this point to write either side off, so yes, ladies and gents; we have a race on our hands.

Put this under the category of actually needing to know something about the candidate you are promoting.

The DSSC is all fuzzy with excitement that state Sen. Kay Hagan, a Democrat, is running to take on Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole this fall. So they sent out an e-mail to supports asking for funds to mount the campaign.

Nothing wrong with that.

But then there was this line:

"Unlike Dole, Hagan is a life-long resident of North Carolina. She raised her three kids in Raleigh and was active in the business and civic community there."

Well, no and no.

Hagan was born in North Carolina but her family moved out of state and she did the bulk of her growing up in Lakeland, Fla. She did return to the state for Law School.

And Hagan lives in Greensboro and her kids went to school in Greensboro and the senate district she represented is - say it with me - based in Greensboro.

To be fair, the rest of the e-mail seems to comport more with reality.

Full disclosure: The person who tipped me off here was a member of the Dole organization who is a little irked at Hagan's whole "I want to give Miss Liddy Dole a pair of ruby-red slippers..." line, designed to tag Dole as a carpet-bagger. Hagan, the person pointed out, spent some time away from the state as well.

From the AP at 10:45 p.m.
2,104 of 2,817 precincts - 75 percent

x-Kay Hagan 646,949 - 61 percent
Jim Neal 196,328 - 18 percent
Marcus Williams 125,212 - 12 percent
Howard Staley 46,754 - 4 percent
Duskin Lassiter 46,398 - 4 percent

Click here for rough (no mic and lots of camera/notebook noise) audio of Kay Hagan speaking at the Old Guilford County Courthouse Tuesday night.

A couple of folks who follow politics from a LGBT perspective have written about the non-endorsement of Human Rights Campaign, a political action committee that advocates on behalf of gay causes and candidates, in the U.S. Senate race between Chapel Hill investment advisor Jim Neal and State Sen. Kay Hagan.

From a Washington Blade writer by way of the Southern Voice website:

Joe Solmonese, HRC president, said the organization would wait until after North Carolina holds its primary May 6 before endorsing Neal or his main primary opponent, veteran state Sen. Kay Hagan.

"She has a good record," he said. "It's a tough race to call in terms of the primary, and so I think, you know, our community down there — sometimes sitting here in Washington, Jim Neal is certainly someone who a lot of people have really been following here in Washington as an openly gay candidate, but our community down in North Carolina is really rather split between him and Kay Hagan. So we’ve got another ... couple of weeks, and we're going to wait and see who the nominee is before we make a decision there."

Click here for the full take.

This prompted HuffPo Blogger Howie Klein to write:

But it was a Senate race they chose to ignore that is the most shocking and disappointing element of their announcement today. North Carolina has two extreme right wing senators, Elizabeth Dole and Richard Burr, each of whom can always be counted on to do whatever they can to make the lives of gay men and women less palatable and less safe. One, Elizabeth Dole, is up for re-election in November. There are two Democrats in a neck and neck primary battle to take her on, Republican-lite establishment-backed Kay Hagan and grassroots progressive Jim Neal ... Yes, one of the first times that an uncloseted gay man is running for the U.S. Senate -- in a race he can win -- and HRC is... abstaining.

Click here for the full take.

I don't know that the HRC endorsement would have carried a lot of vote in North Carolina, but Neal certainly could have used the fundraising boost.

From today's paper: a look at the Democratic primary for governor. Previously: the Republicans.

Here's more on the the tv ad by the GOP. You know the one. It'll begin airing Monday.

The bad news, you're behind in the polls and fundraising in the U.S. Senate race. The good news: you have the money for a heck of a party. Our editorial page has made an endorsement in the race.

Coming this week: Presidential candidates are back in town. Hillary Clinton will be at a fundraiser in Greensboro Monday. and Barack Obama will be in Winston-Salem Tuesday.

Jim Neal tells Blue NC there will be a debate in the U.S. Senate race. Will let you know when I get confirmation from the Hagan folks.

Date would be April 29 right here in Greensboro.

According to Public Policy Polling, state Sen. Kay Hagan is pulling away from her main rival in the Democratic primary, Chapel Hill investment banker Jim Neal.

I've written before that I'm troubled by the discrepancy between PPP's numbers and Survey USA's.

However, what's on display here is a trend. While the absolute numbers may or may not be on track, it's clear that Hagan is gaining in name recognition and voter opinion while the other candidates in the race are standing still. This is almost certainly a product of her putting two commercials on the television box.

With 15 days before the election, if Neal is going to make a move, particularly on-air, now is the time.

Public opinion surveys have been listing the economy, war in Iraq and gas prices among top issues of concern for voters. But in her speech at the Civitas shindig in Greensboro, U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole offered up another:

"Probably the issue I've heard the most about because people I've heard from all agree, is immigration. I have more folks tell me how fed up they are with our immigration system, our laws, and with Washington's failure to secure our boarders and enforce our immigration laws..."

Dole talked up her efforts to shoot down the Congressional immigration compromise last summer, saying that it's "amnesty" provisions made it unacceptable.

The amount of time she spent on the topic made me think I was seeing a preview of her stump speech for the fall campaign.

A final note on her speech. Dole brought up the idea of drilling for oil in Alaska National Wildlife Refuge, which at one point was quite the political battle.

"Ladies and Gentlemen, for the life of me, I cannot understand why we cannot get the support that we need - we were almost there at one point - to drill in ANWR in Alaska. Here's this frozen tundra thousands of miles away. It's 2,000 acres out of 19 million acres and the Alaskans want it ... So this is a national security issue and the extreme environmentalists need to understand that, don't they. They need to understand that."

She got big applause off those lines.

The Republican candidates for governor were debating at the Civitas shindig in Greensboro Friday night. After, U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole addressed the folks at the Conservative Leadership Conference.

Dole spent a lot of time on immigration, talking up the 287(g) program and her efforts to shoot down the immigration bill that was heading through Congress last year.

Dole, who faces re-election this year, told the audience that this was a "dangerous" election:

"We've got critically important races, from the White House, to the Congressional races, to my own Senate race where they're trying to get a filibuster proof Senate ... which means everything then can go zipping through and we won't be able stop the bad stuff - talk about tax increases and labor issues and all the rest. And of course, the gubernatorial race, and we have outstanding candidates...

"In my view, we always say each cycle is a tough cycle. Well folks, this one is a dangerous cycle. This is dangerous. And we have got to really get out there and do everything in our power to make sure we're able to move forward these great candidates who are running.

Congressman Howard Coble was on hand as well.

More from our editorial board's interview with the Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate.

Hagan was asked about RF Micro Devices, a local company that has gotten state and local economic incentives but sent 80 jobs to China this week. (They still have close to 2,000 jobs here in North Carolina.)

"Maybe we ought to be lowering the corporate income tax so that more companies would actually come here. That's something on a state level. But on a federal level, I think any trade policy we do going forward, it's got to be fair to the companies here in North Carolina. By that, you've got to have environment protections and labor protections that are enforceable..."

During his segment, Neal talked more broadly about economic policy, and reacted to Hagan's mention of state tax breaks.

"Right now, the old model of cutting taxes and having that basically benefit the common good is not working, it's broken...We have a finite amount of resources in this country..."

Click here to listen to the full exchange on the economy. It's long, about 15 minutes. Hagan is at the beginning and Neal is at the end. Duskin Lassiter and Marcus Williams weigh in between them.

The News & Record's editorial board held a group interview with the Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate today. I sit in on some of these types of interviews on the off chance they make news.

State Sen. Kay Hagan, Chapel Hill investment advisor Jim Neal, lawyer Marcus Williams and trucker Duskin Lassiter showed. Podiatrist Howard Staley was invited but did not come.

There were some pretty sharp differences on display, including in answer to a question on the war in Iraq. Editorial Writer Doug Clark asked how the candidates would deal with a President John McCain administration that wanted to keep troops in Iraq passed when Democrats would want.

Neal said: "I will not vote for any further funding for the war until such time as the administration ... has come to the negotiating table with the Congress." He said those negotiations would include a timetable for withdrawal. The actual withdrawal, he said, should be left to military commanders to manage.

Hagan said: "I would never use the funding of the military as a political tool." Hagan said she would hold hearings and begin managing the federal budget more responsibly.

You can listen to the full exchange among all four candidates by clicking here.

Chapel Hill investment advisor Jim Neal's campaign got a shout out Howie Klein, a writer on HuffingtonPost.com. The post retraces the storyline of Neal as an outsider candidate who is opposed by the Democratic establishment:

Jim Neal is a Blue America-endorsed candidate who wants to take on Senator Dole in North Carolina. Although DSCC head Chuck Schumer claims, rather ingenuously, that he stays neutral in hotly contested primaries, there are at least two big ones this year where he is backing Insider Establishment candidates who give every indication that they will not support core Democratic initiatives.

Klein goes on to compare the U.S. Senate race here to the one in Kentucky.

For those following the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate race its front-runners, Kay Hagan of Greensboro and Jim Neal or Chapel Hill:

Has anyone surfed by the DSCC site for North Carolina lately? Not to put too fine a point on it, but they look to loving them some Kay Hagan. Check the news headlines in this screen capture (Click to enlarge):

It's all boosting Hagan and knocking Dole. Neal is relegated to the obligatory we're-not-really-choosing-sides-wink-wink sentence: "Jim Neal, Duskin Lassiter, Howard Staley and Marcus Williams are also vying for the Democratic nomination."

Youch.

-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-

If you're hoping to see a debate-ish looking thing among the candidates, the Orange County Democratic Party Forum on Sunday at 2 p.m. at the UNC School of Social Work Auditorium. Neal's folks say he's coming and Hagan has it on her campaign calendar.

-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-

Hagan has rejected a debate sponsored by WTVD in Durham, sending out this press release:

Kay Hagan for U.S. Senate Campaign Communications Director Colleen Flanagan today released the following statement with regards to the Democratic U.S. Senate debate proposed by Durham television station WTVD. WTVD has decided to only invite candidates who reached a minimum of 10% in their latest WTVD/SurveyUSA poll. In the past week, three separate polls have been released in this race, all three of which have State Senator and U.S. Senate Candidate Kay Hagan in the lead, but show varying results for her primary opponents.

"We have discussed the terms of the debate with WTVD, and while we would
have been happy to debate had all the candidates been invited, we do not
feel comfortable participating in a debate where some of the candidates
were excluded. As others have noted, in North Carolina, we have
primaries, not coronations, and it's inherently unfair for one polling
firm to determine which candidates voters get to hear from."

Neal's camp is all for this debate. My two cents as to what's going on here:

• - Neal wants the opportunity to ask some pointed questions about Hagan and go at it one-on-one. Also, a one-on-one debate would confirm his status as a co-front-runner.

• - Hagan has no interest in conferring co-front-runner status on Neal and, frankly, will probably do just as well not have the debate. (She's gone on air with TV commercials, so she doesn't need the exposure.) Being in a forum with all five candidates would let her put her policy lines out there without getting challenged to much.

• - Hey, it's WTVD's air. If they want to host and broadcast a debate they can set the terms. Frankly, I don't think it's all that unreasonable. See this post for my thoughts on determining front-runners.

Update: The Neal campaign just sent along the following:

Just days after going on the air with paid television ads, Senator Hagan has refused an invitation to debate from WTVD Eyewitness News. Her campaign can spin it any way they want but the truth is Senator Hagan refuses to debate the important issues facing North Carolina and the nation. Senator Hagan wants to buy this election with TV ads and avoid a real discussion. Senator Hagan’s campaign strategy is to raise more money, avoid legitimate debate and blanket the airwaves with television ads. It is the typical Washington politics-as-usual and it amounts to selling our elections to the highest bidder. Senator Hagan’s cynical and disingenuous refusal to debate flies in the face of her claim to be a candidate of change. Political candidates and elected officials are supposed to answer questions from, not dictate terms to, an independent news media. We’ve had enough of the latter from the Bush Administration.

A Survey USA Poll once again puts State Sen. Kay Hagan of Greensboro and Chapel Hill investment advisor Jim Neal in a dead heat.

And once again, that disagrees with the latest polling from PPP, which puts Hagan pretty far ahead.

I'm going to be watching a couple things in the polls going forward. First: are Hagan's ads making a bit of difference. I watch a lot of TV that polls like to advertise on (cheap cable time with wonky shows) and haven't seen one yet. One would expect that if her ads are making a dent, she should be able to break the tie Survey USA is finding.

And I want to see if Neal can widen his lead in the PPP poll over the other three male candidates in the race. He has kind of a problem on election day in that Hagan is the only female name on the ballot. So 1) her name is more district and easier to remember for folks who know "Oh, I like that lady in the race," and 2) she'll pick up people who vote for the woman in any race where they don't know anything else about the candidates. (Yes, that happens.) So Neal has a couple of structural things he needs to over come.

At this point, I'm not sure either poll can tell us very much. Both have large numbers of undecideds and there are tons of new voters registering.

Here's Kay Hagan's first television ad:

It's an upbeat affair, although manages to stay clear of any images that we scruffy media types might call "gauzy," the vogue code-word for sappy.

Looking over the script, there's really only one line where anyone could quibble with the facts: "And she brought change: raising the minimum wage, expanding health care, and strengthening local schools."

Expanding health care and strengthening local schools is a common claim for legislators. Since Hagan was part of the appropriations teams that wrote bills that did make health care coverage more widely available and did things like increase teacher salaries, she can lay claim to those as well as probably any one of 30 members of the General Assembly during the past 10 years.

"Raising the minimum wage" might be dicier and here's why: Within the General Assembly the House was the first chamber to really push for the minimum wage. And within the House, Rep. Alma Adams, who like Hagan is from Greensboro, was the recognized leader of the 2006 effort that was eventually successful.

When the measure crossed to the Senate, the chamber held the measure up as the state budget was negotiated. Essentially the minimum wage increase to $6.15 an hour seemed to be a barter item in the budget negotiations.

Also, when the Senate did finally get around to passing the minimum wage, there was some drama about instituting a "training wage," that would have been lower than the minimum. Hagan was among a number of Senate Commerce Committee members who initially voted for the training wage before reversing themselves under pressure from groups like the NAACP.

So if someone wanted to tug at the loose threads on that claim, they might get somewhere.

The Associated Press is reporting that U.S. Senate candidate and Greensboro State Sen. Kay Hagan will begin airing television ads on Wednesday.

"The ad is designed to introduce Hagan to the voters," the AP says.

Click here for another look at those fundraising numbers released by Hagan Thursday.

The best quote from the story came from Gary Pearce, a longtime Democratic political consultant, when asked about the significance of Hagan having $1 million: "My reaction to hearing she raised $1 million is that is it's bad news for Jim Neal but probably good news for (Sen. Elizabeth) Liddy Dole," Pearce said. "She's going to need a (heck) of a lot more money — $10 million, $11 million, $12 million — to unseat an incumbent U.S. senator."

Folks are hashingon over the meaning of all this at the Debatables blog. And click here for more from Winston-Salem.

From a news release sent by Kay Hagan's folks:

Kay Hagan’s U.S. Senate campaign today announced that it ended the first quarter of 2008 with more than $1 million cash on hand, after having raised $820,000 in the first three months of the year. Kay is running for the U.S. Senate against Elizabeth Dole.

That's enough money to do a little television advertising in the primary is she wants. Will check with the Neal folks on their fundraising success.

Update: The FEC has sent Hagan a love note asking for more information on her last campaign report. (PDF) The federal election regulators were apparently unhappy with the level of detail included on both those who gave Hagan money and how the campaign spent that money.

Update: A Hagan campaign spokeswoman points out that the Clinton and Obama presidential campaigns have had three of these letters a piece over the past 12 months. She said the campaign is working on tracking down the relevant information.

Real Clear Politics puts the N.C. Senate race in it's top-10 for competitiveness rankings for the first time. From the post:

10. North Carolina (R-Dole): Republican Elizabeth Dole has not had the easiest first term on record. Her stint as chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee was nothing short of disastrous, and though she has fundraised well, some believe she could be vulnerable, especially against a top-tier challenger. Democrats tried to woo Governor Mike Easley and his wife, Mary, but neither were interested. Instead, national strategists hope State Senator Kay Hagan makes it through the primary against investment banker Jim Neal. Hagan has raised good money and could at least keep Dole off the trail on behalf of other Republicans. Still, Hagan faces a serious uphill battle. (Last: Not ranked)

State Sen. Kay Hagan of Greensboro, a candidate for U.S. Senate, is doing a live blog over at Blue NC. Click here to tune in.

Here was the original thread by which readers originally submitted questions. The crowd over there seems to be a little restive.

Meanwhile, the other leading Democrat in the race, Jim Neal, has been talking up a weekend encounter over at Daily Kos.

-=-=-=-=-=-=

From the live blogging session:

On earmarks, Hagan wrote: "When I’m in the U.S. Senate, I pledge to post the earmarks I obtain for North Carolina on my website. Furthermore, I believe we need to have an open, transparent system that allows sunshine into the process. Advocating on behalf of your district or state is what you’re elected to do; funding a ‘Bridge to Nowhere’ is not. Special interests projects like $13.5 million for the World Toilet Summit has no business in our federal budget."

Profiles in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate:

Click here for State Sen. Kay Hagan, of Greensboro. Click here for slide show with audio.

Click here for Investment advisor Jim Neal, of Chapel Hill. Click here for slide show with audio.

The good folks at Public Radio East held a candidates forum for the five Democrats running in the U.S. Senate race Friday. The winner will presumably face incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole this fall.

I'll post a link to my story for Saturday's paper when I get it. Update: Click here for Saturday's story.

If you didn't catch the debate live, the station says it will have a podcast up this weekend. In the house were State Sen. Kay Hagan of Greensboro, Chapel Hill investment advisor Jim Neal, Lexington trucking company owner Duskin Lassiter, Moncure podiatrist Howard Staley and Lumberton lawyer Marcus Williams.

And if you were to ask me who won, I'd probably say nobody. The format of the debate did not really let the candidates mix it up much or challenge one another. If you listened, though, you got a pretty good over-view of the candidates and where they stood.

In a story for Saturday's paper I wrote, "Hagan and Neal are the front-runners in the race by virtue of their campaign organizations, fund-raising and relatively widespread name recognition compared with the three other Democrats in the race."

Some of those advantages were on display Friday night. Both Hagan and Neal had at least a dozen supporters and staffers on site and both were a little bit more polished in their deliveries than the other three competitors.

Also, it was the Hagan and Neal campaigns that went to the trouble of spinning your humble correspondent following the debate. A sampling of the tit-for-tat:

Hagan's camp accused Neal of using notes during the 1 minute closing statement period.

Apparently, there was a rule that candidates weren't supposed to read from prepared remarks. However, they were allowed pad and paper. Neal apparently violated this rule, according to Hagan's folks. The forum organizers weren't sure.

The ref says: I'll leave that to you. I'm surprised they didn't complain more about the two or three times that Neal went over his allotted time during the debate, ignoring admonitions to be quiet.

Hagan's camp accused Neal of flip-flopping on Iraq.

Neal said something to the effect that he would let military commanders decide how best and quickly to withdraw troops. Hagan's press folks sent and e-mail saying this was a flip flop because he has said he was in favor of setting a 2008/09 withdrawal timeline.

The ref says: Neal was pretty clear that he wanted troops out of Iraq and was the only candidate to say he would vote to cut off funding for the war as a means of leverage over the White House.

Neal complained that Hagan insisted the Friday debate be shortened.

Neal complained that Hagan insisted the debate be shortened from 90 minutes to the hour format that eventually was conducted.

The ref says: The folks at Public Radio East confirmed that Hagan requested and got the format change.

More: The complaint fits in with a theme that Neal is developing, criticizing Hagan for not debating more.

After the jump: AP's quick take on Friday's events.

So Public Policy Polling has new survey results on the N.C. Senate race. It shows State Sen. Kay Hagan of Greensboro with a 22 percent to 11 percent lead over Chapel Hill investment advisor Jim Neal

But an earlier poll by Survey USA had Neal ahead 21-19 percent.

So what gives.

I'll take geography for $1,000 Alex.

This is a theory, and just a theory, but based on the cross tabs from the two polls I think it's a fair one.

The PPP survey breaks down and balances voters by area code. The Survey USA Poll breaks the state into three regions: "Charlotte & West," "Raleigh & Greensboro," and "South & Coast."

Without speaking to those other regions, Raleigh and Greensboro are different media markets, different mixes of voters, different ... well, just different. If the mix of voters inside this region was skewed, it could have de-emphasized Hagan's advantage in the Triad. Conversely, PPP's breakdown could over-emphasize it. I don't know enough about the two polls to say.

Of course, the disagreement between the two polls illustrate why we actually do the ballot rather than rely on surveys.

The one things that's pretty definitive: roughly half of voters don't know enough to choose among the candidates. That's something the eventual nominee will have to try and remedy before the General Election.

'Tis the season for political endorsements, and state Sen. Kay Hagan of Greensboro just landed one of the blue chips of the endorsement world. From a news release:

State Senator and U.S. Senate Candidate Kay Hagan (D-Guilford) today was endorsed by EMILY's List, the nation's largest political action committee and financial resource for women running for elective office. "Kay Hagan personifies the strength, experience and tenacity needed to change Washington and to bring North Carolina's priorities back from those of President Bush," said Ellen R. Malcolm, president of EMILY's List. "A no-nonsense legislator and accomplished businesswoman, Kay has proven herself as someone who delivers and has worked across party lines in the state Senate to enact critical legislation for North Carolinians. EMILY's List and its members are proud to support Kay Hagan in her efforts to bring a fresh and effective North Carolina voice to the U.S. Senate."

Okay, to be fair, there's no one else in the race the Emily's list was going to go near. There's no other female in the Democratic primary and Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole doesn't fit into the PAC's self-described mission to elected "pro-choice Democratic women."

Still, money and endorsements beget money and endorsements, particularly for a political candidate not well known outside her state senate district. This isn't so much an endorsement that will bring legions of voters or field workers. It's more like a Good Housekeeping Seal or Energy Star rating for political givers that says you can invest in the candidate without being worried they'll take some nutty position that'll have you asking for a refund.

U.S. Senate candidate Jim Neal, of Chapel Hill, picked up an endorsement from the Black Political Caucus of Charlotte-Mecklenburg today. Both he and Greensboro state Sen. Kay Hagan spoke to the group over the weekend. From Neal's news release:

Dwayne Collins, Chairman of the Black Political Caucus of Charlotte-Mecklenburg says, "The membership of the Black Political Caucus is proud to support Mr. Neal with our endorsement in the U.S. Senate race. We thought Jim is the ideal candidate to defeat Elizabeth Dole, and that is why we are behind his candidacy. He was the best candidate on the issues that affect all citizens, but especially members of the African American community. We look forward to working with Jim Neal to improve the lives of the human family of Charlotte and Mecklenburg County."

Neal has been working hard at cultivating support in the African American community. As an example, I'm told both by Neal and folks who were there that he was working the room pretty hard during the CIAA tournament earlier this year.

In other campaign news: Hagan's camp has announced they've "officially" re-launched her website. The re-launch actually happened on Friday but they sent out the news release today.

Jay Ovittore endorsed Senate candidate Jim Neal in a blog post on the BlueNC site. This is a bit of an internecine feuding. Ovittore is from Guilford County, as is state Sen. Kay Hagan, Neal's primary opposition in the primary.

From the post:

I have tried to work with both camps in the Senate race and the only one that will give me the time of day is Jim's. The straw that broke the camels back however, Kay Hagan will speak at one of my primary opponent's events. This is after pledging to help my campaign and never following through.

For those of you asking what sort of effect this sort of thing has, I don't know. Ovittore is not a well known commodity and it seems unlikely he's going to swing a lot of voters in state races. Still, he seems to be well-liked by some activists, so maybe those who were fence-sitting in the Senate race might be pushed over the Neal camp.

Just by way of information, the other candidates in Ovittore's primary - 6th Congressional District, now held by Rep. Howard Coble - are Teressa Sue Bratton and Johnny J. Carter. Hagan and Bratton seem to be on pretty good terms.

For those wondering, political consultants would agree with Ovittore when he starts out his post by saying he shouldn't be endorsing anyone. Candidates with their own primaries tend to stay out of one another's' primaries since they run the risk of hacking off potential friends and supporters. That's doubly true in the case of Hagan, who is by far the most influential sitting legislator from Guilford County and backed by a number of local politicos.

In the Democratic U.S. Senate primary, Chapel Hill investment advisor Jim Neal and Greensboro state Sen. Kay Hagan have played nice with each other in the press releases, mainly targeting their sharpest comments at Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole.

Looks like that's over.

Neal's campaign put out a news release titled "Where's Kay?" today. That echoes the regular stream of attack pieces that party organs have launched against Dole under the title "Where is Liddy?" ( Here too.)

I'm told by a Neal campaign staffer that was a "happy coincidence," but there you are. (Update: I'm told by the Hagan campaign that she has agreed to do the League of Women Voters forum, just confirming earlier this week.) From the release:

The people of North Carolina will have the opportunity to hear the views of all the Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate - all except for State Senator Kay Hagan.

Ms. Hagan has ignored the invitation from the League of Women Voters and Public Radio East to participate in the debate at Craven Community College in New Bern on Friday March 28 at 8 p.m. It will be broadcast on public radio stations statewide. The deadline for participating passed this week with no response from Hagan.

Jim Neal, the Chapel Hill businessman running for U.S. Senate, is calling on State Senator Hagan to participate in a series of six debates across the state in Charlotte, the Triangle, the Triad, Asheville, Fayetteville, and New Bern.

"These debates will give voters an opportunity to see who the Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate really are and what we believe. It seems Appropriations Chairwoman Hagan thinks this campaign is about calling in favors from high-dollar Capitol insiders to pay for carpet bombing the state with poll-tested political ads, but the people of North Carolina deserve better. They deserve a real discussion of the issues facing our state and our nation," Neal said.

Hagan's failure to appear at the New Bern debate is not Hagan's only rejection of an unscripted exchange before the voters.

Hagan has ignored requests for a debate sponsored by WTVD-TV ABC 11 Eyewitness News Raleigh-Durham.

That will sound kind of similar to folks following the Democrat gubenatorial primary, where Treasurer Richard Moore has accused Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue of ducking debates.

More news from the U.S. Senate Primary:

• * Hagan has a new website. Via Cone.
• * Dome says Hagan has a new Googlely ad.
• * PPP says Hagan is running a classic Washington media-blitz campaign while Neal is tapping grassroots.

Update: So after Neal's first news release goes out, Hagan's campaign says they are signed up for the Public Radio debate. Then comes this from Neal:

State Senator Kay Hagan has made another public about face. Her campaign is now saying she will join the Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate in a debate on March 28 - after failing to meet the deadline for the forum sponsored by the League of Women Voters and Public Radio East.

The Hagan campaign's assertion that she will participate in the debate came after the Jim Neal campaign revealed that Sen. Hagan failed to tell Public Radio East she would attend the debate. Her campaign web site does not list the debate at Craven Community College in its "Kay's Upcoming Events" section.

Sen. Hagan has also failed to respond to an invitation from WTVD-TV for a televised debate among the Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate.

Today is not the first time Senator Hagan has abruptly changed course.

Hagan, a chair of the state Senate Appropriations Committee, inexplicably entered the Senate race after publicly announcing she had no interest in challenging Elizabeth Dole for the U.S. Senate. (See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YHaauvJnNLA&feature=related

Jim Neal, the Chapel Hill businessman running for U.S. Senate, is calling on State Senator Hagan to participate in a series of six debates across the state in Charlotte, the Triangle, the Triad, Asheville, Fayetteville, and New Bern.

Still no word from Senator Hagan on that.

Update: And about five minutes after that second release from Neal hit my in box, this came from the Hagan campaign:

GREENSBORO, NC- State Senator and U.S. Senate Candidate Kay Hagan (D-Guilford) this weekend will continue traveling the state talking to voters in North Carolina who believe that Washington is broken and the state deserves new leadership in Washington which puts their needs first.

Kay will speak at the North Carolina Association of Educators annual meeting on Saturday in Fayetteville and then meet and greet voters in Clinton, Sanford and Asheboro later that day. On Sunday, Kay will head to Charlotte to speak to the Black Political Caucus of Charlotte-Mecklenburg.

Earlier this week Kay’s campaign confirmed her attendance at the League of Women Voters/Public Radio East Debate, scheduled for March 28 in New Bern, and also reached out to members of the African American community to propose a debate specifically addressing issues important to the African American community.

“It’s important to Kay to meet voters one-on-one and talk with them about the issues they feel are most important in this election, but Kay doesn’t feel that interaction should be limited to those people who can get themselves tickets to a debate,” said Communications Director Colleen Flanagan. “That’s why, in addition to debates, she’s out-and-about all over the state in the remaining weeks before the primary, talking to voters about the things in Washington they believe need fixing and how she’ll do that as a U.S. Senator.”

Who was it that said, "Now's the fun part?"

Ah, a statewide political campaign - how glamorous, right?

Sort of.

Tuesday night Chapel Hill investment advisor and U.S. Senate candidate Jim Neal visited local precinct meetings and other small gatherings in Davidson, Charlotte and the area. At these sorts of gatherings, a legit statewide candidate is a rock star of sorts. Everyone's happy to have the attention, wants to shake a hand, etc...

But there's the less glamorous, less public part of the day. Aside from doing media interviews with one of us scruffy media types (not me) this morning, Neal has spent a good deal of his day on the phone, chatting up donors. In this picture, he's working on a blog post, editing the rough draft a staff member sent along.

On the road, coffee shops (and anywhere else with free wireless access) become temporary offices. This one happens to be a Panera bread north of Charlotte.

By the way, that headset is attached to a fantastically dinged-up Blackberry, taped at the corners and scratched to high heaven.

This afternoon, he's is off to more interviews and more donor calls before doing some "meet-and-greets."

Neal's blog is here, although the post he was working on above isn't up as of this post.

State Sen. Kay Hagan recently did an interview with NBC17 about her Senate run. It looks like the station itself has posted it to the internet, so I have no guilt about sharing it with you.

Let me know what you think. The comment lines are open.

Sen. Elizabeth Dole's legislative press office just sent out this PDF which gives the senator's own rundown of what she did in 2007.

This is pretty much a "here's why you should vote to send me back to Washington" type of missive, fairly typical for any incumbent. It's also the type of document I would expect her political opponents to try and pick apart.

For example, listed as a "key accomplishment" was this:

Opposed Washington-Beaufort Counties site for a Navy outlying landing field and had funding for the OLF stripped from defense bills. Elizabeth Dole has stated that broad local support for an OLF is essential. She has assured North Carolinians and advised the Navy that she will oppose the Navy’s efforts to acquire any site in North Carolina that fails to meet this standard.

But those without long-term memory damage will recall articles and editorials like this one that my friend Scott Mooneyham wrote in early 2007:

North Carolina's two U.S. senators, Elizabeth Dole and Richard Burr, apparently don't want to insert politics into the process.

So, despite pressure from critics back home, neither has taken a stand on the Navy's plan to build a practice jet landing field near a pristine federal wildlife refuge in the eastern part of the state.

They haven't done so even though opposition to the Navy's plan is fierce among residents in Washington and Beaufort counties living near the proposed site.

Dole's supporters will argue that in the end she helped derail the project. Opponents will argue that she came in to shoot the wounded only after constituents complained loudly.

At any rate, a document like this gives a strong hint of the sort of things Dole will be running on come the General Election. Interestingly, I bet it also gives us a glimpse of the type of things that her opponent will try to chip away at as well. Speaking of "chip," here's another accomplishment that her eventual opponent will likely hammer away at:

Called for reauthorizing and responsibly expanding the State Children’s Health Insurance Program so that all eligible children in North Carolina are covered, and opposed a bill that would have disproportionately burdened North Carolina’s economy to fund the program. After this bill was twice vetoed, Dole successfully advocated for a long-term extension of SCHIP to end the uncertainty facing North Carolina and preserve coverage for children in our state. Elizabeth Dole continues to advocate for a bill to reauthorize and expand this valuable program in a way that truly helps, not hurts, North Carolina.

Democrats say that the Republican-lead resistance to the SCHIP expansion actually denies coverage to children who need help. And Sen. Kay Hagan, one of two Democratic front-runners, listed Dole's opposition to SCHIP expansion as a reason she got into the race.

John Ross Hendrix, a candidate for U.S. Senate as a Democrat, is dropping out of the primary and endorsing Jim Neal.

"I think Jim Neal can do an effective job," Hendrix said. "He has my full endorsement and support."

A major factor in his decision to drop out was a lack of fundraising support, Hendrix said.

Neal, a Chapel Hill investment banker, is one of two leading Democratic contenders. The other is Greensboro state Sen. Kay Hagan.

Hendrix said that endorsing Hagan was never an option in his mind.

"I examined Kay Hagan's record as a state senator early on and decided there was absolutely no way I could support her," Hendrix said.

Hendrix said he now plans to run in 2010 against Sen. Richard Burr.

Cross-posted from Capital Beat.

Let me first say I've been covering politics at some level or another off and on for about a dozen years, from towns of under 1,000 residents to Congressional campaigns. I take nothing, and I mean NOTHING, about a campaign personally. Everyone has different ways they want to go about their job, I have my way, and we see how things work out.

Now to the news of the day:

Dome reports that Kay Hagan showed up to file the paperwork necessary to get on the ballot today. Lots of candidates make this a big production and I largely ignore these little shows because: 1) everyone does them and quite frankly there's too many political critters out there for me to attend every one; 2) the candidate is displaying no more skill than those he or she should have acquired by the third grade, namely the ability to fill out a form and follow directions.

Hagan was apparently escorted by her new campaign manager, Crystal King. Dome details the following exchange:

Kay Hagan has hired a campaign manager.

And here's the first and last quote you might hear from her:

"I do not go on the record," said Crystal King, unprompted, to two reporters Monday after one of them asked her name, David Ingram reports.

King had just started to usher Hagan out of the State Board of Elections after filing as a Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate.

Not exactly a warm greeting.

Huh.

So let's flashback to last week when I was working on a a piece about Hagan, Jim Neal and progressives.

I had originally given Hagan a buzz on her cell phone in the morning and ended up talking to her later in the day. But in between, campaign spokeswoman Colleen Flanagan gave me a call to chat me up. Fair enough.

After learning what the story I was working on was about, Flanagan took it upon herself to get me a written quote. (This is another story, but when I KNOW a candidate or other live human is available to spend five minutes on the phone, I don't typically deal in written quotes. They sound phony, pre-thought-out and half the time don't address the question.)

What's relevant in this case is who the quote is from: Crystal King, who Dome says doesn't go on the record. That struck me as odd, or at least calls into question by what she meant.

So in the interest of full disclosure - and at the risk of aggravating people I would really like to keep talking to me - here is Flanagan's e-mail, which contained a quote from King, which was very definitely on the record.

Hi Mark -- good speaking with you earlier. Looking forward to meeting you soon!

Statement below from Crystal King, Kay's campaign manager:

"Progressives are an important part of the Democratic community, and their desire and energy to replace a Washington politician like Elizabeth Dole is just as strong as Kay's And the Hagan campaign is doing everything thing we can to earn their votes in the primary -- and have them as a foundation for a winning general election campaign. The issues Kay's been highlighting: changing course in Iraq and reinvesting in America, taking care of our vets, and finally getting something done to make health care more affordable will appeal to voters all across the state of North Carolina."

The quote also mentions that Hagan will be announcing more campaign staff and a re-launch of the website in coming days.

What to make of this? I'll leave that to y'all.

The Elon University Poll put its latest results out this morning.

While slightly over 50 percent of respondents give U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole a positive job approval mark, only 37 percent say they're going to vote for her.

In a written statement that comes along with the numbers this morning, Poll Director Hunter Bacot writes:

"While Senator Dole receives decent reviews from North Carolinians overall, the Bush presidency is tempering her support a bit in the state, and this could prove a liability as she runs for reelection this fall."

President Bush did get pretty bad reviews, but his name isn't going to be on the ballot. I'm not convinced that all the difference in Dole's numbers can be chalked up to Bush - maybe part but not all.

There's might be a little bit of Coble effect at play - the "those guys in Washington are crooks but my guy is okay" take voters seem to have no matter where they are.

The data, by the way, on the question "Who do you think is the best candidate to oppose Sen. Dole," is all over the map. Hagan gets the nod, but her number is in the single digits and not significantly different from Neal's. More than 80 percent answered either "Don't' know" or "Too early to tell." The only thing that speaks to is none of the Democrats have enough name recognition right now to effectively wage a campaign against Dole.

Click here for the raw feed from the poll.

So I have story for Sunday - click here to read it - that seemed like a really good idea when I thought it up a week ago. I'm less sure right now, in part because I ended up having to hack the substantive bit that got me interested in writing it.

The premise is this: after talking to and watching the Internet posts of progressive/liberal/activist left Democrats, it seems they are lining up more behind Chapel Hill investment banker Jim Neal rather than Greensboro state Sen. Kay Hagan.

Now, there is a natural danger in writing about any one group of people. First off, not all members of the group will adhere to your thesis. Progressives are even less cohesive and consistent by their nature. Also, this is a story that requires some measure of nuance, which a 30-inch newspaper story doesn't always get at real well.

That said, I don't think the thesis is completely off base.

Neal sounds more like a progressive on the stump than Hagan does. His campaign thus far has been engineered around a robust web presence and talking in front of any gathering of more than five people who will sit still for him.

And Neal tends to take more black-and-white stands on the issues of the day, while Hagan is a bit more scholarly/circumspect in her approach in exploring new issues.

A good example of this, the bit I had to cut. Check out David Allen's blog post, which started tongues-a-waggin' in the liberal blogsphere. And it lead to this:

After hearing Hagan speak about the wiretapping bill now before Congress, Allen said he could not vote for her. Among other things, the bill would give phone companies immunity for illegal acts they may have committed in cooperating with phone taps requested by the Bush administration.

Democrats, Allen said, should be pushing back against that bill.

"What I get tired of is people like Kay Hagan telling me why it can't be done," Allen said.

Interviewed Friday, Hagan did not offer a yes-or-no answer as to whether she would have backed the Senate version of the wiretap bill to which Allen objects.

"I think it depends on which amendment you're looking at, and which bill you're looking at and we've got to look at all of that and see what's best for North Carolina," she said.
Neal was more definitive when asked.

"I was disappointed that the Senate buckled on the issue of retroactively granting immunity to the telecom companies," Neal said. Allowing lawsuits, he said, would allow lawyers to probe what kind of pressure the Bush administration used and figure out why some companies felt they had to cooperate and at least one did not.

Others who I spoke to for this story agreed that the telco issue would be a big issue for progressives.

Also worth noting is there were several people - all from Guilford County - who I approached for this story who either declined to talk to me or agreed to do so if their names weren't used. Both Hagan and Neal have Guilford County connections and it seems some were afraid of offending one or the other.

Update: Tom Jensen at PPP points to a post he wrote about a Survey USA poll that showed liberals in North Carolina slightly favoring Hagan over Neal. As he wrote then, it doesn’t make a great deal of sense given the tenor of the race.

But it does jibe with something James Protzman, better known as Anglico out there on the Internets shared. He said that activist, vocal liberals seem to be favoring Neal. But the next layer, those who may share progressive values but are not as active or outspoken, are split. Maybe that's what the Survey USA poll got at. Maybe not...I've been gun-shy about polls as of late.

The North Carolina Association of Educators has endorsed Kay Hagan in her U.S. Senate bid.

From their news release:

Hagan has demonstrated strong leadership on public education issues while serving in the North Carolina Senate. In addition, she is opposed to school voucher proposals, supports reforming the No Child Left Behind Act, and wants to close the achievement gap for minority students.

It does not mention Hagan's opponents. Worth noting is that Hagan is a lead budget writer and the NCAE takes an active interest in the budget process. I guess they like her work.

From the Google news alert service regarding the front-running U.S. Senate candidates:

• * Southern Political Report says incumbents rules in campaign fundraising - shock! "Democrats are beginning to raise significant funds in North Carolina, where the GOP's US Sen. Elizabeth Dole had just under $2.7 million on hand, not as impressive as one might expect for the former chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. In the Democratic contest to oppose Dole, state Sen. Kay Hagan has much more cash on hand than investment banker Jim Neal, $516,000 to $139,000."

• * Bay Area Report: Neal will be on the west coast for a fundraiser. Neal tells the paper he opposes DOMA but would back civil unions.
  

  "I think that the federal government and the state has no right discriminating against anybody on any basis, period. Churches are free to marry whomever they want to, they enjoy that right as non-secular institution," said Neal. "But the state has no business. Clearly, DOMA I think usurps the constitution's full faith and credit clause."

Jim Neal is keeping pace with State Sen. Kay Hagan in the Democratic U.S. Senate primary, according to this poll by Survey USA. Hagan had 24 percent in the survey, Neal had 23 percent.

This is markedly different than the last PPP survey, which had Hagan way ahead, 21 percent to 6 percent.

I'm not quite sure what to make of the disagreement between the two surveys.

Kay Hagan has a campaign flier that she's been handing out while on the hustings. It basically highlights her accomplishments and gives a brief bio. Pretty standard stuff. One bullet point caught my attention.

"While Washington continues to run outrageous debts, Kay, as co-chair of the Budget Committee, made sure North Carolina had a balanced budget."

Hagan can take credit for a lot of things, but I'm not sure this is one of them.

Article III of the state constitution says: "The total expenditures of the State for the fiscal period covered by the budget shall not exceed the total of receipts during that fiscal period and the surplus remaining in the State Treasury at the beginning of the period."

In other words: the state is constitutionally required to have a balanced budget.

Like Kay Hagan, U.S. Senate candidate Jim Neal was also on the hustings in Guilford County Tuesday. I caught up with him as he spoke to students at NCA&T.

Quick impressions:

• * Neal spoke to about 20 students, spending most of his time fielding questions.

• * Neal was asked how he could be incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole in the fall. "Sen. Dole is a very polarized figure," Neal said, explaining that he believed Dole's base to be among very conservative voters. "She is in a position to lose some of the more moderates." Neal said that he's in the better position to win over those moderates because of his experience in business.

• * While talking about bridging political differences, Neal seemed amazed at Dole's moral flexibility on basketball. Dole was photographed at the UNC-Clemson game this week sitting next to Erskine Bowles, opponent in the 2002 Senate race. "She sat next to Erskine Bowles and pulled for Carolina and she went to Duke - that's the most whack thing I've ever seen."

• * Neal got fired up when talking about economic inequities. He was talking to a room of mostly African American students, and noted that blacks were more likely to die earlier than whites and that an African American male was born with a 1 in 3 chance of winding up in jail. "You weren't born with a gene that says go to jail, die soon...We have failed a large segment of the population."

• * Neal was asked about the inequities between colleges in the UNC system, specifically those of the state's flagship campuses and Historically Black Colleges and Universities. The differences, he said, were visually striking when he walked onto an HCBU campus like NCA&T.

  "It doesn't look like Chapel Hill, it doesn't look like N.C. State does," he said. The problem, he said, had to do with the money and influence wielded by alumni. "Why don't we just have one endowment for the overall university system...It has everything to do with money and power and it's the same way in Raleigh as it is in Washington."

State Sen. Kay Hagan was on the stump in Greensboro this evening, speaking the Guilford County Democratic executive committee and local Dems at the Golden Corral over on Wendover. Hagan, a Democrat, is aiming to unseat Republican U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole.

She played to a crowd of about 50-75 folks and was introduced by Don Vaughan, who hopes to take her state Senate seat. The short take:

• * She delivered what is apparently becoming a stock line for her: "I think we need to send Miss Liddy Dole a pair of ruby red slippers and let her click her heels three times and go home to Kansas."

• * The far better line of the evening: "My husband can vote for me."

• * Last of the read meat: Hagan said that for years, the state was represented by "Senator No," a reference to Jesse Helms. "Now we have Senator Who?...We're now going to have Senator Can Do, and that's going to be Kay Hagan."

• * Hagan spent a good deal of her speech outlining her accomplishments in Raleigh, including helping to land more Smart Start funding for Guilford County, bolstering state support for the furniture market and helping to keep payday lenders out of the state.

• * She told the crowd that a remake of her website is in the works and would be online within two weeks.

I've been meaning to do this sooner, but I've been home with a sick child. Anyway, I finally got on the phone with Senate Candidate Jim Neal regarding the Village Voice story.

First, be forewarned: Yes, I know the Village Voice is a condescending bastion of New York humor, but I did ask the candidate respond as if answering someone (like me) who didn't quite get the joke.

Secondly, I recorded audio with Neal's permission so I'm going to give you a short form response and then you can listen to the full take if you're interested.

First up, this suggestion that there might not be any Jewish folks in North Carolina, or at least that there weren't at the time of Jesse Helms' youth.

"To say there are no Jewish people in North Carolina is pretty preposterous," Neal said. He has some Jewish ancestry himself.

Click here for that full answer.

Secondly, I asked why he seemed to be getting asked about his sexual orientation a lot outside the state, while it's kind of died out as a topic here.

"The story of my sexual orientation played out here, outside of the state when I talk to reporters, they're reporting it for the first time," Neal said.

Click here for that full answer.

I asked Neal what was taking him out of state, and he emphasized that he had only been to New York once this year. He pointed out - rightly - that anyone trying to run for national office from North Carolina is going to have to look out of state for money.

Then he made this pledge, for what would presumably be his re-election campaign:

"After I'm elected Senator, for the record, I will never accept a campaign contribution more $250, never. Because in six years, the Internet is going to displace the bundlers, and the PACs, and the special interest groups who write the bigger checks," Neal said.

Click here for that full answer.

The follow up to that question was whether it was harder for Neal to raise money in North Carolina because he was gay. This is something that I have heard, off the record or not for attribution, multiple times.

"No, I don't think so at all. I think it's harder for me to raise money from outside North Carolina because I'm from outside the system," Neal said.

Click here for that full answer.

The conversation rolled around to the potential of having a competitive Democratic primary in North Carolina and whether that would be good or bad for folks like him lower down on the ticket. He said it would be a good thing, drawing attention to the state.

He said that folks outside the state still thought about Jesse Helms when they thought of North Carolina politics.

"North Carolina today is about John Edwards, that's where most people should associate North Carolina," Neal said.

Click here for that full answer.

So, did he answer whatever questions you might have had?

By way of Lex who picked up from Schaver, the folks at MapLight are offering cool widgets that show fundraising for federal candidates. For example, here's a snapshot of the U.S. Senate race here in North Carolina.

Chapel Hill investment banker and Greensboro native Jim Neal will be in Greensboro next Tuesday. Details from a news release, after the jump:

I am apparently way unhip, or just too slow to understand how this story in the Village Voice winds its way to talking to Jim Neal, a candidate for U.S. Senate here in North Carolina.

But it does...eventually...half way through. I think it's meant to be funny, except, well, it's not.

It's just sad, stuck somewhere between elitist and ignorant.

Here's an excerpt from the story that will give you some idea of the style:

But might Elizabeth Dole be every bit as rotten as Limbaugh- I mean Helms - was? "She's not as polarizing in terms of her stance on social issues," said Neal. "Jesse Helms will be remembered as being a very polarizing, mean person. An old-line party activist in North Carolina named Betty McCain said, 'Helms is so mean that when he was a boy, his mother had to tie a pork chop around his neck so the dogs would come play with him.' " "I thought that was to keep away the Jews," I remarked, saucily. "There aren't any!" replied Neal, laughing.

Right. Cute. Someone might want to mention that to these folks or maybe these folks. From the Temple Emanuel website:

The Greensboro Jewish community had its first permanent settlers in the middle 1890's. At this time, the earliest Greensboro members of the Cone and Schiffman families arrived and were soon joined by relatives and in-laws.

Did I mention Neal grew up in Greensboro?

I know, I know, I'm letting facts getting in the way of witty repartee and New York condescension on us backward southerners. And I'm going to do it again. More from the Voice piece:

Has Neal's out sexuality become an issue in the campaign? "You're the first person who's asked me that casually," he said, as my gay jaw dropped. "It's been very awkward for journalists. I've been all over the state like a junebug and no one has asked me once about my sexual orientation!"

Right. It's been a total non-issue except for the audio clip on this page or this story or maybe this here from Charlotte or ... well, you get the idea.

Now, I've met Neal and interviewed him both over the phone and in person. He strikes me generally as a thoughtful, temperate observer and speaker. So, I don't know, maybe he was quoted out of context. I haven't spoken to him about this story so don't know what the deal might be.

I'm not calling BS on Neal right yet. But on the Village Voice, oh yes, if for no other reason than indulging in the same ol' ugly stereotypes of North Carolina. Don't get me wrong. You'll find your share of homophobes and religious intolerants around here.

But let's document them for who they are, rather than as part of some cartoonish sketch that paints the state as some kind of backward monolith where Willie Stark might be at home. Heck, if nothing else, the story does a disservice to the North Carolina's not insubstantial pockets of progressives. (Hello, the Speaker of the North Carolina House is Joe Hackney for cripes sake.)

Or am I just over-reacting. Probably. I mean, they're just having a laugh, right?

My Google reader has been culling stories related to North Carolina's U.S. Senate campaign over the past week. It looks like the leading Democrats are on the road.

State Sen. Kay Hagan was spotted in Florida, playing up her local connections to win a campaign in North Carolina, where she's playing up her local connection. Hagan last week was in Lakeland, where her father was mayor at one point. Her uncle, Lawton Chiles, was a governor and U.S. Senator from Florida.

"Let's just say I was born in North Carolina, went to law school in North Carolina, worked all my career in North Carolina and have three children who went through the schools there. So I can represent the people of North Carolina," Hagan said in an interview with the Lakeland Ledger.

Also on the road was Jim Neal, a Chapel Hill investment banker.

The New York Observer noted Neal would be in town at the end of January, as did Page Six, which famously decided that Jesse Helms had passed on to the great Senate seat in the sky before he actually had.

Meanwhile, Dole took a swipe at her would-be rivals last week, saying they shouldn't support the SCIP children's health insurance program at the expense of the state's traditional cash crop, tobacco.

"To fund it on the back of North Carolina's economy - and especially on the backs of the tobacco industry - when there are other funding options, is unfair," Dole said in a speech to the Tobacco Growers Association of North Carolina.

You can add another to the roster of candidates hoping to challenge Republican U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole this year.

Howard Staley, a podiatrist who practices in Sanford, sent word by way of a news release that he intends to run as a Democrat. You can click her for his FEC info.

State Sen. Kay Hagan and Chapel Hill investment banker Jim Neal are the front runners in the race. Also declared are John Ross Hendrix of Cary and Duskin Lassiter of Lexington.

In his news release, Staley writes:

"Instead of this Nation bolstering corporate profit, we need to be concerned with the genuine needs of American people," Staley said today. "We need to encourage pride in a United States of America that rewards its citizens with a guarantee of their basic needs - specifically good jobs, affordable housing, unadulterated food and water, and worriless healthcare."

Kay Hagan was scheduled to speak to a town hall meeting of Guilford County Democrats tonight. In fact, I find myself in Greensboro to attend and therefore find myself a bit disappointed. From the party via e-mail:

Due to adverse weather conditions, tonight's Town Hall Meeting with N.C. Senator Kay Hagan has been postponed. The meeting will be rescheduled within the next few weeks.

Hagan is running for U.S. Senate and is in a pretty good primary battle with Chapel Hill investment banker Jim Neal.

Democratic Senate candidate Jim Neal put out the following on his fundraising for the third quarter of 2007:

"Our filing will show that as of December 31st we have raised more than $210,000. We are very proud of where we are. We are meeting our fundraising goals and we are building a strong grassroots campaign.

I'm most proud of the hundreds of small dollar contributors from across North Carolina supporting our grassroots campaign to defeat the special interests that control the political agenda, whether in Raleigh or Washington D.C.

Our movement will continue to grow and we will prove that North Carolina's citizens are more powerful than the special interests."

Previously, Hagan reported roughgly twice that fundraising number.

Update: Click here for Saturday's story.

-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=

State Sen. Kay Hagan announced she had raised $561,836 in the last three months of 2007 for her U.S. Senate campaign. Really, that's the last two months of 2007, since she officially launched her campaign and filed paperwork on Oct. 30.

Her chief rival for the Democratic nomination, Chapel Hill investment banker Jim Neal did not release numbers today, saying "I know we had a good quarter but we could have done better." He forecasted that the first three months of this year would be “very big.”

Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole raised $1.1 million in the final three quarters of 2007, her campaign said. That would bring her total fundraising effort for the year to $4.8 million.

Conservative projections suggest the Democratic nominee will need to raise a total of $8 million to take on Dole, while others say the number could go as high as $12 million.

More on all this in Saturday's paper (I think).

In some ways this release from Public Policy Poling on Democratic primaries makes perfect sense to me. Edwards trailing in NC? Sure - especially after losing two early primaries. About 67 percent of folks not having a choice in the Lt. Governor's race? Heck, I bet a good number of those weren't aware the Lt. Governor was elected separately from the governor.

But the U.S. Senate race results confound me.

No, not the part where 66 percent haven't made up their mind. I actually sort of expect that at this stage in the game.

But Greensboro Sen. Kay Hagan leads the field with 19 percent of the vote, 12 points ahead of Chapel Hill investment banker Jim Neal.

It's not that Hagan isn't a legit candidate with a good shot. But she hasn't been doing a lot in terms of outreach or grass-roots campaigning that I can tell. She's been doing fundraisers and getting her campaign team together, but that's not the sort of stuff that tends to give you an advantage in the polls.

Neal, by contrast, has been actively on the stump.

And it's a bit at odds with polls that tested Hagan and Neal against incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole, which showed they were pretty equivalent options among voters. So what gives? Some possibilities:

• * There is a certain segment of the population that will choose a female candidate over male candidates when presented with little other information. Hagan is the only woman in the field.

• * A derivative of my last thought, but primary voters may think that running a female candidate and/or one with a few years of legislative experience is their best shot of taking out Dole.

• * In those versus-Dole polls, some large percentage of voters are basically taking anyone who isn't Dole without much regard to policy or background.

• * Hagan's standing as a state Senator and the chairman of a powerful committee is good for more than just a coffee in the LOB break room.

• * For all of Jim Neal's early campaigning and grass-roots work, he's not hitting a broad segment of the Democratic primary audience. I know the on-line activists really like him, but they're not the bulk of the Democratic primary electorate.

One more note: PPP's Tom Jensen notes:

There continues to be very little movement in the race. Jim Neal barely out polls fringe candidates John Ross Hendrix and Duskin Lassiter. Hagan expands her lead over Neal from 9 points last month to 12 this month, but actually has her standing drop from 22 to 19.

In a poll with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent, I wouldn't get that excited about it. I'm more interested in the relative position of the candidates. But I'll be interested to see what Jensen has to say about that later this week.

This just in from the Guilford County Democrats:

Due to a very enthusiastic response, the date, time and location of the January Democratic Lunch Forum with SENATOR KAY HAGAN has been changed.

The Forum will now be a Town Hall Meeting and will be held at 6 p.m., THURSDAY, JANUARY 17 at Golden Corral (at Wendover & I-40).

To ensure that we have adequate space, RSVPs ARE STRONGLY RECOMMENDED!

To RSVP, call Democratic Headquarters at 315-5532 or respond to this e-mail.

There is no admission fee for the meeting. If you choose to eat at Golden Corral, the cost of the meal is yours.

If you plan to eat, please arrive early. The meeting will start promptly at 6 p.m.

Hagan is running for Senate, but you knew that...right?

For those of you on any sort of political campaigns direct mail or e-mail list, this note sent by Sen. Kay Hagan's campaign ought to look familiar:

Everyone wants to make a difference and I am convinced that if we want to make a difference here in North Carolina, we need change in Washington. Please join hundreds of other North Carolinians by contributing to my campaign for the U.S. Senate.

[snip]

P.S. Your contribution of any amount - $25, $50, $100 or more before the December 31st reporting deadline will help me demonstrate to the rest of North Carolina that I can win this race! Click here to contribute now! Thanks again for your support.

Dec. 31 is a key deadline for candidates seeking to build credibility for next year's run. The Democrats lining up to take on U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole certainly fall into that camp.

Hagan, a Democratic state senator from Greensboro, and Jim Neal, an investment banker from Chapel Hill, are the front-runners and running roughly neck and neck in the polls. A fundraising lead on this coming report could help one begin to build a lead in the polls.

But just how important it is depends on who you talk to.

Thomas Mills, Neal's campaign manager, says candidates want to have enough money on hand but won't be playing the "who-has-more" game get. He points out that both Hagan and Neal jumped into the race at the beginning of the current campaign finance reporting quarter. While both should have been able to build up some funds, neither the race nor the money chase will be over Jan. 1, he said.

"There's nothing going to be make or break for either campaign with this report," Mills said.

True enough. But money in politics begets more money. People like to bet on a winner. And if one of the Democrats can roll out an eye-popping total on their end-of-year report, it could suck the wind out of their opponents fundraising.

As for Dole, she had $2.3 million in the bank as of Sept. 30 and has continued to raise money. It was more important for her to raise money early in the year to show that she could still put together the kind of finance effort that helped bring her victory in 2002.

"With the amount of money she's raised, whatever needed to be answered for Sen. Dole has been answered," said Mark Stephens, a consultant with Dole's campaign.

In fact, the leading Democrats' eyes do seem more on Dole than on each other.

"I look at it as if I'm running between now and next November against Elizabeth Dole," Hagan said this week.