At least 30 before -30-
One of my reporters asked me this very question a few weeks ago. How many years will it be until there is no print edition of the (News & Record)?
The editor of the L.A. Times says at least 35 years for his pub. I told our guy 30 years. Our reasoning was the same. Boomers are core newspaper readers, and there is a lot of life in them (us) yet. Couple that with the expected growth in the Triad with Fed Ex and the planned Interstates, we should have at least a couple generations of life. I also agree that the growth of digital journalism and the evolution of a strong business model will come.
But the newspaper will look and read differently than it does today, and the changes will come much faster than they have in the past. That, more than whether there is print or not, is the biggest challenge both for readers and journalists.
Thursday update: Shows what I know: Steve Ballmer says 10 years.
Comments (3)
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I have to wonder if community papers will last longer than the larger papers...small communities are all about the community weeklies. I've written humorous columns for papers and I've found that any age can become loyal to a paper when something in the paper attracts them. What are your thoughts?
Posted on June 4, 2008 11:21 PM
And what about "local" TV - with the 2009 Digital conversion forcing almost everyone to cable and satellite because they simply refuse to stick an antenna on the house. I think the big winners will be the local cable news and newspapers with video because they aren't saddled with high-priced news readers (anchors).
I'd give the N&R a better chance of surviving than all 8 local TV stations and even odds on surviving longer than the last 2. Eventually, local TV is doomed because they aren't really local - just a relay for the networks 18 hours a day.
Posted on June 5, 2008 2:05 AM
I think community papers are in pretty good shape. Because they tend to be in markets without intense competition from other papers or television coverage, they have the opportunity to create content online and in paper that is vital to readers and unique to their markets.
That said, they shouldn't sit tight. They should learn from the mistakes the larger papers have made and be building a strong digital presence.
I defer to you, Don, on TV.
Posted on June 5, 2008 9:15 AM