News-Record.com

If it were a poker game, High Point would have a great, big pile of chips and Las Vegas just a little stack.

Granted, a stack that grew impressively last week.

What we don't know yet is who has the better hand, who's more likely to draw winning cards and how aggressively the rivals intend to play.

Is Vegas holding aces? How long can Sin City keep raising the stakes? What's it hiding up its sleeve?

How many chips is High Point willing to throw on the table? Can it stand pat and hope to win?

No one thinks Vegas is bluffing anymore. Its first furniture show last week came with plenty of logistical problems but also created quite a buzz. The World Market Center -- no mirage in the desert -- might never build out to 12.5 million square feet as planned, but it is certain to get much bigger than it is now.

Big enough to steal High Point's pot? Some people think so. The game's virtually over already, they say.

As industry gadfly Ivan Saul Cutler colorfully put it in his blog, insidefurniture.com:

"Right now, next week and for a long time, the High Point market makers are and will be frantically meeting to inject business Botox into the sagging body of an aging mercantile matron, in the fervent hope some new shapely contours can recapture diminishing love and reinvigorate a challenging industry marriage.

"For High Point's Market, reversing a new emotional and rational love affair with a young, more attractive industry business partner will be painful, soul-searching and quite possibly futile."

I still prefer my poker analogy. Staring at your cards, gathering the courage to answer a brash bet with an even bolder play can be painful, soul-searching and quite possibly futile, too. But High Point has to play aggressively. And maybe the Las Vegas hand isn't as strong as everyone assumes.

Sure, there were big crowds and excitement at last week's debut.
"If you opened the High Point market on day one and put everybody in 1.3 million square feet, you'd have a lot of excitement, too," said analyst Ken Smith of BDO Seidman, who attended the Vegas market. "When they get to 12 million square feet, they won't look so busy."

Vegas was supposed to provide a better bargain, but that's only substantially true for hotels and airfare. Sure, those are big items. But food and entertainment are very expensive -- and retailers' budgets might not allow extravagant business trips twice a year. For exhibitors, the costs of renting space, constructing showrooms and moving items in and out are out of sight.

Then there's relative size. Vegas right now is still a small player compared to High Point. For many years, much more product will be shown here than there. Buyers have to come to High Point to see it all.

The challenge is to make High Point a better destination for buyers. They can't have as much fun here, but can they accomplish more with a minimum of expense and hassle?

The weakest card in High Point's hand is lodging. Many hotels and motels raise their rates to unreasonable levels, and in some cases offer shoddy accommodations.

"Nobody expects them not to take advantage of supply and demand, but raising their rates three times normal is ludicrous," complained Judy Mendenhall, president of High Point's market authority. "That will cost us the market."

Providing housing subsidies would be too expensive and likely just "feed the greed," Mendenhall said. Hotel owners instead must be persuaded to moderate their rates for the good of the local economy and their own long-term benefit. She suggests it's time for local business leaders to get more involved in solving this problem.

High Point Chamber of Commerce President Tom Dayvault agrees.

"We're the champions of free enterprise," he said, vowing "that's not going to change." But it's essential that everyone in the Triad grasp the larger view of our economic climate and how to make it hospitable to the furniture market. The collective interest comes first.

Without a doubt, Vegas looks like a card shark -- "a viable, serious threat to the market," in Mendenhall's words. At some point, it could throw all its chips on the table -- for example, by switching its market dates from January and July to March and September, right before High Point's April and October. That would essentially force buyers to choose one or the other. Then we'd find out whether Vegas was hiding some aces.

But High Point still has the pile of chips. It's got to play them to improve transportation, parking and other services, to increase promotion and marketing, to do everything possible to protect its billion-dollar event.

Folding is not in the cards.