State sees rare congressional contests
My column today:
My niece, Erika, recently moved from Brevard to Graham, where she's started her teaching career.
As a young woman interested in politics, she already misses the 11th District congressional campaign. Republican Rep. Charles Taylor and Democrat Heath Shuler are waging a spirited contest up in the mountains. In fact, their race is on national radar screens as one where Democrats might pick up a seat.
Erika now resides on the cusp of another battle, this one between Rep. Brad Miller, a Democrat, and Republican Vernon Robinson in the 13th District. ...
But she actually lives just inside the 6th District, where Republican Howard Coble has held voters' loyalty since 1984. This year, as usual, he faces only token opposition. Democrat Rory Blake just moved into the district earlier this year and probably needs another two decades to meet as many people as Coble can call by name in a dozen different Piedmont communities. So, don't bet on an upset.
That's typical. With big advantages in name recognition and fundraising, incumbents almost always win.
A congressman's greatest asset, though, is his district. State legislatures draw districts, and they make it a game of political entitlement. Democrats and Republicans agree on the rules, which ensure that both parties win their share.
They aim to minimize points of conflict, which sounds odd given the competitive nature of partisan politics. But the major parties are essentially conservative organizations. They don't like uncertainty or risk, and they don't want to spend more money than they have to. Politically and financially, they can't afford to fight it out in 435 congressional districts or thousands of legislative districts across the country. So they pick their battles.
That means most districts are crafted to favor one party or the other. Based on historic voting patterns, legislators can count on the result before the election is held. This lets the parties concentrate their resources in the few districts where voters could go either way. There you see the loud, expensive and often nasty slugfests -- and where, by November, the public becomes thoroughly disgusted.
In North Carolina this year, we're witnessing a rare occurrence: campaign brawls in three congressional districts: the 11th, 13th and down in the 8th, where Republican Robin Hayes is chased by Democrat Larry Kissell. Hayes is likely to prevail, but Taylor up in the 11th is not, in my view.
Taylor, a long-term congressman in a district that favors Republicans, is in trouble owing to three factors:
* His own clumsiness. Taylor stumbled in last year's CAFTA showdown, when he stated his opposition but failed to record a vote, a move perceived as dodging a tough issue; and in appearing to stall federal funding for a United Flight 93 memorial in Pennsylvania.
* His opponent's strength. Shuler, a local high school football legend who later played in the NFL, has been able to attack Taylor's weaknesses and present himself as a Christian, pro-family conservative on social issues, which helps in Western North Carolina.
* The mood of the country. This is going to be a down year for Republicans, when many voters decide it's time to give Democrats a chance to lead.
For Taylor, those will be three strikes and out.
My assessment of the 13th District race, in contrast, shows Robinson failing to throw any of those strikes against Miller. The incumbent Democrat has not made serious mistakes in office; Robinson repels as many voters as he attracts through his aggressive and sometimes outlandish campaigning; and Miller will benefit from the national surge against Republicans.
I don't know how Erika's going to vote in the 6th District race, but it really won't matter. While Coble might not get as many votes as usual because of anti-Republican sentiment, that only gives him one strike. Blake's pitch doesn't have nearly enough zip to get past a crafty old hitter like Coble.
Erika left Brevard just in time to miss the best congressional race North Carolina has seen in many years.
Comments (6)
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Doug,
I highly recommend Spencer Overton's book on election chicanery- Stealing Democracy
It's a non-partisan in depth look at how your vote is manipulated, used, traded, and sometimes stolen.
Spencer is a law professor at George Washington University, and has a very firm grasp on the subject.
Posted on September 6, 2006 9:06 AM
Thanks for the tip, Bruce.
Posted on September 6, 2006 10:20 AM
Doug, why are you such a Heath Shuler fan? Normally, I'm a big fan of your blog and your columns, but I don't understand this bizarre man-crush you have on Shuler. This is at least the third column or blog entry you've written singing his praises.
So Shuler played football - big deal. Charles Taylor, on the other hand, has a long, successful track record in Congress. Besides, western N.C. (except for Asheville) is solidly Republican ground and Taylor has real conservative credentials, as opposed to Shuler's make-believe ones (there's no such thing as "conservative Democrat", no more than a "Hindu athiest" or a "steak-loving vegetarian". Notice no GOP members ever position themselves as "liberal Republicans").
If being a washed-up Redskins quarterback is all it takes to be a good congressman in your book, why don't we bring in Joe Theismann to replace Howard Coble and Doug Williams to replace Mel Watt. Heck, let's go all the way - Jeff George for Senate!
Posted on September 6, 2006 1:18 PM
Yes, this is the third time I've mentioned Shuler -- hardly a lot given the importance of the 11th district race. The second wasn't all that complimentary, pointing out that he apparently hasn't taken any position at all on the war in Iraq. It also noted that his anti-abortion position probably means national Democrats won't promote him for leadership positions in Congress or for higher office.
Otherwise, I'm calling it as I see it. I think he'll win. If he does, it will be the first time in many years that an incumbent congressman has been turned out in North Carolina. I'll have to research that, but off the top of my head I don't know who was the last. If he doesn't win, well, you can nail me for being wrong. Either way, I'm probably not going to influence anybody's vote in the 11th district.
The other QBs you named maybe could return to their native communities and do pretty well in a political campaign.
If you think there's no such thing as a conservative Democrat, how do you explain Zeb Miller?
Posted on September 6, 2006 2:07 PM
I hope the tongue-in-cheek nature of my previous post came through - I really do like your work, Doug.
I just don't share your faith in Shuler. He offers nothing beyond his celebrity - an empty suit, so to speak. Charles Taylor, on the other hand, has a long, distinguished track record of representing folks in the 11th district. He's done a lot of good in Congress and I'd hate to see him voted out. I doubt that will happen, unless people vote entirely out of blind loyalty to the Vols (who, admittedly, have a big fan following in WNC) instead of looking at the qualifications of the two candidates.
Still, I think you may be selling the voters a little short. Richard Petty, who is a much bigger sports legend than Shuler, couldn't get elected Secretary of State and he didn't face anywhere near the caliber of competition as Taylor.
Miller proves my point - he's a pariah in his own party and a Democrat in name only. I'm convinced he remains a Democrat solely as a sort of "fifth columnist" to point out how far left the Democrats have become and not because he has anything in common with the rest of the party.
If someone is a true conservative, they ally themselves with the party of the conservatives, namely the Republicans. Or maybe they vote Libertarian. But they sure aren't going to be Democrats by definition. If I claim to be a Baptist, I'm not going to join the Unitarian church. If I'm pro-gun control, I'm not going to be an NRA member. You get the idea.
Posted on September 6, 2006 2:38 PM
Thanks, js.
Petty didn't campaign much and said if he was elected he'd work out of Level Cross. I don't think even his fans took his candidacy seriously.
I'll grant you that Shuler's political credentials don't compare to Taylor's. Taylor served in the state legislature before running for Congress, so you could say he paid dues that Shuler still owes.
But the voters' say counts. We'll know in a couple of months what they decide.
Posted on September 6, 2006 2:50 PM