Examine costs and benefits of global warming policies
I favor efforts to reduce pollution, save energy, cut dependence on foreign sources and develop practical alternatives.
But, when talk turns to higher taxes, raising prices on appliances and measures that possibly could cost jobs and curtail economic growth, as in Jason Hardin's story today, "Group urges change in legislative climate on global warming," I'd like to know what the tangible benefits will be.
Yes, global temperatures have increased over the last century. Scientists say this will continue over the next century. Most believe human activity is contributing to the rise.
Where agreement ends is on how much warmer it will get and what the impact will be. The most alarmist predictions foresee total catastrophe. Some say urgent and drastic responses are called for.
Jason quotes Dennis Grady of Appalachian State University responding to concerns about costs:
"When you look at not having the Outer Banks anymore, that's a pretty expensive line item right there."
No Outer Banks? Of course, the Outer Banks have been pushed around by waves and wind forever. I suppose the ocean covered most of what's now North Carolina at one time in the distant past. It's not a welcome development if the sea is going to inundate our coast again sometime in the next several centuries, or if we're going to experience more frequent and powerful hurricanes and disruptions to agriculture, among other troubles and turmoil.
But, before implementing a set of solutions, policymakers should be prepared to tell us what impact they'll have. If we do all these things, will there be any significant, even detectable, change in what's likely to happen?
I suspect no one would make any such promise because no one really knows. For all the "certainty" that some profess on this subject, the unknowns are immense. Scientists can't explain with certainty why climate change has occurred even in the relatively recent past; they can't say that, even absent any human influence, the world wouldn't be warming now naturally; therefore, they can't give assurances that any human action now will stop further warming.
Measures to achieve responsible energy use and better environmental stewardship are good ideas in their own right and should be pursued. At the same time, we have to recognize that the way we use energy currently contributes to a higher quality of life than was available for our ancestors. It's fair to ask how much we should sacrifice in order to achieve theoretical benefits, or forestall theoretical harm, in the future.
All major policy initiatives should be subject to cost-benefit analysis.