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Sin City secrets

What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas, including what ought to be absolutely straightforward information like how many people attended the recent furniture market there.

All you get from the World Market Center, via a gushing press release, is that the July 30-Aug. 3 show surpassed "the historical average of 50,000 registered attendees."

This "historical average" goes back exactly two years.

Let's try to track the math.

WMC announced its inaugural market in July 2005 drew 62,000 attendees.

Attendance was a less-specific "more than 50,000" for the second show in January 2006.

By the third show in July 2006, WMC had adopted its "historical average" method of reporting attendance: "Las Vegas Market continues to enjoy strong attendance, and over the course of the last three markets has maintained an average of approximately 50,000 registered attendees each show."

I'm no math whiz, but I can see a flaw here. When the first show drew 62,000 and the second "more than 50,000," then the market has not "maintained an average of approximately 50,000." It could have fallen to an average of approximately 50,000 if its third show drew about 38,000.

In February, WMC boasted of its best and biggest show yet, claiming it "significantly exceeded the historical average of 50,000 registrations per market."

So, the last two markets have been much better than average and better than average.

But why no exact numbers? Why use a yardstick based only on an average established during the first three of five markets? It's like saying that when Barry Bond broke the single-season home run record in 2001, he significantly exceeded his "historical average" of 40 home runs a year rather than say he hit 73.

My first guess is that the Vegas markets haven't matched their initial draw of 62,000, despite adding more showroom space and exhibitors. Second, WMC doesn't want to report any declines at all. It seems obvious that if market No. 4 "significantly exceeded" 50,000 but market No. 5 only "surpassed" 50,000, attendance dropped from February to July. WMC doesn't want to report how much.

It doesn't even want to update its "average," which of course would change after every market and would let anyone with middle-school math skills (I'm barely there) figure out the actual attendance. This might be because WMC thinks 50,000 is a mark it can beat each time out, or maybe its PR people just aren't good at calculating averages.

I don't know, but I do know that the High Point Market is winning both in numbers and in candor.

Comments (2)

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John Burns said:

I wonder why High Point hasn't seized on that and started a run of stories in the industry press about the faltering attendance and weak performance of the Vegas market. Like James Carville says, if your opponent is drowning, reach out and throw the sumbitch an anvil.

Doug said:

There was criticism that High Point officials were too quick to disparage the Vegas threat early on, so some may be gun shy now. Anyway, I think the approach seized on lately is better - emphasizing High Point's role as the center of the furniture industry's creative class. The battle is not won, but as long as HP keeps improving market services, it can be won. Some people didn't believe that a couple of years ago.

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