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Average SAT scores relate to student retention on UNC campuses

I'm going to disagree with my friend Rosemary Roberts, who thinks colleges should junk the SAT.

She and other critics dismiss the dreaded exam once known as the Scholastic Aptitude Test as just not very useful. It seems obvious to me, however, that colleges and universities continue to rely on it for a reason: It provides another indicator, among several, of how well a high school student is likely to handle higher-level work.

I looked up some information on the University of North Carolina system Web site and found a very strong correlation between average SAT scores and college retention. In fact, it's uncanny.

The numbers apply to the fall 2004 freshman class at each UNC school. What was their average SAT score and, two years later, what percentage of them were still enrolled with at least a 2.0 grade-point average?

UNC-Chapel Hill: 1287, 89.4%
N.C. State: 1193, 76.5
UNC-Asheville: 1169, 61.4
UNC-Wilmington: 1126, 70.3
Appalachian State: 1123, 73.2
UNC Charlotte: 1079, 61.1
UNC Greensboro: 1045, 60.7
East Carolina: 1043, 62.4
Western Carolina: 1027, 56.9
UNC Pembroke: 948, 40.3
N.C. A&T: 889, 51.6
Winston-Salem State: 888, 54.6
N.C. Central: 855, 51.3
Fayetteville State: 845, 49.2
Elizabeth City State: 841, 48.1

Caution: This is definitely not the whole story. Averages can be deceiving. The students who are dropping out could have above-average SAT scores. You can't tell from these data. But, intuitively, I would say that's not the case. There's just too strong an association between higher average SAT scores and higher retention. Certainly too strong to argue for dropping the SAT. You might as well drop high school grades while you're at it.

Comments (7)

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Anonymous said:

Doug:

I too believe that the SATs, if not the EOGs, have significant value. As you know, SAT scores in our county schools fell this year. There is solid and mounting evidence that a sound education in art and music ("the arts") correlates with dramatic increases in SAT scores.

According to the college board, in 2006, students with four years of arts coursework outscored their peers who had one half-year or less of arts by 103 points on the combined verbal and math portions of the SAT.

To see what arts education can do for underprivileged and ESL kids, check this out:
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/arizonaliving/articles/0912prize0912.html.

Unfortunately our school system is moving backwards in this regard. Our arts education programs are shrinking in Guilford County. Recent cuts to arts programs in selected elementary schools disproportionately affected schools with high minority and underprivileged enrollment. (The very students that the Tucson experience show have the most to gain from arts instruction.)

Given the dramatic effect arts education can have in raising SAT scores, one must be concerned about how the recent cuts to arts instructional time will affect our kids.

Charles Murray, the social scientist who had been a major SAT cheerleader for decades, is now rattling the cage. Murray, the author of several controversial books, including "The Bell Curve," says the SAT should be shelved.* Rosemary

I'm going to disagree with my friend Rosemary Roberts, who thinks colleges should junk the SAT.* Doug

I think it is funny Doug that Rosemary along with Bell Curve wiz Murry think that SAT scores should be banned. What all three of you failed to understand is that College SAT's have been banned from big time professional college sports years ago. Do you really believe that Michael Vick score 900 on his SAT's 10 years ago?

Doug said:

Anonymous:

Thanks for your comments about the arts. Because my wife is a middle school music teacher, I'm naturally inclined to agree with you. But, as you note, there's plenty of evidence to show that students who study the arts do better in other academic subjects. Parents should take note and seek arts opportunities for their children outside school, but we should not abandon the teaching of the arts in school.

Dave Ribar said:

Doug:

The correlation is a strong one; thanks for putting this together.

One thing that the raw correlation leaves out is the percentage of students who are commuters. Commitment is going to be stronger among full-time, resident students. Our colleges and universities need to serve both groups.

Doug said:

Thanks, Dave. If you had a chance to elaborate on the point, here or on your blog, I'd be interested in reading.

brian444 said:

Dave is exactly right. Commuter students tend to be nomadic, transferring at a much higher rate and often taking courses at the community colleges at the same time they take courses at 4-year schools. They also work and drop courses--there's a straight-up correlation there, I suspect--at a much higher rate. For on-campus students, education is the equivalent of a full-time job--for commuters, much less so.

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