Numbers crunching
The precinct breakdowns from yesterday's Greensboro municipal election are available on the Guilford County Board of Elections Web site.
Voter turnout, nearly 20 percent overall, wasn't evenly distributed throughout the city.
Neither was Yvonne Johnson's support.
She won a strong majority of votes in Districts 1, 2 and 5. Milton Kern won in Districts 3 and 4. Voter turnout was higher in Districts 3 and 4 than in 1, 2 and 5. Johnson's citywide margin of victory would have been greater if the turnout had been better in her stronger areas.
Here are some numbers:
District 1: 20 percent turnout; Johnson over Kern, 85 percent to 15 percent.
District 2: 14 percent turnout; Johnson over Kern, 82 to 18.
District 3: 24 percent turnout; Kern over Johnson, 56 to 44.
District 4: 24 percent turnout; Kern over Johnson, 59 to 41.
District 5: 13 percent turnout; Johnson over Kern, 57 to 43.
These numbers represent my own calculations rather than official Board of Elections figures.
The low turnouts in Districts 2 and 5 are surprising. No. 2 is Johnson's home district; the opportunity to elect a mayor from Northeast Greensboro and the city's first black mayor should have produced a much higher turnout. And I would have thought the Trudy Wade vs. Sandy Carmany contest in District 5 would have drawn many more voters.
In some individual precincts, voting was really lopsided. Kern was actually shut out in one District 2 precinct, 64-0. Johnson racked up a vote of 679-11 in a District 1 precinct. Kern didn't have any precincts in the city where his support was so overwhelming.
Much more analysis can be done with these election returns, but I'll leave that to more proficient numbers-crunchers.
Comments (8)
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Thanks for the breakdown.
Here's another tid-bit: Had districts 1 & 2 had the same kind of turnout as 3 & 4, Abuzuaiter would have been elected.
Posted on November 7, 2007 11:41 AM
That's an excellent observation. Turnout made a real difference in the at-large race. Abuzuaiter likely would have edged out Rakestraw with a heavier turnout in 1 and 2.
Posted on November 7, 2007 12:01 PM
Also interesting: Johnson got more votes in districts 3 and 4 than she did in district 2.
Posted on November 7, 2007 3:38 PM
Man, you're reading my mind. I've written that in an editorial for tomorrow.
Posted on November 7, 2007 3:52 PM
What can I say? We are both obviously extremely intelligent.
Posted on November 7, 2007 4:47 PM
Undoubtedly you are. I'm just one of those people who spends way too much time poring over numbers, whether election returns or box scores.
Posted on November 7, 2007 4:57 PM
What can I say? We are both obviously extremely intelligent.* Brain dead Rock
As Tonto said to the Long Ranger! "Speak for yourself white man! And what do you mean We?"
Undoubtedly you are. I'm just one of those people who spends way too much time poring over *numbers, whether election returns or box scores.* Doug
Has it every occured to you that you might being pouring over fake numbers from a rigged computer?
Posted on November 7, 2007 7:04 PM
whether election returns or box scores.* Doug
ps....at least you are safe with box scores until you see Barry Bonds homerun rigged production
Posted on November 7, 2007 7:08 PM