Race and election outcomes
UNCG researchers find that the "number-one factor that determined how people voted in Guilford County was race," Amanda Lehmert reports.
The pols have known that for a long time. It's why we have the voting districts we do.
More interesting research would be to determine whether the trend is self-perpetuating. If you have districts designed to favor candidates of one race or one party, does that assure that only candidates of that race and party run, thereby limiting voters' choices and predetermining results?
One thing I like about Barack Obama is his ability to break through the racial boundaries -- in some states, anyway. As I noted in a post Tuesday night, his win in the North Dakota caucuses was remarkable on that score. The black population in Iowa is enormous compared to North Dakota's -- all of 5,000, considerably less than 1 percent.of the state's total population.
Here in Greensboro, Mayor Yvonne Johnson is a politician who transcends race to a great extent, although her support from black voters was much greater than from white voters in November. Nevertheless, she's always had the courage to run in at-large, citywide contests. Candidates -- white and black -- who take the safer route of running in districts that amount to safe enclaves will never break down barriers. In those cases, race will remain the strongest predictor of election outcomes.
Comments (6)
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And will keep ego-driven career politicians in power past the point of mummification.
Posted on February 7, 2008 9:03 AM
From the article to which you link: "'We found out that the number-one factor that determined how people voted in Guilford County was race," Ne'ati said."
I don't think the research (at least as described in the article) supports that conclusion. To begin with, it appears as if the race of individual voters was not known but assumed from the racial make-up of entire districts. Also, other factors such as income, age, gender, party affiliation and others that would likely effect how one votes, do not appear to have been considered
The anecdotal evidence of Yvonne Johnson winning in majority white districts also suggests that such a sweeping conclusion about race is suspect.
Posted on February 7, 2008 10:43 AM
The article indicates they looked at home values, which probably correlates generally to income.
The best research would rely on detailed voter interviews, which would gather demographic information and ask voters why they made the choices as they did.
Lacking that, I think you can make general inferences looking at voting results by district and matching that to district characteristics -- if you look at enough districts to note clear patterns.
It doesn't require much study of election tables to determine that, while Johnson did well in some majority-white districts, her support was substantially stronger in the districts with the highest concentrations of black voters. That provides evidence that race was a factor in the election. But maybe income was an equally important factor. Not gender, however, as all districts would have roughly similar male/female ratios.
The importance of race to voting patterns is explicity recognized by the imperative under the Voting Rights Act to create "majority-minority" districts for local, state and federal offices, as applied to North Carolina.
Posted on February 7, 2008 11:04 AM
My tabulation of mayoral votes by district last November 6 reveals the following:
District 1: Johnson, 85%, Kerns, 15%
District 2: Johnson, 82%; Kerns, 18%
District 3: Kerns, 56%; Johnson, 44%
District 4: Kerns, 60%; Johnson, 40%
District 5: Johnson, 57%, Kerns, 43%
The reader can reach his or her own conclusions about the voting results. Johnson outspent Kern by $36,000, had greater name recognition, and outcampaigned Kern who at times seemed to be a non-candidate. Johnson won in predominately black districts and in one district that has a mixed black/white population. She won handily, but it's hard to describe it as a landslide victory.
Posted on February 7, 2008 2:07 PM
I failed to include my name in the vote tabulation comment. That was done by me.
Bill Knight
Posted on February 7, 2008 2:09 PM
Will we still have "minority" districts in 500 years, when slaverly will have been eradicated for 650 years.
Barak Obama is proving that blacks, not tutored by Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton, can appeal to folks of all races. Maybe this should be a lesson to the "blacks can't succeed in racist America" crowd!
Posted on February 7, 2008 2:20 PM