News-Record.com

Guilford County Manager David McNeill and Budget Director Michael Halford were kind enough to give me a briefing yesterday on the potential financial impact of the bonds on the May 6 ballot.

These are the bonds for Guilford County Schools, GTCC, a jail and parks and recreation projects in the amount of $667,630,000.

You can see them all on the county Web site here.

The big question is impact on the property tax rate if voters approve some or all of these proposals. The county breaks it down here.

Simply put, the cost of the whole package would be significant. Beware of anyone who suggests otherwise.

The whole package would have a tax-rate impact of 3.79 cents (per $100,000 in assessed property value) the first year, FY 2009. The amount would quickly rise, peaking at a cumulative impact of 12.66 cents in FY 2012.

The present property tax rate is 69.14 cents; 12.66, therefore, represents an impact of 18.3 percent at peak cost.

In real-dollar terms, a tax-rate increase of 12.66 cents means $126.60 for the owner of a home with an assessed value of $100,000. Potentially, that would raise his tax bill from $691.40 to $818.

That's not a prediction, of course. Other budget factors could change the tax rate up or down. It depends on how much the county spends on education, public safety, health, social services and other needs. But the chances of paying off $667 million in bonds without raising taxes significantly are slim and none.

Voters will be offered one way to relieve the pressure on the property tax. A referendum gives them the option of approving a local sales-tax increase in the amount of a quarter-cent per dollar. This could bring in an estimated $16.1 million in FY 2010, or an amount equal to 3.71 cents on the property tax.

Details are here.

Of course, the trick there is that's a tax, too. It just doesn't tax everybody exactly the same way that the property tax does. And it also will nick people who live outside Guilford County but make purchases here.

This small article is not meant to argue for or against the bond and sales-tax proposals. I do want to encourage voters/taxpayers to start thinking about the issues. The proposed projects are potentially beneficial to the county, and some undoubtedly are necessary.But the costs are very high, and they will demand a lot of taxpayers. No one should sugar coat the price tag. We're talking about $667 million, and that isn't small change.