North Carolina math looks good for Obama in November
Will John McCain carry North Carolina in November, as Republican presidential candidates have done since Ronald Reagan's election in 1980?
Let's do the numbers.
If yesterday's turnout was an indication, McCain starts in a hole against Barack Obama.
McCain received 383,401 votes in the GOP primary. Barack Obama drew 897,017 votes on the Democrat side.
Granted, the Republican primary wasn't competitive and didn't pull in as many voters. But the Democratic primary was intensely competitive, so Obama lost a lot of votes to Hillary Clinton.
Let's project. Say McCain retains the support of everyone who voted for him yesterday, picks up the votes of everyone who supported other Republican candidates AND steals half of Clinton's votes.
That's very generous, and it would add up to only about 850,000 votes.
On Obama's side, he keeps the voters he had yesterday and picks up only half of Clinton's. That still pushes him up to about 1.25 million.
OK, only about 2.1 million people voted in the primaries. More will turn out in November. In 2004, 3.5 million presidential votes were cast. Let's say the number will be 4 million this time.
That will be an increase of 1.9 million over the number of voters in the primaries.
McCain will need to win 1,150,000, or 60 percent, of those additional voters to break even with Obama.
Maybe he can do it. Maybe this analysis is off the mark.
But let me say today, six months out, that North Carolina is in play in this year's presidential race.
Addendum: The math would be similar in the Perdue-McCrory and Dole-Hagan races.
Comments (9)
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I would assume that fewer Rs voted because the R Presidential nomination was a done deal. We shall see if those folks get off there duffs in Nov.
BTW...Hagan trotted out the "Dorothy Routine" again last night.
Still, Dole had better work her tail off as many Rs and Is are rather luke warm to her due to residency. That would include me.
Also, I am very disappointed in the two R Senators inability to stave off the closing of several miles of OBX beaches.
Posted on May 7, 2008 12:08 PM
I agree R turnout was somewhat depressed because McCain is a lock. But R's had a compelling gubernatorial primary that should have motivated a decent turnout.
Will they be so much more energized in November than Dems were yesterday? If they're not, they're in trouble.
Posted on May 7, 2008 1:17 PM
Doug,
Good analysis. I agree, and have done my own analysis based on stats in Chatham County, a "swing county" in that Kerry-Edwards won it by only five votes, whereas Obama won a landslide and clearly got some working class white votes.
http://jimbuie.blogs.com/journal/2008/05/will-ncs-high-t.html
Posted on May 7, 2008 2:50 PM
Great analysis Doug, but you forgot the pending legislation to raise the voter age to 35, and requires all recent high school and college grads to have attended a 12 step deprogramming course, or been a taxpayer for five years before voting!
Posted on May 7, 2008 3:00 PM
Thanks, Jim. I recommend readers take a look at your analysis.
Sorry, Tony. You have to face the reality that when a whole lot of people vote, you may not like what they decide.
But, come on, you don't like any of the candidates.
Posted on May 7, 2008 3:04 PM
Mick , I am with you on the dole aspect on this maybe being a close race but the red slippers has got to go for Hagan
I don't like to say who I voted for but I am not impressed with Senator Dole .I was one of the few who did vote for Pete Di Lauro as a protest vote to Senator Dole.
Ever since she came back to this state. She put her mothers address as residence. Since then nothing , still using her mothers house as her residence even though her mother has passed away. How about even buying a mountain or beach house in Outer Banks that might work.I am sure with Bob Dole's lobbyist money there isn't a problem for funds in the Dole household to actually buy a house in the great State of North Carolina.
Posted on May 7, 2008 4:41 PM
Was Liddy Dole not the owner of that home for many years?
Posted on May 7, 2008 6:44 PM
she got it from a marital trust
Posted on May 7, 2008 7:04 PM
Let's face it, McCain has never reached out to conservatives, and appears intent on continuing to thumb them in the eye every chance he gets. McCain's antipathy towards conservatives may well depress Republican turn out in November hurting his own chances here and making him a drag, and not an asset, to others on the Republican slate.
Posted on May 8, 2008 9:35 AM