McCain and Obama should scrap for North Carolina
I don't know whether Barack Obama will have a better chance to defeat John McCain than Hillary Clinton would, but I agree with this analysis by the Observer's Mark Johnson:
He'll be much more competitive in North Carolina.
After Obama's thumping of Clinton in our state's Dem primary May 6, that's a no-brainer.
North Carolina has voted Republican in presidential contests since 1980, sometimes by huge margins. McCain should be favored to continue the trend this year, but it will be a close one.
Close enough that both candidates should spend some time campaigning here -- a very positive development for North Carolina voters (and media).
Johnson quotes Dem pollster Harrison Hickman as placing North Carolina in a second tier of battleground states for Obama, after Florida, Iowa, Ohio and Michigan. I don't know. Florida, Michigan and Ohio were Clinton states, and some of her supporters in Florida and Michigan might hold a grudge against Obama for opposing the full reinstatement of their delegates. He might have a better chance here.
At any rate, McCain can't afford to take North Carolina for granted, and Obama would be foolish to concede it.
Here's to a vigorous and hard-fought presidential campaign -- in North Carolina!
Comments (3)
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I think Obama would have to spend every waking moment between now and November campaigning in North Carolina to beat McCain on this (recent) historically GOP turf.
Despite the state Democrats' love for Obama, look for NC to be a red state again in 2008.
Posted on June 5, 2008 9:42 AM
Theoretically, Obama only has to hold the states Kerry won in '04 and add Ohio to win. But he can't take that for granted.
The issue is not only can Obama carry North Carolina -- and I do think the answer is probably not -- but can he help North Carolina Dems if he campaigns here with them. I think he could make a positive difference for Kay Hagan and for congressional candidates Daniel Johnson (vs. Patrick McHenry) and Larry Kessler (vs. Robin Hayes). The more Dems in Congress, the better for President Obama -- especially so for the Senate. So he could visit North Carolina several times even if he's not really counting on getting North Carolina's electoral votes.
Posted on June 5, 2008 2:24 PM
Dome reports Obama is coming to Raleigh Monday:
http://projects.newsobserver.com/under_the_dome/obamas_coming_back_to_n_c
Posted on June 6, 2008 5:02 PM