A cloudy crystal ball for 2010
No question Roy Cooper would have been a strong candidate for Democrats against Republican Sen. Richard Burr next year. He led the statewide ballot last year in winning election to a third term as attorney general.
That's a job he likes, and it may be he's happy to stay there rather than endure what surely would be a hard-fought Senate campaign at the expense of family time and a comfortable life in Raleigh..
Maybe there were other reasons for him to decline. He's still embroiled in an eight-year-old defamation lawsuit. The upcoming investigations of former governor and fellow Democrat Mike Easley might have had some bearing on his decision.
That raises the question of who might be the Dems' Kay Hagan of 2010. Dome offers a long list of possibles. I'd say look for those who don't have anything to lose by running, which leaves out congressmen Brad Miller, Mel Watt and others who'd give up sure seats and seniority in the House of Representatives for maybe a 50-50 shot of beating Burr.
That's what I'm thinking now. Of course, two years ago Hagan hadn't launched her campaign yet. Elizabeth Dole still looked fairly strong, although she had big vulnerabilities just below the overly polished surface.
But 2008 was a big, big year for Democrats. They elected a president and muscled up in the House and Senate.
In 2010, not so much. Democrats don't really need to pick up Burr's seat. Of course they'd like to have it, and they might match the megamillions they spent tearing down Dole when they go after Burr. But in terms of raw emotional intensity, I doubt they'll ramp it up to the same pitch.
Republicans, on the other hand, have their backs to the wall. They'll likely fight desperately, savagely, to hold their seats in the Senate. And by Election Day 2010, they might regain their footing if it appears that this vast expanse of federal power wasn't such a good idea after all.
What am I saying? Trying to see the political landscape more than a year out is a foolish enterprise. Anything could happen -- even Cooper changing his mind about running.
Didn't Kay Hagan do that? And look where she is now.
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