It’s Election Day and for those of you finding your way to Inside Scoop for the first time, welcome. The News & Record will be posting reports from the polls (click here) throughout the day.
Right here, the News & Record’s government reporters will be posting analysis on key races and trends throughout the day and adding our thoughts as results come in this evening. Entries will be time-stamped and in reverse-chronological order. If you have a question you’d like answer, a report from the polls or something else on your mind please e-mail us at either mbinker@news-record.com or ewooten@news-record.com.
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12:20 p.m. This will be the final update of the evening. Guilford County's results are now all reported, with the exception of provisional ballots. The Historical Museum now leads by 142 votes. That's probably enough for it to win, but it is by no means guaranteed.
We don't know how many provisional ballots there are, but should find out tomorrow.
With 22 of 22 precincts reporting, Jim Black held a seven vote lead in his re-election bid.
11:12 p.m. Reporter Sue Schultz reports from the Guilford County courthouse after speaking with Elections Director George Gilbert:
- There is no count of how many provision ballots there are, but they could make a difference in the historical museum bond race.
- Curbside voting has not been added into the totals yet either, which could also affect close races.
- So why is it taking so long? "This year, there is just a lot more to process," Gilbert said. In years past, Guilford County only had to process a single cartridge from each precinct. This year, they are processing a cartridge, another electronic card and a paper record.
- Where's that last precinct? Apparently a machine in precinct G70 fell over and the screen broke and they're having to download the totals from the machine's memory rather than via cartridge. G70 covers part of east Greensboro.
11:06 p.m. With 21 of 22 precincts counted, House Speaker Jim Black trails in his re-election bid.
11:04 p.m. With one Greensboro precinct left to be counted, the Historical Museum bond trails by 50 votes.
You should note that provisional ballots weren't counted tonight. I don't know yet how many provision ballots - cast when a voter is not on a precincts poll book for some reason - are out there. If races remain tight, you should take into account the possibility of provisionals changing the outcome. That happened to former County Commissioner Trudy Wade, who won on election night but lost to John Parks when provisional ballots were counted later.
10:46 p.m. There are still a few precincts in Guilford County that have not been tallied yet. This is slower than in previous years.
10:45 p.m. Sen. Phil Berger on why Republicans didn't have a stronger showing Tuesday night: "I think early on things were such that there was a lot of reason to be optimistic. As the national situation for Republicans deteriorated, there was a significant component of that filtering down into state races."
10:43 p.m. With 19 of 22 precincts county, House Speaker Jim Black's lead has slipped back to 51 percent.
10:33 p.m. When asked why Jim Black's problems didn't weigh heavier on Democrats tonight, Rep. Nelson Cole of Rockingham said, "I think the people look at our representatives as being independent of the Speaker."
10:16 The Associated Press is reporting that Democrats will expand their lead in the state House, not lose control to Republicans.
10:08 With a 1,900-vote difference and only four precincts left to count, Bill Wright may not be able to make up the gap on Earl Jones in House District 60.
10:06With 14 or 22 precincts counted, embattled House Speaker Jim Black still leads in his reelection bid, with 54 percent of the vote.
9:57 Both state Sen. Phil Berger, a Republican, and Rep. Nelson Cole, a Democrat, appear to be headed back to Raleigh. With all of Rockingham County counted, both had wide leads. Both were strong incumbents with wide fund raising advantages who had worked on both local and statewide issues.
9:42 With 22 of 30 precincts county, Bill Wright is once again closing the gap on Democratic incumbent Earl Jones in House District 60. Jones led 56 to 44 percent.
9:35 With 9 of 22 precincts counted, House Speaker Jim Black has taken the lead in his re-election bid.
9:31 With nearly half of Greensboro's vote in, only the library, parks and recreation and fire station bonds are firmly on track to pass. I would chalk that up to those three being the easiest to understand the ones that people see themselves benefiting the most from. Other bond races are much closer.
9:27 Incumbents are leading the four Greensboro-based House races, with Rep. Maggie Jeffus having the most to worry about. But even she leads 60-to-40 percent with 12 or 29 precincts reporting.
9:03 With 4 of 22 precincts county, House Speaker Jim Black trails in his re-election bid but the race is close: 51-49 percent.
8:48 Not election related, but out of the Greensboro City Council meeting: RMA has said that Councilwoman T. Dianne Bellamy-Small was the source of the lead of the RMA report concerning former police chief David Wray. Check out news-record.com for updates on this shortly.
8:44 The Greensboro bond packages are recovering a bit from trailing in the early vote. It's still early yet, but mesures like the historical museum are gaining ground.
8:36 The AP has just called Howard Coble and Mel Watt's election in favor of the two incumbents.
8:22 Well, early vote, schmearly vote. Jones took back the lead in his race for House District 60 with three precincts reporting. I still think this is one to stay tuned to, though.
8:20 In Mecklenburg County, House Speaker Jim Black trailed Republican challenger Hal Jordan in the early vote. No Election Day precincts are in yet.
7:52 Again with the early voting: Republican Bill Wright is closer to Democratic Rep. Earl Jones than he should be based on voter registration in House District 60. Voter registration in that district is overwhelmingly Democratic, but Wright has taken 45 percent of the early vote. That’s an indication that it could be a long night for Jones.
7:43 Guilford County early voting results are in. At first blush, this does not look good for bond supporters. Only three bonds – fire stations, parks and recreation and libraries – lead in the early vote. The other eight are behind. But like the name says, it’s EARLY voting.
Early voting results don’t point to any surprises in the legislative or local campaigns.
7:36 More from Dole. She has been serving as the head of the Republican effort to elect Republican U.S. Senators. Over the past few weeks, she has sounded very confident about Republicans maintaining control of the Senate. Does she still have the same confidence?
“I do, I do,” Dole said. “We’ve got a number of tight races but I think there is a broad firewall so to speak.” Dole was referring to the fact that Democrats would have to win two out of three races in Virginia, Tennessee and Missouri while defending seats in places like Rhode Island were incumbents are vulnerable.
Dole recently said at the National Press Club that "Iraq has a great effect on the political environment, and it's the greatest issue on voters' minds.'' How much of a hurdle has it been for Republican Senate candidates.
“It’s certainly and issue but the important thing, the key is we must win this war and get our troops home a soon as possible … We don’t want to ever consider that we need to go back again.”
Dole said that while Iraq has been the national issue of import, Republicans in Senate campaigns have focused on comparing themselves to their Democratic opponents.
7:32 I just got off the phone with Sen. Dole. I’m still going back over my notes, but here’s what she said when I asked if she would run again in 2008:
"I've been raising funds for my race, so the answer is yes."
7:19 p.m. Our friends at the Associated Press have updated their turnout estimation, which now tracks better with what we've seen in Greensboro. From the AP:
RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — North Carolina voters arrived at the polls in surprisingly solid numbers Tuesday after election officials initially predicted one of the lowest turnouts in state history.
State elections director Gary Bartlett, who had expected that less than 40 percent of eligible voters would cast a ballot, said a number of counties were reporting robust returns despite a short ballot and lots of Election Day rainfall.
7:16 p.m. Chewie World Order has pictures of the double-Coble listing on the sample ballot that we wrote about here in our 12:49 update.
7:14 p.m. A flash from Rockingham reporter Gerald Witt:
Rockingham County school board candidate Ron Price was picked up by police for pulling up campaign signs for Brad Miller, the incumbent Democrat in North Carolina’s 13th congressional district.
Price said that he had just placed signs supporting Miller’s Republican opponent Vernon Robinson hours earlier along N.C. 14 on Monday.
“The (Robinson) signs that I was putting out were being replaced by Miller signs,” Price said Tuesday. So he took up the Miller signs and stuck his Robinson signs back in the ground.
Meanwhile, someone spotted Price and followed his car. Price then went to the Reidsville Police Department, where Royce Richardson, head of the county’s Democratic Party, declined to press charges, according to Reidsville police. Price had five Miller signs in his trunk.
Price said that he didn’t know that stealing campaign signs was against the law.
“I wouldn’t intentionally break the law,” Price said.
7:01 p.m. Are you looking for returns. Courtesy of online guru Mike Grossman, we’ve got your returns right here:
6:15 p.m.Scoop central is going to take a break. to carbo-load and swill some coffee. We’re planning to be back shortly after 7 p.m., hopefully with some quotes and perspective from U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole. We will break back before then in if something comes up. E-mail tips and suggestions to mbinker@news-record.com.
5:55 p.m. From our friends at the Associated Press:
RALEIGH (AP) - It was hard for candidate to catch up with voters Tuesday, given that many would run from their car to the polling place to escape the rain. But Rep. Brad Miller was swerving around the front entrance of Creedmoor Elementary school with his hand outstretched.
Voters were always cordial. When Creedmoor resident Ellen Poe passed the congressman on the way into the school, she smiled and shook his hand. It didn't matter that her stiff conservative stances differed greatly from the Democrat's views.
"People have been very nice," Miller said, holding an umbrella and dressed in yellow rain garb. "Many people have said they'll vote for me ... although you never know."
That's the awkward part of the handshake greeting. As one woman opened her car door to leave in polling place, she gave a smiling waive back at the small crowd in front of the school.
"Don't get wet," she said to no one in particular.
"I don't think she voted for me," Miller said out of the side of his mouth. "Still being nice, though."
5:04 p.m. Folks who work office jobs will be leaving for the day right about ... now. And at least some of them will be heading to the polls. Traditionally this is the start of the evening rush hour at polling places.
So far, Guilford County’s electronic voting machines seem to be operating as expected and able to handle the rush, with problems here and there related to the paper trail. Guilford County’s voting machines are computer touch screen devices but produce a paper record of the voter’s ballot.
“I would say that most of problems are because of our printers,” Charlie Collicutt, Guilford County's deputy elections director. Voting slows down when several of the printers in a precinct run out of paper at once, he said. And there are the occasional printer jams to deal with today, Collicutt said.
If you haven’t voted yet, the polls close at 7:30 p.m.
4:04 p.m. More from Gerald Witt up in Rockingham:
Janet Odell, director of the Rockingham County Board of Elections, expects about 45 percent of registered voters in the county will turn out. She worried that rain would push voters away.
"It has not let up," she said, talking about the what many local election officials see as stronger than expected turn out. But the rain hasn’t lessened much, either.
Showers are forecasted for the Triad through the evening, according to www.weather.com, so take a jacket if you plan to vote after work.
3:59 p.m. From the 12th Congressional District race between Democratic incumbent Mel Watt and Ada Fisher, Fisher writes:
Dr. Ada M. Fisher, the 2006 NC 12th US Congressional District Republican candidate was early in the line to vote at approximately 0645 hours today and had to smile shaking her head when the automated voting machine rejected first the lady in front of her and then her ballot.
Click here for the full release from Fisher's campaign web site.
3:26 p.m. From Rockingham government reporter Gerald Witt:
No matter what happens in Rockingham County’s local elections, there will be some rookies headed to public office.
None of the four county commissioner candidates have held a public office before. And the two men currently holding the seats up in today’s election, Chairman Jerry Owens and Commissioner Keith Duncan, are not seeking re-election.
Only two of the 16 school board candidates have public office experience. Reida Drum was appointed to the school board in 2001, elected in 2002, but lost in 2004. Steve C. Smith sat on the Eden School Board for 12 years before the countywide school board merger. There are five open at-large seats.
2:47 p.m. Our friends at the Associated Press continue to report that statewide turnout is expected to be low. From the AP:
State elections director Gary Bartlett, noting only minor start-up glitches at polling places, said just a few counties had solid early returns. Bartlett has predicted that less than 40 percent of eligible voters will cast a ballot — lower than 1994 — when 42 percent voted.
"It seems like it's a routine opening for an election," he said. "We're hoping for some good numbers, but history is against us."
That is counter to our experience in Greensboro today, where the 11 bond issues on the city’s ballot seem to be drawing voters to the polls. Poll workers are reporting heavier than usual turnout for an off-year election.
2:37 p.m.Courts reporter Jonathan Jones has fielded a couple questions that go something like: “I wanted to vote in the Stuart Albright – Susan Bray judicial race, but it wasn’t on my ballot. What gives?”
What gives is those folks don’t live in judicial district 18C, where that Superior Court race is taking place. Roughly speaking, the district includes Stokesdale, parts of western Greensboro and Jamestown.
1:23 p.m. Over at the Capital Beat blog I reported yesterday that The Rothenberg Political Report has just moved the N.C. House from a “toss up” to leans Democratic.
What that means is that barring something wired happening to today, a combination of polling and factors on the ground suggest Democrats will have the better day. Oddly enough, it probably has nothing to do with anything they did in the legislature this year.
National pollsters are looking at numbers that say Democrats are more motivated to vote in Congressional races than Republicans. And they expect that someone who goes to the polls to vote Democratic in one race isn’t going to ticket split in contests lower down on the ballot.
I think that logic holds to a point here. But remember, this is the same state that elected President Bush and Gov. Mike Easley in the same election – twice – so it’s not like Tar Heels haven’t been know to split a ticket or two.
1:08 p.m. Lex Alexander logs into our comments section (click here) to report:
I voted just after 10:30 a.m. at First Lutheran, where I've voted for about 7 years now, including two presidential elections. I usually vote about that same time every election (the advantage of having to work on Election Night) if I don't have to take the kids to school, and I have never had more than five voters ahead of me.
1:03 p.m. In case you missed it, click here for the Election Day version of Inside Scoop’s print incarnation. It includes this gem from Margaret Banks:
So where will members of Greensboro City Council be tonight, the night the community decides whether to give them permission to borrow money for 11 different projects? Watching returns at the courthouse? Schmoozing for last-minute votes? Hanging with fellow bond supporters?
Nope. They’ll be at City Hall plowing through rezoning cases during their regular meeting. If there are no voting machine foul-ups, they may still be in session after the votes are tallied.
12:59 p.m. Election Day in the lagoon (click here) might hit a bit too close to home for some.
12:49 p.m. This fits somewhere between goofy screw-up and actual voting irregularity.
Every year, the Guilford County Board of Elections hands out sample ballots. This year's are on bright yellow paper.
Well, if you read the sample ballot in some precincts, Republican Congressman Howard Coble is running against... Republican Congressman Howard Coble.
Democrat Rory Blake, Coble’s actual opponent, shows up on the real ballots in the voting machines. But Blake is livid about the screw up.
"If it’s in every damned precinct, it's an awful problem," Blake said when I caught up with him at the Board of Elections office in downtown Greensboro. "This is what's given out by the Board of Elections, it’s just not right."
Blake is concerned that people may be using the sample ballot because this year’s voting has so many choices.
Elections Director George Gilbert said the sample ballots were taken from an earlier draft that had been corrected. When asked how many of the errant samples were handed out, Gilbert said, "That's what I'm trying to find out."
Before I left the BOE office, I saw workers printing up correct sample ballots for at least one precinct.
As for Blake, he's convinced voters have come out to vote for a change in Washington.
"They came out to send a message to Washington," he said. Then pointing to the misprinted ballots, he said, "That's a hell of a message isn't it?"
12:12 p.m. County Government reporter Nate DeGraff has this to say about the sheriff’s race:
Democrat Berkley Blanks is trying to unseat a guy who’s been called the county’s most powerful politician: Republican BJ Barnes.
To do so, the challenger will have to get people from his own party to vote for him. Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 3-to-2 margin in Guilford, but Barnes wooed enough Dems to pick up 65 percent of the vote when these two ran against each other in 2002.
Blanks hopes to take advantage of what he sees as discontent with Republicans nationally to cut into that margin.
12:04 p.m. We’ve had a report from one of our staff members that she was asked for a photo identification to vote when she went to the Alamance County precinct where she has voted for several years. This shouldn’t happen.
The only time you should be asked for identification at the polls (according to GS: 163-166.12) is when you have registered to vote by mail or in person but have not previously shown photo ID. From the state law:
(a) Voting in Person. - An individual who has registered to vote by mail on or after January 1, 2003, and has not previously voted in an election that includes a ballot item for federal office in North Carolina, shall present to a local election official at a voting place before voting there one of the following:
(1) A current and valid photo identification.
(2) A copy of one of the following documents that shows the name and address of the voter: a current utility bill, bank statement, government check, paycheck, or other government document.
Otherwise, the law says you should be able to vote by giving a poll worker your name and address.
11:25 a.m. From our friends at the Associated Press:
ASHEVILLE, N.C. (AP) — With no national or high-profile statewide races to top ballots and rain falling across North Carolina, Election Day started slow on Tuesday and turnout was expected to reach lows not seen in the state since the 1920s.
That put the onus on campaigns and parties to get their base voters to the polls Tuesday in a midterm election where more than 3 million potential voters were expected to stay home.
Meanwhile, reports from local precincts continue to show that turn out is pretty strong.
11:12 a.m. City government reporter Margaret Banks has been following the 11 bond issues on the Greensboro ballot today. She had this to say:
It’s fair to say there has been no organized opposition to any of the 11 bond projects on today’s ballot.
But a couple of bonds go into Election Day without a key last-minute endorsement.
Late last week, the powerful Simkins Political Action Committee endorsed nine of the projects. Left out in the cold: the $9 million swimming center and the $5 million public building renovation bonds.
Pool supporters have touted the center as a place where minority youth could take swimming lessons.
The Simkins PAC is named for Dr. George Simkins, a local African-American dentist and early civil rights leader. Endorsements from the Simkins PAC usually carry significant weight in the black community.
It will be interesting to see how the endorsement – or, rather, the lack of an endorsement – affects the two projects in predominantly black precincts.
10:31 a.m. From County Government reporter Nate DeGraff: Incumbency is great, ain’t it?
All three Guilford County commissioners hoping to defend their seats - Democrats Kay Cashion (District 6) and Carolyn Coleman (District 9) and Republican Linda Shaw (District 3) – are nestled in districts comfortably drawn to their liking. Lots of people registered with their party, a lot less with their opponent’s party.
Look for the closest race in northwest Guilford’s District 3, where Democrat Ray Riffe has rivaled Shaw’s fundraising totals and is at less of a voter-registration disadvantage than the other two challengers, Republican Vernon Ward (Dist. 9) and Democrat Lonnie Albright (Dist. 6).
Shaw defeated three other Republicans in the May primary, but she picked up just 42 percent of the vote.
Two High Point commissioners, Democrat Bruce Davis and Republican Steve Arnold, are running unopposed.
10:25 a.m. Guilford County election officials are reporting that all is going smoothly so far.
"I’ve not heard anything of any machine malfunctions that would have delayed voters," said Charlie Collicutt, Guilford County's deputy elections director.
10:05 a.m. Well, rain has been falling off and on all morning, depending where in the Triad you happen to be out and about. Still, turnout at the polls seems pretty brisk at voting locations our reporters have visited so far.
That’s a bit counter to the conventional wisdom, which says that rainy, cold weather will suppress turnout. Of course, there’s no way of knowing how many more people would have showed up if it were a sunny day.
This is already supposed to be a low turnout election because there is no statewide partisan headliner on the ballot – no president or governor whipping up state-wide fervor to go the polls. The rain now adds to that expectation turnout will be low.
The lower turnout goes, the more chance there is of something unexpected happening, like an incumbent falling or a Republican winning a race in a district that leans Democratic.
I would say our freaky forecast says there’s a 40 percent chance that some supposedly safe incumbent will be making a concession speech in Guilford County tonight.