I'm going to try to explain the logic behind my pick in N.C. State's game at Boston College on Saturday.
As a wise man once said - perhaps just before cracking a coconut over the head of Jimmy "Superfly" Snuka - "Just when you think you know the answers, I change the questions!
The same could be said for the Wolfpack this season. Just when we think we know what this team is really about, they turn in a performance that throws our previous assumptions out the window.
After State narrowly lost to Virginia Tech, this looked like a team that could make a run for the ACC title game in Jacksonville. The exuberance in Raleigh didn't seem that irrational.
Two weeks later, State laid an egg in the second half against UNC. The second half was so bleak - the offense stagnated, the defense was a sieve - that we all knew what was going to happen the next week at Georgia Tech. Plus, the Wolfies never won in Atlanta.
So what happened? Yep, State pulled off the win.
That gave the Pack plenty of momentum heading home to play Clemson. A tight contest was expected by all, so naturally, State got clubbed, 31-10. Worse yet, State's run defense was horrid against Clemson. One could only imagine how bad it would be against Wake's vaunted misdirection.
Of course, State stuffed Wake's running game. Nine times out of 10, if the Wolfies hold in the Deacs in check on the ground, they win. This was that one other time, thanks to horrid quarterback play.
Everyone spent the next week wondering just how well a new QB - Marcus Stone - would play against Southern Miss. Everyone left that game talking about how well the new RB - Andre Brown - ran in the 21-17 win.
Still, we all knew that Brown couldn't duplicate such an effort against FSU's stingy D. Naturally, that's just what Brown did in the 20-15 upset.
Sensing a pattern here? Take the conventional wisdom, stand it on its head, and you have State's performance in almost every game this season.
That brings us back to Boston College. State's on a roll now, so you would think that you'd want to go against the expected and pick the Eagles to dominate in Chestnut Hill.
You'd think. But by now, State has done the unexpected so many times that it's become, well, expected. So in reality, the unexpected thing here for State would be to actually follow the apparent trend and continue to play well, knocking off the Eagles.
In other words, the unexpected thing here is to do the expected, rather than unexpected, which we've all come to expect from State.
Got it? Remember, you heard it heard it here first.