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Well, six out of eight World Cup quarterfinalists predicted correctly wasn't bad. But two out of four in the semis -- and my World Cup champion, Brazil, gone -- is not much stronger than the performance the U.S. team turned in during the group stage in Germany.

The only teams I have left are the host, Germany, and France. And I had them playing each other in a semifinal, with Germany winning. Basically, my bracket is busted and my face is redder than a Spain home jersey.

I'll be back later today with a look at the semifinal matchups and a chance to embarrass myself further.

Just as I was about to crank out my cycling geek knowledge, Carlton goes and links to the blog of fellow N&R staffer Charlie Stafford.

I will not be fazed. And yes, even though Wimbledon is rolling - I've got some thoughts on that as well - and the World Cup is at the semifinals stage, I will also offer some opinions and maybe a little insight on the Tour as well.

Unlike Charlie, the loss of Ivan Basso and Ullrich hasn't sapped my enthusiasm. While the huge doping scandal will certainly put an asterisk on this year's tour, it's also opened it wide open. And this, after the retirement of Lance Armstrong already brought a huge dose of parity to the race.

Basso was my pre-race favorite, with Ullrich close on his heels. Now? I have no idea. But I do think it means an American could very well be at the top of the podium. Floyd Landis (provided he can show up the remaining stages ON TIME) Levi Leipheimer and big George Hincapie (Greenville, S.C. represent!) are all in the group of favorites. Heck, as Charlie mentioned briefly, Bobby Julich could become the new team leader for CSC now that Basso's out. Don't forget, once upon a time Julich actually finished third in the tour.

Here's a question for you cycling experts out there - and yes, Charlie you're allowed to answer as well. What about Alejandro Valverde? He looked very promising last year, yet I haven't seen him mentioned as a possible race favorite. Maybe I just missed it. But the guy was dynamite last year - winning the 10th stage after a sprint with Armstrong - before a knee injury forced him out. I'd think he'd probably be the guy to beat unless his team just absolutely stinks.

I wanted to post this over the weekend, after Andre Agassi bowed out to Rafael Nadal but, well, I've got two kids under the age of two and ... do I really have to spell the rest out for you?

Anyway, I'm now safely - and quietly - back at work, which allows me a few moments to reflect on Agassi, who played his final Wimbledon match on Saturday.

I don't think I've ever reversed my opinion on an athlete quite like I have with Agassi. Growing up, when I was playing junior tennis, I HATED Agassi.

I hated his moussed two-tone mullet. I hated his denim shorts with the bike pants beneath them. I hated his "Image is Everything" ad campaign for Cannon, which just seemed to confirm my belief that he was all flash and no substance. I hated that the media seemed to be in love with him while shunning players who weren't as flashy - like Courier and Sampras - but were clearly better.

Most of all, I hated that Agassi was spawning legions of wanna-bes on the junior circuit, long on attitude and loud colors and short on sportsmanship.

Now? I'm going to really miss the guy. Not just because there isn't anyone from the U.S. - and I mean no one - who's ready to take the mantle as the best American in tennis.

Even in the early days, when Agassi was at his most obnoxious, I always respected his talent and enjoyed watching him play. He was a freak of nature, hitting balls so early and so hard from both sides. He was proof that you could be a power player from the baseline, as evidenced by his 1992 win at Wimbledon, which he won with no net game and without much of a serve.

Still, he was destined to be a guy remembered for squandering his once-in-a-generation talent until something happened. Something changed. What was it exactly? I don't know. And maybe that's the secret. Rather than undergoing some cataclysm that might bring about only short-term change, Agassi seemed to go through a longer metamorphosis that clearly took.

Famous for his junk food diet, he got in shape. Known for ducking Wimbledon, he started showing up, even wearing - gasp! - the traditional white. He started to show respect for the game, its traditions and its elders. And he started to win, a lot. (Oh yeah, he also shaved his mullet, thank goodness).

The one thing that didn't change was his popularity. Agassi didn't have to be a bad boy, a la Connors or McEnroe, to win the hearts of fans and media members. He proved himself to be a thoughtful, interesting interview. And his brand of tennis was as attractive as ever.

Sampras always remained my guy in the big tournaments, but I found myself rooting for Agassi whenever he wasn't playing Big Pete. And on Saturday, I was absolutely behind Agassi when he fell to Nadal, the kind of player whose game was clearly influenced by Agassi - even though the Spaniard was only six when Agassi won Wimbledon.

Now I've got to find someone else to cheer for among the Americans. Roddick? I don't think he's ever going to live up to the hype. Blake? Very likeable, but apparently very limited in his potential. Anyone else? Helllooooo?

For now, I'll have to settle for appreciating Federer's dominance. And I'll look forward to Agassi's goodbye tour at the U.S. Open, where I hope he rides off into the sunset with one more major title.

It's probably best that I've waited two days to rant about England's loss to Portugal. What could have been a 5,000 word diatribe will be toned down to a cliff notes version.

a) Wayne Rooney is an idiot and a thug.

b) SGE (my version of the England manager's name, Sven Goran Eriksson) is a moron for only bringing four strikers to Germany, with one of them being a teenager - Theo Walcott - who was clearly not ready for this stage. When Owen went down and Rooney went off, all England was left with was the Stork, Peter Crouch. Yippee.

c) SGE is an idiot for having Frank Lampard take the first PK of the shootout. The man hadn't put a shot on goal the entire freaking tourney. His confidence was clearly gone. Yet he's the guy you want setting the tone? Nice.

d) Please explain SGE's substition of Carragher for Lennon late in OT. Why take out one of the few sets of fresh legs - as well as clearly the best player on the pitch at the time - just before the shootout? Was it because Carragher is some sort of PK expert? Based on his effort - and I use that word loosely - let's hope not.

e) I'd comforted myself with England's exit by repeating that it didn't matter because Brazil was going to win the whole thing. Then Team Samba bows out to France, 1-0. Aarrrrrggggh.

f) At least Thierry Henry scored the goal for France. Did I mention he plays for Arsenal?

g) By the way, SGE thinks he did everything perfectly. Of course he does.

I'm back after spending most of last week down in the native land, aka South Carolina. It was a good time - I'm sure you were dying to know - but I've got to do a better job of planning out my travel times. I drove down to South Carolina on Tuesday - missing all but the final seconds of Italy's semifinal win over Germany - and drove back home on Sunday - missing the entire World Cup final. So, unfortunately I don't have much to offer in the way of opinions about the Azzurri winning it all or about Zidane losing his mind.

I do have a couple of World Cup links of interest though. First, non soccer-fan Bill Simmons of ESPN.com explains why he likes the World Cup. I'm a bit more of a soccer guy than Bill but I echo many of his sentiments. I too will miss getting up in the morning and getting to watch live sports on tv while working.

Then Bill Syken, he of the Scorecard Daily at SI.com, opines on the negative effect this World Cup could have on MLS.

I'm afraid Syken may have a point. With its wall-to-wall coverage ESPN has likely brought in more non-soccer fans, like Simmons, who are enthralled by the passion of the World Cup. But they're also asking this questions - how good can the MLS really be if it can only produce a handful of players on the also-ran U.S. squad? As Syken points out, all other major U.S. sports leagues feature the best in the world. As much progress as the MLS has made, it's nowhere near the talent of leagues like the Premier League in England or the Serie A in Italy.

Perhaps the biggest snub for the MLS came when former French national team member Youri Djorkaeff, a hero of Les Bleus' 1998 World Cup title run, told his current team New York Red Bull, that he had to go home to attend to an urgent personal matter. That matter, as cameras revealed, was apparently watching France play Brazil in the quarterfinals. Whoops.

Oh, but never fear, reports are now surfacing that Zidane, who was supposedly done with soccer after the World Cup, may actually finish out his days in the MLS.

U.S. professional soccer: retirement home to the stars.

You'd think having the full use of your right hip would be a pretty essential part of being a top-flight cyclist.

Apparently not if your Floyd Landis. The No. 2 guy right now in the Tour de France - perhaps even the favorite right now - reveals in this New York Times magazine piece (I think you can access it without registering) that he's riding on a rapidly decaying hip that he will replace with an artificial model in August.

How this is possible - unless the nerve endings in Floyd's legs are also gone - is beyond me.

As Jeff Carlton mentioned, is it posssible to have an American cyclist without an accompanying sob story? First Lemond's hunting accident, then Armstrong's cancer, now Floyd's hip.

... at least not in the Sports Department. But a nameless copy editor in the news room sent me this link for a game in which you can re-enact Zidane's headbutt on Materazzi.

Speaking of Materazzi, he admits that he did insult Zidane - surprise! - but denies calling the French midfielder - who is of Algerian descent - a "terrorist."

Naturally, the mayor of Rome has also felt compelled to weigh in on the matter. Siiggggh.

Actually asst. sports editor John Newsom - aka the Spotter - had a stronger term, but we run a family blog here.

Newsom was referring to the July cover of Cycle Sport America magazine. Just go through the checklist of contenders listed- out, out, injured, still in , still in and out. Gee, thanks.

Now, I feel for the poor saps who paid money for the magazine and are now reading previews of a race that no longer resembles anything we expected. But who do I really feel sorry for? My fellow sportswriters of course. The Tour de France is THE event in competitive cycling - I don't want to hear any different from you fat-tire junkies. I would imagine these guys spent months compiling the info that went into this magazine, which is probably far and away the best selling issue of the year. Now, it's all for naught.

It's like pouring your heart and soul into a preview edition of the ACC tournament only to have six teams lose three starters apiece due to eligibility issues on the eve of the event. Only worse.

What's that? You actually want to know about what's going with the Tour and not with the lives of ink-stained wretches? Okay, fine.

(SPOILER ALERT for those who haven't already watched the Tour today. Although, if you pass up watching Phil Ligett and Paul Sherwin and settle on Bob Rolle and Al Trautwig, I urge you to seek professional help immediately.)

Four weird things about today's tour.

1) Somebody actually donned one of those fake sumo outfits and showed up roadside in the Pyrenees to root on the riders. Weird? Yes. Surprising, given that some German dude dresses up as a devil and runs alongside riders every freaking year? Not really.

2) Poor Sergei Gonchar (the yellow jersey wearer, Jeff Carlton, not the former Washington Capitals defenseman.) Has anyone gone faster from cycling's penthouse to its proverbial outhouse? The guy starts the day wearing the maillot jaune. Midway through the stage his team makes it clear it's not chasing the breakaway and are thus abandoning any defense of Gonchar's jersey. By the end, we see Gonchar drifting pack to the team car to pick up fresh water bottles for all of his teammates - the ultimate domestique duty. When's the last time you saw the yellow jersey wearer have to perform such a menial job.

3) What's up with Levi Leipheimer? First, he looked terrible in the time trial, dropping behind the yellow jersey by over six minutes. Then, he gets dropped on the second climb today. Granted, he caught back up on the descent, but tomorow's stage is supposed to be the killer - not today's. Did this guy really win the Dauphine Libere? Are we sure? I'm ready to write him off as a contender. Might be time to sneak over the border into Spain to see one of its cycling friendly doctors. I kid, only because I care.

4) At least Levi's not Iban Mayo. What happened to this guy? He looked awful in the 2005 tour, yet Bicycling magazine touts him as a contender this year, crowing that Rabobank's Michael Rasmussen only dreams of climbing as well as Mayo. Sure, if that dream is a nightmare. Mayo got dropped early in today's stage and never recovered, finishing over 24 minutes behind the winners, with the straggler pack normally reserved for beefy sprinters and burnt out domestiques. Way to go, Mayo.

That weirdness aside, there wasn't much drama in the first mountain stage. Maybe the big boys were saving themselves for tomorrow's stage, which, I'm told, is supposed to be a killer. Look for someone among the contenders to make a move then.

Who, you ask, are the real contenders now? Good question. Here's a short, very inexact, list.

Andreas Kloden and Michael Rogers, T-Mobile - Two strong riders from the tour's strongest team. I pick Kloden over Rogers, if only because Bob Rolle keeps calling Rogers, "Mick Rogers." What, were they frat brothers in college?

Paolo Salvadelli, George Hincapie and Yaroslay Popyvych, Discovery - I'll be honest here folks. Until Disco sorts out which one of these three is going to be the main guy, I don't see any of them making a serious run for the yellow jersey. My heart though is with Hincapie - big shout out for Greenville, South Carolina! Represent!

Vladimir Karpets, Caisse d'Epargne-Illes Balears. - Didn't this guy once win the white jersey - given to the best young rider in the Tour - a few years back? He's been a consistent top finisher and now that his team leader, Valverde, is out of the race, Karpets can devote his full energy toward chasing a podium spot. I'd like him more if he'd just get a haircut.

Cadel Evans, Davitaman-Lotto - He was a top-10 guy last year and Phil and Paul seem to love him. I can't help wonder if there's a little pro-Commonwealth bias seeping in there, though.

Floyd Landis, Phonak - My pick to click. Provided his hip doesn't crack.

Not exactly a huge list is it? Throw in Denis Menchov off Rabobank and Carlos Sastre off CSC if you feel so inclined. Maybe even Juan Miguel Mercado from Agritubel (what is that, a water pipe company?) as well.

And maybe even Levi ... nahhh.

I've already seen how Stage 11 ends and I'm not holding my comments until the rest of you saps suffer through Rolle and Trautwig this evening.

Folks, it was Disco Demolition day in the Pyrenees. Remember how I liste d three possible contenders from the Discovery team yesterday? Scratch all of them. The only guy who showed any spark in the mountains was Jose Azevedo. But he still finished 4 minutes behind the leaders and is just 18th overall.

Of course, he looked like Bernard freaking Hinault compared to his teammates. Most disappointing was big George Hincapie, who finished over 21 minutes behind the stage winner, Denis Menchov. George, I'm revoking your status as an honorary Sandlapper.

Speaking of Menchov, I'm glad I at least saved partial face by throwing in his name at the very bottom of my list of contenders. Perhaps if I had consulted my trustee Yahoo profile and realized the guy won the Tour of Spain previously, I might not have been so blase about him. Now? I think he's got definite podium potential. Heck, he might be the biggest threat to the race leader. Who is ...

(building drama)

Floyd Landis! Yep, as we head into Bastille Day, yet another American is leading the Tour de France! The French haven't been this distraught over a sporting event disaster since, well, since earlier this week.
Floyd looked smooth throughout the stage, which was unreal in its difficulty (one beyond category climb followed by four cat 1 climbs. Who designed this stage, the Marquis de Sade?). Granted, wide time swings can happen in the mountains - just ask Hincapie - and the Alps are still out there, but Floyd's got the best combo of time-trialing skill and climbing prowess out there. I'll echo the sentiments of fellow N&R staffer Charlie Stafford, who thinks that Floyd will win and be joined on the podium by Menchov and Cadel Evans (hey, maybe Phil and Paul DO know what they're talking about!)

What does that mean? Not much at this point. But hey, what's a blog without reckless predictions?

For example, I completely wrote off Levi Leipheimer yesterday, and he stuck it back in my face by almost winning today's stage. Thanks to his disappearance from the earlier time trial, he's still not going to win this tour - unless he goes Pantani on us in the Alps - but he's back to respectability, jumping from the 50's to No. 13 overall, 5:39 behind Landis.

One final note, a sad and cynical one. As Rabobank rider Michael Boogerd was pacing his guy Menchov up the mountains, Paul and Phil were gushing about how well Boogerd was riding and how unexpected his impressive performance was. All of which naturally had me wondering whether Boogerd's doping.

That's not a personal attack on Boogerd - although he is from the Netherlands, a country with a long, infamous history for better performance through chemistry. It's just a sad commentary on the state of cycling right now, where every achievement is now greeted with a good deal of skepticism.

It's official. Bruce Arena's contract as head coach of the U.S. men's national soccer team has not been renewed in the wake of the team's disappointing performance at the World Cup in Germany.

Everyone from U.S. Soccer Federation President Sunil Gulati to Arena himself made nice-nice at the noon news conference, but clearly these folks won't be exchanging Christmas cards.

Where does that leave a U.S. men's program that will have to replace a host of aging "stars" (Claudio Reyna, Kasey Keller, Brian McBride and High Point's own Eddie Pope) before WC 2010 qualifying begins sometime in 2008?

The obvious front-runner for the job is now-former Germany coach Jurgen Klinsmann. The former world-class striker and diver (sorry, but he really knew how to draw a penalty or yellow card) said he was burned out when he stepped down after the hosts' third-place finish at this year's World Cup. But if the money is right, it's hard to believe that Klinsmann, a year-round California resident with an American wife and children who are U.S. citizens, wouldn't relish the chance to work in the States.

It's more likely that Klinsmann will take a vacation and let the dust settle, lest he look like a mercenary to the folks back in the Fatherland for leaving Die Mannschaft, before opening the bidding for his services. The guy is only 41 and he will coach again soon. It's just a matter of where.

It didn't take long for soccer journalists to start throwing around other names of potential successors to Arena. ESPN.com's Kristian Dyer did a pretty thorough job of handicapping the early-line favorites back on July 2 and his assessment is worth reading again.

His most intriguing name might be former England boss Sven-Goran Eriksson, but I just can't picture the Swede fitting in with the U.S. soccer culture.

Whomever takes the job needs to make some tough decisions on player personnel and the direction of the team. If it were me, I'd start by throwing Freddy Adu into the fire in the next year or so to see if he's ready to take on a greater role. Maybe even a leadership role, as crazy as that may sound.

After Landon Donovan's disappearing act in Germany, the next U.S. coach will need to build around a creative player with some attitude. Adu is still only 17, but I think he's already more mature than Donovan.

Maturity is the question for another player who could take on a central role with the national team. Barely halfway through the same MLS season in which he was suspended for the opener after punching out his team captain during practice, Clint Dempsey has been sent off again -- this time by the league. His recent "attack" on a Chicago Fire defender during a game prompted a two-game suspension from MLS action.

Yes, this is the same Clint Dempsey whose rap recording was used in Nike commercials to promote the national team. The same Dempsey who learned not along after the commercial was completed that the rapper with whom he shard the mic, fellow Texas native Big Hawk, had been gunned down in a drive-by. The same Dempsey who lost his older sister to a brain aneurysm when they were teenagers and who pays tribute to her at her grave in the closing images of the rap video.

It seems as if Dempsey hasn't just been getting in touch with his innter thug this year, he has him on speed-dial. But for all his volatility, Dempsey also has the talent and the heart to provide the spark the team sometimes needs. Witness his goal against Ghana (the only U.S. goal actually scored by a U.S. player in Germany).

The new coach will need to nurture Dempsey's obvious talent while also harnessing his fiery personality.

And that's just for openers. It won't be any easy job for Klinsmann or anyone else, but it's a job with a lot of potential. Here's hoping the federation finds the right man.

That's right Francophiles of the world (that means you Jeff Carlton), it's Bastille Day!

Speaking of which, why not replace that wussy national anthem with the old Rush tune from the Caress of Steel album (I'm really dating myself)?

But I digress. It's always a very big deal for a Frenchman to try to win on Bastille Day, particularly nowadays since the French can't seem to get anywhere close to actually winning the Tour. Alas, the best the home team could muster was fourth place. Sacre Bleu! Oh la vache!

The winner was actually Yaroslav Popovych of the Discovery team, a feat that simultaneously boosted the morale of the American team while killing all the "Disco Inferno" cracks I was set to make after Thursday's debacle in the Pyrenees.

I don't know if team manager Johann Bruyneel was playing possum when he basically conceded that no one on Discovery had a chance to win the tour, but Popo looked like a completely different rider on Friday. It's not often that a guy who's still theoretically in the hunt - he started Stage 12 nine minutes back of Floyd Landis - can cut half of his deficit on a non-mountain stage. Maybe Floyd's not that worried about Popovych, but I think it illustrates that a) everybody was too gassed from the hellish Stage 11 to put up much of a fight and b) Popo's still a pretty darned good rider and a future threat to win the Tour, just not this year's version.

So Team Disco now has a guy in the top 10, as well as a stage win, another near win in the prologue and had a guy - Hincapie - in the yellow for a day. No, it's not the domination of the previous seven years, but it's still respectable. By no means is the team a has-been. Disco ain't dead. Okay, I'll stop the disco references - for now.

It was also a good thing that Popovych and the rest of the four-man breakaway were able to fend off the peloton, because these flat stages after the Pyrenees and before the Alps have the potential to be some of the most anti-climactic moments of the Tour, unless you really, really, really get into the battle for the green jersey. Usually nothing much happens in the way of a GC shakeup during this time.

I'm still sticking with Landis, Menchov and Evans as my podium finish although - after glancing again at the results from Thursday's stage - I'm reminded how much one good day in the mountains - or one bad day - can make a massive difference in time.

Once again, you gotta love YouTube. I missed the spectacular crash in Sunday's Tour. No worries, it's right here - complete with commentary in french, no less.

Here's the amazing thing about it. The guy who takes the most spectacular plunge is Matthia Kessler, in the pink T-Mobile jersey. Yet he managed to - I'm not making this up - get back on his bike and finish the race.

The other two crashees? Not so lucky. The first one to kiss the guardrail is actually the guy on the right of your screen, in the white Cofidis jersey. Poor Rik Verbrugghe sustained a fracture of his left femur and is done for the year. The next guy to hit the brakes - and then the pavement was David Canada, in the yellow Saunier Duval team. He skids out, braking his collarbone in the process.

Canada's fall forced Kessler to swerve and hit the brakes. But his momentum carried him over the guardrail and then his handlebars in spectuclar fashion.

The culprit? The same stuff that tragically altered Joseba Beloki's career a few years ago - and forced Lance Armstrong into his famous detour through the fields. Apparently the roads in this part of France are, well, crappy. When it gets hot, like it has been during this stretch of the Tour, the tar on the roads begins to melt. The sticky surface becomes a nightmare for the cyclists, particularly when they're descending. All it takes is for a tire to adhere to that melted tar at the right time and WIPEOUT.

Why allow such an important race to be run over substandard roads? Excellent question.

Time to hit the Alps tomorrow!

Which leads us to this question - How do you solve a problem like Pereiro? (Man, I'm showing off my versatility here, aren't I?)

Apparently Floyd Landis didn't think handing over a half hour of time to his former teammate was that big of a deal. Actually, some think Phonak might have done it on purpose for its old buddy, Oscar. I'm telling you, Oliver Stone would fit in very well with this Tour crowd.

Speaking of which here's a link that John Newsom mentioned in his reply to an earlier blog item. It touches on the "Let's give Oscar a big present" rumor as well as one that might have a bit more teeth.

Seems that the Lampre director was steamed when his guy didn't win the stage that eventually went to Popovych. He accused Popovych of working with a member of Rabobank in return for helping out Denis Menchov later on in the mountains.

I know, I know, it sounds like the sourest of sour grapes - but hear me out. Disco's director, Johann Bruyneel and Rabo's main guy, Erik Breukink are former teammates on the old Once team. And Landis left team discovery on not-so-hot terms with Armstrong and Bruyneel. Couldn't you see Lance reaching out of retirement to stick it to Floyd one more time?

Maybe not, but the byzantine layers of palace intrigue in the peloton are what make the Tour really fun to watch.

Especially with the Alps looming. On to Alp d'Huez!

Whew! I'm gassed.

Watching the climb up L'Alpe d'Huez will do that to you. All those switchbacks. All the attacks. All the counter-attacks and comebacks. All that drama. And all that pain.

It lived up to the hype. There was the fight up in front, won by Frank Schleck (CSC) - big shout out for Luxembourg!. Then there was the yellow jersey battle behind. Carlos Sastre (CSC) and Leipheimer (Gerolsteiner) fell behind early, then steadily crawled back into it. Denis Menchov (Rabobank) faded back, and kept fading. Cadel Evans (Davitamon Lotto) cracked like an egg.

Steady all the way through were Andreas Kloden (T-Mobile) and Floyd Landis (Phonak). They probed each other with a few attacks, eventually deciding that neither was going give (and probably that a huge effort wasn't smart with two more Alpine stages to go). So they settled in and chugged to the top.

Oh yeah, the yellow jersey. Almost forgot. Oscar Pereiro (Caisse d'Epargne) was in the picture, but just barely. So once Landis and Kloden crossed the line together, the drama of clock-watching began. Pereiro put on a game sprint at the end, but wound up 10 seconds short.

So Floyd's back in yellow and we ask ourselves the question again - Who's going to win this race?

Here's a quick look at the top 10 after Stage 15

Overall
1. Floyd Landis (USA), Phonak
2. Oscar Pereiro Sio (Sp), Caisse d'Epargne-I.B., at 0:10
3. Cyril Dessel (F), Ag2r Prevoyance, at 2:02
4. Denis Menchov (Rus), Rabobank, at 2:12
5. Carlos Sastre (Sp), CSC, at 2:17
6. Andréas Klöden (G), T-Mobile, at 2:29
7. Cadel Evans (Aus), Davitamon-Lotto, at 2:56
8. Michael Rogers (Aus), T-Mobile, at 5:01
9. Levi Leipheimer (USA), Gerolsteiner, at 6:18
10. Haimar Zubeldia (Sp), Euskaltel-Euskadi, at 6:20

While Pereiro was game, don't expect him to be a factor in the next two mountain stages. Then he's toast when the time trial comes. So he's out.

So is Cyril Dessel. He showed us something on d'Huez, coming in 19th. But if coming in 19th in a stage is an achievement, then you're not a race factor. So he's out.

With another strong ride in the mountains, Levi Leipheimer has ridden himself back into the top 10, as well as solid, "What if?" territory. Levi's 6:18 back overall. He lost 5:05 of that to Landis in the Stage 7 time trial, where Levi was mysteriously terrible. Maybe he was ill. Maybe his bike had a problem. We may never know the exact answer. To his credit Levi didn't make any direct excuses. But if Levi could have ridden even an average time trial that day, he'd be in the top five and still have an outside shot of winning it all. Instead, he's left hoping to maybe, just maybe, sneak on the bottom step of the podium.

Denis Menchov? He made my prediction of a podium finish look very, very bad today. At one point he was so wiped out that he didn't have the strength to reach out and grab a water bottle that teammate Michael Rasmussen was trying to hand to him. Maybe he can rally tomorrow or Thursday, but today was a big test that he failed.

I'd bump Menchov off the podium completely if not for the ride of my other podium prediction, Cadel Evans. He did even worse, finishing 28 seconds behind Menchov and 1:39 behind Landis. Sorry mate, thanks for the memories.

My new guy on the podium, just one step from the top, is Andreas Kloden. He looked strong all day. Though he didn't have enough to drop Landis, he had more than enough to gain time on all the other top rivals. I see him leaping Sastre, Menchov, Dessel and Pereiro ...

but not Landis. The guy looked good in the prologue - except for the bike problem that caused him to start a few seconds late. He looked good in the time trial - except for the problem with his handlebars that probably cost him half a minute or so. He looked good in the Pyrenees. Now he's looked good in the Alps. A guy could always blow up on any day - that's what makes the mountain stages so exciting - but we have no evidence to suggest that Floyd is anything but the favorite at this point. My biggest concern for him is the shoddy work of his freakin' mechanics. What if one of them forgets to tighten up the quick release on his back wheel and it falls off on a descent tomorrow?

Oh, and Lance Armstrong was the top of d'Huez today. Wonder if he smiled when Landis donned the yellow jersey again ... or just gritted his teeth.

Speaking of drama in the Alps, here's the tidbit that I did not know about Lance's 2004 time trial up d'Huez (courtesy of Agence France Presse)

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Armstrong revisits L'Alpe d'Huez
Lance Armstrong was back in a familiar spot -- at the top of L'Alpe d'Huez.

The retired seven-time Tour de France champion pedaled to the Alpine ski resort Monday on the Tour rest day. Riders will attempt the grueling 116-mile 15th stage on Tuesday.

Armstrong plans to watch the stage on TV, visit the team bus Wednesday before the 16th stage and join manager Johan Bruyneel in the Discovery car on the course route.

Armstrong's presence could serve as motivation for his former Discovery teammates -- none are in the top 10 in the overall standings.

The stage Tuesday ends with a 21-bend climb up L'Alpe d'Huez, a famed ascent where Armstrong decimated the opposition during a tense time trial in 2004. Armstrong had police snipers riding behind in a support car after the Texan received death threats.

Armstrong will leave the team on Wednesday, spend a few days relaxing and rejoin the Tour for Sunday's finish on the Champs-Elysees, Discovery Channel team spokesman P.J. Rabice said.

Armstrong won his record seven Tour titles under Bruyneel's guidance, first with U.S. Postal before Discovery acquired sponsorship of the team. Armstrong is a part owner of the team.

----

Police snipers? Holy cow. I thought it was bad when the German fans spit on him.

As for Lance providing motivation for Team Disco ... not so much. My guy George was in the big breakaway, but started pedaling backwards on d'Huez and wound up 30th. He finished right with Popovych, who's 13th overall.

So there you have it folks. Stage 15 is a wrap and my new 1-2-3 is Landis, Kloden, Menchov. I know, gutsy picks. And I'll probably change them again tomorrow.

Okay. There are two fundamental lessons we can glean from today's stage.

1) I'm an idiot. But you knew that already.

2) Making predictions with major mountain stages remaining is really, really a crapshoot. You just never know when a major contender could blow up and lose massive time, changing the entire complexion of the race. When that happens, it can make the prognosticators look like idots (see lesson No. 1)

I give you this prelude because that's exactly what happened today to Floyd Landis. Midway through the final climb of the stage, Landis' tank hit empty and the rest of the major contenders - heartless carnivores that they are - left him in the dust. How bad was it for Landis? He finished 10:04 behind the stage winner, Michael - what, Denis Menchov is my teammate? - Rasmussen. It was so bad that Landis had to be tugged across the line by his teammate Axel - please dont' confuse me with my father - Merckx. So bad that Landis is no longer the top American in the Tour. That honor now goes to Levi Leipheimer, who's in ninth place, 7:46 behind the new yellow jersey wearer (we'll get to him later) and 22 seconds ahead of Landis, who's now in 11th.

With the wonder of 20/20 hindsight we can see that maybe Landis wasn't just being conservative when he let Oscar Pereiro and Yaroslav Popovych gain time in the pre-Alps stages. Maybe he wasn't just being cool when he didn't attack yesterday. Maybe, just maybe Floyd wasn't 100 percent. Certainly he didn't look it today. One thing we do know for sure - Floyd's team stinks. When Merckx is the only guy you have that's semi-reliable, you've got problems.

But, alas, enough about Floyd. Let's get back to the race contenders. Becuase now, there are lots of them. This is, without a doubt, the wildest, most unpredictable (can you tell?) Tour in recent memory. I mean, seriously, would have you have predicted that the yellow jersey wearer at this point would be ...

Oscar Periero?

Yep. The guy who lost almost 30 minutes after the Pyrenees is now the patron of the peloton. You can't make this stuff up.

Can Oscar hold on? He's got 1:50 on second place - Carlos Sastre (yeah, you saw that one coming, didn't you?) - and Andreas Kloden and Cadel Evans - superior time trialers to Pereiro - are less than thre minutes back. So, I'll go out on a limb and say ... maybe. Logic tells you that he's due to bonk after riding so hard to make up so much time in the last few days. But at this point in the Tour, logic only gets you in trouble.

One other who'dda thunk it? A Frenchman is in the top five - that's bizarre enough these days - and it's not Cristophe Moreau. Instead, Cyril Dessel, who was supposed to be one of those ceremonial early race yellow jersey wearers, just won't go away. He's in fourth place. FOURTH PLACE!

Clearly, you can tell that this stage has knocked me off my equilibrium. Nevertheless, I will attempt - AGAIN - to predict the final podium order. Why? See Lesson No. 1

No. 1 - Andreas Kloden - No, he still hasn't shown he can be The Man, but he's always in the picture on the mountains. He's avoided the dreaded BAD DAY. If he keeps the time gaps in this territory, I think he can win it all with a good time trial. Not exactly a ringing endorsement, but hey, what do you expect at this point?

No. 2 - Carlos Sastre - Maybe Sastre was the one who leaked Ivan Basso's name in that Spanish doping investigation. Certainly he's doing quite nicely as the new team leader for CSC. I think he can overtake Pereiro - seriously, how much can Oscar have left? - but I don't think he can hold off Kloden in the time trial.

No. 3 - Cadel Evans - Like Kloden, he hasn't impressed, but he's kept himself in the mix. I think he'll nip Pereiro for the last podium spot with a solid time trial.

So there you have it. What does that mean? Probably that Landis blows away the field tomorrow and reclaims the yellow jersey.

And to continue in the vein of Comic Book Guy ...

Best ... Tour ... Ever.

Now admittedly, I'm a relative neophyte to the Tour, having only caught on during the Greg Lemond era. And granted, that final time trial that Lemond won over Laurent Fignon was epic. But this? This?

This was so incredible it was almost unbloggable.

Yet, I will try.

When OLN picked up its coverage this morning, they told us that Floyd Landis had broken away from the field. It was a valiant gesture, but given that there were still over 120 kilometers remaining, that's all it seemed to be - a "I'm still a fighter guys!" gesture.

Then, as the kilometers began to tick away, you could feel things start to shift. Floyd looked good and the gap was starting to widen, and you could actually make a logical argument that his move wasn't just about pride.

1) Most of the theories floating out from yesterday's disastrous stage centered around Landis not taking on enough food and water. That'll cause you to bonk big-time, and lord knows Landis did. But that doesn't mean you're done physically for the rest of the Tour. A little rest, a little TLC from the team masseuse, some carbo-loading and voila! Landis was a new man.

2) Once Landis formed a gap on the peloton, he didn't have to worry about feed stations and getting water bottles from teammates. The Phonak team car was able to settle in just behind and replenish him whenever he wanted. Clearly he wasn't taking chances. He spent a good deal of time on the stage dousing himself with water and stuffing carbs in his face.

3) If Floyd had been a little higher in the overall standings, such an early attack might have been suicidal. But heck, he was only 11th, 8:08 out of the lead. Trying to counter that attack so early in the stage - on the first climb for crying out loud! - didn't make sense. So they let him go.

4) Once it became apparent that Landis was strong, the leaders in the peloton had a Gordian-knot level conundrum. The yellow jersey, Oscar Pereiro, and his team clearly didn't have enough juice to make a big effort to chase down Landis. The other teams, like T-Mobile, CSC and Rabobank then spent precious time playing as Velonews describe it "you do it" "No, you do it!" You couldn't really blame them. If Kloden goes, what if he blows up and gets passed by Menchov and Sastre? The same concens were there for Menchov, Sastre and Cadel Evans? It was just too early, just too risky.

Landis? He didn't have those worries. He had nothing to lose. Heck, with plans to replace his hip after this Tour, he might be riding in his last Tour ever. Why not go for it?

It's time to see if you can decipher these comments from N.C. State's two-sport star, Andrew Brackman.

Brackman's currently playing for the Orleans Cardinals in the prestigious Cape Cod summer wooden bat league. According to published reports, he's throwing the mid to high 90's and has topped out at 99 miles per hour.

Naturally, such a performance has fueled speculation that Brackman might scrap basketball this year and focus solely on baseball. I've been trying to reach him up on the Cape to talk about his recovery from his stress fracture as well as his future plans. He hasn't returned my call, probably because he's just not ready to say anything definitive about such an important decision.

It's a little harder to avoid the question though when a guy can ask him in person. Apparently that's what Russ Charpentier of the Cape Cod Times decided to do after Brackman made his first start for the Cardinals.

Here's the item from Charpentier's notebook.

While Brackman didn't come out and say anything concrete, it doesn't sound good for Wolfpack fans who want him to play hoops again.

Consider that Brackman blamed his hip injury on "too much running and jumping" during basketball. And his admission that he'd be better at either basketball or baseball if he focused on one sport solely rather than playing both.

Finally, Charpentier asks Brackman which sport he'll choose and Brackman gives this response:

"I don't see ever giving up baseball."

Now, that didn't mean that Brackman is going to choose baseball over basketball this year. He could have been speaking about the long term, which certainly wouldn't be a shock to anyone that knows about his massive baseball potential. But it does give you a glimpse into his mind right now. Baseball's ahead of basketball.

Is it far enough ahead that he'd consider passing on the major minutes he's sure to get this season playing for Sidney Lowe? And what about the leverage that playing hoops could give him if he enters the MLB draft next summer? Then again, what about what happened with his hip?

Sorry, I don't have those answers right now. Maybe Brackman does. Until he decides to share them with the rest of us though, we'll just have to keep reading between the lines.

Earlier today Floyd Landis became the third American to win the Tour de France.

For those of you scoring at home - and if you're scoring the Tour, that's just sad - that makes eight straight wins by an American in the Tour and 11 out of the last 21. For those of you who like to tweek the French (Jeff Carlton, you know who you are) that's 11 wins by American since the last win by a Frenchman in the home country race - Bernard Hinault in 1985. How is that possible? That's a discussion for another day.

For now, and for quite a while in the future, we'll wonder how it was possible for Floyd Landis to over an 8:08 deficit in the last four stages of the race. While most of the American public seemed to gloss over this Lance-less Tour, Landis was creating a story almost as riveting as Armstrong's. Man defies his Mennonite upbringing to become a professional cyclist, then defies a decaying hip to become one of the best in the world, then defies a seemingly impossible time gap to win the world's most prestigous bike race. How's that for made for Hollywood?

I suspect that the media will play catchup now that Floyd has won and he'll be on numerous magazine covers and appear on numerous talk shows and probably ink an endoresement deal or two. But if you weren't following along during the three weeks of the tour, while the drama was unfolding, you missed one of the truly great sports stories. Sorry about that.

Those of us who did follow along can't help but feel giddy that we got a chance to witness one of the most dramatic tours in history. It feels good to know that despite everything - the loss of Lance and the loss of top contenders due to yet another doping scandal - the Tour is still relevant and - for those of us who like bike racing - a heck of a lot of fun to watch.

Contenders for next year? Final comments on the final standings? We'll save that for tomorrow. For now, let's just tip a glass of bubbly and say, "Vive Le Tour!"

Perhaps the most interesting item from yesterday's stage - unless you just happen to be a big Thor Hushovd fan - was Lance Armstrong's very public wooing of Floyd Landis. Armstrong's a co-owner of the Discovery team and probably not too thrilled with its subpar performance in this year's tour. Hincapie revealed that he's probably no more than an uber domestique, Savoldelli saves his best for the Giro and Popovych didn't take that next step from young talent to Tour contender. So why not bring on the top American rider to lead the top American team?

First, all of this talk is purely hypothetical until we see how Landis responds to his hip replacement surgery. Assuming he does come back though, I don't think Phonak/I Shares will let him go without a fight. Landis dedicated his Tour win to the team owner and Phonak stood by him after he revealed to them, "oh by the way, my hip is decaying." So there are loyalty issues. Add in the fact that Floyd and Lance have never been bosom buddies, and you could see why Landis might pass on the invite.

On the other hand, it's a chance to race for an American team - and get all the attention and endorsements that go with that. And Discovery, despite its difficulties, is still a much stronger team than Phonak, which played the Jordanaires to Landis's Elvis in this year's Tour. So maybe that will win out in the end. We'll see.

Before we part for a while, dear cycling fans (I use the plural form loosely), let's look at who might be a favorite for next year's Tour.

1) Floyd Landis. Yeah, yeah, yeah, so he's going to have an artificial hip by then. Did you see what he did in Stage 17?

2) Ivan Basso. Depends heavily on what happens when Operation Puerto comes to a close. (Ha! I love punning in Spanish). But if Basso escapes any punishment, there's no reason to assume he won't be the man to beat in 2007, as he would have been this year.

3) Alejandro Valverde. My guy at the beginning of this race until he wrecked very, very early on. I liked what I saw of him in the 2005 Tour. Will he Valverde have his Caisse d’Epargne-Illes Balears teammates Oscar Pereiro around? And will Oscar be willing to go back to being a lieutenant rather than a team leader?

4) Andreas Kloden. I just can't get too excited about him. Yes, he rode a great time trial to make the podium - his second podium spot in three years. But I've never - ever - seen him do anything special in the mountains. And unless you're far and away the best time trialer - i.e. Indurain back in the day - you have to do more than just hang around in the Alps and the Pyrenees.

That's it. I'm keeping the list short and sweet. I would add the young Italian Damiano Cunego, but I've heard he may just focus on the Giro next year. The guy's only 24. He's got time.

Leipheimer's time has come ... and gone. I think Denis Menchov and Cadel Evans revealed themselve to be top 10 Tour guys, but not future winners. Carlos Sastre probably fades back to becoming Basso's right hand man. Ullrich? He's unemployed.

Every time I think I've finished up with the Tour - they pull me back in. This time it's an unintentionally hilarious article from procycling about what went on in the peloton behind Landis during his historic Stage 17 breakaway.

A few days ago, John Newsom and I were wondering why in Europe, the continent that gave us socialism, the only real team sport is soccer, while in U.S. - land of the individual - team sports rule. Maybe this piece explains the European side of things. It certainly helps clear up why it took so long to get the Bosnian crisis under control.

That's what Roy Williams and his UNC coaching staff are hoping for. Kevin Love, Scout.com's No. 2-rated 2007 high school basketball recruit, will announce his choice -- either UNC or UCLA -- at a press conference in Las Vegas at 4:30 EST today.

The 6-9, 250-pound power forward from Lake Oswego, Ore., appears to be leaning to Ben Howland's Bruins, but he hinted to ESPN's Andy Katz that a surprise might be in store.

Find out at news-record.com what the decision is. We'll post a brief story soon after it's official, with more on Love's choice to follow in Wednesday's News & Record.

The long, winding - and often very bumpy - road of former N.C. State wide receiver Richard Washington has brought him back to his old stomping grounds, according to this article in the Fort Myers News-Press.

Here's the five-second bio on Washington. Originally comitted to Ohio State before detouring to N.C. State, where he was ineligible his freshman season. After two seasons at State, he was booted off the team for marijuana use. Tried to transfer to Ole Miss but had difficulty transferring credits. Wound up at D-II Valdosta State, but apparently doesn't have enough credits to be academically eligible for football this year. Threw his hat into the NFL supplemental draft, but didn't get picked. Now back home, training at his high school gym, hoping for a shot as a free-agent at an NFL camp.

Whew! That was more like five minutes, actually.

All that since 2001. Much of it since 2004. I can't imagine Washington's chances of latching on with an NFL team are good. Not many are in the market for an undersized wideout who hasn't played in over a year and has a history of drug use. But, the guy has speed and was a play-maker when he was at the top of the game. And even though he's created much of the trouble he's had, there's something in his infectious personality that makes you root for him to somehow stick with an NFL team. Or maybe get a shot in NFL Europe.

Not only has former N.C. A&T star running back Maurice Hicks found a decent paycheck in the NFL with the San Francisco 49ers, he's also broken into the online publishing business. Then again, that might be a prerequisite for the marketing of today's pro athlete.

Check out the link to Mo Magazine here at his aptly named Web site, movethestickshicks.com. A shout-out to Kia Mason for bringing this production to our attention.

... re: Floyd Landis' positive drug test.

Let's leave the conclusion jumping to the French media - he's guilty! - and national pundits - is there nothing we can believe in any more?

Here's what we do know - or think we know about Landis.

1) He tested positive for an abnormally high testosterone to epitestosterone ratio after Stage 17, his big win in the Tour. Normal humans have a 1:1 ratio. In order to test positive, your ratio must exceed 4:1.

2) Yesterday, ESPN's cycling analyst John Eustice was saying that it wasn't a case of high testosterone levels that caused the positive test. Rather it was low levels of epitestosterone. However, Landis seemed to contradict that today when he announced that he has naturally high levels of testosterone and this could be an explanation for the positive test.

3) If that's the case, it seems a little strange that Landis didn't test positive on samples taken earlier in the race.

4) Even stranger is this. Some folks in the know will tell you that it takes several weeks of taking testosterone before enhanced results start showing up. This would seem to shoot down the theory that Landis bumped up his testosterone the night before his big stage 17 win. Since Landis DID NOT test positive on samples taken earlier in the race, the theory of deliberate, long-term testosterone boosting doesnt appear to hold water either. Unless ...

5) You buy into a theory espoused by a German doctor that Austin Murphy mentions in his on-line piece for SI.

6) Of course, in the same piece, Landis tells Murphy that he's been taking small does of thyroid hormone on a daily basis for a thyroid condition. Maybe that messed with his levels?

7) Later in the Murphy piece, Landis said he's enlisting the help of a Spanish doctor who has challenged dozens such positive tests and has knocked down every single one. Eustice, in a radio interview with ESPN, said testosterone tests are notoriously flaky and are routinely shot down when challenged. If that's the case, why even use the test?

As you can see, in an attempt to lay out what we know, I've only stumbled across more questions. Still, I think it's safe to say that something doesn't add up here. And that may be Landis's best defense here. I have a pretty strong feeling that the B test will also show up positive. But it wouldn't shock me if Landis gets any punishment thrown out and holds on to his Tour win.

Then it will be left up to us to wonder whether he was found Not Guilty, or whether he truly was Innocent.