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Okay. There are two fundamental lessons we can glean from today's stage.

1) I'm an idiot. But you knew that already.

2) Making predictions with major mountain stages remaining is really, really a crapshoot. You just never know when a major contender could blow up and lose massive time, changing the entire complexion of the race. When that happens, it can make the prognosticators look like idots (see lesson No. 1)

I give you this prelude because that's exactly what happened today to Floyd Landis. Midway through the final climb of the stage, Landis' tank hit empty and the rest of the major contenders - heartless carnivores that they are - left him in the dust. How bad was it for Landis? He finished 10:04 behind the stage winner, Michael - what, Denis Menchov is my teammate? - Rasmussen. It was so bad that Landis had to be tugged across the line by his teammate Axel - please dont' confuse me with my father - Merckx. So bad that Landis is no longer the top American in the Tour. That honor now goes to Levi Leipheimer, who's in ninth place, 7:46 behind the new yellow jersey wearer (we'll get to him later) and 22 seconds ahead of Landis, who's now in 11th.

With the wonder of 20/20 hindsight we can see that maybe Landis wasn't just being conservative when he let Oscar Pereiro and Yaroslav Popovych gain time in the pre-Alps stages. Maybe he wasn't just being cool when he didn't attack yesterday. Maybe, just maybe Floyd wasn't 100 percent. Certainly he didn't look it today. One thing we do know for sure - Floyd's team stinks. When Merckx is the only guy you have that's semi-reliable, you've got problems.

But, alas, enough about Floyd. Let's get back to the race contenders. Becuase now, there are lots of them. This is, without a doubt, the wildest, most unpredictable (can you tell?) Tour in recent memory. I mean, seriously, would have you have predicted that the yellow jersey wearer at this point would be ...

Oscar Periero?

Yep. The guy who lost almost 30 minutes after the Pyrenees is now the patron of the peloton. You can't make this stuff up.

Can Oscar hold on? He's got 1:50 on second place - Carlos Sastre (yeah, you saw that one coming, didn't you?) - and Andreas Kloden and Cadel Evans - superior time trialers to Pereiro - are less than thre minutes back. So, I'll go out on a limb and say ... maybe. Logic tells you that he's due to bonk after riding so hard to make up so much time in the last few days. But at this point in the Tour, logic only gets you in trouble.

One other who'dda thunk it? A Frenchman is in the top five - that's bizarre enough these days - and it's not Cristophe Moreau. Instead, Cyril Dessel, who was supposed to be one of those ceremonial early race yellow jersey wearers, just won't go away. He's in fourth place. FOURTH PLACE!

Clearly, you can tell that this stage has knocked me off my equilibrium. Nevertheless, I will attempt - AGAIN - to predict the final podium order. Why? See Lesson No. 1

No. 1 - Andreas Kloden - No, he still hasn't shown he can be The Man, but he's always in the picture on the mountains. He's avoided the dreaded BAD DAY. If he keeps the time gaps in this territory, I think he can win it all with a good time trial. Not exactly a ringing endorsement, but hey, what do you expect at this point?

No. 2 - Carlos Sastre - Maybe Sastre was the one who leaked Ivan Basso's name in that Spanish doping investigation. Certainly he's doing quite nicely as the new team leader for CSC. I think he can overtake Pereiro - seriously, how much can Oscar have left? - but I don't think he can hold off Kloden in the time trial.

No. 3 - Cadel Evans - Like Kloden, he hasn't impressed, but he's kept himself in the mix. I think he'll nip Pereiro for the last podium spot with a solid time trial.

So there you have it. What does that mean? Probably that Landis blows away the field tomorrow and reclaims the yellow jersey.