The N.C. State fatigue theory, by the numbers
So much has been written about the Wolfpack's lack of depth this season, but usually the players and Sidney Lowe have been hesitant to make a definite connection between having to play only six or seven guys and wearing down because of fatigue.
It's an understandable response, really. Acknowledge that fatigue is a problem and you become much more susceptible to it mentally the next game and the next, and so on. Better to just try to trick yourself into thinking that you're not wearing down from playing 38 minutes a night.
So, with a little bit of time on my hands this afternoon, I decided to check some numbers.
Taking only the Wolfpack's 13 ACC games - probably the truest barometer of competition - I totaled up State's first-half scoring and first-half points allowed and did the same for the second-half.
Here are the raw numbers.
In 13 league games, State has scored an average of 33.7 points in the first half and given up 34.5. The Wolfpack has scored an average of 35.2 in the second half and given up 40.
So there's at least some support for the fatigue theory. State goes from a - 0.8 scoring differential in the first half of ACC games, to -4.8 in the second half.
Still there is a little quirk in the numbers in that State actually scores more points in the second half, when it should be more tired. Maybe because the Wolfpack is scoring points while trying to play catch-up?
Then I broke the numbers down a bit more, taking a look at what's happened to State since it posted its upset win over UNC. To me, that next game - the loss at Georgia Tech - was the first time when I really started to see second-half weariness get to the Wolfpack.
The numbers here are decidely more striking.
In the five games since, State has actually outscored its opponents in the first half, by an average of 39 points to 36.2, a +2.8 point differential.
In the second half, things go very wrong for the Wolfpack. In the last five games, State's second-half scoring average has sunk to 31 points, while it's giving up 39.4. That's a whopping -8.4 point differential, in just 20 minutes.
And that includes the second half against Virginia Tech, when State outscored the Hokies, 36-23.
Not surprisingly, the Wolfpack is 1-4 in that stretch.
No real ground-breaking revelations, but it does pretty much confirm what we've suspected. The Wolfpack tends to run out of gas in the second half, and the problem has become much more pronounced in the second half of the ACC season.
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