Dave O'Brien = Debbie Downer
Remember that SNL skit? The one that Jimmy Fallon almost ruined by being completely incapable of keeping a straight face? (Okay, I realize that really doesn't narrow it down).
But I digress. The point is that the heat and humidity and general malaise of the South Florida sports scene has clearly gotten to our faithful Atlanta Braves scribe. Prior to the Brave's 11-6 win over the Marlins last night - which pushed Atlanta to 13-7 by the way, DOB published this blog entry with a raft of stats which would seem to contradict the notion that Atlanta is actually pretty good. (Again, you may need to register with the site to view this. Don't worry cheapskates, it's free.)
I'm not sure what to make of the whole thing. Certainly the 3.92 ERA of the bullpen threw me for a loop. That unit's probably the biggest reason for the Braves' strong start. Not that surprised about the overall staff ERA - Mark Redman will do that to you, folks. Certainly not surprised that the left fielders have been collectively awful. You just sort of get used to that after a while.
So does this mean that stats lie? Or does it mean the Braves have been doing it with mirrors and are due for a fall?
While normally a fairly pessimistic Atlanta fan - you get that way after the 8th or 9th playoff flameout, I'm afraid - I'm leaning toward statistical anomalies right now. It seems like early on the Braves were pitching just well enough to survive poor hitting and now they're hitting just well enough to survive poor pitching. Somehow that translates to poor overall stats but a very nice overall record. I'm hopeful that eventually the pitching and the hitting might actually sync up soon, leading to improvements in the stat categories.
Not that I really care, as long as the win percentage stays in the .600 range?
Jeff Carlton, what do you think? I see your boy Mike Grossman is giddy over the Phils' four straight wins.
Comments (1)
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Make that 5 straight, super trooper. I'm not nearly as giddy, though signs that Chase Utley and Ryan Howard might be coming to life (averages above .200) is reason for hope.
I don't have time to read Braves blogs, of all things, but I'd say any mention of overall offensive stats -- especially batting average -- needs to be considered more closely. When are the hits coming? What's that average with runners in scoring position? RISP and two outs? In extra innings? The Phils might actually have outhit the Braves in the season-opening series, but they were basically 0-for in the above situations and thus got swept. Oh, and because their bullpen was awful to start the season. Thanks to an 11-4 blowout win over Houston on Monday, Philly finally is over .200 with RISP. That stat spelled doom last year for a team that finished 2 games out of the wild card.
I'd say this about Dave O'Brien's reported analysis: The Braves appear, statistically speaking, to be a team that needs the hitting and pitching to max out for them to have .600-type success. As in, they're not that great, but capable.
Posted on April 26, 2007 11:40 AM