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Braves Mid-Season Report

It could have been worse, but it could have been better. Done.

What? You want details? Allrighty then.

Everyone always talks about the second half of the season as being after the All-Star game, but technically it began on Sunday, with the Braves blowing a 6-5 game to the Marlins. Coming into Sunday, Atlanta had reached the halfway point, 81 games, with a 43-38 record, thanks to a five game winning streak. Extrapolated for the whole season, that would leave the Braves at 86-76. Not bad, better than last year, but not good enough to make the playoffs, I'm afraid. Not with the Dodgers, Padres and D-Backs all playing well in the West.

At least there will be no more interleague play in the second half, though. Braves fans were worried in the spring when they got a look at the Braves' AL schedule, and they had every reason to be concerned. Playing powerful teams like Boston (six times), Cleveland, Detroit and Minnesota, Atlanta wound up with a miserable 4-11 record. That means Atlanta was a pretty respectable 39-27 (.591) against the rest of the league. If the Braves played the second half at that clip against NL opponents, they'd end up with approximately a 91-71 record. That would put them in wildcard territory. (There's a separate rant about the unfairness of differing interleague schedules that will have to wait for another day, perhaps if the Braves miss out on the playoffs by a game or two).

What the Braves did well:

The bullpen has cooled off after a blistering start, but it's still much stronger than it was last season, when it effectively killed the Braves season. Bob Wickman's struggling right now, but assuming it's not an injury (cross fingers now) he's savvy enough to turn it around. Rafael Soriano gives Atlanta something I honestly can't remember them having, like, ever - a strong setup man. Losing power lefty Mike Gonzalez for the season though, has left a hole in the pen that will likely need to be adressed via a trade.

I'll admit it now. I have a man crush on Edgar Renteria. The guy isn't flashy - and, bizarrely, not an all star - but he's pretty frickin' good (.324 average, 10 hrs, 41 rbis, 7 sbs). I'm also warming up to Jeff Francouer (52 RBIs) whose hyper-aggressive approach to hitting drove me nuts last season. Chipper Jones has been great ... wait for it ... when he's been healthy. Kelly Johnson's been a revalation at 2B and the platoon of Willie Harris and Matt Diaz has bee positively Roenicke-Lowensteinish in left field. Yunel Escobar's recent arrival has given the Braves needed depth in the infield.

The top of the rotation starters, John Smoltz and Tim Hudson, have pitched like, well, top of the rotation starters. They've combined for 17 wins and ERAs hovering right around the 3.00 mark. If the Braves can make it into the playoffs, that 1-2 punch will make them dangerous against anyone.

Sooooooo .... why aren't the Braves a lock for the post-season?

What the Braves aren't doing well:

Staying healthy. This isn't anyone's fault (I don't think) but injuries have crippled the Braves' cause. Atlanta was hoping Mike Hampton would be - finally - back to full health and ready to resume the No. 3 spot in the rotation. Instead, he's out for the year (again) and the rotation now takes a steep dive after Smoltz and Hudson. It's not Spahn and Sain and pray for rain, but Chuck James to me is really a No. 4 guy masquerading as a No. 3. A 7-7 record is fine at No. 4. You need better at No. 3. Kyle Davies, meanwhile, is still a wildly inconsistent guy with talent but without the results (3-7) to show for it. Not exactly what you want at No. 4. The No. 5 guy was supposed to be Lance Cormier after he had a lights out spring, but he got injured and hasn't been the same since coming back. Ancient (29) rookie Buddy Carlyle has capably filled the No. 5 spot, but can he keep it up?

We mentioned Gonzalez's injury. That's kept a solid bullpen from becoming a dominating pen. Plus, it's left the Braves in search of a lefty arm in the pen.

Chipper's knack for getting injured continued, as he played in just 58 of the Braves first 82 games. Still he managed to hit 13 hrs and bat .327 when he was in the lineup. When he was out, the Braves simply weren't the same team offensively. If - and boy is it a huge if - he can stay healthy - in the second half, Atlanta's got a pretty good shot.

In the past, when the offense needed to be carried by someone other than Chipper, Andruw Jones was there to shoulder the load. This year? He's been more like dead weight pulling everyone else down. Consider this - Kelly Johnson's been good at leadoff (so has Willie Harris). Edgar and Chipper are great at No. 2 and No. 3. McCann has been solid at No. 5, Francouer productive at No. 6 and the platoon of Diaz/Harris spectacular at No. 7. Scott Thorman's iffy at No. 8, but so are most No. 8 hitters.

So why have the Braves not been dominant offensively? When your cleanup hitter is batting a miserable .199, that might have something to do with it. It also doesn't help that Bobby Cox, who's known for his undying loyalty to his veterans, stubbornly kept Andruw there forever, before finally, finally, moving him down in the lineup.

It's nice to fantasize about how good Atlanta's O could be if Andruw catches fire in the second half, but I'm not holding my breath. After 82 games of doing the same darned thing - swinging for the fences, pulling off the ball, chasing pitches low and away - I'm not convinced he'll make the adjustment. The bright side? I won't miss him much when he leaves as a free agent after this season.

What's needed

A revival by Andruw would boost the offense. Again, don't hold your breath.
A healthy Chipper would also help. Other than that, I think the O will be okay.

Somebody out of the group of James, Carlyle, Davies and Cormier needs to be more than just average in the second half of the season. You can't put together a long winning streak, which will be needed to get in the playoff picture, with just two starting pitchers.

Can Wilfredo Ledezma be the left-handed option out of the Braves pen? Not with a 4.95 ERA he can't. Still think Atlanta might need to make a trade here.

So there you have it - just stay healthy, get Andruw revved up, find another starter and a lefty reliever and it's back to the postseason for the Braves. Okay, that won't be the easy, but hey, at least we're still talking about the playoffs. After last year, that's a definite improvement.

Comments (1)

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jeff carlton said:

Wow, Jim, you sound incredibly optimistic about the Braves' playoff chances given their 86-76 pace. I'd think you'd consider the chances of catching the Mets in the East better than finishing ahead of the Padres/Dodgers, who, let's face it, are better teams than the Bravos, with or without Mike Hampton and a healthy Chippuh. Maybe you're factoring in the Grady Little Effect, assuming he'll find away to make LA less than the sum of its parts.

I'll say this for you: Andruw Jones can't possibly hit .199 for a full season ... can he? And Schuerholz surely will be given permission to trade for a Ken Griffey before the deadline, so the Braves quickly could transform themselves into playoff contenders.

Speaking of .199 hitters, don't think you'll have to worry about Pat Burrell and the Phillies being a problem. As perennially overrated as the Braves' farm system is, at least your boys manage to produce enough legit prospects to use as trade bait.

Did you see who started for the Phils against the Mets last weekend? JD "Real Deal" Durbin (somehow, that's really his nickname), J.A. Happ(less), Cole Hamels (in one of his worst outings) and Kyle Kendrick. Winning 1 of 4 was a miracle. Want to talk injuries: Freddy Garcia, Jon Lieber, Brett Myers, Tom Gordon (3 of 4 of whom I'd say are done). When you have Jose Mesa, aka Joe Table, pitching in key spots in the late innings, you know your bullpen's hopeless. So give Cholly credit for having this team within 2 games of your Braves.

And with no top-line prospects at Double-A or higher left to trade, forget about dealing for Buehrle or anyone useful. So the Phils will finish about 10 back of the playoff-less Braves and 18 back of the Mets.

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