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For what it's worth, this is the first of (hopefully) several entries updating my guesses at who's in, who's out and who's standing perilously on the barbed-wire fence for the NCAA tournament.

I've got 52 teams solidly in the field and 28 candidates for the remaining 13 spots. If that sounds like strenuous competition, it isn't. In some years, I've considered 40 teams for the final 13 positions.

Here's my tentative list, which assumes no upsets in leagues in which the regular-season champion is a lock for an at-large bid if necessary. Remember that this is PRELIMINARY.

The First 52 (arranged by alphabetical order of conference affiliation, in most cases)

1. UNC
2. Duke
3. Clemson
4. Miami

5. America East champion TBD

6. Xavier
7. Atlantic Sun champ TBD

8. Kansas
9. Texas
10. Kansas State
11. Oklahoma

12. Georgetown
13. Louisville
14. Notre Dame
15. UConn
16. Marquette
17. Pittsburgh

18. Big Sky champion TBD
19. Winthrop or UNC Asheville (Big South champ)

20. Wisconsin
21. Indiana
22. Purdue
23. Michigan State

24. Big West champ TBD

25. VCU (as CAA champ; might make it at-large if necessary)

26. Memphis (as C-USA champ; will be in at-large if necessary)

27. Butler (as Horizon champ; will make it at-large if necessary)

28. Cornell (Ivy League championship secured)

29. MAAC champ TBD

30. Kent State (as MAC champ but probably in at-large if necessary)

31. MEAC champ TBD

32. Drake (in as Missouri Valley champ but in if necessary at-large)

33. BYU (as Mountain West champ but in at-large if necessary)

34. NEC champ TBD
35. OVC champ TBD

36. UCLA
37. Stanford
38. Washington State
39. USC

40. Tennessee
41. Vanderbilt
42. Mississippi State
43. Arkansas

44. Davidson (predicted SoCon champ but under consideration at-large if necessary)

45. Southland champ TBD
46. Summit champ TBD

47. South Alabama (predicted Sun Belt champ; at-large candidate if necessary)

48. SWAC champ TBD

49. WAC champ TBD

50. St. Mary's
51. Gonzaga

52. Patriot League champ TBD

The Final 13
53. Texas A&M: No really bad losses and wins over Texas, Oklahoma, Baylor and Ohio State
54. West Virginia: Win over Pitt helps put Mountaineers over the top
55. Arizona: Hard to deny a team with the nation's toughest schedule and a break-even record in a round-robin league like the Pac 10.
56. Arizona State: Terrible non-conference sked, but Herb Sendek's Sun Devils swept Arizona and are 5-6 against the Top 50. That's one of the Top-50 best records in the candidate pool.
57. Kentucky: I hate to do this because the Wildcats lost to Gardner-Webb. By 16. At home. But their schedle is ranked 12th toughest; they're 10-2 lately; and they've beaten Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Arkansas and Mississippi.
58. Baylor: Big 12 is tough and Bears are credible.
59. St. Joseph's: A solid 3-3 Top-50 record now includes a win over Xavier.
60. Villanova: 4-6 vs. Top 50; beat George Mason outside the Big East.
61. UMass: Won at Syracuse.
62. Mississippi: Must win regular-season finale.
63. Illinois State: Swept the Salukis of Southern Illinois; decent schedule.
64. UNLV: Yes, we are getting to the bottom.
65. Ohio State: This presumes a win over Michigan State in the regular-season finale.