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... of course by the time I finish this blog, a press conference may have been called or a press release may have been sent out and the fates of UNC's big three - Tyler Hansbrough, Wayne Ellington and Ty Lawson - may already be known.

Of it could drag out. Or, UNC could let the deadline go and not say a thing, which would be kind of cool in a snarky sort of way. Not to us in the media, though. Or for fanatical Tar Heels who have been surfing message boards 24/7 this week.

While we wait, here's yet another analysis of the situation in CHapel Hill.

First, I realize that Roy Williams's hoops knowledge dwarfs mine in the way that Kenny George would dwarf Mugsy Bogues. But I don't quite get his stated disdain for the "testing the waters" plan, in which a player declares for the draft, doesn't sign with an agent and then goes to tryouts to check out his stock. Roy's theory is that he can gather enough information before the deadline, making the "testing the waters" phase irrelevant.

Maybe, but look at it from the NFL Draft perspective. The way Roy's system works, teams would draft off of what they've seen during the season (which is the way they probably ought to draft, but bear with me.) No combines, no all-star games, no individual workouts. Clearly, that's not the way scouts in the NFL work and I would tend to doubt the NBA scouts would either. If you're going to pick someone - and an NBA pick matters more than any other draft, simply because of the low roster size - you want as much information as possible. For example, you've heard that Tyler Hansbrough lacks athleticism. But wouldn't you rather bring him in to your practice gym, have him go up against an NBA player, see for yourself what his vertical leap is, or how fast he runs the floor?

I use the case of Tyler Hansbrough because, like a lot of folks on Tobacco Road, I can't quite figure out why his draft stock didn't budge an inch after this season, even after he showed so much more versatility in his game. Before, I'd worried about his ability to be a consistent low-post scorer in the NBA. Now, I think he would be very valuable with his ability to hit jumpers off the pick-and-pop, his board-crashing ability and his all-around energy. Wouldn't that be worth a 16-20 pick? And if you're Hansbrough, and you think that NBA scouts are still missing the boat on you, wouldn't you want another chance or two to change their minds?

What I'm saying is that Williams' approach is purely reactive - call around and see what NBA teams think of his players - while testing the waters allows a player to be proactive, to go out and give the NBA teams a little more evidence to help them make a decision on you. As they always say in the draft, it only takes one team. Testing the waters increases the players' chances of finding that one team.

Now, having said all that, let's assume that all of them take Williams' initial advice - who knows, he may have change his opinion on testing the waters by now - and don't go the "declare but don't hire an agent route." What then?

This is all purely hypothetical. I'm not basing any of this on what I'm hearing any of the three will do (it's a rumor tsunami out there right now).

Ty Lawson, to me is the most critical element, because I could see Tyler Hansbrough's fate being tied to his. Plus, Lawson seems the most likely to go highest of the three in the draft. Though UNC fans certainly weren't pleased with the way Lawson played against Kansas, that game greatly increased the chances Lawson will be back next season. Before then, there was a lot of talk that he would be a late lottery pick - usually good enough news for a player to declare. Since then, there have been a lot of questions - what about his size? does he have a consistent enough jumper? and can he beat enough people off the dribble to compensate for shortcomings in the first two departments? The success of Chris Paul, who's pushing six feet only on a good day, greatly helps Lawson's case, but I don't think I'm offending any Tar Heels if I state that Lawson is no Chris Paul. The other issue is the number of other point guards already in the draft who could go ahead of Lawson. That could push him toward the end of the first round. Unless some team has given him a first-round guarantee, then it's too risky for Lawson to declare.

If that happens, then I could definitely see Hansbrough coming back. He has nothing left to accomplish on the college level except winning a national title. With Lawson back, Hansbrough could do that, and then picked No. 25 in the draft, which seems to be his destiny regardless of what he does on the court. Without Lawson, Hansbrough may think, "Do I really want to come back for another season of getting pulverized in the low post and having to deal with an even greater media spotlight when my chances of winning it all are even less and when it's probably not going to help my draft stock anyway? So my thinking here is - if Lawson goes, Hansbrough goes. If Lawson stays, Hansbrough stays.

Ellington? Look, all logical signs point to him coming back. But the fact that he still hasn't made that decision yet probably tells you that he'd like to go if he could. Could he? He's a bit thin to be a prototypical NBA two guard and he still hasn't shown a lot of ability to attack the rim. Of course, that may be due in part to the fact that UNC always keeps two post players in the lane, making dribble penetration from the wings tricky. Maybe Ellington feels he could show that skill off by testing the waters (see earlier paragraph). All the projections have him at no better than a second-round pick. That's the land of no guaranteed money. But maybe there's a team out there picking late in the first round that's intrigued by Ellington. If there is, I could see him going. Heck, Dallas once picked Leon Smith at the end of the first round. Stranger things have happened. The odds are against that, though, so the odds would be against Ellington declaring.

Unless ....

What if Hansbrough and Lawson decided to declare? Maybe then Ellington decides he doesn't want to spend a season in Chapel Hill without the point guard who gets him open shots and the big man who forces defenses to sag off the perimeter. That would be sort of the Sean May argument - i.e. the guys around me have gone so I might as well go as well.

So there you have it. Let me finish by adding one minor disclaimer: all of this could be totally wrong.

Heck, that's probably the easiest scenario to pick right now.