Your 2005 winner
If Dustin Long is to be believed, it'll be Greg Biffle. Before Matt points it out in comments, this is the same guy who said Kurt Busch wasn't going to make the chase.
Ed Hardin tells me he thinks Busch is the best driver with the best team and the best stuff. But he's not so sure Busch and Jack Roush won't kill each other before the season's over.
Diecast Dude is sticking with Kenseth. Jon at The Finish Line is going with Tony Stewart. Me, I'll pull for Stewart, give Mark Martin a nod as the sentimental favorite and think that Carl Edwards will win this thing. (Why the heck not? And no one else is picking him, so I guess I'll have to.)
Jaynelle at Track Talk, meanwhile, is still devastated that Jeff Gordon missed the chase. The Scotsman talks to Bob Osborne, Carl Edwards's crew chief. (Is there anyone in NASCAR he can't get to talk to him?) And the commenters over at Bob Henry's place are too ticked at David Poole's defense of the chase to pick a winner.
Whew. I'm beat. Go click on the links above, and don't forget to check Dustin's detailed chase rundown after the jump.
Here's Dustin's take on the 10 drivers in the chase, as listed by their current points position.
1. TONY STEWART
Points: 5,050
Stats: 5 wins, 18 top 10s, 1 DNF
Best track: Dover. He has never finished worse than 15th in 13 starts and has two wins.
Worst track: Martinsville. Has not finished better than 14th in last three races.
Did you know? He's won at least once at seven of the remaining 10 tracks.
Why he'll win: Has 12 consecutive top-10 finishes. No one has been better.
Why he won't: Questionable if he can stay that consistent.
Prediction: 2nd
2. GREG BIFFLE
Points: 5,045
Stats: 5 wins, 15 top 10s, 1 DNF
Best track: Atlanta. Has three consecutive top-10 runs.
Worst track: Martinsville. Has not finished better than 17th in five starts.
Did you know? He has more bonus points (105) for leading laps this year than any other driver.
Why he'll win: With four straight top-10 finishes, he's regaining the form he showed earlier in the season.
Prediction: 1st
3. RUSTY WALLACE
Points: 5,040
Stats: No wins or DNFs, 14 top 10s
Best track: Texas. Has seven consecutive top-14 finishes.
Worst track: Talladega. He's never won a restrictor-plate race.
Did you know? Winless in his last 54 starts, longest drought among title contenders.
Why he'll win: He's consistently put together top-15 finishes the last four months, and consistency is key in the chase.
Why he won't: Champion will have at least one win in last 10 races and Wallace hasn't been strong enough to win.
Prediction: 6th
4. JIMMIE JOHNSON
Points: 5,035
Stats: 2 wins, 15 top 10s, 4 DNFs
Best track: Charlotte. He's won four of the last five points races, including the last three.
Worst track: Talladega. Has finished 20th or worse in four of the last six races.
Did you know? Has scored more points on ovals one mile or longer than any other driver this year.
Why he'll win: Has been one of the sport's elite teams the last few years and nearly won last year's title.
Why he won't: Team has struggled lately and lost momentum, similar to last year. He couldn't recover then and might not now.
Prediction: 4th
5. KURT BUSCH
Points: 5,030
Stats: 3 wins, 14 top 10s, 3 DNFs
Best track: New Hampshire. Placed first or second in last three races.
Worst track: Charlotte. One top-10 finish in 10 starts; he finished last there in May.
Did you know? Seeking to be the first repeat champion since Jeff Gordon in 1997-98.
Why he'll win: After a win at Richmond, he's showing the form that won him the title last year.
Why he won't: The luck he had in last year's title chase won't be with him this time.
Prediction: 3rd
6. MARK MARTIN
Points: 5,025
Stats: No wins, 12 top 10s, 1 DNF
Best track: Dover. Collected three consecutive top-three finishes.
Worst track: New Hampshire. Has not finished better than 13th in last seven races.
Did you know? Has been running at the finish in 59 of the last 62 races.
Why he'll win: He's part of Roush armada.
Why he won't: He hasn't challenged for many wins, which shows he's slightly behind some of the top teams.
Prediction: 7th
7. JEREMY MAYFIELD
Points: 5,020
Stats: 1 win, 7 top 10s, 1 DNF
Best track: Dover and Kansas. Scored three top-10s in last four starts at each track.
Worst track: New Hampshire. Has never finished better than eighth in 19 career starts.
Did you know? Only one of his five career wins has come on a track shorter than two miles.
Why he'll win: Has an average finish of 11.6 at the eight tracks in the chase that the series has raced at this year. Only Jimmie Johnson (8.3) is better.
Why he won't: Seven top-10s this season is fewest among contenders, which shows his team lacks strength to compete for the crown.
Prediction: 9th
8. CARL EDWARDS
Points: 5,015
Stats: 2 wins, 10 top 10s, 1 DNF
Best track: Atlanta. Has finished first and third in two starts.
Worst track: Talladega. Has best finish of 32nd in two starts.
Did you know? He's the youngest driver in the chase at age 26.
Why he'll win: He's young, he's fast and he's with Roush Racing.
Why he won't: Too many drivers owe him paybacks for incidents earlier this year. Someone is bound to collect.
Prediction: 10th
8. MATT KENSETH
Points: 5,015
Stats: 1 win, 11 top 10s, 3 DNFs
Best track: New Hampshire. Has six straight top-10 finishes.
Worst track: Homestead. Has never finished better than 17th in five starts.
Did you know? Has scored more points than any driver in the last four races.
Why he'll win: Combination of strong cars and one of the best pit crews could lead to another title.
Why he won't: Team has been strong since mid-June, and keeping the streak alive another 10 weeks might be too much.
Prediction: 5th
10. RYAN NEWMAN
Points: 5,005
Stats: No wins, 10 top 10s, 3 DNFs
Best track: Dover. Six top-10s, including three victories in seven starts.
Worst track: Talladega. Has finished outside the top 10 in five of seven races.
Did you know? Made the chase although he hasn't finished better than 12th in the last six races.
Why he'll win: Is strong at New Hampshire and Dover, the first two races in chase, and could build momentum to title.
Why he won't: Dodges struggle on big tracks. With six of the chase races on tracks 1.5 miles and longer, that's not a good sign.
Prediction: 8th
-- Dustin Long
Ryan McGee over at FoxSports.com has his own lineup.
Comments (2)
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There's a couple that I couldn't get to, Chad Knaus for one, as the press release from Hendrick showed, it's been an eventful week..we had time scheduled after the now infamous 20 second teleconference on Tuesday.. but, we all know now what was happening.. and Matt Borland and I simply ran out of time, as they were testing at Ky. on Tuesday and Wednesday.. but I did hear some "how did it go" NEXTEL talk between he and Larry Carter..maybe next week, depending on New Hampshire's results...
Posted on September 15, 2005 11:52 AM
The commentators at Bob Henry's place, when asked about the Chase, replied in unison "didn't they have a number one hit with 'Get It On' back in 1971?"
Posted on September 15, 2005 5:26 PM