The Chase
So who's going to win this thing?
I'm still on the fence about it. I'm down to two (no, not Gordon and Earnhardt Jr., as much as it pains me to write that).
Dustin Long, who's paid to meet actual deadlines, tells you who he thinks will win. It's ... oh, go read it for yourself.
Keep it mind that Dustin thought Biffle was going to win last year's Chase. It turned out to be a pretty good guess, and I think his pick this year will surprise some folks as to how right it will be.
But that's not the guy I'm picking.
More:
Drivers get funny on Letterman.
Thatsracin.com gets funny with the Chase. Next week: A touchdown is worth six points!
Dustin's driver capsules are after the jump.
1. MATT KENSETH
2006 stats: Four victories, 16 top-10 finishes, didn’t finish one race
Average finish in last 10 races: 9.5
Burning question: Can his pit crew improve? His unit is among the best, but it is not as dominant as before. Track position is critical, and every spot gained on pit road is that much more important during the Chase.
2. JIMMIE JOHNSON
2006 stats: Four victories, 18 top-10s, no DNFs
Average finish in last 10 races: 12.8
Burning question: What’s up with this team? Since his Indy victory, Johnson has not finished better than 10th. His fall from the points lead has led to questions about another slump just before the Chase.
3. KEVIN HARVICK
2006 stats: Three victories, 14 top-10s, no DNFs
Average finish in last 10 races: 6.5
Burning question: Can he win the Busch and Cup titles in the same year? He’s headed toward the Busch title, but must maintain the strong pace he has built in the last 10 races to complete the sweep.
4. KYLE BUSCH
2006 stats: One victory, 15 top-10s, one DNF
Average finish in last 10 races: 8.5
Burning question: Has he grown to be a champion? The second-year driver must overcome woes at some Chase tracks this year. He was 36th at Phoenix, 32nd at Talladega and 38th at Charlotte. If he repeats those numbers, he’ll be lucky to finish better than 10th.
5. DENNY HAMLIN
2006 stats: Two victories, 13 top-10s, one DNF
Average finish in last 10 races: 9.4
Burning question: Can a rookie really win the crown? He already has broken conventional wisdom — see his two victories at Pocono — and his organization won the championship last year. This could be his year.
6. DALE EARNHARDT JR.
2006 stats: One victory, 12 top-10s, three DNFs
Average finish in last 10 races: 15.6
Burning question: Is DEI ready to win a title? The company has improved its aero and engine programs, but will it be enough? Earnhardt has fallen out of two races because of engine woes. He has not had a dominant car on the 1.5-mile tracks, which make up half the Chase races.
7. MARK MARTIN
2006 stats: No victories, 12 top-10s, no DNFs
Average finish in last 10 races: 14.9
Burning question: Is this his last year? Stay tuned to the soap opera, but the bigger question is if he can win a title. He has finished second in the points race four times, and this might be his last chance to win it. It won’t be easy. Roush teams aren’t as strong as last year.
8. JEFF BURTON
2006 stats: No victories, 15 top-10s, one DNF
Average finish in last 10 races: 13.5
Burning question: Can he and his team figure out how to be fast late in a run and late in a race? The team has slipped some in the past few weeks. If the problem persists, he might have to settle for a top-five finish.
9. JEFF GORDON
2006 stats: Two victories, 12 top-10s, four DNFs
Average finish in last 10 races: 13.1
Burning question: Can he outrun Dale Earnhardt’s ghost? Gordon has 75 career victories, one behind Earnhardt. Another championship would leave Gordon two behind Earnhardt and Richard Petty, who won seven each.
10. KASEY KAHNE
2006 stats: Five victories, 14 top-10s, three DNFs
Average finish in last 10 races: 16.5
Burning question: Does Kahne really have a chance? With half the tracks 1.5 miles long, Kahne has a good shot. Only once this year has he finished outside the top five on a 1.5-mile track.
— Compiled by Dustin Long
Comments (1)
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Though I'm a JeffG fan, setting aside the emotional ties, I would have to say that Matt Kenseth has the best chance of winning the prize this year.
He's been consistent, and along with his four wins has on the average finished quite well (9.5 during the year)this year. Based on the fact that he knows how to win a championship (JeffG is the only other'n in the finals) I believe that his consistency will translate into another championship.
Posted on September 15, 2006 11:18 AM