News-Record.com

1. Stewart
2. Earnhardt
3. Biffle
4. Hamlin
5. Harvick
6. Burton
7. Jeff Gordon
8. Newman
9. Kyle Busch
10. Montoya (Just for the sake of argument)

What about low fan turn out at the track this past year!! How many times were there that the race was not a complete sell out? Could it be the traffic trying to get in and OUT of the event? Could it be the very high ticket prices for the Sunday events? Does NASCAR have an answer to any of this?

Question...Will FOX still be airing the first 10 or so races next year? What is going to happen to the NBC guys? Where will Benny and Wally wind up? So many questions and we are rapidly closing in on testing?

I can't believe Dustin was stupid enough to leave Matt Kenseth out of the top 10. F'n Rodney Dangerfield. I think Truex is another year or so away personally. I also wouldn't be surprised in the least if Hamlin suffers the same fate Edwards did in his second year and misses the Chase.

1. Stewart
2. Harvick
3. Earnhardt
4. Kenseth (only Rousch driver w/ same crew chief)
5. Edwards
6. Hamlin (no sophomore slump for this kid)
7. Johnson
8. Bush (Kurt puts the "Blue Deuce" in the chase)
9. Biffle
10.Burton
and by being inside 400 points:
11.Gordon
12.Truex

Stewart's just so strong at the end of the year, that if he's in the chase, he's got to be the favorite. He'll be the first to go into the last race with the Championship wrapped up. More than predicting the chase winner, I hope there's a few extra drivers in it in 2007.

Matt: I think Dustin sees (and my gut tells me the same thing) that Roush is stumbling a bit. They had a lousy (for them) 2006 after a great 2005. I don't think it's a matter of Roush falling off, but the 26 team is a mess, and the transition in the 6 was - let's be fair - bungled. I suspect the two struggling teams will drag down the three teams that have a shot (Biffle, Kenseth, Edwards).

Of course, DEI and RCR and maybe Hendrick, too, were so focused on the Chase that they're behind getting ready for 2007. Of that group, Hendrick is big enough (and good enough, frankly) to catch up.

My Truex guess is simply that - a wild guess. Remember, no one gave Jeff Burton a chance at the start of last year, and everyone was hot on Biffle and Edwards and Stewart. I figure I'd get out front on the Dark Horse Express.

Point taken John... but three drivers have made all three Chases thus far and Kenseth is one of them (with Johnson and Martin). The 6 team I think will be lucky to stay in the top 30 with Ragan just because of the inexperience. I also noticed no Kyle Busch, which is kind of surprising. But, didn't we say the same thing about Carl Edwards about not having a sophomore slump? I'm calling right now that the 11 team misses the Chase. I guess we'll see what happens, it's awfully early to make these sort of predictions.

Your right, Matt -- it's probably way too early to be talking about any of this.

But what has been so weird about the Chase is some of the results. If you had said at the start of 2005 that neither Junior or Jeff Gordon would make the Chase, you would have been barred from every track on the circuit. Same with Tony Stewart at the start of last season. So why not pick against Matt Kenseth in 2007?

I think about the only safe bet for 2007 is that the Chase will not include any Toyota drivers, Kyle Petty or Jason Leffler.

Why single out Kenseth and not Harvick? Or even a champ missing for the second year in a row? I don't think next year will be like any other year simply because of the COT. That thing is going to mess with everything.

Matt (and everyone else) -- Dustin has emerged from his offseason hibernation and relayed this message on his picks:

"Is it too early to pick who will do what in 2007? Maybe, but that's the fun of it. It's a look ahead. I'll make another top 10 prediction before Daytona and I'm sure it will look a bit different.
"As for Kenseth, yes, it's a gamble not to pick him in the top 10. Point is I think the Car of Tomorrow is really going to mess up somebody most people would expect to make the chase. For now, I choose Kenseth. Yes, he had a very good 2006 but I wasn't impressed with how the team finished. They were lost on the 1.5-mile tracks. It's been a few years since I've heard Kenseth and crew chief Robbie Reiser so preplexed on the radio and after races.
"How many times do you see a guy make a charge at the end of the season and carry it through to the early part of the next season? Well, I'm looking at the reverse. Let's remember a strong start is key to get into the Chase. Seven of the Chase drivers were in the top 10 after four races. Harvick was the lowest at the time at 23rd, so there can be some hope but the point is a slow start makes it much more difficult to make the chase.
"Certainly someone can say, 'Well, Kenseth averaged a 10.7th-place finish in the Chase and was sixth in the season finale at Homestead, a 1.5-mile track.' They'd be right. Still, that team was so much better than what it showed. At times, I think they pulled out great finishes because other teams faltered and they slowly moved up (still they had to be good enough to take advantage of those situations). I just was surprised at how confused they were by their struggles for many races. If they don't reverse that trend, they'll be trouble."

And now that Dustin mentions it, there was some fundamental change to the cars back in 2000 or 2001 or thereabouts - maybe something like a lowered spoiler or something that made the cars really loose. IIRC, the guys with dirt-track experience didn't mind it, and drivers like Junior and Kenseth who grew up driving stock cars on paved tracks had a time getting used to it. Maybe the COT won't have much impact. But I suspect it will -- it's running in 16 (I think) races next season. I probably need to factor that into my 2007 picks somehow, but it's hard to say how because no one knows how the COT will race.