My pick for 2007
It's that time of year again when so-called experts (I use the term ironically in my case) study the stats, mull over the facts, create detailed comparisons then pull it out of their rear ends because some editor wants it now.
By "it" I'm referring to "my pick to win the 2007 Nextel Cup." And, yes, I know the Daytona 500 starts in about four hours. I waited as long as I could. Sue me.
This year there's no clear favorite. USA Today did its annual writers poll, and the SCEs were all over the map: A few liked Johnson, a few liked Stewart, a few (including Dustin Long) picked Harvick, some had Junior. There's even a Kenseth, Biffle and Busch the elder in there.
I think it might be easier to work backwards on this one.
The first one's easy. If you missed the Daytona 500, you're out of title contention.
Same with Toyota. No Toyota driver has a shot. The Toyota teams are either too new, too wracked by scandal, too old or too Bill Davis (though Blaney has been driving well recently. Hmmm.) Count them out.
Single-car teams don't have a chance. Never have, never will, not in today's climate.
Sorry, Mark Martin fans, but you're guy won't be in the Chase. No ride-sharing allowed.
And I don't see Jimmie Johnson repeating. He gets better every year, but hardly anyone in pro or college sports repeats these days. There's too much pressure, and the gap to those behind him is Daytona thin. (Think of the lead pack at Daytona - 30 cars within 2 seconds of each other. It's like that.)
The Car of Tomorrow is where this thing is going to be won. There are 16 COT races, including five in the Chase. Only the big teams (Roush, Hendrick, Gibbs, maybe RCR) have the people and resources to have done any real testing. Give them the edge.
Moreover, the COT will reward experience and talent. If you can drive, you can drive the COT. If you can't, you won't. It will be the great equalizer of the 2007 season, and the drivers who figure it out first will be way ahead of those who don't. Someone like Kyle Busch has talent in spurts, but he doesn't have the experience (or patience) to make the COT work consistently.
So that's why the title chase will come down to Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon. They're both in the 500. They don't drive Toyotas. They're employed by big teams. And they can both flat-out drive whatever you give them.
But there's one other thing that's in play here. That's desire. I don't know if Gordon has it any more. He has 4 Cup trophies, 75 career wins, a supermodel wife, a baby on the way, more money than God himself. What more does he need?
Stewart has a lot of drive, especially after he whiffed last season. He's definitely got talent - he's arguably the best driver in the field. (Montoya will rank up there by season's end - you watch.) And he has just two Cup crowns.
But the guy I think can pull it off is ... Kurt Busch. He has experience, talent and a better-than-average team. He can drive restrictor plates and short tracks, and I'm guessing the new Dodge nose will help on the intermediate tracks. I think he has the drive. Of all of the recent Cup winners, his in 2004 was the biggest fluke, and I think he's really eager to prove that it wasn't. The end of 2005 was an embarassment - I think he wants race fans to know that he's bigger than that. Last year was a struggle to adjust to a new team. Every driver goes through that, and now that's out of the way.
Make sure to bookmark this post and come visit in November. (I prefer praises of my NASCAR acument, but taunts and cracks at my complete inability to see in February that
In the meantime, who's your pick? That's what comments are for.
Comments (7)
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My pick is Kevin Harvick! Oh wait, the race ended over an hour ago. Well does it still count anyway? LOL
So what did you think about that finish? I'm sure there will be many debates about it.
Posted on February 18, 2007 8:59 PM
Greg Biffle would be my outside pick. He had a lot of good races last year that just went bad! How many races did he lead only to fall victim to engine failure or crashes? I think the 16 team wants to put 2006 where it belongs, in the past and prove that it was just a case of extremely bad luck. I would also not count out Jeff Burton and the 31 team. They had a good run last year, and if they can continue with that pace then 2007 could see more of the 31 in victory lane. I also think Bobby Labonte could sneak in there, if not for a championship, then at least be in the chase. Team Petty has had an improving program, and with the addition of Labonte last year they made large improvements. Look for some good stuff out of the 43 car this year...it has been too long that this team has laid dorment and I think they are on the move...
Now come November, I too could be looking back at this and saying, "What was I thinking?"
Posted on February 19, 2007 12:19 AM
Though my man is JeffG and I somewhat like Kenseth, I'm going with Jimmie Johnson. I feel strongly he's going to twopeat. Great all round team, great engines (Mark Martin's performance yesterday attest to that), smart, and an excellent driver. I believe he's got the package.
I was surprised JeffG finished as well as he did in light of the crap he was driving.
Posted on February 19, 2007 9:09 AM
John,
I think Kurt Busch proved yesterday that he's driving waaaay over his head at Daytona yesterday. It's not just that he was blocking erratically within the first 20 laps, I just don't know how he managed to slam into Stewart on the straightaway. He's much improved--and I'm not just referring to his pinned-back ears--but he's still out of his element on the superspeedways.
As for Gordon, I have to take exception that he's a driver "who can flat out drive whatever you give (him)." He's been in top-notch equipment almost from the start of his career. More than 350 people work in the HMS garage? Judging by the fact that Jimmy "Crash" Johnson has won a championship in a Hendrick car, I think a trained monkey could win a substantial number of races in a Hendrick car. After all, Brian Vickers won there. I'm willin to be he never will win again in Nextel Cup.
I'm betting Stewart can win the championship this year. That is, he can win it if he takes his Paxil often enough to avoid throwing away three or four races in order to punish some other drive--and damage the 20 car--in order to teach a lesson about how drivers are supposed to behave when Stewart is nearby.
Otherwise, I think it will be Gordon. I hope Earndhardt Jr. can make a strong run at the end of the year.
Posted on February 19, 2007 11:14 AM
Antonette - I think Harvick's a good pick, and that was before yesterday's race. I just can't agree with Dustin Long, our racin' writer, at least not on this. Besides, he's never picked the winner in eight years of trying, and Dustin will be the first to tell you he's counting on extending his streak.
Jon - What was up with your man JJ yesterday? He was nowhere. (And, yeah, Norskar, I might have to eat my words about Gordon's ability to drive anything on four wheels. He can wheel stock cars and sports cars and F1 cars, but he didn't have much of an answer for that piece of junk he had yesterday.)
Chris - As much as I like Petty, they just don't have what it takes to compete these days. If you ranked the top 10 Cup teams, I'm not sure PE would be in there. Kyle's six-week vacation to work for TNT this summer is a bad omen.
Norskar - Kurt's actually done well on the plate tracks. (He has 10 top 5s in 25 plate races - he's very feast or famine at Dayonta, but he's very very good Dega.) That and the short tracks are the best part of Penske's program. (They get crushed on the mile-and-a-halfs.) I was surprised that he and Stewart were both being so boneheaded early on yesterday, but that's how they are. That's why they both have championships, but it's also why they both missed the Chase last year. Both of those guys are incredibly infuriating.
Also: Did you notice how neither Busch nor Stewart tore the other guy a new one? I figured one of them would be revenge-vowing hot, but they were both on their meds. Weird.
Posted on February 19, 2007 11:41 AM
John,
Remember JJ had a bad race in 2006 at Daytona, I don't believe he finished the race, yet still recovered and ran strong enough thru the season to win the championship.
Though JeffG started in 42nd, struggled all day in a bad car, he still managed to end up in 10th which is better than he did in the 2006 Daytona race where he placed 26th. So I would say the guy still has the ability to make a good thing out of a bad situation.
Posted on February 20, 2007 10:00 AM
John,
Where is my brain today, sorry JJ had a perfect race at Daytona in 2006. Don't know what I was thinking.
Maybe he'll rebound and still win it all.
Posted on February 20, 2007 10:02 AM