Your 2007 Nextel Cup champ will be ...
.. what, you think I have a crystal ball?
Dustin Long does. His 2007 pick: Kevin Harvick. (And here are the 11 other drivers he thinks will make the Chase.)
Me, I'm not convinced. Harvick's a good pick, don't get me wrong -- he's a good driver on a good team. But the lesson that Roush Racing learned last year is this: If all five of your cars are in the Chase this year, you're not getting ready for next year. I suspect the Childress crew got bogged down with having two of its three cars in the 2006 Chase. But so did DEI (Junior), Hendrick (Johnson, Gordon and Lil' Busch), Gibbs (Hamlin) and Evernham (Kahne), and Roush did have two (Martin and Kenseth). I expect a lot of those guys not to be back this year.
History hasn't been so kind to repeat Chasers. In 2005, seven of the 10 Chasers from 2004 made it. Last year, only three of the 2005 Chasers - Johnson, Kenseth and Martin - made the 2006 edition. The safe pick is always to look at last year's 10 top, shuffle them around, drop out a couple (Martin, because he changed teams, and Jeff Burton, because he drove out of his mind last year), add in a couple of folks who came close last year (Tony Stewart, duh, and, oh, I dunno, Carl Edwards). Voila, a top 10 (or 12).
Of course, if you had taken that approach last year, you would have ended up looking smart in preseason but silly after the 26th race at Richmond. At this time last year, Tony Stewart was a lock to repeat as champion, there was no way that Roush wasn't going to get in at least four of his cars, and Jeff Burton, Jeff Burton ... I think I've heard that name somewhere.
It's definitely an inexact science. Just ask Dustin - he always reminds me before he files his annual list that he has never ever in nine years of doing this picked the winner correctly.
As for me, I need a couple more days. In the meantime, share your picks with the class. I promise I won't read them before I make mine.